Mixed equilibria are unstable in games of strategic complements

In games with strict strategic complementarities, properly mixed Nash equilibria—equilibria that are not in pure strategies—are unstable for a broad class of learning dynamics.     

Are Municipal Electricity Distribution Utilities Natural Monopolies?

The purpose of this study is to analyse the cost structure of the Swiss electricity distribution utilities in order to assess economies of scale and density and the desirability of competition in the distribution of electric power. A translog cost function was estimated using panel data for a sample of 39 municipal utilities over the period 1988–1991. The results indicate the existence of economies of density for most output levels and the existence of economies of scale only for small and medium-sized electric utilities. The empirical evidence suggests that franchised monopolies, rather than side-by-side competition, is the most efficient form of production organization in the electric power distribution industry. Further, the majority of the utilities analysed do not operate at an optimal service territory size. Therefore, the consolidation of small utilities whose service territories are adjacent is likely to reduce costs.     

Consumption dynamics in general equilibrium: A characterisation when markets are incomplete

We introduce a methodology for analysing infinite horizon economies with two agents, one good, and incomplete markets. We provide an example in which an agent's equilibrium consumption is zero eventually with probability one even if she has correct beliefs and is marginally more patient. We then prove the following general result: if markets are effectively incomplete forever then on any equilibrium path on which some agent's consumption is bounded away from zero eventually, the other agent's consumption is zero eventually—so either some agent vanishes, in that she consumes zero eventually, or the consumption of both agents is arbitrarily close to zero infinitely often. Later we show that (a) for most economies in which individual endowments are finite state time homogeneous Markov processes, the consumption of an agent who has a uniformly positive endowment cannot converge to zero and (b) the possibility that an agent vanishes is a robust outcome since for a wide class of economies with incomplete markets, there are equilibria in which an agent's consumption is zero eventually with probability one even though she has correct beliefs as in the example. In sharp contrast to the results in the case studied by Sandroni (2000) [29] and Blume and Easley (2006) [8] where markets are complete, our results show that when markets are incomplete not only can the more patient agent (or the one with more accurate beliefs) be eliminated but there are situations in which neither agent is eliminated.     

Linear and non-linear price decentralization

Compendious and thorough solutions to the existence of a linear price equilibrium problem, the second welfare theorem, and the limit theorem on the core are provided for exchange economies whose consumption sets are the positive cone of arbitrary ordered Fréchet spaces—dispensing entirely with the assumption that the vector ordering of the commodity space is a lattice. The motivation comes from economic applications showing the need to bring within the scope of equilibrium theory vector orderings that are not lattices, which arise in the typical model of portfolio trading with missing options. The assumptions are on the primitives of the model. They are bounds on the marginals of non-linear prices and for ω-proper economies they are both sufficient and necessary.     

Is big better? On scale and scope economies in the Portuguese water sector

The ‘big is better’ idea has recently been challenged in network industries. Scale economies are considered finite so that for the individual utility an optimal scale of operations arises. A similar observation yields for scope economies as joint production is not predicted univocally anymore. In the water sector, scale economies and joint production are preferred. Nevertheless, several countries are restructuring the sector in order to improve the scale and scope of operations. This article intends to provide some insights into this matter. We analyze the Portuguese water market structure using non-parametric techniques with data from the year 2005. After surveying the literature on scale and scope economies, we discuss the peculiarities of the Portuguese water sector. The paper confirms the natural monopoly features. Although scope economies are absent, it highlights scale economies. The optimal scale of the utilities is located between 160,000 and 180,000 inhabitants. As such, the Portuguese water sector optimally counts 60 water utilities.     

Economies of density, scale and scope in the water supply and sewerage sector: a study of four developing and transition economies

Using panel data, we estimate measures of density, scale and scope economies in four countries that differ substantially in their levels of economic development and in their piped water and sewerage coverage: Brazil, Moldova, Romania and Vietnam. We find evidence of economies of scale in Moldova, Romania and Vietnam. In Brazil, we cannot reject the null hypothesis of constant returns to scale. The results of this study show that the cost structure of water and sewerage utilities varies significantly within and between countries and over time.      

Two-period cycles in a three-period overlapping generations model

We study the properties of two-period monetary cycles in simple pure exchange overlapping generations economies in which the households live for three periods. We demonstrate that these economies can support cycles under a much broader—and, arguably, more plausible—range of assumptions than the analogous two-period economies. We show that economies that fail the well-known Grandmont (Econometrica 53 (1985) 995) condition can have cycles, and that economies that satisfy the condition can fail to have cycles. In addition, we show that economies can have monetary cycles when they do not have conventional monetary steady states, and when aggregate demand for assets is not decreasing in the real return rate at a gross real rate of unity.     

Does too much government spending depress the economic development of transition economies? Evidences from dynamic panel threshold analysis

This paper investigates the relationship between government size and economic growth and determines the optimal level of government spending to maximize economic growth. The paper applies a dynamic panel data analysis based upon a threshold model to test the threshold effect of government spending in 26 transition economies over the period spanning 1993–2016. According to the analysis results, government expenditures have a threshold effect on economic growth, and there is a non-linear relationship depicted as an Armey curve in these transition economies. The findings indicate that a government size above the threshold government spending level adversely affects economic growth, while a government size below the threshold level has a positive effect. Furthermore, there is a statistically significant relationship between the two variables above and below that optimal level, even if we divide the sample into developed and developing countries. Our findings suggest that governments in transition economies should consider optimal government size at around the estimated threshold level to support sustainable economic growth.     

The impact of the biotechnology industry on local economic development in the Boston and San Diego metropolitan areas

High-technology/knowledge-intensive industries have become of increasing importance as sources of job growth and revenue to communities seeking to develop their economies. Communities want these industries so that they can be as economically vigorous as possible. However, although high-tech industries such as biotechnology are coveted as drivers of economic development, the local development impact of these clusters of regional innovation is not entirely positive. This is especially true with regard to the impact upon the low and semi-skilled populations. In some regions, the new growth generated by high-tech clusters has converted relatively inexpensive open space into haphazard commercial and industrial use that has contributed to sprawl, transportation congestion, lack of affordable housing, and gentrification. These problems are particularly evident in the Boston and San Diego metropolitan areas, which rank as the second and third largest U.S. biotechnology clusters respectively. This paper seeks to gauge the local economic development impact—especially with regard to the labor and real estate markets—of the biotechnology clusters in the San Diego and Boston metropolitan areas.     

VERTICAL AND HORIZONTAL ECONOMIES IN THE ELECTRIC UTILITY INDUSTRY: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH

ABSTRACT ** :  The empirical literature on the cost structure of the electric utility industry traditionally focused on the measurement of specific technological properties: 1) scale economies in generation or distribution; 2) multi-product (or horizontal) scope economies at one particular stage; 3) multi-stage (or vertical) scope economies. By adopting an integrated approach, which simultaneously considers both horizontal and vertical aspects of the technology, we find the presence, on a sample of Italian electric utilities, of both vertical integration gains and horizontal scope economies at the downstream stage. In the light of recent regulatory reforms aiming at restructuring European electricity markets, our findings have important policy implications as for the proper configuration of the industry. Moreover, this methodology can be usefully applied to the study of the production structure of other public network utilities involved in similar vertical and horizontal reorganization processes.     

People, cities, growth and technological change : From the golden age to globalization

The concept of economic development appeared during the postwar period as the basis and the source of a very strong hope of eradicating extreme poverty from the face of the Earth. All along the three first decades of this period—the second half of the 20th century—this promise did not seem questionable. It was thought that there were clear signs that material progress reaching larger sectors of the population and economic growth were parallel processes, linked to urbanization. A new style was thus established—that of modern large cities. However, the dynamics of this period appears to be strongly associated with the economic activity related to the basic construction of one's own lifestyle. The effects of structural market saturation and the limits of the redistribution of income began to be noticed in as far back as the end of the 1960s, and even more clearly so towards the end of the 1970s. That was the moment when population growth in the megalopolises and large cities in general began to become stable and even to decline in absolute value. It was also the time when the acceleration of technological innovation began to play a major role in development policies, while low social inclusion and marginalization problems became evident. This paper delves into this hypothesis on the basis of ample empirical evidence. Numerous conclusions are drawn from the analysis, which are useful for a serious restatement of the controversial issue of Sustainable Development.     

Co-monotonicity: Toward a utility function capturing envy

Envy affects economic decisions, and can lead to monotonicity violation. We introduce co-monotonicity—a generalization of monotonicity, expected to hold even in the presence of envy. Experimental results and implications for the form of possible utility functions are discussed.     

中印宏观经济：一种比较的分析

中国和印度自开放以来，经济发展迅速，咸了亚洲乃至世界经济增长的火车头。目前是全球经济增长最快的两个国家，两国国情有许多相似之处，但两国经济发展又有各自不同的轨迹。因此，对两国追行宏观对比，意义重大。本文认为，中印两国只有互相学习，互相借鉴，取长补短，方能实现强国之梦。     

Gender Equality and Long-Run Growth

This research suggests that long-run economic and demographic development in Europe can be better understood when related to long-term trends in gender equality, dating back to the spread of Christianity. We set up a growth model where gaps in female-to-male human capital arise at equilibrium through a coordination process. An economy which over a long stretch of time re-coordinates on continuously more equal equilibria—as one could argue happened in Europe—exhibits growth patterns qualitatively similar to that of Europe.     

Time consistent monetary policy with endogenous price rigidity

I characterize time consistent equilibrium in an economy with price rigidity and an optimizing monetary authority operating under discretion. Firms have the option to increase their frequency of price change, at a cost, in response to higher inflation. Previous studies, which assume a constant degree of price rigidity across inflation regimes, find two time consistent equilibria—one with low inflation, the other with high inflation. In contrast, when price rigidity is endogenous, the high inflation equilibrium ceases to exist. Hence, time consistent equilibrium is unique. This result depends on two features of the analysis: (1) a plausible quantitative specification of the fixed cost of price change, and (2) the presence of an arbitrarily small cost of inflation that is independent of price rigidity.     

A century of economic growth in Latin America

This paper makes a contribution to the study of economic growth in developing countries by analyzing the six largest Latin American economies over 105 years within a two-equation framework. Confirming previous findings, physical and human capital prove to be key determinants of GDP per head growth. However, a more controversial result is an overall negative conditional correlation between trade openness and GDP per head growth — though openness has a positive link via investment. The evidence also shows that macroeconomic instability has been a drag on long-term growth in the region.     

Quality of service,efficiency and scale in network industries: an analysis of European electricity distribution

Quality of service (QoS) is of major economic significance in natural monopoly infrastructure industries. In this article, we present an efficiency analysis of electricity distribution networks from seven European countries. We apply the stochastic frontier analysis method to multi-output translog input distance function models to estimate cost efficiency and scale economies. We show that introducing the quality dimension into the analysis affects estimated efficiency significantly, especially that smaller utilities’ efficiency seems to decrease. Our results emphasize that QoS should be an integrated part of efficiency and economic analysis of regulated natural monopolies.     

Financial imbalances and gradualism

In the last years, in the major OECD economies, while inflation has become lower and more stable, episodes of financial instability and large cycles in asset prices have shown up with (often) non-negligible effects on economic activity. These facts should call for a larger concern with financial imbalances by the central bank. Adapting the model by Caplin and Leahy (1996)—where a central bank, which is uncertain about the state of the economy and its reaction to policy, seeks an optimal search strategy to influence private agents' responses—by substituting the central bank's price stability objective with a financial stability one, we find that the monetary authority should follow a less aggressive policy than the one suggested by the original model. However, initial conditions play a crucial role in determining the degree of gradualism by the policy maker with the policy becoming more and more aggressive as the initial interest rate shrinks.     

Cyclical wage movements in emerging markets compared to developed economies: The role of interest rates

This paper documents that, at the aggregate level, (i) real wages are positively correlated with output and, on average, lag output by about one quarter in emerging markets, while there are no systematic patterns in developed economies, and (ii) real wage volatility (relative to output volatility) is about twice as high in emerging markets compared with developed economies. We then present a small open economy model with productivity shocks and countercyclical interest rates. The model incorporates a working capital requirement and the Jaimovich and Rebelo (2009) preference that allows for flexible parameterization of the strength of income effects on labor supply. The model can account for the high volatility of wage and consumption relative to output and countercyclical trade balances that characterize emerging-market economies. During economic downturns, rising interest rates in emerging markets induce relatively large income effects on labor supply, so households would not reduce their labor input as much even though wages drop significantly.     

Optimal versus adequate level of international reserves: evidence for Turkey

The determination of international reserve balance for emerging economies is part of the efforts to strengthen the immunity of these economies to crises. However, there is still evidence on crises even for the countries with large foreign reserves. It has usually been experienced that the countries with greatest need for reserves economize more than others on their holdings since they might underestimate the cost of crisis. In this study, the official international reserves of Turkey are tested against optimality and adequacy. During 1988–2002, the actual reserves fell short of both the optimal and the adequate levels. They are only optimal when the expected cumulative contraction is about 5.2% of real GDP under crisis. However, early evidence from emerging economies and Turkey show that crises hit more heavily. Hence, it is found that the current financial structure in Turkey such as the absence of capital controls and a highly dollarized banking system necessitates more foreign reserves for preventing any future economic and/or financial shocks.