中国居民收入差距的变动趋势——基于双二元动态框架的实证

为揭示城乡转换和经济开放双重约束下中国居民收入差距变动的总体趋势和特征,文章构建了一个四部门的双二元动态分析框架,并检验了其现实适用性,实证结果较好地支持了这一分析框架的有效性,研究表明:巨大城乡差距的存在决定了我国居民收入分配总体上仍将呈现出“倒U”趋势,而对外经济开放则会显著影响到这一过程的实现形式;从根本上看,重新审视二元结构政策,消除收入分配的平均主义倾向,进一步加快城镇化进程、逐步有序地推动对外开放构成了优化我国收入分配结构、逐步缩小居民收入差距的基本约束。     

我国个人收入差距的变动特征及其调节政策

中国居民收入差距的长期变动虽然也表现为倒U曲线,但这种变动的原因不能简单地用库兹涅茨倒U假说来解释,因为库兹涅茨倒U假说是经济增长型倒U假说,而中国居民收入差距的变动是与经济体制改革紧密相关的,中国的倒U假说可以称为制度变迁型倒U假说。     

关于公有经济收入差别倒U理论的讨论与验证(上)

在经济发展方式逐步从增长型向分配型、从生产型向消费型、从建设型向民生型转变的过程中,回顾和总结学术界关于居民收入分配差别的讨论显然是必要的。文章从多个方面回顾、分析和考察了"公有经济收入差别倒U理论"这一理论模型提出后的争论焦点及演变过程,包括围绕这一理论所讨论的主要内容,比如有关公有制经济与私有制经济条件的比较分析,有关劳动差别、劳动供求、剩余/生计比以及农村收入差别大于城镇差别等两部门内部各种因素的趋势、二元结构部门转换影响收入差别的讨论,有关国有资本积累及改革引起的民营资本积累、税收政策和体制改革对收入差别变动趋势的影响的讨论,以及这一理论在中国的验证等。分析表明,目前中国居民收入差别还在沿着公有经济收入差别倒U曲线的前半段逐步呈"阶梯形"上升,但上升的势头已经趋缓,并且个别方面比如城市化等因素导致的收入差别已经初现下降趋势。     

外贸对经济增长的影响分析:理论与经验模型验证

国际贸易理论的核心问题是探究贸易利益的产生及其分配,国际贸易与经济增长具有密切联系。理论分析和经验证据均表明,一国外贸规模对经济增长有着重要作用,对外贸易的变动往往成为决定一国经济增长趋势的关键因素。文章从理论和经验模型上对我国近10多年来外贸和经济增长的关系给出了相关的实证检验,旨在探讨并揭示国际贸易促进经济增长的内在机制。     

从库兹涅茨收入分配说看居民收入差距

库兹涅茨收入分配假说是针对发展中国家的收入分配问题提出的。认为发展中国家在早期经济增长过程中居民收入分配的拉犬是必然的．而这种差距会随着国民经济的持续发展而自动弥合。这一假说在逻辑上有一定的合理性．但我国居民收入分配的特殊情况却对这一假说提出了现实的挑战．解决目前我国居民收入差距过大的问题迫切要求我国政府的有效作为。     

重庆双重二元经济结构的形成、测度与演进

传统二元经济理论是研究发展中国家和地区城乡统筹发展的基础性理论.但这一理论在解释重庆地区城乡经济发展状况时并不令人满意,也使得建立在此基础之上的城乡统筹发展政策出现偏差.针对重庆地区社会经济的现实特征,本文对传统的二元经济结构理论进行了修正,提出了双重二元经济结构理论,结合重庆的现实情况阐述了该理论的基本内容,并通过实证分析加以印证,以此对重庆地区城乡统筹发展的路径和方向提出基于该理论的政策建议.     

"倒U假说"与我国转型期收入差距

转型期中国居民收入差距的演变是否存在着类似于库兹涅兹“倒U假说”的演变趋势呢？本文分析得出的基本判断是：收入差距呈现总体扩大趋势，还看不到类似于“倒U假说”的演变趋势。本文对影响转型期收入差距的因素作了分类分析，通过对体制、发展、政策和开放四个方面影响因素的考察，对改革开放以来我国收入差距演变的原因和机制提供了一个解释框架。     

中国的劳动收入份额为什么趋于下降?——基于二元经济模型的观察与解释

新古典经济学的要素分配理论以劳动力是稀缺资源作为其前提假设,与我国二元经济条件下的现实情况存在较大差距,因而在分析我国劳动收入份额下降时解释力不足。文章修正了新古典经济学的劳动力稀缺要素假定,基于劳动力无限供给假定的二元经济模型和中国数据表现出的异质性特征,建立了一个分析二元经济中劳动收入份额影响因素的理论框架,并运用该理论框架解释了中国劳动收入份额趋降的原因,提出促进劳动密集型技术进步、提高人力资本禀赋、审慎干预劳动市场等方面的政策建议。     

居民收入分配不平等对经济增长影响的定量分析

通过运用简便算法测算1981～2005年中国城市基尼系数和农村基尼系数,并采用城乡加权法计算全国基尼系数,研究结果表明,中国居民收入的基尼系数呈现出逐年增大的趋势,已经接近基尼系数0．4的国际警戒线,居民收入“两极分化”的趋势愈来愈明显。同时对基尼系数与经济增长关系进行回归分析,证明收入分配不平等对经济增长的影响符合库兹涅茨的“倒U假说理论”。     

国际贸易、FDI与资源环境关系的现实、理论与启示

文章立足发展中国家视角,把国际贸易、FDI与资源环境的现实冲突归结成资源环境掠夺和污染转移两个方面,对国际贸易、FDI与资源环境关系的相关理论基于理论假说的分类进行了评述,并对我国如何处理这三者关系提出了建议.     

对偶性一般均衡分析与国际贸易理论的深化-基于迪克西特与诺曼著《国际贸易理论》的分析

该文以迪克西特与诺曼合著的《国际贸易理论》一书为参照,分析了现代贸易理论所面临的三种挑战,探讨了对偶性一般均衡分析方法在应对这些实践挑战与深化国际贸易理论的比较优势,并且揭示了对偶性一般均衡分析方法由一种特殊的分析技术成长为国际贸易研究中的主流分析范式的过程与原因.     

Trade Theory and Factor Intensities: An Interpretive Essay

Since Heckscher's 1919 pioneering contribution to international trade theory, the concept of "factor intensity" has played a key role in explanations of trade patterns and the consequences of international trade for local income distribution. This essay discusses the uses that have been made of the concept and its applicability to problems that are couched in higher dimensions. The author suggests that it has an important role to play in "new" trade theory in which the strong link between commodity prices and costs of production may be removed by the existence of imperfectly competitive markets.     

ACCOUNTING FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY

The analysis of international trade, finance and adjustment is hampered by major statistical inadequacies. In theory current account balances of all economies that make up the world economy should add to zero. However, available balance-of-payments data and other major statistical sources show a huge discrepancy. A major source of the discrepancy is found in the inadequate recording of international financial assets and liabilities and related factor income payments. In this paper the author proposes a global economic accounting framework, labelled as the World Accounting Matrix (WAM), which integrates world investment-savings balances, trade flows, factor payments and international flow of funds into one consistent data system on a source-use basis. Data discrepancies can thus be traced and adjusted more systematically. The WAM will provide a new tool for studies on international trade, debt and adjustment and present the accounting framework and the consistent data basis for models of the world economy.     

Institutionalism and New Trade Theory: Rethinking Comparative Advantage and Trade Policy

Gomory and Baumol (2000), and Samuelson (2004) have raised concerns about international trade’s future impact on U.S. national income. The focus is how globalization may affect the size and distribution across countries of gains from trade. Though their analysis is developed using a pure trade theoretical framework, it has strands in common with institutionalist thinking. Their findings spotlight the need for a new U.S. trade policy agenda aimed at maximizing the U.S. share of gains from trade, and complementing conventional Keynesian open economy macroeconomic analysis.     

Competitive and Comparative Advantage: Towards a Unified Theory of International Trade

The field of international business/economics is largely dualistic in nature. On one hand is the economics literature which has, for two centuries, focused on the notion of comparative advantage (technology, factor proportions) while on the other is the business literature which has recently developed the concept of competitive advantage. This paper presents a reconciliation of the two based on global value chain/supply chain analysis and the concept of vertical comparative advantage. It is shown that the theory of competitive advantage's epistemological comparative advantage lies with its ‘how to’ approach to developing an advantage, while the theory of comparative advantage's epistemological comparative advantage lies with its account of ‘what is’ and that both are complementary. However, it is also argued that the failure to recognize this complementarity as well as the shortcomings of each have prevented and continue to prevent the emergence of an integrated, empirically-consistent theory of international trade – in short, prevented us from taking advantage of the gains from epistemological trade.     

Labor Markets and Kaleidoscopic Comparative Advantage

Capturing the notion of kaleidoscopic comparative advantage ( Bhagwati, 1998 ), we show that international trade increases the volatility of profitability. In this framework, we address the labor market implications of an increase in openness, when insurance and credit markets are imperfect. With kaleidoscopic comparative advantage, trade raises the likelihood of firm shutdown and worker displacement, which, in equilibrium, affects wage contracts. In a simple model, we analyze the consequences for wage levels, earnings volatility, job instability, and income distribution, of the openness of previously nontraded industries to international trade.     

农业品牌发展问题探讨——以山东农业为例

山东是一个农业大省,农业出口贸易占全国出口总量的1/4。然而,与自身实力及其出口贸易相比,农业品牌的发展则明显滞后。农业品牌发展的滞后,严重影响了山东农业竞争力尤其是国际竞争力的进一步提升及其出口贸易和农民收入的持续增长,制约了农村经济的快速发展及其山东农业强省地位的巩固。面对现实,必须解放思想,转变观念,大力培育品牌意识,坚定不移地实施以强势农业品牌开拓国际市场的新战略;同时,加大技术创新力度,加强农业品牌基地建设,大力扶持龙头企业,尽快建立强势农业品牌培育体系;加快生态环境建设,搞好农业环境监测工作,为强势农业品牌的培育和国际市场的开拓创造一个良好的生态环境。     

Linder Revisited: Trade and Development in the Spanish Economy

The literature has tended to treat Linder’s hypothesis with excessive simplicity given the absence of any formalization for this intuitive theory on trade potential in manufacturers, closely related to the intra‐industry trade paradigm. Against this background, in this paper we first propose a complete empirical model of bilateral trade containing all the determinants suggested by Linder, with special emphasis being placed on non‐homothetic preferences, national income distribution, international economic convergence and geographic distance. We then test the model in an appropriate case, namely that of Spain during the period of its economic transition running from approximately 1959 to 1986. This period was characterized by increasing openness and structural change, as well as by convergence until that country’s integration into the then European Economic Community. The results confirm the importance of the characteristics of internal demand, essentially of income distribution and non‐homothetic preferences. We find that trade horizons delimited by bilateral proximity in development and geographical distance, together with multilateral convergence in economic development are the main indicators for selecting trade partners as markets and suppliers, thereby reinforcing the idea that foreign markets can be considered as an extension of the national market.     

Tourism,trade and growth: the case of Cyprus

Although the relationship between international trade and economic growth has found a wide application area in the literature over the years, this can not be said about tourism and growth or trade and tourism. This study employs the bounds test for cointegration and Granger causality tests to investigate a long-run equilibrium relationship between tourism, trade and real income growth, and the direction of causality among themselves for Cyprus. Results reveal that tourism, trade and real income growth are cointegrated; thus, a long-run equilibrium relationship can be inferred between these three variables. On the other hand, Granger causality test results suggest that real income growth stimulates growth in international trade (both exports and imports) and international tourist arrivals to the island. Furthermore, growth in international trade (both exports and imports) also stimulates an increase in international tourist arrivals to Cyprus. And finally, real import growth stimulate growth in real exports in the case of Cyprus.