我国区域金融发展与区域经济增长关系的实证分析

本文在对我国区域性金融发展与区域经济增长关系进行实证分析的基础上发现,金融发展与经济增长之间存在因果关系,与投资增长之间却不存在因果关系,但后者的结论不稳健;东部和全国的金融发展与经济增长之间存在正相关的关系,而中、西部二者之间则几乎是负相关的关系,且存在明显的滞后效应;过度开放金融竞争和推动金融的市场化改革,对欠发达地区的经济增长可能反而不利.基于这样的结论,我们提出了优化区域金融结构、促进区域经济协调发展的对策建议.     

金融发展与城乡收入分配的库兹涅茨效应研究——基于中国省级面板数据的检验

金融发展可度量为金融-规模、金融-活动和金融*效率三个主要指标.利用OLS和GMM回归、面板单位根、协整和因果关系检验对中国金融发展水平与城乡收入分配之间的关系进行检验后得知: (1)金融发展和城乡收入差距之间存在着库兹涅茨效应,即所谓的倒U关系. (2)中国金融发展规模显著拉大了城乡收入差距,但加强农业贷款对农民收入增长取得了显著作用,会缩小城乡收入差距;金融发展效率的提高有助于城乡收入差距的缩小. (3)金融发展水平与城乡收入分配之间存在长期的均衡关系;金融发展规模、农村信贷与城乡收入分配之间存在单向因果关系,金融发展效率与城乡收入分配之间存在双向因果关系.     

金融发展与城乡收入分配的“库兹涅茨效应”研究

中国当前的金融发展规模显著拉大城乡收入差距.加强农业贷款对农民收入增长具有显著作用,会缩小城乡收入差距.金融发展效率的提高有助于城乡收入差距的缩小,在金融发展和收入差距之间存在库兹涅茨效应.金融发展水平与城乡收入分配之间存在长期的均衡关系.金融发展规模、农村信贷与城乡收入分配之间存在单向因果关系,金融发展效率与城乡收入分配之问存在双向因果关系.     

地区能源消费与经济增长的协整分析——以新疆为例

能源是国民经济最基本的物质基础之一,研究地区能源消费与经济增长的关系对于新疆的跨越式发展具有重要现实意义.运用协整理论,对1952～2009年新疆能源消费和经济增长相关数据的协整分析表明:能源中的煤炭消费量与国民生产总值是协整的,二者存在长期的均衡关系;进一步的格兰杰检验表明:经济增长与煤炭消费量之间是格兰杰单向因果关系,即经济的增长引起煤炭消费量的增加;误差修正模型表明国民生产总值与煤炭消费量之间存在不显著的短期误差修正机制;新疆的经济增长仍然是以大量消耗煤炭为基础,现有能源消费结构不合理,能源利用效率低.在此基础上提出相应的对策建议,以实现新疆的科学跨越.     

地区金融发展与经济增长的互动关系研究——以陕西为例的实证分析

文章以陕西为例对地区金融发展和经济增长间的互动关系进行了探讨。构建向量误差修正模型,运用格兰杰因果检验法对陕西金融发展和经济增长的动态关系及双向因果关系进行了实证分析。研究结论是二者存在单向因果关系,陕西尚未进入金融发展和经济增长的互动阶段。     

甘肃省金融发展与经济增长关系研究——基于1994—2008年数据的实证分析

大量研究表明,金融发展是影响经济发展的重要因素,金融发展水平低严重制约着欠发达地区的经济发展水平。基于国内学者的研究成果,利用1994—2008年的数据,对甘肃省金融发展与经济增长之间的关系进行了定量分析。实证结果表明,金融发展指标FIR与经济增长指标GDPR之间存在长期稳定的负相关关系,金融发展与经济增长存在不显著的正向因果关系。     

安徽省金融发展与经济增长关系的实证研究——1985-2005

利用协整及Granger因果检验对安徽省金融发展和经济增长之间的关系进行了实证分析。分析的结果表明,现阶段安徽省金融发展与经济增长之间存在Granger因果关系。但这种关系是单向的,是从金融发展到经济增长,而且表现为反向的作用。在此基础上,提出了推动安徽经济增长、促进中部经济崛起的经济金融政策建议。     

安徽省金融发展与经济增长关——1985—2005系的实证研究

利用协整及Granger因果检验对安徽省金融发展和经济增长之间的关系进行了实证分析。分析的结果表明，现阶段安徽省金融发展与经济增长之间存在Granger因果关系。但这种关系是单向的，是从金融发展到经济增长，而且表现为反向的作用。在此基础上，提出了推动安徽经济增长、促进中部经济崛起的经济金融政策建议。     

中美两国金融发展与经济增长关系的比较研究

本文主要对中国的金融发展与经济增长的关系进行实证分析,并与发达国家的代表——美国的金融发展状况进行对比,结果表明:中国和美国的金融发展和经济增长之间均存在很显著的因果关系,但中国的金融相关率明显低于美国；中国的货币扩张系数明显地高于美国；中国的银行深度高于美国,而非货币金融资产发行系数、证券化率和债券发行度则低于美国.因而,中国应坚持金融为实体经济服务的原则不动摇,同时稳健地发展金融资产总量、优化金融资产结构、在金融监管的基础上加快金融创新,促进金融体系整体水平的提高.     

开发性金融对经济增长影响分析及实证检验

引用动态供给导向型金融经济模型,对开发性金融影响经济增长的机制进行分析;在此基础上,借鉴一般金融与经济增长关系的衡量指标,构建了符合开发性金融本质特征的衡量指标,进行实证检验.结果表明,开发性金融与经济增长之间具有长期均衡关系但不具有显著的因果关系.从接受原假设的概率P值、F统计量以及协整方程来看,开发性金融对经济增长的影响强度明显大于经济增长对开发性金融的影响强度,这在一定程度上印证了开发性金融发展的主导性、超前性,符合开发性金融的理论与实践.     

The causal relationship between financial development and economic growth in Africa

ABSTRACT

Previous empirical studies on the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth are not instructive given their failure to unearth the causality trend across the different time periods. Using a more recently developed and robust indicator of financial development, we revisit the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth within the framework of a frequency-domain spectral causality technique which allows the causality to vary across time. Using data from 47 African countries over the period 1980–2016, our findings largely suggest that, even though there is some evidence of demand-following, supply-leading and feedback hypotheses, for most part, we find strong support of neutrality hypothesis. Thus, financial development and economic growth at most frequency levels evolve independently. We infer that caution must be exercised in making general conclusions about the causal nexus between financial development and economic growth.     

A quantitative reassessment of the finance–growth nexus: evidence from a multivariate VAR

The long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth is examined in a multivariate vector autoregression (VAR) framework using 10 sample countries. Difficulties surrounding the cross-country regressions and bivariate time series studies are outlined. The long-run financial development and output relationships are identified in a cointegrating framework through tests of over-identifying restrictions. We find bi-directional causality between financial development and economic growth in all the sample countries, conclusions that stand distinct from those in the existing empirical literature. We attribute our findings to: (i) analysis of a higher dimensional system, (ii) a new method of identifying the long-run economic relationships, and (iii) a new approach to long-run causality testing.     

Financial development and economic growth in Greece: an empirical investigation with Granger causality analysis

This paper empirically examines the causal relationship between the degree of openness of the economy, financial development and economic growth by using a multivariate autoregressive VAR model in Greece for the examined period 1960:I-2000:IV. The results of cointegration analysis suggest that there is one cointegrated vector among GDP, financial development and the degree of openness of the economy. Granger causality tests based on error correction models show that there is a causal relationship between financial development and economic growth, but also between the degree of openness of the economy and economic growth.     

The impact of financial development,economic growth,income inequality on poverty: evidence from India

This paper examines the impact of financial development, economic growth and income inequality on poverty in India from 1970 to 2015 by employing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing procedure. The findings reveal a robust long-run relationship between financial development, economic growth, inequality and poverty. Results show that financial development and economic growth help in poverty reduction in India, whereas income inequality and inflation aggravate poverty. Empirical evidence of the Granger-causality test supports the presence of unidirectional causality from financial development and economic growth to poverty. Moreover, bidirectional causality exists between inequality and poverty. The present study provides evidence on which the policymakers may proceed with detailed investigation of how specific financial sector policies and interventions can be deployed as effective instruments for achieving favorable economic growth and income distribution. The study recommends that policies geared toward increasing financial development and economic growth should be adopted to reduce the high level of poverty and inequality currently prevailing in India.     

Financial development and economic growth in Australia: An empirical analysis

The paper empirically examines the dynamic relationship between financial development and economic growth in Australia in terms of bank-based and market-based financial structure. A time-series approach using the VAR Model is used to provide evidence for the dynamic relationship. The paper provides empirical evidence on the causal impact of the financial market on the economic growth of the Australian economy. The results suggest that financial intermediaries and financial markets have different impacts on economic growth given their diverse roles in the domestic economy. In particular there is evidence of causality from economic growth to the development of the financial intermediaries. On the other hand, development in the financial markets causes economic growth but there is no evidence of any causality from economic growth to financial markets. The sensitivity test using different interest rates does not change the results.I Jel classification: O16, G18, G28I We would like to thank Tilak Abeysinghe and Rajagurn Gunasekaran for their helpful comments on the first draft. Also, we would like to thank the Editor, Prof. Baldev Raj, and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments.First version received: October 2001/Final version received: October 2002     

Is globalization detrimental to financial development? Further evidence from a very large emerging economy with significant orientation towards policies

This study attempts to explore the relationship between globalization and financial development by endogenizing economic growth, population density, inflation and institutional quality for India during the period from 1971–2013. Using the more conclusivecombined cointegration method, the study provides evidence of cointegration among these variables. The long-run and short-run estimates from the ARDL model and causality tests, respectively, suggest that globalization in its all forms (political, social and economic) and its overall measure as well as inflation are detrimental to financial development, while economic growth and population density both promote financial development. Furthermore, the results also point out that institutional quality is not conducive to financial development in India, and there exists a feedback effect between financial development and inflation. Moreover, financial development is influenced by economic growth, institutional quality and population density.     

Trade liberalization,financial modernization and economic development: An empirical study of selected Asia–Pacific countries

This study investigates the relationship between trade liberalization, financial modernization and economic development for 14 countries in the Asia and Pacific region over the period spanning from 1961 to 2011. The study uses panel data as they have many advantages over cross-sectional or time series data. In addition to analyzing the full panel, we also divide the 14 countries under study into two sub-samples: high-income countries and middle-income countries, based on World Bank's income classification as of 1st July 2013. The panel cointegration tests show a long run relationship between the above variables. The study uses Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) method to estimate the models and then conducts Granger causality tests to identify patterns of causation among the variables of interest. In general, the results indicate unidirectional causality (1) from financial modernization to economic development for the entire panel and the panel of middle-income countries; (2) from trade liberalization to economic development for the whole panel as well as two subpanels of high-income and middle-income countries; and (3) from trade liberalization to financial modernization for the whole panel as well as two subpanels. The findings of this study support that the actual effect of financial depth on economic development (and vice versa) seems to depend on the level of financial development.     

Financial Development and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Six MENA Countries

This paper examines the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth for six Middle Eastern and North African countries (Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Morocco, Syria, and Tunisia), within a quadvariate vector autoregressive framework. We employ four different measures of financial development and apply the augmented vector autoregression vector (VAR) methodology of Toda and Yamamoto to test for Granger causality. Our empirical results strongly support the hypothesis that finance leads to growth in five out of the six countries. Only in Israel could weak support be found for causality running from economic growth to financial development but no causality in the other direction. These findings suggest the need to accelerate the financial reforms that have been launched since the mid 1980s and to improve the efficiency of these countries’ financial systems to stimulate saving/investment and, consequently, long‐term economic growth.