Okun's Law Does the Austrian unemployment–GDP relationship exhibit structural breaks?

Okun's Law postulates an inverse relationship between movements of the unemployment rate and the real gross domestic product (GDP). Initial empirical estimates for US data indicate that a two to three percent GDP growth rate above the natural or average GDP growth rate causes unemployment to decrease by one percentage point and vice versa. In this investigation we check whether this postulated relationship exhibits structural breaks by means of Markov-Chain Monte Carlo methods. We estimate a regression model, where the parameters are allowed to switch between different states and the switching process is Markov. As a by-product we derive an estimate of the current state within the periods considered. Using quarterly Austrian data on unemployment and real GDP from 1977 to 1995 we infer only one state, i.e. there are no structural breaks. The estimated parameters demand for an excess GDP growth rate of 4.16% to decrease unemployment by 1 percentage point. Since only one state is inferred, we conclude that the Austrian economy exhibits a stable relationship between unemployment and GDP growth. First version received: January 2000/Final version received: October 2000     

R&D spending in the high-tech sector and economic growth

The present paper provides new estimates of the impact of investment in R&D on long-term economic growth. In particular, we estimate a dynamic empirical growth model using panel data for OECD countries from 1970 to 2004. This study is the first to investigate whether the specialization of R&D activities (i.e. share of R&D investment in the high-tech sector) has an additional effect on GDP per working age population. Using a system GMM estimator in order to control for endogeneity, we find that both the ratio of business enterprises’ R&D expenditures to GDP and the share of R&D investment in the high-tech sector have strong positive effects on GDP per capita and GDP per hour worked in the long term.     

Inequality and economic growth: the role of initial income

We estimate a panel model where the relationship between inequality and GDP per capita growth depends on countries’ initial incomes. Estimates of the model show that the relationship between inequality and GDP per capita growth is significantly decreasing in countries’ initial incomes. Results from instrumental variables regressions show that in Low Income Countries transitional growth is boosted by greater income inequality. In High Income Countries inequality has a significant negative effect on transitional growth. For the median country in the world, that in the year 2015 had a PPP GDP per capita of around 10000USD, IV estimates predict that a 1 percentage point increase in the Gini coefficient decreases GDP per capita growth over a 5-year period by over 1 percentage point; the long-run effect on the level of GDP per capita is around ??5%.     

中国经济增长形势分析

一今年是世纪之交的一年。研究当前经济形势,不能不对本世纪最后10年的经济运行作一个回顾。90年代我国经济是从对80年代后期一段过热进行治理过程中出现的低谷起步的。ＧＤＰ年增长率从1990年38%谷底,迅速上升到1992年142%的高峰之后,自1993年起平稳回落到1999年的71%,已经连续下降了7年之久。在我国经济增长的11次波动、在改革开放后的4次波动中,这次经济增长速度的下滑时间是最长的一次,平均每年回落1个百分点。对于这7年经济增长速度的下降应当怎么看?不能一概而论,要划分前后两个阶段来看。前一个阶段是1993年到1996年,针对1992—1993…     

THE "REAL" CHINESE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) FOR THE PRE-REFORM PERIOD 1952–77

This paper develops an econometric method based on the relationship between GDP and NMP to estimate an unknown Chinese GDP series of 1952–77 using recently available Chinese GDP data of 1978–90 and a reconstructed NMP series of 1952–90. In this manner, a long-term (1952–90) series of China's GDP has been obtained for long-term analyses. A reassessment of Chinese economic performance of 1952–90 using this series suggests that the paper's estimate provides a reasonable reflection of both the Chinese pre-and post-reform economic growth in terms of production structure, growth pattern and policy changes. A series of China's per capita GDP in U.S. dollars which is comparable to the World Bank's estimate for the early 1980s has also been obtained.     

The Growth-maximizing Tax Rate

This note is a reply to Professor Kennedy's criticism of the specification of my model on taxation and economic growth and my testing of the degree of homogeneity of the growth-generating function in an earlier paper in this journal. I find that the model relating the pattern in the growth rate to the pattern in the division of the share of output is not affected by incorporating factor inputs into the model, that the function is homogeneous of degree one, and that the growth-maximizing tax rate of about 20 percent of GDP stands, as in the original paper.     

NEW ESTIMATES OF THE U.S. ECONOMY'S POTENTIAL GROWTH RATE

Using an Okun's law framework, the analysis here estimates potential growth for the 1990s as measured by both fixed- and chain-weighted GDP. It then decomposes estimated potential growth rates into labor productivity growth (LPG) and labor input growth (LIG) using a regression analysis to separate secular from cyclical changes. It compares estimates of potential output and trend productivity growth for the 1990s with estimates from earlier periods. Results indicate that eliminating the substitution bias associated with fixed-weight measures of real GDP raises estimated potential GDP growth in the 1980s but lowers it in the 1990s. A slowdown in labor force growth, with little or no change in long-term productivity growth, largely accounts for the implied slowdown in potential growth.     

Are the FDI inflow spillover effects on Malaysia's economic growth input driven?

This paper inspects the influence of human capital, labour force, and absorptive capacity, physical capital as a control variable, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and gross domestic product (GDP) on Malaysia's productivity growth. A time series quarterly data from the period of 1999 to 2008 was used. The effects of FDI inflows on human capital, labour force, absorptive capacity and physical capital were investigated. The Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression was applied to estimate the data in the first step and in the second step productivity indicators were calculated. The results show that the FDI inflows and inputs used are negatively contributed to total factor productivity (TFP). Meanwhile, FDI plays a significant role in achieving economic growth through input driven as indicated by the contribution of the TFP. In this regard, a significant positive relationship between human capital, labour force and absorptive capacity which determines the spillover effect on Malaysian economic growth (GDP) was found and the physical capital has shown negative relationship.     

Does the welfare state induce risk-taking?

In cross-national data on individual and country-level characteristics, the variance of log annual income is shown to correlate positively with indicators of redistribution. The database comes from the Panel Comparability (PACO) project, which provides uniquely comparable cross-national panel data, including both Eastern and Western Europe and the US. A random effects permanent income regression is used to estimate income variance. The variance estimates are then regressed on individual and country characteristics. The results indicate robustly that various measures of risk are higher in countries with a higher share of social spending in GDP. The evidence can be interpreted as support for the argument that the Welfare State encourages risk-taking and thereby economic growth.     

大连城市居民周末休闲时间的利用特征

本文利用大连居民日常生活行为调查的结果,在比较居民工作日与周末休闲活动的基本特征基础上,从个人属性、社会属性和空间属性角度,对大连市居民周末休闲特征进行了较为详细的分析。分析中对居民社会属性与其休闲时间利用─—尤其是活动方式的选择──进行了相关分析,并引入时间地理学方法描画了居民周末活动路径,为城市休闲规划提供了基础知识。     

Household Satellite Account for France

We estimate in a household satellite account (HHSA) the value of French domestic production in 2010 and 1998, using the input method and following Eurostat's recommendations. In line with previous studies, we find that extending the system of national accounts (SNA) frontier of production to domestic activities (house chores, cooking, care …) has a sizeable effect on key macroeconomic indicators (+33 percent GDP, ?5 p.p. GDP growth, +50 percent disposable income, +58 percent consumption, and ?10 p.p. of purchasing power growth). We conduct a sensitivity analysis to various methodological issues which have not yet been settled by an international benchmark. Quantitatively, the two most important issues are the boundary of household production—we favor a relatively narrow definition—and the use of a gross or a net wage—we prefer gross wage‐. However, estimates are much less sensitive to otherwise greatly debated issues such as which substitute wage to use.     

Nowcasting National GDP Growth Using Small Business Sales Growth

This study shows that the Xero Small Business Index (XSBI) sales growth data can be used to predict the same period's national nominal GDP growth, with high accuracy, in the United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand. Findings show that XSBI sales growth can predict the same month's GDP growth around two weeks earlier than the official release in the United Kingdom. On the other hand, the three-month average of the XSBI sales growth can predict the same quarter's GDP growth, six weeks earlier than the official release in New Zealand and five weeks earlier than the official release in Australia.     

MEASURING THE ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF TRANSITION ECONOMIES: SOME LESSONS FROM CHINESE EXPERIENCE

This article quantifies the comparative performance of China in several dimensions. Firstly, it shows that China's move from a command to a market economy was less abrupt and more successful than that of 29 other economies making a similar transition. Secondly, while official estimates show annual GDP growth of 9.6 percent in 1978–2003, this is reduced to 7.9 percent after adjustment for exaggeration of industrial performance and growth in non-material services. Thirdly, as the exchange rate understates China's achievement, a purchasing power parity (PPP) converter is necessary to measure comparative level of performance. Our PPP converter shows that China in 2005 was the world's second largest economy, with a GDP about 80 percent of the U.S. It is assumed that China will have overtaken the U.S. as the world's biggest economy before 2015. Until recently, the World Bank estimate of the PPP for China was close to that of Maddison, but the Bank's new estimate for 2005 shows Chinese GDP about half this level. The Bank's new estimates for China and other Asian countries are not plausible, and this paper advances several reasons for rejecting them. Finally, energy use per head of population is a good deal smaller than that of the U.S., and its total energy use for a much bigger population is likely to be somewhat smaller than that of the U.S. in 2030. However, heavy dependence on dirty coal means that it will have bigger carbon emissions than the U.S. This is a major problem as Beijing and other big cities already have severe pollution problems.     

The impact of the Soviet trade shock on central and East European economies

The paper examines the significance of what is called the Soviet trade shock on central and East European economies. The analysis involves two steps: first, the terms-of-trade effect of replacing the CMEA trading rules by market rules is estimated, and second, the impact of the loss of export markets in the former Soviet Union is assessed. The results of estimating the terms-of-trade effect for Hungary and Poland show that the income losses in 1990–1991 have not been as substantial as commonly believed (3.5 percent of GDP and 1.0 percent of GDP, respectively). The decomposition of the fall of total Soviet imports in 1991 into three categories, reflecting the impact of domestic recession, reduction of trade with ex-CMEA, and diversion of imports from ex-CMEA to western countries allowed us to estimate the CMEA-induced part of the trade collapse at 36 to 49 percent of the total fall of exports to the Soviet Union by the CEECs (except Romania), with the impact of domestic recession being in all cases stronger than the CMEA dissolution effect. An attempt has also been made to estimate the impact of the Soviet trade shock on GDP levels in CEECs. The results obtained indicate that the collapse of exports to the Soviet Union in 1991 may have been responsible for about one third of the officially reported GDP fall in Czechoslovakia and Poland, and for more than half of the GDP fall in Bulgaria and Hungary, but the impact of the CMEA-induced export fall was much smaller. The impact of the Soviet trade shock on Romania was negligible. The results obtained suggest a smaller impact of the Soviet trade shock on Hungary and Poland, as compared with some other studies. The conclusions should, however, be treated with caution, because of many untested assumptions underlying the analysis.I would like to acknowledge helpful comments received on earlier drafts of the paper by Daniel Gross, Dieter Hesse, Gabor Oblath, and Mica Panic. The views expressed in the paper are, however, my own responsibility.     

基于STR模型的中国宏观经济 周期拐点的识别与预测

本文应用平滑转换模型（STR）对我国经济周期的运行特点及拐点识别进行深入研究,并成功识别出经济周期拐点。研究发现我国GDP机制转换发生在自身滞后1期,增长率96%是扩张与收缩的临界点;固定投资机制转换发生在自身的滞后4期,增长率19%是扩张与收缩的临界点;固定资产投资对GDP的拉动效应具有较为缓慢的调整特征和滞后效应,机制转换发生在固定资产投资的滞后2期。     

INDUSTRIAL AND AGGREGATE MEASURES OF PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN CHINA, 1982–2000

We estimate productivity growth for 33 industries covering the entire Chinese economy using a time series of input–output tables covering 1982–2000. Capital input is measured using detailed investment data by asset and labor input uses demographic information from household surveys. We find a wide range of productivity performance at the industry level. We then show how these industry growth accounts may be consistently aggregated to deliver a decomposition of aggregate GDP growth. For the 1982–2000 period aggregate TFP growth was 2.5 percent per year; decelerating from a rapid rate in the early 1980s to negative growth during 1994–2000. The main source of growth during the 1982–2000 period was capital accumulation, with a small negative contribution from the reallocation of factors across industries.     

Assessing the Possible Antipoverty Effects of Recent Rises in Age‐Specific Minimum Wages in New Zealand

Real minimum wages increased by nearly 33 percent for adults and 123 percent for teenagers in New Zealand between 1999 and 2008. Where fewer than 2 percent of workers were being paid a minimum wage at the outset of this sample period, more than 8 percent of adult workers and 60 percent of teenage workers were receiving hourly earnings close to the minimum wage by the end of this period. These policy changes provide a unique opportunity to estimate the effects of the minimum wage on poverty. Although minimum wage workers are more likely to live in the poorest households, they are relatively widely dispersed throughout the income distribution. This is particularly true of teenage minimum wage workers. Furthermore, low‐income households often do not contain any working members. We estimate that a 10 percent increase in minimum wages, even without a loss in employment or hours of work, would lower the relative poverty rate by less than one‐tenth of a percentage point.     

Forecasting China's GDP growth using dynamic factors and mixed-frequency data

Forecasting GDP growth is important and necessary for Chinese government to set GDP growth target. To fully and efficiently utilize macroeconomic and financial information, this paper attempts to forecast China's GDP growth using dynamic predictors and mixed-frequency data. The dynamic factor model is first applied to select dynamic predictors among large amount of monthly macroeconomic and daily financial data and then the mixed data sampling regression is applied to forecast quarterly GDP growth based on the selected monthly and daily predictors. Empirical results show that forecasts using dynamic predictors and mixed-frequency data have better accuracy comparing to traditional forecasting methods. Moreover, forecasts with leads and forecast combination can further improve forecast performance.     

Economic Growth and Investment in Education: How Allocation Matters

This article proposes an approach to answering two questions: first, does investment in education help growth; second, does the allocation of investment in education matter? I develop a model where individual ability is heterogeneous and education both trains students and reveals their suitability for further training. I use UNESCO data on educational enrollments and spending to estimate the efficiency of existing educational allocations in a panel of countries. A cross-country growth decomposition regression shows that the correlation of human capital capital accumulation and GDP growth is not significant in countries with poor allocations but is significant and positive in countries with better allocations.     

Privatization and economic growth in Australia: the shorthand of a long process

The impact of privatization on economic growth has been little investigated relative to disaggregated approaches. A growth accounting framework is used here to investigate the impact of privatization on growth for the Australian economy. The contribution of public capital to the private sector and whether the growth process is endogenous or Solow is evaluated. Separate measures of public and private capital are computed in order to estimate their impacts with labour on Australian gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the period 1960 to 2003. A simple growth rates version is found preferred by stationarity and other tests. Labour growth appears to strongly positively influence the growth of GDP. In contrast, public capital growth has no statistically significant effect on GDP growth, or on private capital productivity. The data are consistent with the hypothesis that the coefficients of the growth equation are the same before and during privatization.