An empirical characterization of the effects of public debt on economic growth

Based on a data set of 115 economies, this article empirically investigates the relation between public debt and economic growth. Using the World Bank’s classification for income groups, we initially find that those countries that present the lowest public debt are characterized by the highest economic growth, while the smallest growth rates are associated with the highest public debt. Nevertheless, this conclusion is tempered when we analyse the countries by income level: low-income countries have a different behaviour with respect to lower-middle, upper-middle and high-income countries. When using the IMF’s country classification, the results do not suggest a clear pattern in the public debt–economic growth nexus across different countries, but indicate a heterogeneous relationship between such key macroeconomic variables.     

External debt and economic reform: does a pain reliever delay the necessary treatment?

Recent literature argues that conflict in shifting adjustment costs between different socioeconomic groups delays necessary reforms and finds that such reforms often follow economic crises. This paper expands these models by including external borrowing by the private sector and shows that this may lead to a further delay in economic reform. Empirical evidence based on a large panel of developing and emerging economies supports this argument and shows that the result is slower economic growth. External financing sometimes acts like a “pain reliever”, postponing the much needed “treatment” of a “sick” economy by reform.     

绩效预算改革的战略步骤设想与路径选择

绩效评价在预算改革中具有重要作用：可增强政府的责任心,改善政府与公众的关系;同时也有助于提高财政资金使用效率。探讨我国绩效预算改革战略步骤,强调在预算改革中引入绩效评价必要性,并探讨绩效改革的路径,是当前学术界和业内人士的一项重要职责。     

我国地方政府债务管理的问题及对策

由于地方政府债务规模不断扩大,债务管理过程中存在的问题日益凸显。在阐述地方政府债务规模及结构的基础上,提出地方政府债务管理中存在的问题,并有针对性地提出加强地方政府债务管理的具体建议。     

An Exploration of the Greek Shadow Economy: Can Its Transfer into the Official Economy Provide Economic Relief Amid the Crisis?

We explore the determinants of the Greek shadow economy, its interaction with the official economy, and its relationship with corruption. In doing so, we undertake — for the first time — an interdisciplinary review of economic and political studies on the size and determinants of the shadow economy, tax evasion, undeclared work and, moreover, of their relation with corruption in Greece in order to reveal the extent and complexity of these phenomena. We estimate the size and determinants of the shadow economy via a multiple-indicators-multiple-causes (MIMIC) approach. Our findings indicate that the important determinants are factors related to macroeconomic conditions, such as unemployment and GDP growth, and institutional factors, such as tax morale and the rule of law. We also indicate that the shadow economy and corruption are complementary and that the official and the shadow economy substitute each other over the business cycle. An adoption of policy based on these findings would lead to a successful transfer of part of the shadow economy to the official economy, would boost government revenue, and would eventually lead the Greek economy out of the depression that emerged as a result of the sovereign debt crisis.     

政府职能部门与事业组织的效率边界和预算资助问题

政策预算通常称之为部门预算.而公共预算中的"公共"范围大于政府公共部门中的"公共"范围.后者有明确的政府组织边界,而前者却包括与政府预算有关的部分,边界是难以确定的.这个难点也就是政府职能部门和事业组织之间效率边界决定的难点;同时也是公共预算效率资助的难点.本文从政府职能部门和事业组织之间的效率边界问题、事业组织的效率问题和政府职能部门对事业组织效率资助问题三个方面展开讨论.     

经济发展、老龄化与政府债务累积的加速效应

本文基于世界63个经济体1996—2016年的面板数据,运用静态、动态门槛回归模型研究了老龄化对政府债务规模的加速效应。研究表明,从长期来看,老龄化不仅能对政府债务产生显著的正向冲击,而且对于相对发达的经济体而言,老龄化对政府债务累积的影响更大。文章政策含义是,为了减缓加速效应,一方面我们需要通过提高全要素生产率、优化税收结构、完善国有资本划转等方式保持政府收入稳健增长,另一方面需要打破养老支出刚性,使其增长幅度与经济增速和政府收入增速相匹配。     

政府支出规模、经济波动与经济增长——基于省级面板数据的实证分析

笔者在Barro的政府规模与经济增长理论基础上,引入经济波动以反映政府支出规模对经济活动的干预,利用中国28个省(市、自治区)1979年～2008年的面板数据,检验了政府支出规模与经济波动对经济增长的影响。研究结果发现,我国地方政府支出规模与经济波动对区域经济增长都产生了负效应,且经济波动比政府支出规模对区域经济增长的负效应更大。因此,政府在追求经济高速增长的同时,要更加注重保持经济增长的稳定性。     

关于我国政府投资乘数效应的探讨

应对金融危机的4万亿政府投资计划目前到了收尾盘点阶段,如此规模的政府投资除了满足社会公共品需要外,其对经济发展的影响方向和影响程度如何是大众关心的重要问题,因而关于政府投资对经济增长的影响的研究有很大的现实意义。政府投资乘数大小作为衡量政府投资效果的重要依据和基本工具,对其进行具体研究有利于增强和改进政府投资对经济增长所带来的影响。通过单位根检验、协整分析等路径并运用生产函数法对1998年以来我国政府投资乘数效应进行了实证分析,结果显示,政府投资对经济增长有较大的拉动作用,但同时也发现政府投资产出弹性小于非政府投资的产出弹性,在一定范围内同等数量政府投资对经济增长的贡献度低于非政府投资。     

Foreign debt and economic growth

This paper empirically examines the relationship between government foreign debt and the growth rate of per capita GDP based on a total sample of 77 countries, as well as sub‐samples of various regions. Cross‐sectional estimates of the coefficient of foreign debt based on the total sample have a negative sign, but are not always statistically significant. Available data from African countries indicate that foreign debt and the growth rate of per capita GDP were negatively related at a high level of significance. For industrialized and Latin American sub‐samples, this relationship is negative but statistically insignificant. The sub‐sample Asian and other developing countries show a positive but insignificant relationship. JEL classification: F34, H6, O23.     

中国的金融发展与经济增长:基于微观数据的实证研究

通过对1993—2001年中国金融发展与经济增长关系的实证研究可以发现,即使对于上市公司,银行贷款仍然构成其最重要的外部融资渠道,并且支撑着企业活跃的投资活动。然而,企业获得贷款的结构不合理,对贷款的利用效率日益下降,除了贷款以外,金融体系所提供的其他金融工具的种类和数量都明显不足。这说明银行业从提供融资支持上推动了整体经济的发展,但在优化资本流向、提高资源配置效率方面的功能尚不完善。     

The relationship between Turkey’s foreign debt and economic growth: an asymmetric causality analysis

Tackling foreign debt that arises as a result of limited and ineffective use of resources is an item that remains on the agenda particularly for developing countries. In this study, we examine the foreign debt debates to date in terms of economic growth and using the time series for the period 2003Q1 to 2017Q1. We used unit root tests to determine the maximum integration degree of series, and we conducted causality analysis. We found a causality relationship between net foreign debt stock and economic growth in causality analyses performed for Turkey. The empirical results of this study indicate that there is a causality relationship, including both positive and negative aspects, between net foreign debt stock and economic growth. The results of our testing showed a significant causal relationship between the variables.     

腐败与经济增长的关系实证研究——基于多国面板数据的分析

本文利用多国面板数据实证研究了腐败与经济增长的关系,得出以下结论:一是对于发达国家,腐败不利于经济增长;二是对于发展中国家,一开始腐败对经济增长是有促进作用的,但腐败与经济增长之间是一种倒U型的关系,腐败对经济增长的促进作用只是暂时的;三是对于我国,改革开放的深入,市场体制的完善,政府管制的减少,腐败的负面影响已经超过了正面影响,目前处于倒U型的右半部分,即腐败不利于我国经济增长。最后,本文给出了治理我国腐败的对策建议。     

Is corruption grease,grit or a gamble? Corruption increases variance of productivity across countries

The effect of corruption on economic growth has attracted interest in empirical development economics. The conventional view of corruption as impediment for growth has been challenged by the ‘grease-on-the-wheels’ hypothesis. We take a new perspective on the issue and suggest corruption as macro risk, referred to as a ‘gamble’ hypothesis. Using cross-country data and two alternative indicators of corruption, we find corruption to be a significant driver of heteroscedasticity in total productivity. This supports the new gamble hypothesis. We also note some misleading interpretations in the previously published frontier applications. To avoid these shortcomings, we apply a flexible semi-nonparametric estimator.     

How does economic transition breed corruption?

Based on the existing literature, this paper discusses the relationship between economic transition and corruption, and argues that economic transition is one of the main roots of the spread of corruption in transitional China. It divides economic transition into four parts, and examines various channels by which economic transition breeds corruption opportunities. By applying the case statistical analysis method to analyze 594 major corruption cases, it finds the most corruption-prone areas, and provides some empirical evidence on the existence of such channels.     

Relative State Autonomy and National Economic Planning

Economic security is the protection from hardship causing economic losses. Such losses can occur due to unemployment, medical emergencies, and other unforeseen events. To measure how well prepared families are for these events, we calculate a series of middle class security indicators, specifically the share of families who have enough financial wealth to weather an unemployment spell, those who can cover a medical emergency, those can handle both unemployment and a medical emergency and those who can sustain an emergency that requires three months of income. Based on data from the Federal Reserve, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, we find that economic security steadily improved in the 1990s, but sharply declined after 2000. Within 2-3 years, all gains of the 1990s were erased due to a debt boom fuelled by weak income growth and sharp price increases.