The “Emulator Effect” of the Uruguay Round on US Regionalism

Using a detailed data set at the tariff line level, we find an emulator effect of multilateralism on subsequent regional trade agreements (RTAs) involving the USA. We exploit the variation in the frequency with which the US grants immediate duty free access (IDA) to its RTA partners across tariff lines. A key finding is that the US grants IDA status especially on goods for which it has cut the multilateral most favored nation (MFN) tariff during the Uruguay Round the most. Our results suggest that the Uruguay Round multilateral “concessions” have elicited subsequent preferential trade liberalization.     

Axiomatisches Mißverständnis

From the axiomatic point of view, mathematics appears thus as a storehouse of abstract forms – the mathematical structures; and so it happens without our knowing how that certain aspects of empirical reality fit themselves into these forms, as if through a kind of preadaptation. (Bourbaki, 1950, p. 231)
So you believe that the application of mathematics to the physical world is a miracle? If so, then I invite you to admire another miracle; I can travel around the world with my American Express card. You say of the second, 'That's just a network. If you step out of it by so much as an inch, your card will be valueless.' Quite so. That is what I am saying about science, nothing more and nothing less. (Latour, 1988, p.221)     

ANXIETY AND PERFORMANCE: AN ENDOGENOUS LEARNING‐BY‐DOING MODEL*

In this article, we show that a standard economic model, the endogenous learning‐by‐doing model, captures several major themes from the anxiety literature in psychology. In our model, anxiety is a fully endogenous construct that can be separated naturally into its cognitive and physiological components. As such, our results are directly comparable with hypotheses and evidence from psychology. We show that anxiety can serve a motivating function, which suggests potential applications in the principal–agent literature.

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An on-line intellectual community or “MEMEX” revisited

This paper represents one individual's view of the potential impact of Computer and Information Science technology on the future of scientific and technical information transfer. However, the propositions put forth are based upon a synthesis of existing efforts tempered by what seem to be the most significant needs in the current process.

The paper attempts to piece together how current efforts in abstract services, journal and book publication, word processing, computerized conferences, and information retrieval systems may ultimately evolve as a single system serving the needs of the scientific and technical community.     

An Evaluation of Batra's “Fallacy of Free Trade”*

Batra (1992) argues that international trade since 1972 has lowered the living standards of most Americans (whose income results from providing labor services), while benefiting the small group of capital owners. This commentary shows that Batra's arguments are based on incorrect data and that his analyses are grossly lopsided. Batra further claims that the manufacturing base of the United States is shrinking due to international trade and that, therefore, this sector should be protected. the facts, however, counter Batra's contention, thereby dealing a fatal blow to his policy recommendation. This commentary refutes several additional assertions in Batra's paper.     

Recent and Future Developments Related to “Gdp and Beyond”

Progress of societies? Well‐being of citizens? Trans‐generational impact of policies? To answer such fundamental questions and much more, the European Commission published, in August 2009, its Communication on “GDP and Beyond: Measuring Progress in a Changing World.” Through a co‐operative project, co‐chaired by Eurostat and INSEE (France), the ESS acted decisively and established an action plan to be carried out by 2020 in the context of the European Statistical Programme. This plan which also builds on Eurostat's work on Sustainable Development Indicators. For most of these actions, work has either been accomplished or is in good progress. Further challenges lie ahead, including reconciling macro‐ and micro‐data sources on household economic resources and completing the indicators set on Quality‐of‐Life. The work will also contribute to the global efforts on the Sustainable Development Goals/post‐2015 development agenda.     

Investment and poverty: The role of the International Financial Institutions: The Jacques de Larosière Lecture

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) is a unique institution with an inspiring and challenging mandate. I look back on the six years I spent with you as a most productive and cheerful period of my working life. And it is a great honour to give a lecture bearing the name of Jacques de Larosière. Like many of you, I learned enormously from him and owe him an immense debt. And even as bankers, we must recognize that there are some debts that it is a privilege to bear. Jacques is a very special figure in the international community. He is someone who, through his outstanding abilities, personality, dedication and charm, has changed the shape of development and progress in the global economy of the last fifty years. Giving this lecture in his name means a great deal to me, and I would like to thank Jean Lemierre and the Executive Committee of the EBRD for the invitation.     

“Constitutionalizing” the corporation

To become effective instruments in the attainment of a sustainable society, corporations should have their constitutional status settled. Thus far, mainly by Supreme Court decisions, corporations have an uncertain status. They are “persons” under the Constitution and have certain rights; but unlike natural persons, they do not have concomitant constitutional duties. Corporations should be viewed as “private” governments exercising substantial power in society. They are, however, considered to be associations of individuals rather than divisions of society. The need is to legitimate their governing power by “constitutionalizing” them. That can be done by corporations accepting, or having imposed upon them, two principal constitutional duties. First, means should be developed whereby corporate officers routinely take the general good into account. That duty could be implemented by making “social impact statements,” analogous to but broader than the familiar environmental impact statements, before making important corporate decisions. Secondly, as “sociological communities,” corporate officers wield considerable power over members of those communities. A bill of rights similar to the Constitution's Bill of Rights is recommended so as to make corporate power that is necessary for achievement of societal goals as tolerable and decent as possible. Acceptance of those duties would make corporations parts of, not separate from, the greater corporation called society. They would be private, profit-making entities with a definite public function. Preferably, the duties should be voluntarily accepted. Congress, however, has undoubted constitutional power to impose both, should it so desire.     

“ENVIRONMENT”, “NEEDS” AND REAL INCOME COMPARISONS(1)

Conventional measures of national product make no pretence of including everything that affects welfare. As increasing attention is being paid to environmental pollution, the problem of incorporating certain non-economic variables into the analysis of well-being becomes more relevant. The object of this note is to show how a difference in “needs” for, and hence expenditures on, anti-pollutants, which will show up in conventional national accounts comparisons as differences in “tastes”, should be converted into differences in real income.     

The optimal neglect of inflation: An alternative interpretation of UK monetary policy during the “Great Moderation”

This paper argues that UK monetary policymakers did not respond to the inflation rate during most of the “Great Moderation” that ran from the early 1990s to the mid-2000s. We derive a generalisation of the New Keynesian Phillips curve in which inflation is a non-linear function of the output gap and show that the optimal response of the policy rule to inflation depends on the slope of the Phillips curve; if this is flat, manipulation of aggregate demand through monetary policy does not affect inflation and so policymakers cannot affect inflation. We estimate the monetary policy rules implied by a variety of alternative Phillips curves; our preferred model is based on a Phillips curve that is flat when output is close to equilibrium. We find that policy rates do not respond to inflation when the output gap is small, a situation that characterised most of the “Great Moderation” period.     

“I even met happy gypsies”

Economic studies of the Roma population, which is the largest and the poorest ethnic minority in Europe, remain sparse due to the limited availability of appropriate micro level data. This paper provides a comparative analysis of life satisfaction between Roma and non‐Roma young adults aged between 15 and 24 years using survey data collected from Serbia in 2010 and from Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2011. Results from raw answers show that the young Roma population living in settlements is less satisfied with life than non‐Roma. However, we find instead that the former group is more satisfied once we account for the fact that Roma have more disadvantaged characteristics on average. Also, Roma young adults expect a better life within one year compared to the non‐Roma in Serbia while there is no difference in Bosnia and Herzegovina.     

Ecological Intuition versus Economic “Reason”

This paper discusses the discount rate to be used in projects aimed at preserving the environment. The model has two different goods: one is the usual consumption good whose production may increase exponentially, and the other is an environmental good whose quality remains limited. The stylized world we describe is fully determined by four parameters, reflecting basic preferences, “ecological” and intergenerational concerns, and feasibility constraints. We define an ecological discount rate and examine its connections with the usual interest rate and the optimized growth rate. We discuss, in this simple world, different forms of the precautionary principle.     

Choice modeling at the “market stall”: Individual versus collective interest in environmental valuation

The market stall, or valuation workshop, has recently been proposed as a way of addressing some of the limitations of conventional stated preference analysis. In this paper, we attempt to combine a participatory technique similar to the “citizens' jury” with choice modelling, a stated preference technique increasingly being applied in environmental economics. Our focus is on how changes in the context of decision-making (between choices made in isolation and those made in a group setting, and between choices made on individual well being versus collective criteria) produce differences in estimated welfare measures. The empirical context used is that of water quality improvements under the Water Framework Directive, the most significant reform in water legislation in the European Union for many years. We find that the choice experiment format can be successfully implemented in a valuation workshop and that moving from individual to collective choice produces, in this instance, a rather interesting change in both values and preferences which depends on the respondent's interests.     

The “similarity” and “heterogeneity” theses in studying innovation: evidence from the end-of-life vehicle case

The paper seeks to understand how eight companies in the European car industry responded to changing business conditions under the threat of regulation on the waste problem of end-of-life vehicles. It was observed that the companies pursued diverging innovation tracks in dealing with the regulatory pressure, although competing in the same markets and subject to similar regulatory pressure. The case is interesting to consider in the light of recent discussions of differences in styles of innovation. The question then is whether any sort of style of innovation may be distinguished in the diverging innovation tracks. The objective of the paper is to add to these discussions by considering the results of this case study in the light of “similarity” and heterogeneity hypotheses that may be advanced around “styles” of innovation.     

TESTING CATCHING‐UP BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: “GROWTH RESISTANCE” AND SOMETIMES “GROWTH TRAGEDY”

This paper provides empirical evidence that there is no convergence between the GDP per‐capita of the developing countries since 1950. Relying upon recent econometric methodologies (non‐stationary long‐memory models, wavelet models and time‐varying factor representation models), we show that the transition paths to long‐run growth (the catch‐up dynamics) are very persistent over time and non‐stationary, thereby yielding a variety of potential steady states (conditional convergence). Our findings do not support the idea according to which the developing countries share a common factor (such as technology) that eliminates per‐capita output divergence in the very long run. Instead, we conclude that growth is an idiosyncratic phenomenon that yields different forms of transitional economic performance: growth tragedy (some countries with an initial low level of per‐capita income diverge from the richest ones), growth resistance (with many countries experiencing a low speed of growth convergence), and rapid convergence.     

“Large” versus “Small” Players: A Closer Look at the Dynamics of Speculative Attacks

What is the role of “large players” (e.g., hedge funds) in speculative attacks? Recent work suggests that large players move early to induce smaller agents to attack. However, many observers argue that large players move late in order to benefit from interest‐rate differentials. We propose a model in which large players can do both. Using data on currency trading by foreign (large) and local (small) players, we find that foreign players moved last in three attacks on the Norwegian krone during the 1990s. During the attack on the Swedish krona after the Russian moratorium in 1998, foreign players moved early. Gains by delaying attack were small, however, because interest rates did not increase.     

CAN CHINA'S “MINI-BANG” SUCCEED?

Despite the phenomenal success of China's economic reform, the Chinese economy encounters a series of increasingly perilous problems, such as the recurrence of a "boon-and-bust" cycle, inflation, corruption, and regional disparity. This paper argues that the root of these problems is the discrepancy between the reforms in the macropolicy environment and the reforms in the micro-management institution and resource allocation system. In October 1993, the Chinese government introduced a reform package in a bid to make the macro-policy environment more consistent with the liberalized micro-management institution and resource allocation system. However, the traditional macro-policy environment was formed endogenously to facilitate implementing the "catching-up and forging-ahead" development strategy. Unless, the Chinese government abandons that strategy, it cannot complete the reforms in the macro-policy environment and it cannot uproot the problems appearing in the reform process.     

“Love of wealth” and economic growth

In a Ramsey–Cass–Koopmans growth framework it is shown that for an optimum a benevolent social planner cannot have an excessive “love of wealth”. With a “right” “love of wealth” an optimum exists and implies higher long‐run per‐capita capital, income, and consumption relative to the standard model. This has important implications for comparative development trajectories. The optimum implies dynamic efficiency with the possibility of getting arbitrarily close to the golden rule where long‐run per‐capita consumption is maximal. It is shown that the optimal path attains its steady state more slowly. Thus, the beneficial effects of love of wealth materialize later than in the standard model. Furthermore, the economy can be decentralized as a competitive private ownership economy. One can then identify “love of wealth” with the “spirit of capitalism.” The paper thus implies that one needs a “right” level of the “spirit of capitalism” to realize any beneficial effects for the long run.     

“Fair marriages”: An impossibility

For marriage markets [Gale, D. and Shapley, L.S., 1962, College admissions and the stability of marriage, American Mathematical Monthly 69, 9–15.] so-called fair matchings do not always exist. We show that restoring fairness by using monetary transfers is not always possible: there are marriage markets where no amount of money can guarantee the existence of a fair allocation.     

MONITORING ABSOLUTE AND RELATIVE POVERTY: “NOT ENOUGH” IS NOT THE SAME AS “MUCH LESS”

Financial poverty indicators assess which people have few financial resources and are thereby at risk of having an unacceptably low living standard. Most countries use one or several “official” poverty indicators, but they typically use either an absolute or a relative benchmark to determine what is unacceptable; absolute benchmarks are based on basic needs or rights while relative benchmarks depend on what is considered to be a “normal” living standard. Applying the absolute U.S. and the relative EU poverty indicators on the U.S. and 15 EU member states, this research shows that it makes sense to use both benchmarks.