Modelling the economic consequences of Marine Protected Areas using the BEMCOM model

This paper introduces and describes in detail the bioeconomic optimization model BEMCOM (BioEconomic Model to evaluate the COnsequences of Marine protected areas) that has been developed to assess the economic effects of introducing Marine Protected Areas (MPA) for fisheries. BEMCOM answers the question ‘what’s best?’, i.e. finds the overall optimal effort allocation, from an economic point of view, between multiple harvesting fleets fishing under a subset of restrictions on catches and effort levels. The BEMCOM model is described and applied to the case of the Danish sandeel fishery in the North Sea. It has several times been suggested to close parts of the sandeel fishery in the North Sea out of concern for other species feeding on sandeel and/or spawning in the sandeel habitats. The economic effects of such closures have been assessed using BEMCOM. The results indicate that the model yields reliable estimates of the effect of MPAs, and can thus be a valuable tool when deciding where to locate MPA.     

Reconciling economic and biological modeling of migratory fish stocks: Optimal management of the Atlantic salmon fishery in the Baltic Sea

The paper puts forward a model of the Atlantic salmon fishery in the Baltic Sea that integrates the salient biological and economic characteristics of migratory fish stocks. Designed to be compatible with the framework used for actual stock assessments, the model accounts for age-structured population dynamics, the seasonal harvest and competing harvesting by commercial and recreational fishermen. It is parameterized for the Simojoki River stock. The socially optimal policy for maximizing discounted net benefits from the fishery within an uncertain environment is determined using a dynamic programming approach and numerical solution method. Our results indicate that substantial economic benefits could be realized under optimal management without compromising stock sustainability.     

Analysing the profitability of the Spanish fleet after the anchovy moratorium using bootstrap techniques

Given the low biomass level of the anchovy, the European Commission agreed to establish a moratorium on this species in the Bay of Biscay in 2005. Although the effects of managing the fishing activity with TACs, fees, taxes and ITQs on the stocks and future net profits are well documented in the specialized literature, scarce attention has been paid to analyze the effects of moratoriums on fisheries and the profitability of the fleet. This paper studies if the anchovy moratorium had a significant impact on the economic profitability of the fleet that fishes anchovy and other pelagic species in the North Atlantic waters. For this purpose, we compare the financial situations of the fleet before and after the moratorium from a statistical point of view using bootstrap, which is a flexible non-parametric and computationally intensive methodology. The results reveal the existence of a structural change in the financial performance of the fleet after the implementation of the moratorium.     

Coevolution of economic and ecological systems

This paper analyzes a model of economy–environment coevolution in which economic activities induce the genetic evolution of a biological species. This model is applied to the problem of pesticide resistance management. Just as in Munro (Environ Resour Econ, 9:429–449, 1997), we consider three main types of interactions: (1) a large pest population reduces economic revenues, (2) economic activities select for resistant genes and (3) the spread of resistant genes affects the size of the pest population. The model differs from Munro in that it includes evolutionary modeling of economic strategies. Economic agents are assumed to be boundedly rational, i.e they cannot compute the optimal level of pesticide use that minimizes resistance among pests. Economic evolution represents the change in the distribution of pesticide strategies in the population of economic agents and is modeled by a replicator dynamics equation. The interactions between economic evolution of pesticide strategies, pest population dynamics and genetic evolution of resistance of pests are studied in a system of three differential equations. We explore the dynamics and stability properties of the system using numerical simulations.     

Transboundary Pollution in the Black Sea: Comparison of Institutional Arrangements

This paper analyses the transboundary pollution between Romania and Ukraine, coastal states along the Black Sea, and studies the welfare consequences of institutional arrangements for controlling this problem. To achieve this goal, we use a dynamic and strategic framework. We compare in terms of total welfare for two countries a first-best case with three different institutional arrangements: the non-cooperative game of countries, the uniform emission policy and the constant emission policy as proposed by the Black Sea Commission. Our findings indicate that the non-cooperative game provides a better level of total welfare than the other rules.     

ITQ Systems in Multifleet Fisheries

Optimum management of a particular fishery is analyzed based on an ITQ system. For this purpose, a multifleet deterministic bioeconomic model is developed and applied. Using data on the fishery studied here, estimates are made of the stock dynamics of fish and the technology used by the fleets operating in said fishery. Optimum levels of stock, effort and catch are determined. Finally, we present economic policy recommendations for this fishery and considerations for applying regulatory measures.     

Bang for buck: cost-effective control of invasive species with different life histories

Strategies for controlling invasive species can be aimed at any or all of the stages in the life cycle. In this paper, we show how to combine biological data on population dynamics with simple economic data on control costs options to determine the least costly set of strategies that will prevent an established invader from continuing to increase. Based on biological data alone (elasticities of matrix population models), effective control strategies are sensitive to both life history and rate of population growth. Adding economic considerations, however, can cause the optimal control strategy to shift, unless the costs of intervention are the same across life stages. As an example, we apply our methods to oyster drills (Ocinebrellus inornatus), an economically important aquaculture pest that has been accidentally introduced worldwide. Control efforts are applied to local tidelands through manual removal of adults, although the life history characteristics of the species indicate a low population elasticity for adult survival. Aquaculturists are making bioeconomic decisions to remove adults vs. egg capsules, because of the relative ease of controlling each stage.     

Is the Current Regulation of the VIII Division European Anchovy Optimal?

This paper sets out to assess the workability of the regulation currently in force in the European anchovy fishery of the VIII division. Particular attention is paid to the importance of the institutional regime in the allocation of natural resources. The study uses a bio-economic approach and takes into account the fact that, not only the European Union and the individual countries involved, but also some of the resource users or appropriators intervene in its management. In order to compare the effectiveness of the rules which, at the various levels, have been set up to restrict exploitation of the resource, the anchovy fishery is simulated in two extreme situations: open access and sole ownership. The results obtained by effective management will then be contrasted with those obtained from the maximum and zero profit objectives related with the two above-mentioned scenarios. Thus, if the real data come close to those derived from the sole ownership model it will have to be acknowledged that the rules at present in force are optimal. If, on the other hand, the situation more closely approach the results obtained from the open access model, we will endeavour in our conclusions to provide suggestions for economic policy measures that might improve the situation in the fishery.     

Measuring potential profits in a bioeconomic model of the mixed demersal fishery in the North Sea

This paper measures for potential profit in the North Sea mixed demersal fishery for cod, haddock and whiting. Dynamic bioeconomic models for three UK fisheries are developed, incorporating both population dynamics and economic structure. Actual profit in 2006, for the three UK fleets included in the analysis, is estimated at ??10.3?million. If the TAC remains unchanged but vessels are allowed to harvest at near efficient levels with fleet size reduced accordingly, potential profit is measured at ??34.5?million. If demersal stocks are allowed to recover to near optimal levels potential UK profit exceeds ??185?million. This indicates substantial profit dissipation due to overcapacity and stock depletion in the fishery. The results of the paper should be of policy interest and will add to the empirical literature on resource profits in mixed demersal fisheries.     

Dynamics of the North-South welfare gap and global sustainability

The vast heterogeneity among nations in terms of economic and demographic characteristics is evident, despite being overlooked in some global studies. In this heterogeneity, it is possible to identify some distinct aggregate classes differing at some very fundamental level: developing (South) nations and developed (North) nations may have very different, asymmetric problems, goals and structures. This study investigates these two distinct groups of socio-economic systems, as they interact in a context of global sustainability. We identify population, economic growth, welfare gap, energy supply and pollution as key issues and analyze them using a systems perspective. A dynamic feedback model, which discriminates the two groups of nations, is constructed to study the dynamics of variables related to the above key issues. The model is tested using extensive data between the years 1980-2005. According to the reference behavior covering the period 1980-2050, it is not viable to close the welfare gap between North and South, given the current prevailing non-renewable-resource-based growth system. A non-renewable-resource-based system adopted by the economic system of growing South would take the global system even closer to its limits. It is observed that indicators like reserve-to-demand ratio fail to provide reliable signals for a timely transition to alternative resources, and a very serious economic recession due to resource scarcity is likely to develop in the next couple of decades. By coupling the demographic and economic dynamics, it is shown that an economic slowdown due to a resource scarcity may have a dramatic widening effect on the already existing welfare gap. Scenario and policy experiments verify the widely accepted importance of stabilizing the population growth in South, transition to alternative energy resources, and investment support to the South in this transition simultaneously in order to reduce the welfare gap between the two blocks. It is observed that enthusiastic targets for an energy transition may have a serious negative impact on the welfare level experienced in South, whereas an energy transition in South supported by North seems to have the most desirable outcome regarding the welfare gap.     

Economic Policy for Structural Change

Starting from a conceptualization of structural change as an uneven phenomenon punctuated by technological revolutions that give rise to long-term movements of real and monetary variables, i.e. long waves, this paper puts forth an explanation of radical technical change. Then, drawing upon Post-Keynesian theory, the neo-Schumpeterian school of techno-economic paradigms, and the work of Luigi L. Pasinetti, we suggest guidelines for economic policy to manage structural change and its consequences. While economic policy cannot by itself fully tame the dynamics of structural change, it can ameliorate its disruptive effects, firstly by helping us to manage the stagnation phase of the long wave in order to avoid a deep depression; secondly by preparing the way for a new long-wave and, thirdly, by facilitating the establishment of the institutional conditions for the diffusion of the new technological paradigm. The paper concludes by comparing these suggested policies with those pursued by the dominant western economies after the Second World War. We find that three broad factors—a misdiagnosis of the nature of the crisis that began in the 1970s; a shift in power relations that was strongly unfavorable to the working class; and the rise of neoliberal ideology—led to the adoption of policies that had disastrous social and economic consequences.     

Indirect management of invasive species through bio-controls: A bioeconomic model of salmon and alewife in Lake Michigan

Invasive species are typically viewed as an economic bad because they cause economic and ecological damages, and can be difficult to control. When direct management is limited, another option is indirect management via bio-controls. Here management is directed at the bio-control species population (e.g., supplementing this population through stocking) with the aim that, through ecological interactions, the bio-control species will control the invader. We focus on stocking salmon to control invasive alewives in Lake Michigan. Salmon are valuable to recreational anglers, and alewives are their primary food source in Lake Michigan. We illustrate how stocking salmon can be used to control alewife, while at the same time alewife can be turned from a net economic bad (having a negative shadow value) into a net economic good (having a positive shadow value) by providing valuable ecosystem services that support the recreational fishery. Using optimal control theory, we solve for a stocking program that maximizes social welfare. Optimal stocking results in cyclical dynamics. We link concepts of natural capital and indirect management, population dynamics, non-convexities, and multiple-use species and demonstrate that species interactions are critical to the values that humans derive from ecosystems. This research also provides insight into the management of salmon fisheries in the Great Lakes.     

Output dynamics,flow equilibria and structural change—A prolegomenon to evolutionary macroeconomics

In an evolutionary approach to macroeconomics, the market disequilibrium dynamics resulting from structural change need to be properly represented at the aggregate level. As suggested by the late F.A. Hayek, a suitable equilibrium concept required to this end as a frame of reference, is that of a flow equilibrium. The paper explores the corresponding flow dynamics that draw attention to variables not usually considered in macroeconomic theorizing. Using statistical estimates for these new variables for the West German manufacturing sector during the German unification process allows some important new insights on the relationships between structural change and macroeconomic performance.

Accounting for economic evolution: Fitness and the population method

The theme of this paper is the general population dynamics of evolutionary processes, and, in particular, a number of accounting concepts that are central to any understanding of evolutionary processes of the variation-cum-selection retention kind. A population perspective, for example, turns out to be crucial to the study of the competitive process in economic systems defined at the level of industries, sectors and markets. Business rivalry, underpinned by differential innovative activity, is the basis of the differential survival and growth of competing economic activities and the strategies deployed to create sustainable differences in competitive selection characteristics are at the core of the capitalist dynamic interpreted as an adaptive, evolutionary process. This kind of evolutionary argument is necessarily concerned with growth rate dynamics and the explanation of the diversity of growth rates across entities in a population. However, the following discussion does not provide any causal explanation of economic evolution in terms of the determinants of growth rate differences, rather it provides a bookkeeping scheme in which different causal theories may be set and compared. Growth dynamics and structural change are the two central features of variation/selection processes within populations and I explore them in terms of three themes: namely, Logistic Growth Accounting; Competition Accounting; and, the Price Theorem. The unifying theme that links all three is their relation to the population method in evolutionary theory.      

Technical efficiency effects of input controls: evidence from Australia's banana prawn fishery

This paper provides the first ex post estimates of the effects of input controls on technical efficiency in a fishery. Using individual vessel data from the northern prawn fishery of Australia for the years 1990–1996 and 1994–2000, stochastic production frontiers are estimated to analyse the efficiency impacts of input controls on engine and vessel size. The results indicate that technical efficiency is increasing in a measure of vessel size and engine capacity that was controlled by the regulator from 1985 to 2001, and decreasing in an unregulated input, gear headrope length. The study shows that fishers have substituted from regulated to unregulated inputs over the period 1990–2000 and technical efficiency has declined coincident with increasing restrictions on vessel size and engine capacity. The decline in technical efficiency indicates that the goal of the regulator to increase economic efficiency has not been realized.     

Farewell Anatolia: Refugees & the rise of the Greek Left

The population exchange of 1923 between Greece and Turkey consolidated the influx of more than 1.5 million refugees from Anatolia and East Thrace into Greece. In this article, we exploit the regional distribution of refugees at the sub-prefectural (province) level as a natural experiment in order to delineate the political effects of what the Greeks call the Asia Minor Catastrophe. We find that the settlement of refugees produced positive persistent effects on the electoral share of left-wing parties in the interwar and postwar periods. This is particularly the case for provinces with a high settlement rate of refugees originating from Asia Minor rather than from East Thrace or the Black Sea region. However, the refugee impact on the left-wing vote disappears completely in the post-dictatorship period.     

The hidden soul of financial innovation: An agent-based modelling of home mortgage securitization and the finance-growth nexus

This paper investigates the interaction between financial innovation and securitization. To this end, it introduces the rate of financial innovation (RoFIN) as an endogenous variable in an Agent-Based Model (ABM) set up and studies its interaction with the non-fixed fraction of securitized mortgage loans. RoFIN is able to capture financial agents’ business decisions on using financial innovation tools, processes and services, such as the home mortgage securitization process. In the aftermath of the 2007–2009 financial and economic crisis it has been argued that financial innovation and securitization have increased macro/finance systemic instability via, for example, non-linear two-way spillovers between the financial system and the macroeconomy. The ABM model proposed enables the capture of these dynamics. High values of RoFIN (i.e. exceeding the threshold of 50%) make financial innovation become harmful for the economic system, leading to a switch from a virtuous to an unvirtuous business cycle. When RoFIN reaches 90%, the numerical simulations come close to the macro/finance dynamics observed before and during the financial crisis. Given its potential role in triggering financial and economic instability, RoFIN is of interest for financial regulation and supervision. How this endogenous variable may be influenced by means of operational variables under the control of policymakers remains a subject for future research.     

Structural Economic Change and the Natural Environment in the Russian Federation

Many of Russia's contemporary environmental problems can be related, at least in part, to the activities of the Soviet period. However, the strength of this relationship can sometimes result in the environmental influences of post-Soviet society being ignored or understated. In recognition of this fact, this article examines the relationship between structural economic change and the natural environment in the post-Soviet period. The first part of the article is concerned with general economic trends and associated environmental consequences during the period 1990 to 1997. It then moves on to consider the environmental repercussions of structural changes within the country's industrial and agricultural sectors.     

Infrastructures, incentives, and institutions: Fostering distributed knowledge bases for the learning society

While much attention has been devoted to information and communication technologies, a more fundamental change at the start of the new millennium is the increasing importance of innovation for economic prosperity and the emergence of a learning society. The analysis in this paper shows that innovation should be understood as a broad social and economic activity: it should transcend any specific technology, even if revolutionary, and should be tied to attitudes and behaviors oriented towards the exploitation of change by adding value.We build on the idea of inclusive learning, which entails a process of shared prosperity across the globe following local specific conditions, and argue that it is crucial to understand the features of knowledge-induced growth in rich countries, as well as the challenges and opportunities for late-industrialized and less-developed countries. To achieve these objectives, we emphasize the relative importance of infrastructures and incentives, but considering the increasingly important role of institutions towards the development of social capital. This is because learning societies will increasingly rely on “distributed knowledge bases” as a systematically coherent set of knowledge maintained across an economically and/or socially integrated set of agents and institutions.This broad concept has motivated the work behind the present paper, which builds on material presented at the 5th International Conference on Technology Policy and Innovation (ICTPI), which was held in Delft, The Netherlands, in June of 2001. Under the broad designation of “critical infrastructures,” the Conference brought together a range of experts to discuss technology, policy and management in a context much influenced by the dynamics of the process of knowledge accumulation, which drives learning societies. Thus, this special issue includes a set of extended contributions to the Delft conference, and the aim of this introductory paper is to set the stage for these contributions, with an original contribution on possible views on the role critical infrastructures play to foster innovation in the learning society.     

Cyclical Dynamics of the Turkish Economy and the Stock Market

Abstract

We analyze the cyclical dynamics of the Turkish economy and the stock market as well as their interactions. We use hidden Markov models that are robust to parameter instability arising from major shifts in economic policy, which have been typically observed in the Turkish economy. These models provide estimates of turning points for the growth, business, and stock market cycles. We identify three states of growth cycles and two states of business cycles in Turkey characterized by different mean estimates. We find that the economy went through five recessions since 1987. Crises are characterized by sharp drops in economic activity and are preceded by slowdowns. These crises are typically followed by strong recoveries during which the economy grows above its long-run average rate. We show that the Turkish stock market goes through three regimes having distinct risk-return dynamics. Bear markets associated with negative returns precede every recession with an average lead time of three quarters, suggesting that the stock market may be a useful forward-looking indicator of the Turkish economy.