Fiscal Policy in Real Time*

In this paper, I estimate the ex ante or intentional cyclical stance of fiscal policy in OECD countries. I use the fiscal plans reported at the time of budgeting, together with other information available to fiscal policy‐makers in real time. Indeed, fiscal plans might be significantly different from ex post outcomes because governments do not have complete control over their implementation, which is influenced by several exogenous factors. When fiscal‐policy rules are estimated using real‐time data, I show in this paper that OECD countries have often planned a counter‐cyclical fiscal stance, especially during economic expansions. This contrasts with conventional findings based on actual data, which tend to point towards a‐cyclicality or pro‐cyclicality. Forecast errors for the government structural balance and the output gap play a central role in explaining the differences between estimates based on ex ante and ex post data.     

The Economic Efficiency of Policy Reform and Partial Market Liberalization under Transaction Costs

The article presents an integrated analysis of the effects of domestic and trade policy reform on resource allocation and welfare under transaction costs. It develops a general multiagent, multicommodity model, where transaction costs are the costs of resources used in the exchange process. The influence of domestic and trade policy (including both price and quantity instruments) on distorted market equilibrium is analysed. Alternative concepts of distorted equilibrium are presented and investigated. They provide a basis for evaluating the effects of multilateral partial market liberalization on resource allocation and welfare under transaction costs. New conditions are derived under which multilateral policy reforms generate Pareto improvements.     

Policy consequences of limited cognitive ability

This paper analyses the welfare effects of price restrictions on private contracting in a world where agents have a limited cognitive ability. We deal with that by assuming that people compute the costs and benefits of entering a transaction with an error. We first discuss an example of an auction that will attract the least efficient buyers, because these are those who have made the largest mistake. We then study the case for government intervention when the government knows the distribution of true costs and benefits as well as that of errors. By imposing constraints on transaction prices, the government eliminates some that are on average inefficient - because the price signals that one of the parties has typically grossly overestimated its benefit from participation. This policy may increase aggregate welfare even though some of the transactions being blocked are actually efficient.JEL Classification: D81, J38, K31Gilles Saint-Paul: This paper is based on my Spanish Economic Review lecture at the Spanish Economic Association meeting, Salamanca, December 2002. I am grateful to the organizers for inviting me, and to participants and especially Juan Dolado for their useful comments.     

The Simple Analytics of Illicit Drug Policy

The impact of alternative drug policy objectives, specifically harm reduction/harm minimisation or prohibition, is unclear. The literature is confusing. This article conceptualises the causal connection between drug consumption and health harm (or reduced health status) then clarifies the implication of ‘drug related harm’. By applying some geometrical tools from economics, the choice of policy objective is analysed. The preferences of policy advocates are then incorporated. Policy advocates are conceived as arguing that decision‐makers and consumers should adopt their preferences between drugs and health harm. With this approach, the difference between alternative drug policies, in particular prohibition and harm minimisation/reduction, is demonstrated.     

Using Psychology to Improve Economic Policy

In this Australian Treasury seminar, I discuss the contributions that psychology could make to public policy formation via a new field: public policy psychology. Behavioural economics provides a precedent for my new field of public policy psychology. Unlike economics, psychology provides a solid scientific model of how individuals make decisions. I discuss shortcomings of economics in policy formation: model blindness, the focus on evidence supporting theories, the focus on markets, plus the importance of elements left out of conventional economic models (for example, irrational decision‐makers). I end by discussing two Treasury case studies: the mining tax and government responses to the Global Financial Crisis.     

A Policy Perspective on European Unemployment

This paper focuses on three major themes in the policy debate on European unemployment. A first issue concerns the causes of unemployment. We point to the diversity of the unemployment performance in Europe and plead for a policy approach which takes into account the interdependence between employment, labour costs and social protection. As a second major theme, we evaluate existing EU policies. While a EU social dimension is gradually developing, the European level is far from providing a comprehensive policy framework at this stage. A third issue relates to the national policy dimension and is linked to Europe's quest for a third way. We compare the corporatist and competitive labour market approach.     

Foreign Policy and Ethnography: A Sceptical Intervention

This article makes a methodological argument about ‘studying up’ in foreign policy bureaucracies. Although recent years have witnessed a growing interest in ethnography across the social sciences, including the study of foreign policy and diplomacy, theoretical reflections on the methodology as such greatly outnumber those that actually attempt ethnographic accounts of foreign policy institutions. This imbalance results in large part from the difficulty of fieldwork in these settings. Drawing on six years of research on EU external relations, including 105 interviews with foreign policy professionals, this article lays out some of the difficulties and thereby clarifies the benefits and costs of such fieldwork. More broadly, the article highlights some of the methodological challenges in interpretative research inside the institutions of foreign policy. My concern is not with ethnography or foreign policy as such; I rather examine the specific challenges of conducting fieldwork informed by ethnographic methodology inside foreign policy bureaucracies. The article advises caution about the ever-widening use of the term ‘ethnography’ in the study of policy.     

The Challenges of Climate Policy

Climate policy planners and the public should be aware of both economic challenges and arguments that may influence the intensity of the climate policies with which they have to cope. This article examines six economic challenges: cap‐and‐trade versus taxes, non‐price regulations, energy efficiency policies, mitigation versus adaptation, trade effects, and transmission planning. Three additional challenges affect the end itself: ‘fat tails’, discount rates, and whether environmental protection should be evaluated by willingness to pay. If future generations cannot compensate the present for climate policy costs, climate policy is inherently redistributive and cannot be evaluated through cost–benefit analysis alone.     

Precautionary Principle and the Optimal Timing of Environmental Policy Under Ambiguity

I consider a problem in environmental policy design in which I focus on stock pollutants. In particular, I consider stock pollutants that cause severe damage on the environment and do not depreciate at all once they are released into the atmosphere and the ocean. The purposes of this paper are: (1) to provide an economic foundation for environmental policies based on the precautionary principle and the 1992 Rio Declaration on Environment and Development, and (2) to show that this optimal timing rule has a reservation property. Furthermore, I analyze the effect of an increase in ambiguity on the optimal timing of adopting some environmental policy, and show that an increase in ambiguity decreases the optimal timing of adopting the environmental policy.     

Policy options for afforestation in Flanders

This paper analyses current and alternative afforestation policy instruments in Flanders. First we select forest sites that maximize net social benefits given a constraint on the total area of new forests and then we select policy instruments that yield this optimal combination of sites. For each policy option, we calculate the associated costs for landowners and government as well as net social benefits for society. Our empirical illustration shows that the welfare gain is considerable if the afforestation subsidy is conditioned on an objective criterion rather than a case-by-case approach. Our results also show that it is worthwhile to consider alternative policy instruments, such as auctions, not previously used in Belgian legislation.     

Agricultural Policy Debate: A Survey*

A survey is provided of writings between 1978 and 1985 on or directly relevant to Australian agricultural policy. The areas covered are: background and overview; industry policy, including tariff compensation, home consumption price schemes. quotas, input subsidies and futures trading by marketing boards; stabilization; adjustment and the capital market; and macroeconomics and agriculture. An increasingly critical approach has been taken in identifying sources of inefficiency in agriculture and in considering ways of reducing them. Private interest explanations of policy descisions have received serious study and macroeconomic issues have received increasing attention.     

Climate Policy Under Fat-Tailed Risk: An Application of Dice

Uncertainty plays a significant role in evaluating climate policy, and fat-tailed uncertainty may dominate policy advice. Should we make our utmost effort to prevent the arbitrarily large impacts of climate change under deep uncertainty? In order to answer to this question, we propose a new way of investigating the impact of (fat-tailed) uncertainty on optimal climate policy: the curvature of the optimal carbon tax against the uncertainty. We find that the optimal carbon tax increases as the uncertainty about climate sensitivity increases, but it does not accelerate as implied by Weitzman’s Dismal Theorem. We find the same result in a wide variety of sensitivity analyses. These results emphasize the importance of balancing the costs of climate change against its benefits, also under deep uncertainty.     

Industrial Policy and Firm Heterogeneity

Our concern in this paper is with firm-specific industrial policy. When R&D subsidies or taxes are differentiated among firms, the question arises as to which firms in an industry should receive such support. We analyze a situation where firms differ in their R&D technologies in two distinct ways: in the costs of performing R&D activities and in the output obtained from such activities. We find that the optimal firm-specific industrial policy is affected differently by the two sources of firm heterogeneity. Furthermore, a change in a firm's R&D productivity has an ambiguous effect on the optimal policy towards the firm.
JEL classification: O 31; L 52; F 13     

Policy persistence in environmental regulation

We study the optimal emission standards under uncertain pollution damages and transaction costs associated with policy changes in a dynamic setting. We consider three alternative forms of transactions costs and show that they can lead to different kinds of delays of policy changes or smaller scales of these changes. Thus, policy persistence can be a rational response of forward-looking policy makers to future transaction costs, rather than an inefficient outcome of the current political process.     

Unemployment, Wage Developments and the Economic Policy Mix in Europe

The paper considers the importance of wage formation for the policy mix in Europe. When monetary policy is committed to price stability, unit labour costs are a crucial factor in achieving this objective. Traditional Phillips curve or modern NAIRU models focus on labour market flexibility to achieve coherent wage developments because they take a short run perspective where the capital stock is fixed. However, in a long term perspective, the capital stock adjusts to profit opportunities which depend on the portfolio choices of investors which in turn are influenced by monetary policy. The time path of the price level depends then on a trend that is set by unit labour costs and a mean reverting profit mark-up that is dependent on capital costs. Monetary policy can become growth-supporting, if unit labour costs remain consistent with the central bank's price objective.     

Model Uncertainty, Optimal Monetary Policy and the Preferences of the Fed

Monetary policy in the US is characterized by a substantial degree of inertia. While in principle this may well be the outcome of an optimizing central bank behaviour, the ability of any derived policy rule to match the data relies on so large weights for interest rate smoothing into policy makers' preferences as to be theoretically flawed. In this paper we investigate whether such a puzzle can be interpreted as resulting from the concern of monetary authorities for potential misspecifications of the macroeconomic dynamics. Accordingly, we propose a novel thick modelling approach that incorporates model uncertainty into the identification of central bank's preferences. The thick robust policy rule shows the kind of smoothness observed in the data without resorting to implausible values for the preference parameters.     

员工离职成本测评模型——Cascio模型的修正

在严酷的竞争环境下,人力资源管理愈来愈受到学者们和管理者的关注,但是却少有人研究从成本/收益角度研究人力资源活动和员工的组织行为。Cascio建立的员工离职成本模型奠定了当代学者开展此方面研究的基础。在综合考虑了员工离职对企业的不利影响后,文章对Cascio模型进行了修正,建立了更为系统全面的员工离职成本模型。     

Political Competition, Rent Seeking and the Choice of Environmental Policy Instruments: Comment

In this comment, I analyze Damania's political economy model (Environmental and Resource Economics 13: 415–433, 1999), correcting some flaws and clarifying some ambiguities. I arguethat the political parties are identical at the outset of the game. Onlyafter the parties have chosen the instrument (standards or taxation) and thestrictness of environmental policy do the environmentalists and thepolluting firms know which party to support in the election campaign. Inequilibrium, both parties choose the same platform, so that both have anequal probability of winning the election.     

Federal homelessness policy: A robust political economy approach

In the wake of the financial crisis, the United States government introduced a new large-scale initiative to address homelessness. The policy mandate is marked by both an unprecedented increase in federal funding and a dramatic reallocation of resources toward Housing First, a service model emphasizing immediate housing subsidization. Although this service paradigm has received support from a sizeable literature, our knowledge of its success to date has been limited. This paper sheds light on the unobservable or unmeasured costs of this new centralized approach to ending homelessness. I argue that federal homelessness policy under the Housing First approach 1) generates resource misallocation, 2) exacerbates the Samaritan’s dilemma, and 3) invites rent seeking.     

Post-2008 British Industrial Policy and Constructivist Political Economy: New Directions and New Tensions

The article serves to introduce a number of recent changes in the practices and rationale of British industrial policy since 2008. I observe a shift towards a stronger role for the government and for agencies of industrial policy in the provision of industrial finance, and towards an increasingly discretionary and strategic approach to industrial policy intervention, both of which stand in tension with the neoliberal ‘coordinative discourse’ that continues to structure macroeconomic policy in the post-2008 context. I suggest that this tension is indicative of the emergence of two competing ‘crisis diagnoses’ in government after 2008; one reflecting the neoliberal coordinative discourse that structured economic policymaking prior to 2008, the other at odds with this neoliberal crisis diagnosis. I argue that constructivist analytical frameworks on crisis and political–economic change are insufficiently developed to accommodate these findings. I therefore reflect upon some conceptual and empirical implications that the findings raise for a constructivist analysis of economic policy in the post-2008 context in Britain, before concluding that a more contingent, contested and, crucially, incomplete process of re-alignment in the ideas that structure economic policymaking is underway in Britain than is generally acknowledged.