未来人口迁移、城市化发展战略

在计划经济体制下,中国城市化道路是一条由城乡隔离的户籍制度严格控制城市规模扩展的道路。改革开放以来,由于国家在很长一段时期实行“控制大城市规模”的城市发展政策,户口迁移政策和现实的人口迁移规模存在着巨大的反差,已严重影响城市化进程。20多年城市化的实践表明:小城镇的道路并非是适合于中国城市化的选择,中国国情决定了应该把体系化城市发展作为城市化战略。政府在推动人口迁移、城市化进程中,要从法律、政策、措施方面,保证市场主导型城市化战略的实施。     

我国土地市场发育程度测算与实证研究，——以东、中、西部为例

土地的有偿出让极大地促进了土地资源的配置和集约利用.目前关于我国土地市场的研究大多集中在土地制度、地价以及土地市场中政府角色的定位等方面.文章在回顾相关市场化测度研究的基础上,试图通过构建一套评价指标体系来定量测算我国城市土地市场的发育程度.在把我国划分为东、中、西三个区域的基础上,本文对我国东、中、西部城市土地市场发育程度进行了比较、分析.研究发现:我国东、中、西部经济发展水平的梯度并不必然带来土地市场的梯度发育;事实上目前我国城市土地市场的发育在很大程度上具有政策导向的特点,而土地市场发育的自发性和政策性相结合宜成为今后土地市场培育的重要方向.最后,文章给提出了相应的政策建议.     

Pigouvian Taxation in Tourism

The paper studies the characteristics and the effects of a tax imposed by a local government on the land used to create new tourists' accommodations. First, a dynamic policy game between a monopolist in a tourist area and a local government is considered. In each period the former has to decide the size of land undergoing development, whereas the latter has to choose the tax to levy on each newly developed area unit. Linear Perfect Markov strategies are derived for both the non-cooperative and the public monopoly case. In equilibrium, a public monopoly would develop land more rapidly than a private monopoly. Furthermore, the more the monopolist discounts the future, the more the long run use of the natural resource is reduced. Second, the properties of the tax are studied considering an oligopolistic market structure. The tax alone does not lead to the socially optimal level of land use. However, its combined effect with another policy instrument such as a quota, induces the optimal level of resource use.     

Land rental markets in the process of rural structural transformation: Productivity and equity impacts from China

Although the importance of land rental for overall economic development and development of the non-agricultural economy has long been recognized in theory, empirical evidence on factors that can promote or impede operation of such markets and their productivity and equity impacts, especially in rapidly developing economies with rather equal land endowments, remains limited. A large household level panel is used to illustrate the large contribution of land markets to occupational diversification, productivity of land use, and household welfare. Factors affecting land market participation are derived from a household model with transaction cost and individual ability. Results suggest that, by transferring land from less able and more affluent households who joined the non-farm sector to poorer ones with ample family labor, land markets are critical not only for non-agricultural growth but, by allowing more effective use of potentially idle land can contribute to significant productivity gains. Policy implications are derived.     

Security of property rights and transition in land use

Price and yield uncertainty are traditional considerations in agricultural markets and their impact on development. Agricultural producers in transition economies face an additional risk factor – changes in the institutional protection of property rights. This paper illustrates how institutional uncertainty may affect investment, land use, and crop mix patterns. In particular, in the Ukrainian example, the rights of tenants are viewed as uncertain in anticipation of establishment of an open market for sale of agricultural land. Establishment of the land market in Ukraine has been postponed several times over the last 15 years and a significant number of lease contracts are not formalized. A large panel of farm-level data was used to show that a higher share of rented land is associated with a lower share of land used for investment intensive perennial crops controlling for prices and other factors. The difference in response to uncertainty is found to be significant among three crop types: perennials, grains and oil crops. The implication is that the lower level of protection of use rights and uncertainty regarding the future regulation of land sales market lead to under-investments in more capital intensive crops. As a result, tenants deviate from the optimal crop mix, reducing the productivity of tenant farms. Farms under 200 ha are affected most negatively as they are less likely to be able to access the level of legal and political protection enjoyed by large farms.     

江苏省开发区土地利用集约度的诱因分析

作为地区经济发展的重要载体,开发区在带动区域产业发展和城市化水平提高方面具有重要意义。然而,由于存在功能定位不清、产业结构趋同等问题,开发区的土地浪费与低效利用现象普遍存在。即使是在土地集约利用程度较高的江苏省开发区,也存在区域内部和区域间土地集约利用水平的差异。文章利用Eviews3.0统计软件,采用经济计量分析方法,对江苏省开发区土地集约利用的影响因素进行实证分析,以探讨促进土地集约利用的途径与措施。研究结果表明,不同的经济发展阶段导致开发区土地利用的集约水平不同。而在同一经济发展水平上,开发区的土地利用结构、土地开发率、地均投资强度以及开发区的土地市场发育程度和工业用地出让的市场化率是影响开发区土地利用集约程度的重要驱动因素。因此,应结合地区经济发展现状与趋势,从提高开发区投资强度、优化用地结构、积极培育土地市场发育等方面制定相应的土地集约利用经济激励机制和措施。     

土地双垄断情况下的收益博弈

本文通过重复信号博弈模型和双垄断模型,运用制度分析法来考察现有土地制度安排下地方政府和中央政府对土地利用的最优反应,结果显示:(1)中央政府对地方政府的监管成本过高,导致土地垄断利润分配过程中地方政府获利更大,进而催生了《土地管理法》;(2)现有地方土地资源利用完全不受限制,导致地方经济发展失去了中央宏观调控的约束。因此,本文提出相关对策建议。     

土地征用中存在的主要问题

伴随着城市建设和经济发展,土地市场开发和土地征用日渐频繁。实践中,我国对征用土地的大部分使用都是为了商业目的,而且在征用过程中存在许多有待思考和解决的问题。因此,正确处理经济发展与土地保护的关系,加强对征用土地的监督管理尤为必要。文章通过对土地征用中一些主要问题的归纳和分析,期望完善立法以进一步维护农民的利益,真正实行最严格的土地管理制度,保护和利用好每一寸土地。     

Effects of congestion on the shape of a city

This paper develops a model for the allocation of urban land among the residential and transportation sectors and the central business district. The model is used to derive the intensity of land use, i.e., the capital per unit of land, in the residential and transportation sectors. Two different institutional arrangements are discussed: a central planning agency, and a competitive market. It is shown that the externalities imposed by traffic congestion results in the market city being larger (for the same population), and with flatter density profiles.     

用科学发展观指导城市土地整理

用科学发展观指导城市土地整理工作,处理好城市发展与城市用地总量与结构平衡、生态环境保护的关系,统筹人与自然的和谐发展。为此,要建立健全城市土地整理市场准入机制,完善城市土地整理市场规则,实行政企分开、政事分开,体现市场经济公开、公平、有序、竞争原则,以实现城市土地整理区的社会经济协调发展。     

空间利用的变革：北京的经历

Specific changes in land use can, and often do, occur when any social economic system moves from one form to another. When traditional societies transit from traditional land uses to philosophically determined land uses, as in the case of the introduction of socialism or the transition from system of planned economy to a market system, such changes seem concentrated and perhaps exacerbated. Certainly, such circumstances provide the opportunity to see the process of social philosophy and its impact upon land use in a telescoped fashion, The discovery and explanation of these elements might provide some insight into basic human behavior, and its relationship to social control and how people organize space both with and without control. This paper presents the results of observations of changes in land use as they have occurred during the course of transitional economic development in Beijing, China for the past decade. It suggests three new generic categories that can be applied to any culture or society.     

关于衍生产品的发展

随着金融创新的不断发展,衍生产品作为金融领域的新型产品,已经呈现出是一种卓有成效的市场机制,是一种很好的风险管理工具。加强发展衍生产品吸引更多的国外投资者进入中国的商品市场,夺取大宗商品的定价权是中国经济稳定发展的首要目标。通过总结在利用这种新型工具来降低投资风险时应注意的几类问题,从监管模式的改革和法律规制的改进等方面提出衍生产品未来发展的一些建议。     

Expectations Heterogeneity and Excessive Price Sensitivity in the Land Market

This paper analyses price behaviour in the land market in which the Walrasian auctioneer is absent. Sellers are informed about the land value and post their asking prices; buyers are uninformed, have different opinions, and decide whether or not to accept the sellers' offers. In this market, sellers are "price-makers" with probabilisitic market power : they can influence the sale probability through their asking price. Price may be excessively sensitive to unexpected changes in market conditions. Moreover, buyer heterogeneity may accentuate the excessive price sensitivity. It has been shown that, the more heterogeneous their opinions, the more sensitive are prices.
JEL Classification Numbers: D40, D43, D82, D84, E44, G12.     

The Evolution of the Use of Space：Lessons from Beijing

Specific changes in land use can, and often do, occur when any social economic system moves from one form to another. When traditional societies transit from traditional land uses to philosophically determined land uses, as in the case of the introduction of sooialism or the transition from system of planned economy to a market system, such changes seem concentrated and perhaps exacerbated. Certainly, such circumstances provide the opportunity to see the process of social philosophy and its impact upon land use in a telescoped fashion. The discovery and explanation of these elements might provide some insight into basic human behavior, and its relationship to social controt and how people organize space both with and without control. This paper presents the results of observations of changes in land use as they have occurred during the course of transitional economic development in Beijing, China for the past decade, it suggests three new generic categories that can be applied to any culture or society.     

国外关于农地流转的理论研究与启示

本文认为,比较国内外农地流转,中国农地流转率偏低,土地私有化并不必然带来有效土地市场的建立,土地租赁市场已经成为农地资源配置的最主要方式.农地市场的发育不仅取决于农地产权制度,交易费用、制度环境、经济环境、非农产业的发展、农业劳动力转移等也是影响农地流转的因素,甚至是更为重要的因素.实行农地制度创新,培育土地使用权市场,推动非农产业的发展,发展农村金融与保险市场,积极创造良好的外部环境,是培育中国土地市场,推动农地流转的根本途径.     

农民成为真正市场主体是农村市场化的首要条件

经过 2 5年的改革 ,我国农村发生了很大变化 ,但农民并没有真正走入市场 ,成为市场竞争的主体 ,他们在众多方面还受着自然经济和计划经济的双重束缚。使农民成为真正的市场竞争主体 ,就必须进行农村土地产权制度改革 ,将农户对土地的承包经营权拓展到包括经营权、抵押权、入股权、转让权、处置权和收益权在内的他物权 ,使农民成为产权主体 ,在此基础上构建龙头企业和农民企业家通过产权纽带带领农民致富的农村经营制度     

Conservation of biodiversity and economic development: The concept of transferable development rights

For ecological and economic reasons it is more cost effective to conserve habitats rather than species, and hence biodiversity conservation becomes a land use issue. Since in developing countries, land is the most important productive asset, the opportunity costs of conservation are forgone development, while the benefits from conservation are distant and largely external to the host country. The concept of transferable development rights (TDRs), which has been extensively applied to conservation of historical buildings in urban areas, is extended and adapted here to the conservation of biodiversity, both within a country and globally. Creation of a market for TDRs makes effective the latent demand for and supply of biodiversity conservation and generates benefits for both the supplier (developing countries) and the demander (developed countries). The paper explores the conditions and public interventions necessary for the creation of an active market for TDRs. It also proposes a number of mechanisms such as credits and offsets for purchase of TDRs against domestic regulations and conservation taxes in the developed countries.     

新城市主义社区规划与设计的几大法则

新城市主义是美国1990年代促进邻里和地区健康发展、提高生活质量的思潮和运动,对当今北美以及其他某些地区的城市建设产生了重大影响。文章将阐明新城市主义的主要理论框架,并探求其在社区规划与设计方面的主要法则,从中寻求对当前中国城市社区规划与设计的启示与借鉴。     

An assessment of the influence of bioenergy and marketed land amenity values on land uses in the Midwestern US

There is substantial concern that bioenergy policies could swamp other considerations, such as environmental values, and lead to large-scale conversions of land from forest to crops. This study examines how bioenergy and marketed environmental rents for forestland potentially influence land use in the Midwestern US. We hypothesize that current land uses reflect market values for environmental benefits of forestland, so that the marketed component of the environmental value of land can be captured as the difference between Census land values and value of land as a timber asset. We use a multinomial logit model to estimate the land use shares of forests, crops and urban in Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois. The results show that marketed environmental rents increase forestland relative to cropland. To examine the effects of biofuels on land use, we conduct policy analysis by altering future land rents. Our baseline scenario projects that urban development uses mostly cropland, but with higher crop rents resulting from increased demand for bioenergy, there will be significant losses of forestland to urban and cropland. On the other hand, if marketed environmental rents grow while crop rents are maintained at their baseline value, urban growth will occur, primarily at the expense of cropland.     

Assessing Effects of Mitigation Strategies for Global Climate Change with an Intertemporal Model of the U.S. Forest and Agriculture Sectors

A model of product and land markets in U.S. forest and agricultural sectors is used to examine the private forest management, land use, and market implications of carbon sequestration policies implemented in a" least social cost" fashion. Results suggest: policy-induced land use changes may generate compensating land use shifts through markets; land use shifts to meet policy targets need not be permanent; implementation of land use and management changes in a smooth or regular fashion over time may not be optimal; and primary forms of adjustment to meet carbon policy targets involve shifting of land from agriculture to forest and more intensive forest management in combinations varying with the policy target.