Directly unproductive schooling: How country characteristics affect the impact of schooling on growth

The rapid rise in schooling in developing countries in recent decades has been dramatic. However, many cross-country regression analyses of the impact of schooling on economic growth find low and insignificant coefficients. This empirical ‘puzzle’ contrasts with theoretical arguments that schooling, through raising human capital, should raise income levels. This paper argues that poor results are to be expected when regression samples include countries that vary greatly in their ability to use schooling productively. Data on corruption, the black market premium on foreign exchange and the extent of the brain drain for developing countries are used as indicators of an economy's productive use of schooling. Regression analysis shows that the impact of schooling on economic growth is substantially higher in countries that are adjudged to use schooling productively.     

Poverty,undernutrition and vulnerability in rural India: role of rural public works and food for work programmes

This paper analyses the effects of access to Rural Public Works (RPW) or Food for Work programme (FFW) on consumption poverty, vulnerability and undernutrition in India using the large household data sets constructed by the National Sample Survey for 1993 and 2004. The treatment-effects model is used to take account of sample selection bias in evaluating the effects of RPW in 1993 or FFW in 2004 on poverty. We have found significant and negative effects of participation in RPW and the Food for Work Programme on poverty, undernutrition (e.g. protein) and vulnerability in 1993 and 2004.     

The impact of endogenous tax treaties on foreign direct investment: theory and evidence

Abstract .  This paper investigates the effect of tax treaties on bilateral stocks of outward FDI. For this purpose we employ a numerically solvable general equilibrium model of trade and multinational firms to study the impact of tax treaties on both welfare and outward FDI. The model indicates under which factor endowment configurations countries gain in welfare when implementing a tax treaty. This motivates an empirical specification of the endogenous selection into implementing new tax treaties. Using data of bilateral OECD outward FDI between 1985 and 2000, we find a significant negative impact of newly implemented tax treaties on outward FDI stocks.     

Estimating the benefit of high school for university‐bound students: evidence of subject‐specific human capital accumulation

Numerous studies suggest that the value of high school education is large for potential dropouts, yet we know much less about the benefits for students who will go on to post‐secondary education. To help fill this gap I measure, using a recent Ontario high school reform, the value‐added (in terms of university grades) of an extra year of high‐school mathematics for university‐bound students. The estimated benefit is small for these students: 2.3 points on a 100‐point scale. This evidence helps to explain why the literature has found only modest effects of taking more mathematics in high school on wages.     

Willingness‐to‐pay for parallel private health insurance: evidence from a laboratory experiment

Abstract Debate over the effects of public versus private health care finance persists in both academic and policy circles. This paper presents the results of a revealed preference laboratory experiment that tests how characteristics of the public health system affect a subject's willingness‐to‐pay (WTP) for parallel private health insurance. Consistent with the theoretical predictions of Cuff et al. (2010), subjects’ average WTP is lower and the size of the private insurance sector smaller when the public system allocates health care based on need rather than randomly and when the probability of receiving health care from the public system is high.     

The Paretian Ratio Distribution — An application to the volatility of GDP

Recently, Gabaix suggested that the volatility of GDP could come from the Pareto distribution of the firm sizes. This paper describes and gives an approximation of the Paretian Ratio Distribution (PRD), which represents the weight of the firm in GDP.     

The limits of self-governance when cooperators get punished: Experimental evidence from urban and rural Russia

We report evidence from public goods experiments with and without punishment which we conducted in Russia with 566 urban and rural participants of young and mature age cohorts. Russia is interesting for studying voluntary cooperation because of its long history of collectivism, and a huge urban–rural gap. In contrast to previous experiments we find no cooperation-enhancing effect of punishment. An important reason is that there is punishment of contributors in all four subject pools. Thus, punishment can also undermine the scope for self-governance in the sense of high levels of voluntary cooperation that are sustained by sanctioning free riders only.     

The impact of wages on job search in a transition economy - evidence with data from Eastern Germany

This study is concerned with the impact of wages on job search decisions in Eastern Germany immediately after reunification and in later periods. Several concepts measuring wage effects are used. The results of bivariate probit estimates with incomplete classification for a global and local job search show that the wage level had stronger effects on the former than on the latter job search decision directly after the collapse of the Berlin Wall. The degree of satisfaction with current income and the earnings capacities were irrelevant for the search decision. Low-paid East German workers had a higher propensity to search for a new job in the old Länder than others. This is contrary to the misleading result of isolated estimates about the job search in Western Germany. In the subsequent periods the situation has changed. The difference of earnings capacities between Eastern and Western Germany, specific East German wage premiums and intraregional wage inequality affect the decision to search for a new job in the west.For helpful comments I thank Michael Burda, Knut Gerlach, Robert A. Hart, Stefan Niermann, Liz Regan and two referees.     

The treatment effect, the cross difference, and the interaction term in nonlinear “difference-in-differences” models

In any nonlinear “difference-in-differences” model with strictly monotonic transformation function, the treatment effect is the cross difference of the observed outcome minus the cross difference of the potential non-treatment outcome, which equals the incremental effect of the interaction term coefficient.     

Spatial effects of foreign direct investment in US states

Abstract This paper estimates the aggregate productivity effects of Marshallian externalities generated by foreign direct investment (FDI) in US states, controlling for Marshallian externalities and other spatial spillovers generated by domestic firms. A regional production function framework models externalities and other spatial spillovers explicitly as determinants of total factor productivity. We employ a system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator to account for the potential endogeneity of FDI and the presence of spatial lags. Using data for US states from 1977–2003, the results indicate that FDI generates positive externalities, while externalities from domestic firms are negative.     

Nonlinear effects of government debt on private consumption: Evidence from OECD countries

This paper investigates nonlinear effects of government debt on private consumption. The estimated consumption function shows smooth regime switching depending on the debt-to-GDP ratio, and a higher level of government debt crowds out private consumption to a greater extent.     

A spatial analysis of provincial corporate income tax responses: evidence from Canada

Abstract.  Using a model of interdependent tax choices, and accounting for equalization entitlements and general transfers, this paper estimates – making use of a spatial econometric framework – corporate income tax-setting functions for all Canadian provincial governments. The results show that there is a statistically significant positive fiscal interaction among a subset of provinces and between all provinces and the federal government. Provincial corporate income taxes are also found to be negatively related to equalization entitlements, general federal transfers, and the federal corporate income tax. A robustness check on the fiscal relationship between Ontario and Quebec verifies the existence of significant bi-directional fiscal interdependencies. The paper also introduces U.S state corporate income taxes as covariates and examines their interaction with Canadian provinces.     

Not by growth alone: The role of the distribution of income in regional diversity in poverty reduction

This study examines the role of the distribution of income in determining the responsiveness of poverty to income growth and changes in income inequality using panel data of 58 developing countries for the period 1980-1998. We show that the large cross-regional variation in the capacity of income growth to reduce poverty, i.e. the income elasticity, is largely explained by differences in the initial distribution of income and present region and time specific estimates of the income and Gini elasticities of poverty. We find that the income elasticity of poverty in the mid-1990s equals −1.31 on average and ranges from −0.71 for Sub-Saharan Africa to −2.27 for the Middle East and North Africa, and that the Gini elasticity of poverty equals 0.80 on average and ranges from 0.01 in South Asia to 1.73 in Latin America. Furthermore we show that while differing income growth rates account for most of the regional diversity in poverty trends, the additional impact of differences across regions in rates of inequality change and income and inequality elasticities of poverty is almost always significant and far too large to be ignored, most notably so in Eastern Europe and Central Asia.     

Supply and quality choices in private child care markets: Evidence from São Paulo

Many developing countries have adopted the market approach for expanding the supply of child care, but little is known about the economic behavior of independent providers. Drawing on uniquely rich census data on child care providers from São Paulo, we document three main facts: (1) the stock of private suppliers is considerably larger in high-income city districts; (2) the quality of private provision – as measured by teachers' schooling, group size and equipment – is highly heterogeneous across space and increases systematically with local household income; and (3) a considerable share of centers operates below recommended (but not regulated) quality standards, especially in low-income districts. These findings are consistent with a model of endogenous entry and quality choices by heterogeneous providers. Market-driven heterogeneity in the quality of provision across space is an important consideration for the design of regulations in child care markets.     

Switching the lights off: The impact of energy tariff increases on households in the Kyrgyz Republic

This paper describes an analysis of the impact that higher energy tariffs would have on households in the Kyrgyz Republic using micro-data from the 2009 Kyrgyz Integrated Household Survey. This analysis was conducted to determine which households would be most affected by higher energy tariffs and to what extent mitigation measures, such as lifeline tariffs or direct cash transfers, might lessen the impact for poor and vulnerable households. The analysis focused on first-order effects and used benefit incidence analysis and static micro-simulation to estimate the expected costs and benefits of higher energy prices and the corresponding mitigation measures. The results suggest that both the type of energy and the level of connectedness matter. Increasing tariffs for thermal power used for central heating and hot water mainly affects richer households in urban areas. Reducing implicit electricity subsidies affects the entire population due to nearly complete country coverage with electricity connections. Both lifeline tariffs and direct cash transfers could mitigate the effect of higher electricity tariffs at lower costs than universal subsidies.     

Fungibility and the impact of development assistance: Evidence from Vietnam's health sector

The apparent fungibility of aid is a challenge to the evaluation of donor-funded development projects, requiring a comparison of the observed outcomes with the outcomes that would have occurred if the project had not gone ahead. Where projects are targeted on specific geographic areas, counterfactual outcomes in each can differ from observed outcomes because the amount of government spending (gross of aid) differs, the productivity of government spending differs, or both. This paper estimates the benefits of two concurrent World Bank health projects in Vietnam targeted on specific provinces. Estimates are derived from a model linking outcomes (under-five mortality) to government spending before and after the project and in project and nonproject provinces, and are presented for different assumptions regarding fungibility of funds (zero and full fungibility) and the impacts of the project on the productivity of government spending (the project modifies productivity in both sectors equally and in neither sector). The estimated mortality reductions are highly insensitive to the assumed degree of fungibility, but highly sensitive to the assumed productivity effects (the estimates range from 1 to 25%). The wide range reflects the uncertainty due to the lack of a genuine control group of provinces.     

Quality and quantity in primary care mixed‐payment models: evidence from family health organizations in Ontario

Abstract We study the impact of a mixed capitation model (the Family Health Organization, FHO) on quality and quantity outcomes among primary care physicians in Ontario. Using a panel of administrative data covering one year before and two years after the FHO model was introduced, we find that physicians in the FHO model provide about 6% to 7% fewer services and visits per day, but are between 7% and 11% more likely to achieve preventive care quality targets. These results suggest that the mixed capitation model with contractible quality indicators may be welfare improving relative to the FFS model.     

Impact of education and health on poverty reduction: Monetary and non-monetary evidence from Fiji

Fiji signed the United Nations 2015 target of halving extreme poverty from its 1990 level, but like many developing countries it is facing challenges in meeting this goal. This paper presents the economic modelling using Fiji's Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2002/03 dataset to examine the economic and social factors crucial for poverty reduction. Two hypotheses are tested: first, we estimate the monetary effects of education at the aggregate and disaggregated returns to education (primary, secondary, tertiary levels) and by income quartiles, and second, test the non-monetary education and health factors as channels of impact promulgated as effects against poverty prevalence. The monetary results indicate that all income quartile households (i.e. lowest to highest) benefit from additional skills obtained through formal education. While those at the lowest income quartile in particular benefit the most from formal education, however it cannot sustainably prevent people with only primary education from falling into poverty. The results for non-monetary models show that education has a positive and significant influence on the tendency of the people to engage in health prevention activities and in acquiring good housing facilities.     

Pricing Personal Services: An Empirical Study of Earnings in the UK Prostitution Industry

The hedonic pricing method is used to investigate the way in which the prices of prostitutes' services are determined. The data used in the analysis are extracted from an internet site, each observation being based on a report submitted by a client. The factors affecting price are identified in a regression framework, and combined with other information to provide estimates of the earnings, both aggregate and individual, for a sub‐sector of this underground service industry in the United Kingdom. Comparison of these earnings' estimates with data on earnings from alternative employment then allows us to estimate the compensating wage differential, and also to verify the theoretical prediction that prostitutes' earnings are positively related to earnings from alternative employment.