Is aid for trade effective? A panel quantile regression approach

This paper investigates whether Aid for Trade (AfT) leads to greater exports in recipient countries. Using panel quantile regression and two strategies to address endogeneity (AfT lagged by two periods and dynamic OLS), our results suggest that total AfT disbursements promote the export of goods and services mainly for the lower quantiles (0.1, 0.25, 0.50) of the conditional distribution of exports. Hence, countries that export less in volume are those benefitting most from AfT. This effect is mainly driven by the impact on exports of goods rather than on that of services. We also investigate which types of AfT are effective when endogeneity is controlled for. The main results show that whereas aid to improve trade policy and regulation is associated with higher exports for all quantiles, aid used to build infrastructure is found to affect exports at only the lowest tails of the distribution (0.10–0.35) and aid to build productive capacity is generally more effective for the lower quantiles of the export distribution (0.10–0.50). In contrast, aid disbursed for general budget support (an untargeted type of aid) is not associated with greater export levels. This finding holds irrespective of the quantile.     

Aid for trade and international transactions in goods and services

The empirical literature on aid for trade (AfT) mainly considers its effects on merchandise trade and investment. In this paper, we provide an in‐depth analysis of the relationship between AfT and trade in services using both aggregate and bilateral data. We find a statistically weak effect of AfT on both goods and services trade in our aggregate analysis once we account for endogeneity in the AfT–trade relationship. In contrast, the bilateral analysis suggests that AfT, in particular that allocated to services activities, especially economic infrastructure, has a positive effect on recipients’ merchandise exports to donor countries. This novel finding is robust across different lag structures and provides evidence of complementarities between services AfT and goods trade.     

The new goods margin in new markets

We analyze the role of the new goods margin in the Baltic countries’ exports and imports growth during the 1995–2008 period. Using the methodology developed in Kehoe and Ruhl (2013), we define the set of least-traded goods as those that account for the lowest 10% of total exports and imports in 1995, and then trace its growth in several markets including the Baltics’ main trade partners, the European Union and Russia. We find that, on average, by 2008 least-traded goods accounted for nearly 50% of total Baltic exports to their main trade partners. Moreover, we find that increases in the share of least-traded exports coincided with the timing of the trade liberalization reforms implemented by the Baltic countries. Least-traded imports also grew at robust rates, but their growth was lower than that of exports, accounting for slightly less than a quarter of total imports, that is, about half of the exports value. Moreover, we find that the shares of least-traded imports from the EU 15 and from Russia started diverging around the time the Baltic countries joined the EU, with the EU 15 share increasing and the Russian one declining. We also find that the Baltics’ share of least-traded exports outpaced that of other economies in Central and Eastern Europe. Finally, exports of new goods from the Baltic countries suffered noticeably during the Global Financial Crisis. After the crisis ended, the restart in new goods exports growth displayed mixed patterns.     

Antidumping and heterogeneous quality adjustment of multi-product firms: Evidence from Chinese exporters

This paper investigates the effect of antidumping on multi-product firms’ adjustment in export quality using highly disaggregated Chinese exports data at the firm-product-country level for the period 2000–2014. In response to antidumping, firms tend to upgrade the quality of their exports for targeted products in affected markets by product adjustment, with this effect being more pronounced for firms with ex ante higher product quality. Antidumping induces resource reallocation across firms for a product such that higher-quality firms upgrade the quality while lower-quality firms are unaffected, and reallocation across products within a firm with the quality of products of higher competency increasing more substantially under antidumping policy. Our paper contributes to our understanding on how a multi-product firm adjusts by reallocating resources across products in the face of trade policy shocks.     

The impact of trade promotion services on Canadian exporter performance

From 1999 to 2006, Canadian firms successfully diversified their exports to destinations beyond the United States while smaller firms increased their share in total exports. Both are explicit aims of the Trade Commissioner Service export promotion program. Exploiting assumptions from the treatment effects literature, we identify a causal, export‐boosting effect. In contrast with existing evidence for Latin American countries, the intensive margin effect—higher exports to existing product‐destination markets—dominates. Effects at the extensive margin—exporting more products to more destinations—are smaller and sensitive to identification assumptions. We interpret this evidence in light of trade models with heterogeneous firms.     

Does German Development Aid Promote German Exports?

Abstract. This paper uses a static and dynamic gravity model of trade to investigate the link between German development aid and exports from Germany to the recipient countries. The findings indicate that, in the long run, German aid is associated with an increase in exports of goods that is larger than the aid flow, with a point estimate of 140% of the aid given. In addition, the evolution of the estimated coefficients over time shows an effect that is consistently positive but that oscillates over time. Interestingly, after a decrease in the 1990s, the estimated coefficients of the effect of aid on trade show a steady increase in the period between 2001 and 2005. The paper distinguishes among recipient countries and finds that the return on aid measured by German exports is higher for aid to countries considered 'strategic aid recipients' by the German government. We also find some evidence that aid given by other EU members reduces German exports.     

贸易自由化是如何影响我国出口产品质量的？*--基于贸易政策不确定性下降的视角

传统理论认为贸易自由化会促进出口产品的质量升级,但我国加入W TO后的情况却并非如此。文章基于贸易政策不确定性的视角,利用我国加入W TO前后美国对我国产品进行关税调整这一自然实验,通过倍差法分析了贸易自由化对我国出口产品质量的影响。研究表明：（1）在贸易自由化的过程中,贸易政策不确定性的下降会拉低我国的出口产品质量,且这一结论在改变质量测度方法、控制成本效应以及使用不同的产品属性、贸易对象和样本的情况下依然稳健;（2）贸易政策不确定性主要是通过广延边际上的质量调整降低了我国出口产品的总体质量,即在贸易政策不确定性下降幅度越大的产品中,有越多的生产低质量产品的企业进入出口市场;（3）在集约边际上,存续企业并未针对贸易政策不确定性的下降做出及时的产品质量调整,从而无法改变我国的产品质量在短期内下降的趋势。文章为我国如何在推行贸易自由化的同时实现出口产品质量升级提供了启示。     

Extensive and Intensive Margins of Exports and Labor Heterogeneity

This paper investigates how changes in skilled and unskilled labor supply affect different margins of exports. Using bilateral trade data in manufacturing sectors of 34 countries from 1995 to 2010, we find that most of the impact of skilled labor on exports goes through the intensive margin, whereas most of the effect of unskilled labor works through the extensive margin. These outcomes result from the impact of labor skill composition on the productivity cut‐off of exporters. We also find that the impact of skilled and unskilled labor on trade margins depends on the income level of countries and on the type of products. The results indicate that the effect of skilled labor is greater for low‐income countries and differentiated products, while that of unskilled labor is greater for high‐income countries and homogeneous products.     

Recent developments in EC USSR commercial and economic relations

Conclusion Trade with the Soviet Union represents only a small part of total Community trade (3.5 % of EC imports and 2.7 % of EC exports in 1990). EC imports from the Soviet Union increased moderately between 1989 and 1990 as well as between the first six months of 1990 and the corresponding period of 1991, whilst EC exports decreased sharply as a result of hard currency shortage in the Soviet Union.The CMEA and Soviet disintegration processes will lead to a substantial reorientation of trade flows. This development has already begun with large increases of trade between the EC and the Central and Eastern European countries.International assistance to the USSR mainly consists of export credits. Community assistance involves a large proportion of grants and technical assistance. The cost of assistance measures envisaged so far remains limited for Western countries.The economic effects of assistance would be enhanced if effective coordination was implemented among the providers. Adequate mechanisms such as triangular operations or the untying of assistance would be required in order to avoid crowding out traditional suppliers from Soviet markets.     

Why Do the Gains from Trade Reform Vary Between Countries?

This paper assesses, both theoretically and empirically, the determinants of differential gains from trade policy reform across countries. The theoretical model shows that asymmetrical features of the world economy, including the relative size of the differentiated products sector in each country, the dominance of domestic markets by indigenous producers, trade costs, and the relative importance of exports, all play an important role. Results from a multi-region computable general equilibrium model substantiate the proposition that the initial pattern of asymmetry is relatively more important than scale and varietal effects, despite the fact that the latter have received more attention in the literature.     

The trade creation effect of immigrants: evidence from the remarkable case of Spain

Abstract This paper investigates the immigration‐trade link using data on individual exporting transactions and immigrants in Spanish provinces between 1995 and 2008. We quantify the impact of new immigrants on the extensive margin (number of transactions) and intensive margin (average value per transaction) of exports. We find that immigrants significantly increase exports and that the effect is almost entirely due to an increase in the extensive margin. Consistent with the idea that immigrants reduce the fixed cost of exporting, we find stronger effects for differentiated goods and for countries that are culturally distant from Spain.     

Law, trade, and development

This paper uses a Ricardian model to generate predictions about the influence of institutions on trade in differentiated (complex) and commoditized (simple) products and then uses a rich international trade data set for empirical tests. The model draws the distinction between the role of international transaction costs and domestic production costs in the trade of complex and simple products. The effects of institutions predicted by the model are identified with a three-step estimation procedure. We find that when countries have low quality institutions, institutional reform primarily influences production costs and has little influence on the volume of trade. Institutional reform, however, increases the diversity of exports in complex goods markets. Conversely, in countries with more developed institutions, institutional reform primarily influences transaction costs and is associated with gains in the volume and the diversity of complex exports.     

Kosovo – EU trade relations: a dynamic panel poisson approach

To inform policymaking following trade liberalization between Kosovo and the EU within the framework of the Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA), we specify a gravity model to investigate Kosovo’s trade in goods with 28 EU countries over the period 2005–2013. We reconcile competing methodological requirements by using a dynamic Poisson approach to estimation. Together, persistent trade patterns and an unfavourable combination of demand and supply elasticities suggest that trade liberalization in isolation is not sufficient to promote exports but may need to be incorporated within a wider policy and institutional framework. In addition, our findings suggest that trade costs should be a particular focus for policy: distance has a big negative influence on Kosovo’s exports to EU countries; while diaspora communities promote Kosovo’s exports to EU markets, most likely because they offset trade costs.     

Does the role of observer countries in the regional trade agreement matter for intra-regional trade ?

This article investigates the effects of trade by observed economies on the intra-regional trade by South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) members using Poison pseudo maximum likelihood estimator (PPML) gravity models with panel data over the period 2008–2014. Eight SAARC members and eight observed countries, including the EU, are analysed in capturing the trade effect of observed economies on intra-regional trade in SAARC. This article provides an empirical measure of observers’ trade, FDI and Official development assistance (ODA) with SAARC if the exports and imports of observers to/from SAARC have positive or negative signs for intra-regional exports and imports. The results show that the exports and imports of observers to SAARC members have positive effects on bilateral exports among the members. The FDI of observers reduces the bilateral intra-imports in SAARC and ODA also has a negative effect on bilateral exports among the members. These results imply that the imports by SAARC members from observer countries increase intra-regional trade in the region. The FDI and ODA increase and decrease intra-regional trade in SAARC, respectively, implying that the policies for both FDI inflow from observers and efficient aid management are needed to increase regional welfare. The study also recommends that trade between SAARC members and its observers help to increase intra-regional trade in SAARC.     

Recent trends in trade among developing countries

The paper presents the early results of empirical work on trade among developing countries. The main conclusion is that non-fuel trade among developing countries, excluding capital surplus oil exporters, remained a remarkably stable share of their total trade between 1963 and 1977. This constancy does, however, conceal two interesting opposing trends: The share of manufactures exported to developing countries has been falling sharply, while that of non-fuel primary commodities has been rising, the latter largely because of the demands of the newly industrializing countries. Nevertheless, the dynamism of manufactures has meant that they make up an increasing share of trade among developing countries. Four particular points emerge from the evidence: (i) there is no obvious sign of a bias against trade among developing countries, except whatever effect their own commercial policies may have; (ii) the more inward-looking countries tend to send a higher proportion of their exports to other developing countries and regional integration strengthens this effect; (iii) exports of manufactures to developing countries are much more capital intensive than those to industrialized countries; and (iv) exports to developing country markets may not be the vital first stage for capital goods exports that is sometimes supposed.     

中国和印度的贸易扩张:威胁还是机遇?

本文探讨了中印之间以及中印与其它国家之间的贸易竞争性和互补性。研究结果表明:(1)印度在第三方市场,尤其在服装、纺织品和皮革制品等方面,面临来自中国的强烈竞争;(2)中印之间的贸易增长具有一定潜力;(3)中国在中等技术行业对东亚各国、美国和大多数欧洲国家构成挑战,而印度主要对周边的南亚国家构成威胁;(4)在贸易的互补性方面,中国和印度大幅上升的进口为美国、欧洲和东亚一些国家,尤其是日本、韩国、马来西亚、新加坡和泰国的出口提供了扩张的机会。同时我们发现中国的出口结构正在发生变化,技术密集型和高科技产品的出口份额在增加,这表明从长期来看,由中国劳动密集型产品出口带来的挑战将会削弱。本文探讨了中印之间以及中印与其它国家之间的贸易竞争性和互补性。研究结果表明:(1)印度在第三方市场,尤其在服装、纺织品和皮革制品等方面,面临来自中国的强烈竞争;(2)中印之间的贸易增长具有一定潜力;(3)中国在中等技术行业对东亚各国、美国和大多数欧洲国家构成挑战,而印度主要对周边的南亚国家构成威胁;(4)在贸易的互补性方面,中国和印度大幅上升的进口为美国、欧洲和东亚一些国家,尤其是日本、韩国、马来西亚、新加坡和泰国的出口提供了扩张的机会。同时我们发现中国的出口结构正在发生变化,技术密集型和高科技产品的出口份额在增加,这表明从长期来看,由中国劳动密集型产品出口带来的挑战将会削弱。     

Whose policy uncertainty affects commodity trade between Australia and the United States?

Recent studies are assessing the impact of news-based policy uncertainty measure on trade flows between countries. In this paper we add to this new literature by investigating the symmetric and asymmetric effects of Australian policy uncertainty index and the U.S. index on trade flows of 63 two-digit industries that trade between the two countries. When we estimated a symmetric and linear model for each industry, we found short-run effects of both uncertainty measures on 30% of the industries' trade flows. However, this number increased to 70% when an asymmetric and nonlinear model was estimated. The long-run effects of both policy uncertainty followed similar pattern. Less than 10% of trade was affected by the estimates of the linear models. However, estimates of the nonlinear models predicted that 41.20% (26.53%) of the U.S. exports to Australia was affected by the U.S. uncertainty (Australian uncertainty). As for the Australian exports to the United States, 6.72% (5.5%) of its exports were affected by the changes in the U.S. policy uncertainty (Australian uncertainty). In almost all industries, increased uncertainty was found to hurt the trade and decreased uncertainty was found to boost it at different rate or asymmetrically. In sum, the U.S. and Australian policy uncertainty measure affects U.S. exports to Australia much more than they affect Australian exports to the United States.     

Buyer Concentration in Markets for Developing Country Exports

The authors explore the implications of buyer concentration in markets for primary commodity exports of developing countries. Simple partial equilibrium models of monopsony and oligopsony show that the best available policy for the exporting country may be to tax exports so as to extract some of the profits of the monopsonist, even though doing so will actually worsen the distortion caused by the buyer's market power. They also explore the general equilibrium implications of these results for factor markets and for patterns of trade.     

Austerity and Exports

Recent papers have focused attention on the potential for expansionary austerity (i.e. that cutting budget deficits may increase growth in the short run). In this paper we investigate the impact of fiscal consolidation on trade using bilateral trade data. The use of bilateral trade data allows us to demonstrate three novel empirical results. First, while fiscal consolidation is associated with an increase in own‐country exports, it is also correlated to an equal extent with a decrease in foreign‐country exports (i.e. imports); indeed, simultaneous austerity has no statistically significant impact on bilateral trade. Second, the positive effect of austerity on exports disappears when trading partners share a common currency. Third, the increase in exports as a result of austerity is associated entirely with an increase in the range of goods exported (the extensive margin), at the expense of trade volume among existing trade relationships (the intensive margin).     

Markups of Exporters and Importers: Evidence from Hungary

In this paper, we study the relationship between different proxies of firm‐level markups and trade status, using balance sheet information linked to detailed trade data from Hungary between 1995 and 2003. We find that importing is strongly positively correlated with markup measures, both across and within firms. We argue that this correlation can reflect three channels: self‐selection, higher physical productivity resulting from access to a larger variety of inputs, and quality upgrading based on high‐quality imported intermediate inputs. We present evidence for the relevance of the third channel by showing that importers’ markup premium is higher when inputs arrive from developed countries, and that importing is correlated with higher‐quality (price‐adjusted revenue) exports. We find no robust evidence for exporter premium when controlling for importing. We argue that the non‐existent exporter premium might result from the stronger competition in export markets relative to domestic markets.