Socio-ecological explanations for crowding-out effects from economic field experiments in southern Africa

Economic and psychological literature mentions three conditions under which the crowding-out effect of pro-social behaviour is likely to occur and to crowd out citizens' moral obligations to behave co-operatively. I use a framed field experiment on joint extraction from a common-pool resource (CPR) where the crowding-out effect has already been reported before in combination with the trust game carried out in farming communities of Namibia and South Africa to replicate these conditions. The research design and the cross-cultural setting enable to explicitly control for these effects. The results of the experiments support that the crowding-out effect depends on:

• •The nature of the external intervention (controlling vs. supportive external intervention)
• •The degree of participants self-determination (high vs. low self-determination in the group)
• •A society's norms of trust and reciprocity (high vs. low trust within the society)

The results imply that outside regulations aiming to conserve natural resources risk worsening the situation when neglecting democratic legitimization as well as local community norms.     

Costly offers and the equilibration properties of the multiple unit double auction under conditions of unpredictable shifts of demand and supply

The paper reports on the behavior of markets in which a cost is imposed in the form of a tax on bids and asks (but not contracts) that are tendered in the market. The markets were nonstationary in the sense that market demand and market supply shifted unpredictably in each period. The results are as follows:

• 1.(1) A market equilibration process is observed across the periods of nonstationary markets.
• 2.(2) The price discovery process in the costly offer condition was ‘incomplete’ relative to the free offer case.
• 3.(3) Price equilibration with the offer cost was slower and efficiencies were reduced.

     

Euro introduction: Has there been a structural change? Study on 10 European Union countries

The introduction of the Euro in January 1999 consecrated the achievement of a single currency system within most of the European Union. Despite the dramatic change in the macroeconomic dynamics that this event is likely to have caused, the literature has paid little attention to testing for the existence of such a break and establishing its qualitative characteristics.This empirical study, based on the Blanchard and Quah (1989) methodology for seven countries having adopted the Euro currency and three members of the European Union which have preserved their own currencies reveals:

• i)very significant breaks for the Euro countries around 1992 – the year of adoption of the Maastricht Treaty – and 2000, not shared by the three non-Euro countries.
• ii)an increase in the influence of supply shocks on the dynamics of output, unemployment and the interest rate after the breaks for the Euro countries, along with an increase of the part played by monetary disturbances within total demand at long horizons. These conclusions do not generally hold for the three non-Euro countries.

     

Efficient price and capacity choices under uncertain demand: An empirical analysis

Traditional economic analyses of the peak-load problem typically assume an unrealistic degree of regularity in demand during well-defined peak and off-peak periods. This issue is addressed through a comprehensive statistical model that separates demand into its systematic and stochastic components. This model is combined with a traditional economic model and applied to local telephone service, leading to substantive conclusions relevant for managerial decisions as well as further research, among them:

? Neglecting the systematicand stochastic structure of demand may lead to inefficient tariffs. Efficient measured service structures typically price individual callsbelow incremental capacity cost.

? Industry wide capacity decision rules that are exclusively driven by blockage probability targets during narrowly defined time periods may be economically inefficient.

? For telephone service, spot pricing, which sets high prices during periods ofactual congestion, has the potential to be considerably more efficient than traditional tariffs that set high prices during periods ofexpected congestion.

     

Impact of foreign prices and interest rates on canadian economy under alternative monetary and exchange rate regimes

The main objective of this paper is to analyze the impact of U.S. short- and long-term monetary policy under both flexible and managed floating systems, using the new CANDIDE Model 2.0. We have also examined the role of domestic monetary policy in the Canadian economy under both fixed and flexible exchange rate systems. The following are some of the important findings of our study:

1. Our results support the traditional view that under the fixed exchange rate regime, monetary authorities cannot successfully pursue an independent monetary policy from its trading partners — an effort to increase money supply will be almost offset by increases in the balance of payments deficit. In contrast, in the flexible exchange rate regime, monetary policy is more effective in producing an increased growth in output and employment. However the increased output growth comes at the cost of higher prices induced by increased wages and a depreciation of the Canadian dollar.
2. Our results suggest that the impact of U.S. interest rates on investment, GNE, employment, productivity, and government debt is less severe in a pure floating exchange rate regime, compared to the managed floating system. However, the impact of U.S. interest rate policy on the Canadian inflation rate is worse in the case of flexible exchange rate regime. Even though real income and inflation are less favourable in both cases, our results indicate a trade-off between output growth and inflation.
3. Our results imply that under a pure floating monetary authorities can determine the long-run rate of inflation in Canada independent of others. However, the United States and Canadian economies are interrelated during the adjustment process, even under the flexible exchange rates, through the terms of trade and the wage-price spiral channels.

     

Constructing Clinical Use: An Activity-Theoretical Perspective on Implementing New Technology

Abstract

The paper presents recent insights from the ongoing FORLEARN project, which aims to develop Foresight theory and practise by supporting the sharing of experience (‘mutual learning’) in Europe. Six functions of Foresight for policy-making are elaborated on:

• (1)?Informing policy: generating insights regarding the dynamics of change, future challenges and options, along with new ideas, and transmitting them to policymakers as an input to policy conceptualisation and design.

• (2)?Facilitating policy implementation: enhancing the capacity for change within a given policy field by building a common awareness of the current situation and future challenges, as well as new networks and visions among stakeholders.

• (3)?Embedding participation in policy-making: facilitating the participation of civil society in the policy-making process, thereby improving its transparency and legitimacy.

• (4)?Supporting policy definition: jointly translating outcomes from the collective process into specific options for policy definition and implementation.

• (5)?Reconfiguring the policy system: in a way that makes it more apt to address long-term challenges.

• (6)?Symbolic function: indicating to the public that policy is based on rational information.

The relationship between these functions and the tensions that can arise when a Foresight exercise attempts to address more than one function are discussed. Possible approaches for Foresight practice to better achieve the targeted impact on policy-making are outlined and emerging guidelines for improving Foresight practice are presented.     

Eco-social analysis of an East African agro-pastoral system: Management of tsetse and bovine trypanosomiasis

A key constraint for development of many East African agro-pastoral communities is African animal trypanosomiasis or nagana caused by Trypanosoma spp. and vectored by species of tsetse flies (Glossina spp.). Suppression of trypanosomiasis through trapping of tsetse fly populations was conducted from 1995 to 2005 at and near Luke, Southwest Ethiopia. Odor baited mass trapping technology was used to suppress adult fly populations to very low levels while tryponocidal drugs were used to treat trypanosome infections in cattle. Data on ecological, economic and social variables were collected and analyzed in the context of eco-social dynamics in the community.The bio-economic model of Regev et al. [Regev, U., Gutierrez, A.P., Schreiber, S.J., Zilberman, D., 1998. Biological and Economic Foundations of Renewable Resource Exploitation. Ecological Economics 26, 227-242] and Gutierrez and Regev [Gutierrez, A.P., Regev, U., 2005. The bioeconomics of tritrophic systems: applications to invasive species. Ecological Economics 52, 382-396] was used as a methodological framework for qualitative evaluation of the effects of tsetse/trypanosomiasis suppression on ecological, economic and social aspects. An objective function for single farmers was formulated to determine the optimal harvesting level of cattle, exposed to high and low levels of risk from tsetse/trypanosomiasis, as measured by the discount rate (δ) for a given base level pastoral resource (R = pasture or forage for cattle). The socially optimal objective function for resource exploitation by all farmers is that which maximizes the present value of utility of individuals expending revenues (consumption) from the revenue stream in ways that enhance the quality of life and yet assures the persistence of the resource base over an infinite time horizon (i.e., renewable resource sustainability).The bio-economic model predicts that reducing risk (δ) from tsetse and disease increased the cattle populations and their marginal value. The model also predicts that the interaction of decreased δ and increased productivity (θ) can lead to increased human and cattle populations and hence to over-exploitation of base resources (pastures) that lower environmental carrying capacity and reduced sustainability.Trap catches indicated that tsetse populations were reduced to very low levels, while the disease prevalence decreased from 29% to 10%. This led to a substantial increase in cattle including oxen populations, increased calving rates, increased milk production and increased the per-capita income. The availability of oxen allowed an increase in cultivated land from 12 ha in 1995 to 506 ha in 2005. Revenues (consumption) were invested in the purchase of more cattle and the establishment of a school for educating village children. Increases in land allocated to crops and other sources of income were also found.The bioeconomic model predicts the solution of the trypanosomiasis problems so transforms the East African agro-pastoral communities that new social structures will be required to cope with the ecological, economic and social consequences of this technological changes on sustainable development (sensu [Goodland, R., 1995. The concept of environmental sustainability. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 26, 1-24]). This insight should not be lost in international rural development programs.     

Algebra of Integrated Time Series: Evidence from Unit Root Analysis

It is argued if x_t ~ I(1) and y_t ~ I(1), then running a regression x_t on y_t would produce spurious results because e _t would generally be I(1). However, there may exist a ‘b’ such that e _t  = x _t - by _t is I(0), then running a regression x _t on y _t would not produce spurious results. This special case of two integrated time series is known in the literature as cointegration. In this particular case, x _t and y _t are said to be cointegrated. In our review of the development of the concept of cointegration, we identified that the underlying reason for this special case to arise is the proposition that if x _t  ~ I(d _x ), y _t  ~ I(d _y ), then z _t  = bx _t  + cy _t  ~ I(max(d _x ,d _y )). In this research, we offer evidence against this proposition.     

Empirical Regularities of Financial Market Volatility and Good Modelling Process: Developing Countries’ Exchange Rate Markets Perspective

A survey of contemporary literature suggests that empirical studies on developing economies are few or almost non-existent. Engle and Patton (2001, What good is a volatility model. Quantitative Finance, 1, 237–245) as well as Poon (2005, A Practical Guide to Forecasting Financial Market Volatility. New Jersey: Wiley.) suggest that a good volatility model is one that utilizes the empirical regularities of financial market volatility (of which most were observed on industrialized economies markets). This paper uses exchange rate series from Ghana, Mozambique and Tanzania to show that;

1. they are not different from other financial markets as they exhibit most of the empirical regularities including volatility sign asymmetry, non-normal distribution and volatility clustering. It is however observed that the three exchange rate series are very volatile, with induced volatile shocks highly persistent and asymmetric, and extreme prices commonplace;

2. the ARCH technique (which has been well documented to capture these empirical regularities and produce good forecasts) generally produced a good fit to the three exchange rate series when compared with volatility forecasts generated using the EWMA technique. In the simple analysis of a day-ahead volatility forecast abilities of estimated models, it was observed that best fit does not necessarily ensure best forecast.

     

Accounting Price of an Exhaustible Resource: Response and Extensions

Wei (Environ Resour Econ 60:579–581, 2015) presents a novel derivation of the accounting price for an exhaustible resource in a non-optimal economy subject to an allocation mechanism. We show that Wei (2015) and Hamilton and Ruta (Environ Resour Econ 42:53–64, 2009) are in fact employing different and mutually exclusive allocation mechanisms for the economy, and this explains the differences between the respective accounting prices. Because accounting prices must be defined subject to the allocation mechanism for the economy, the prices derived in the two papers are equally valid within their respective allocation domains. Further analysis shows that if there is declining marginal product of factors, a ‘Hartwick investment rule’ for the model economy (set investment just equal to depletion, valued at the accounting price) will lead to declining consumption for the Wei (2015) accounting price, and increasing consumption for the Hamilton and Ruta (2009) accounting price. This result is extended to consider the accounting standards recommended in the UN SEEA (System of environmental-economic accounting 2012: central framework. United Nations, European Commission, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, International Monetary Fund, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, World Bank, 2012), as well as accounting for environmental externalities from resource use.     

On the performance of rule-based contribution schemes under endowment heterogeneity

We experimentally test different rule-based contribution mechanisms in a repeated 4-player public goods game with endowment heterogeneity and compare them to a VCM, distinguishing between a random and an effort-based allocation of endowments. We find that endowment heterogeneities limit the efficiency gains from these rule-based contribution schemes under random allocation. Under effort-based allocations, substantial efficiency gains relative to a VCM occur. These are largely driven by significant reductions of contributions in VCM, while the rule-based mechanisms generate stable efficiency levels, even though falling short in realizing the maximal efficiency gains. Our results indicate that the procedure of endowment allocation impacts the perception of what constitutes a fair burden sharing.     

Transboundary Marine Resources and Trading Neighbours

The importance of space in analyzing issues pertaining to renewable resources can hardly be overstated. Many such resources are mobile and spatially heterogeneous with respect to bio-economic variables, with important implications for both domestic management regimes and for international externalities and policy interactions. This paper uses a simple general-equilibrium framework to show that acknowledging the inter-jurisdictional mobility of a resource such as fish has the potential to alter or qualify some of the conservation and welfare results obtained in the canonical models. The previous literature on trade and renewable resources has focused on cases where national resource stocks are independent. Brander and Taylor (Can J Econ 30(3):526?C552, 1997a; Resour Energy Econ 19(4):267?C297, 1997b; J Int Econ, 1998a; Am Econ Rev, 1998b) find that trade leads to resource stock depletion for an open-access resource-exporting country, while the non-resource exporter is necessarily diversified. In contrast, we find that the country with a comparative advantage in the resource good may gain from a conservation standpoint, while its partner can specialize in the manufactured good and may incur conservation and even welfare losses from trade.     

Financial liberalization and sectoral reallocation of capital in South Africa

We examine the impact of financial reforms on efficient reallocation of capital within and between sectors in South Africa using firm-level panel data for the period 1991–2008. The measure of efficient allocation of capital is based on the Tobin’s Q. We find that financial reforms are associated with improvements in within-sector, but not between-sector allocation of capital. These results imply that for South Africa to unleash the potential for take-off that is often associated with reallocation of resources from the primitive to modern sectors, reforms that focus beyond the financial sector are necessary. While more research is necessary to determine what would fully constitute such additional reforms, our analysis shows that reforms that improve the quality of economic institutions may be a step in the right the direction.     

The Swedish industrial support program of the 1970s revisited

The economy-wide dynamic cost-benefit study of the Swedish industrial subsidy program 1976 through 1984 (Carlsson et al. Res Policy 10(43):336–354 1981; Carlsson J Ind Econ 32(1):9–14, 1983a, b) is revisited in light of later economic development. Since the Swedish Micro to Macro model (Eliasson Am Econ Rev 67(1):277–281 1977a, 2017a) was used for quantification, this article is both (1) a study on the calibration of high dimensional micro-based and nonlinear economic systems models, and (2) a post inquiry into the empirical credibility of the cost-benefit calculations performed. We find that the Micro-based Macro model represents the minimum of detailed resolution necessary for the dynamic cost benefit calculations of the micro interventions in the Swedish economy we study. Even though the increased model complexity meant significant parameter calibration difficulties, a thoroughly researched model specification with exactly defined policy interfaces (with the markets of the economy) should take priority over parameter estimation problems, and always be preferred to estimating the parameters of a wrongly specified model perfectly. The oil price shocks of the 1970s caused radical market disorder in the western economies, bankrupting some 35% of Swedish manufacturing and threatening the Swedish government with massive unemployment. We confirm the earlier results that the government choice of a radical employment rescue policy came at enormous social cost in the form of economic stagnation, and still did not prevent the unemployment of the rest of OECD Europe from hitting Sweden a decade later, and persisting well into the next millennium. According to an alternative simulated policy scenario on the model, had the subsidies been replaced with a general lowering of the payroll tax of the same magnitude and the consequent increase in unemployment taken immediately during 1976–1980, production structures would have been radically and rapidly reorganized, normal employment would have been rapidly restored, and neither the stagnation nor the radical increase in unemployment of the early 1990s would have occurred. In retrospect we see no reason to worry about the empirical credibility of this computed dynamic trade off between Keynesian demand and Schumpeterian supply effects (caused by resource reallocations and endogenous structural change due to the price change), as we did then. We conclude with certainty that this trade-off would not even have been discovered as a possibility had we used a traditional model that did not embody these micro-macro linkages.     

Dynamic interdependence of sovereign credit default swaps in BRICS and MIST countries

This article examines the interactions of emerging markets sovereign credit default swaps (CDS). Using a generalized vector autoregressive framework and principal component analysis, we find significant spillover effects within the two groups of emerging markets under study. Using the principal component analysis, we show that global financial market factors are important drivers of BRICS and MIST sovereign CDS spreads variability. Focusing on the forecast error variance decomposition, most of the spillover effects are documented among the emerging markets CDS. Brazil and Mexico contribute the largest net directional spillovers to the other emerging markets studied.

Highlights:

• There exist significant CDS spillover effects for MIST and BRICS countries.

• Mexico dominates the spillover effects within the MIST group while Brazil dominates the spillover effects within the BRICS group.

• As determined by principal component analysis, global financial market factors are important drivers of BRICS and MIST sovereign CDS spreads variability.

• There exists a relatively small net directional spillover from global financial market factors to the countries under study; however, the total spillover is time-varying.

• A large proportion of the forecast error variance in the markets studied comes from spillovers.

     

Sovereign-Wealth Funds: the institutional dimension

In the recent past, the operations of the capital-rich Sovereign-Wealth Funds (SWFs) went on increasing in the global capital markets. As the global economic crisis that started in 2007 deepened, SWF operations dramatically spurted, leading to further progressive increase in their significance for the global capital markets. For all appearances they are going to be important financial players in the foreseeable future. This article focuses on the basic concept of SWFs, their structure and operations. It attempts to analyze and elucidate on them. Notwithstanding the fact that SWFs are an instrument of enhancing liquidity and financial resource allocation in the international capital market, they managed to become a source of controversies. Consequently they became a source of escalation in financial protectionism in several advanced industrial economies, in particular the USA. The article concludes that this was unwarranted. Recently SWFs have attempted to device an array of best practices to improve the transparency of their global financial operations. These measures are expected to enhance the acceptance of SWFs as well as global recognition of their operations. They would also help in dispelling the negative image that SWFs have held in several advanced industrial economies.

Joint misrepresentation with bribes

We study the problem of assigning objects to buyers. Monetary transfers are allowed. Each buyer’s preference space contains, but is not limited to, the linear additively separable preferences. A rule maps each preference profile to an allocation. We are concerned about the possibility that a group of buyers may engage in the following kind of manipulation: They make side payments internally and then carry out a joint misrepresentation. A rule is strongly group strategy-proof if no group can gain by engaging in such operations. We also consider several other appealing requirements. We find that the posted-price rules are the only one that satisfies non-triviality, non-imposition, envy-freeness, and strong group strategy-proofness.     

Second-best efficiency of allocation rules: strategy-proofness and single-peaked preferences with multiple commodities

We study strategy-proof allocation rules in economies with perfectly divisible multiple commodities and single-peaked preferences. In this setup, it is known that the incompatibility among strategy-proofness, Pareto efficiency and non-dictatorship arises in contrast with the Sprumont (Econometrica 59:509–519, 1991) one commodity model. We first investigate the existence problem of strategy-proof and second-best efficient rules, where a strategy-proof rule is second-best efficient if it is not Pareto-dominated by any other strategy-proof rules. We show that there exists an egalitarian rational (consequently, non-dictatorial) strategy-proof rule satisfying second-best efficiency. Second, we give a new characterization of the generalized uniform rule with the second-best efficiency in two-agent case.     

Intolerable nuisances: some laboratory evidence on survivor curve shapes

The fraction of a user population willing to tolerate nuisances of size x is summarized in the survivor curve S(x); its shape is crucial in economic decisions such as pricing and advertising. We report a laboratory experiment that, for the first time, estimates the shape of survivor curves in several different settings. Laboratory subjects engage in a series of six desirable activities, e.g., playing a video game, viewing a chosen video clip, or earning money by answering questions. For each activity and each subject we introduce a chosen level \(x \in [x_{\min }, x_{\max }]\) of a particular nuisance, and the subject chooses whether to tolerate the nuisance or to switch to a bland activity for the remaining time. New non-parametric techniques provide bounds on the empirical survivor curves for each activity. Parametric fits of the classic Weibull distribution provide estimates of the survivor curves’ shapes. The fitted shape parameter depends on the activity and nuisance, but overall the estimated survivor curves tend to be log-convex. An implication, given the model of Aperjis and Huberman (SSRN, doi:  10.2139/ssrn.1672820, 2011), is that introducing nuisances all at once will generally be more profitable than introducing them gradually.     

How many singularities are near and how will they disrupt human history?

This paper reviews a large number of approaches that have been used for considering technologically driven profound societal change. We agree with Vinge's suggestion for naming events that are “capable of rupturing the fabric of human history” (or leading to profound societal changes) as a “singularity”. This is a useful terminology especially since a mathematically rigorous singularity seems impossible for technological and related societal change. The overview of previous work is done within the context of a broader look at the role of technological change within human history. The review shows that a wide variety of methods have been used and almost all point to singularities in the present century particularly in the middle of the century. The diversity of the methods is reassuring about the potential robustness of these predictions. However, the subjectivity of labeling events as singularities (even well studied past events) is a concern about all of the methods and thus one must carefully pause when relying in any way on these predictions. The general lack of empirical research in this area is also a concern.Quantitative considerations (by proponents and opponents) about past singularities or future singularities often confound two types of metrics. The first type is essentially related to diffusion of technologies (or bundles of technologies) where the logistic curve is empirically well established as the proper time dependence. The second type of metric is for technological capability where hyper-exponentials are empirically well established for their time dependence. In this paper, we consider two past singularities (arguably with important enough social change to qualify) in which the basic metric is alternatively of one type or another. The globalization occurring under Portuguese leadership of maritime empire building and naval technological progress is characterized by a metric describing diffusion. The revolution in time keeping, on the other hand, is characterized by a technological capability metric. For these two cases (and thus robust to the choice of metric type), we find that:

• • 

  People undergoing profound technologically-driven societal change do not sense a singularity.

• • 

  The societal impacts depend in complicated ways on human needs, institutional variables and other more uncertain factors and thus are particularly hard to project;

• • 

  The societal impact is apparently not determined by the rate of progress on either type of metric or by projections to mathematical points with either kind of metric. This finding supports the existing concept that social change due to technology is a more holistic phenomenon than can be characterized by any technical metric.

In the final section, we use these empirical findings as the basis for exploring the possibilities for and nature of future singularities. In this we speculate that the potential for a future strong singularity based upon computational capability does not appear particularly probable but that one may already be occurring and is not fully noticed by those (us) going through it. Other possible 21st century singularities (life extension and fossil fuel elimination are two examples considered) may also be already underway rather than waiting for the predicted mid-century changes.