The Asian Crisis,Gender, and the International Financial Architecture

This paper begins with an account of the Asian crisis, its creation and management by international financial institutions (the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank), and the gender impact of their stabilization and structural adjustment programs. Next we consider the new debate on reforming the IMF and the World Bank and restructuring the international financial architecture to prevent crises and manage them more effectively. Finally, we consider the gender ramifications of these changes. Since feminists have been absent from this debate, we examine issues essential to the formation of a gender-conscious international financial structure.     

BRETTON WOODS - ORIGINAL INTENTIONS AND CURRENT PROBLEMS

The Bretton Woods institutions have been subjected to a variety of criticisms in recent years and have been faced with severe problems in carrying out their objectives. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank have not performed in accordance with the original intentions of their founders. As shown in this article, this is in large measure because the world economic environment has been quite different from that envisaged by the participants in the Bretton Woods conference. Many of the original intended functions for these institutions are no longer relevant. This article examines the current problems facing the IMF and World Bank, with special attention to how they are related to the original intentions. For example, in recent years, a major problem has been the financial crises of member countries that have liberalized their economies in line with trends toward globalization. These crises have resulted in demands on the IMF and World Bank for financial assistance for purposes other than those for which their assistance was originally designed. Other problems of the two institutions include providing assistance to the world's poorest countries that have made virtually no development progress in recent years, and assisting the former communist countries in transition to market economies. The author gives his personal views on how these and other problems of the IMF and World Bank should be dealt with.     

ASIA'S ROLE IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC ARCHITECTURE

The global economic and financial landscape has been transformed over the past decade by the growing economic size and financial power of emerging economies. The new Group of Twenty summit process, which includes the largest emerging economies, has established high‐level international policy cooperation in this new setting. This article argues that effective global economic governance will also require changes in key global organizations—such as the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, World Trade Organization, and the Financial Stability Board—and closer collaboration between global and regional organizations. We suggest that federalism be introduced on a global scale by creating hierarchies of global and regional organizations with overlapping ownership structures in various functional areas (as is already the case with the World Bank and regional development banks in the area of development finance). Asia could contribute to this transformation by building effective institutions to promote macroeconomic and financial stability and deepen regional trade and investment integration. Similar logic could be applied to a broader issue of providing international public goods, such as environmental and climate protection, communicable disease control, and disaster risk management. (JEL F02, F13, F33, F55, O59)     

Global Trade Liberalisation: Coordination and Coherence

Globalisation is a major issue in international debate. The demonstrations in Seattle in 1999 showed that there is a high level of public concern over the growth of world trade and the institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the World Trade Organisation (WTO), that have key roles in global trade and development. Much of the concern relates to developing countries and their place in the international economy. This article is an edited version of a paper presented by His Excellency Dr Supachai Panitchpakdi as the 2000 David Finch Lecture at the University of Melbourne on 5 July 2000. Dr Supachai is a key player in the development of the international economy and is the next Director General of the WTO. In his article, Dr Supachai addresses many of the concerns relating to globalisation and developing countries. He discusses the key issues facing the WTO and world trade in general, focusing on the need for both coordination and coherence in the development of international economic relations. In particular, he highlights the need for an inclusive approach to international trade liberalisation.     

Window of Opportunity Opens: Asian and American Views of the International Economic Architecture

This paper compares US and Asian views of the international economic architecture including Asia's evolving regional institutions. Lessons from the global financial crisis are used to assess reforms of the financial institutions better to prevent and manage future crises. While G-20 leaders have increased the resources of the International Monetary Fund, much work remains to restore its legitimacy and independence and to define clearly the Financial Stability Board's mandate to strengthen financial oversight and regulation. The paper critiques proposals for a global super-regulator and concludes that while the global architecture is important, the tests of its success will be fewer government actions to self-insure and the willingness to heed warnings of future problems and take timely corrective actions.     

The IMF as just One Creditor: Who’s in Charge When a Country Can’t Pay?

ABSTRACT

The international community’s management of the 2010 financial crisis in Greece revealed a major gap in the international financial system. No single institution is any longer unambiguously in charge. Consequently, the path is open for narrow interests to predominate over global interests. An examination of postwar history shows that this problem has been growing gradually since the 1970s and has become much greater since the mid-1990s. To alleviate the problem, the International Monetary Fund needs to develop an effective strategy for reducing the opportunities for creditor countries to intervene in decisions on how crises should be resolved.     

The International Financial Crisis Viewed by Experts

The occurrence of the international financial crisis and the spread out of its effects on the global economy prompted experts around the world to think about how to manage the crisis and which measures to implement in order to restore normal economic and financial conditions. In this paper, we present and discuss the results of an international expert survey. We use these experts' perceptions to pursue a twofold target to understand their perceptions about the causes of the crisis, and of the policies to solve it. Interestingly, experts seem to broadly concur on what caused the crisis but their perceptions diverge regarding the policies. Furthermore, substantial differences in perceptions emerge between the Euro Area and the United States. We also find that the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank monetary policies during the crisis are judged barely adequate. Finally, different views distinguish academicians from other experts .     

Globalization: A Critical Introduction

The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) were endorsed unanimously by all 189 UN member states and emerged as one of the central pillars of the global fight against poverty. However, the changes the MDGs brought about have been mixed at best. Though there are some notable successes, the MDGs have failed to bring about a substantial shift towards tackling global poverty and have had only a weak impact on the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. Several reasons are put forward for this failure: the continuing lack of political concern with poverty; the lack of a social movement behind the MDGs; and the lack of a well formed epistemic community for the MDGs to tie into. However, this paper argues that it would be wrong to dismiss the MDGs as a complete failure. The MDG project should instead be seen in a long term context as having played a role in changing international values and contributed to the emergence of an international norm that sees poverty in an affluent world as being morally unacceptable.     

Hidden in Plain Sight: Unpaid Household Services and the Politics of GDP Measurement

ABSTRACT

Gross domestic product (GDP) is one of the world’s most influential and widely cited economic indicators. However, outside of the industrialised, market-based context in which the indicator was first designed, GDP measurement suffers from a number of biases and blind spots. The article zooms in on one of these: the exclusion of unpaid household services from the production boundary of the System of National Accounts, the international standard underpinning GDP methodology. While GDP has expanded over time to include activities as diverse as financial services and the informal sector, the treatment of unpaid household services has remained unchanged. Why is this? I find that staff in the statistical departments of international organisations such the United Nations, International Monetary Fund and World Bank have a tremendous degree of agency in the governance of GDP. While these statisticians are aware of and engage with criticisms, they reject the inclusion of unpaid household services based on shared professional norms and economic ideas.     

全球性税制改革的经验与教训

20世纪80年代以来,税制改革风潮几乎遍及了全世界。通过对发达国家和发展中国家税制改革的研究和世界银行、国际货币组织的研究,为确定最佳税制改革方案将起到有益的借鉴作用。     

Regional and Global Responses to the Asian Crisis

This paper examines how economic policy-making changed as a result of the Asian crisis of 1997–1998, in the countries affected, in the region, and at the global level. It is perhaps surprising how little change has occurred in the broad approach to economic policy, but there is a much greater awareness of the vulnerabilities posed by large international capital flows. The broad tenets of the Washington Consensus, with its market-based policies, remain in place, but there is a recognition that well-functioning markets require complex institutions, rules, and procedures, and that these take time and effort to develop. Most of this institutional development will have to take place at the national level, but regional arrangements can offer support, and multilateral agencies, such as the International Monetary Fund, have learned from the crisis.     

The Presence of Multinational Banks and the Supply and Quality of Credit in Emerging Economies

Barriers to entry for multinational banks (MNBs) have been reduced in many countries. This paper studies the effect of the presence of MNBs on the supply and quality of credit in emerging economies. This study uses data from the Bank for International Settlements and the International Monetary Fund. The results indicate that the credit supply declines in response to increased competition from MNBs. However, the adverse effect of MNBs on the credit supply is less pronounced when the presence of MNBs is larger. The paper also provides some tentative results on the effect of MNBs on the quality of loans. The results suggest that banks shift their portfolios away from loans as a result of increased international financial competition, thereby reducing default risk, which is also reflected in a negative relationship between MNB presence and the chance of a banking crisis occurring.     

An unlikely Phoenix: The recovery of Argentina’s monetary and financial system from its ashes in the 2000s and its lessons

The study discusses the recovery of the Argentine financial system after the crisis of the so called convertibility regime of the 1990s. The Argentine macroeconomic regime established in 1991 and based on the hard peg of the peso to the dollar at a 1 to 1 parity ended in a multiple crisis in 2001–2. Beyond the default on the public debt, the crisis also involved the breakdown of the domestic financial system, and an almost complete isolation of the country from the international financial markets as a consequence of the default. Under such a deep crisis and the consequent uncertainty, the recovery of the solvency of the financial institutions was an almost insurmountable enterprise. However, with a gradualist approach (contrary to the advice of the International Monetary Fund) and a degree of “regulatory forbearance,” the financial and monetary authorities were able to recover the health of the financial system, which became much more resilient to shocks, even if its development has been very slow and, as a consequence, the contribution of domestic credit to the economic expansion of the 2000s can be considered almost negligible.     

Weak and strong sustainability in the SEEA: Concepts and measurement

In this paper, we explain how the latest international handbook on environmental accounting, the System of Integrated Environmental and Economic Accounting or SEEA (United Nations, European Commission, International Monetary Fund, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and World Bank (2003). Handbook of National Accounting, Studies in Methods. New York, United Nations.), can be used to measure weak and strong sustainability. We emphasise the importance of understanding the conceptual differences between weak and strong sustainability. We then outline what we consider to be current best practice in measurement, all the time flagging the relationship between our discussion and that of the SEEA-2003. This is an important task in our view, because, despite covering a very wide range of relevant conceptual and empirical issues, the handbook is by design not meant to provide clear guidelines for the purpose of measuring sustainability in either its weak or strong version.     

当前世界性金融危机的马克思主义解读及其启示

国内外关于当前世界性金融危机的成因解释大多仅停留在技术和操作层面上,唯有马克思主义金融危机理论才指出了其本质和根源。虽然其也提出了一些化解措施,但由于时代不同,指导价值在现实的操作层面会略显不足。从战略的高度看当前世界性金融危机,首先,要对当前世界性的金融危机有一个准确认知;其次,要推进金融体制在改革中吸取西方资本主义国家在技术和操作层面上失败的教训;最后,要提防被当前金融危机下的意识形态之争所迷惑,坚定不移地走马克思主义中国化的创新之路。     

Eurozone crisis and BRIICKS stock markets: Contagion or market interdependence?

This paper examines the financial contagion in an emerging market setting by investigating the contagion effects of GIPSI (Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy), USA, UK and Japan markets on BRIICKS (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China, South Korea and South Africa) stock markets. During Euro-zone crisis period (October 19, 2009–January 31, 2012), the empirical results indicate that among GIPSI countries, Ireland, Italy and Spain appear to be most contagious for BRIICKS markets compared to Greece. The study reports that Brazil, India, Russia, China and South Africa are strongly hit by the contagion shock during the Eurozone crisis period. However, Indonesia and South Korea report only interdependence and not contagion. From policy perspective, the findings provide useful implications for possible decoupling strategies to insulate the economy from contagious effects. For multilateral organizations like International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, the study will provide an important direction in undertaking coordinated rescue measures for the vulnerable as well as contagious countries.     

Stiglitz on Globalization and Development with an Eye to Keynes

Abstract

Joseph Stiglitz has laid out many of the issues central to the debate on globalization in a compelling story in a recent influential book. Globalization has become a contentious issue because the economic policies advocated for and, at times, almost imposed upon developing countries by international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the World Trade Organization are based on misconceptions about how market systems work. Market fundamentalism underlies the entire policy framework of the Washington Consensus. The limits of this approach are nowhere clearer than in the examples presented by developing and transition economies. Many policy missteps could have been avoided by adopting the main insights of traditional Keynesian theory, the basic lessons of which remain valid, even if it has been largely excised from the IMF's recipe book. The results of 20 years of market fundamentalism make it clear that globalization and development are distinct issues and that the former does not necessarily entail the latter. In order to understand how they are connected we need to supplement macroeconomic analysis with studies of how international economic integration comes about.     

从“特里芬难题”看美元的扩张及其影响

随着世界经济贸易的不断扩展和国际货币需求的日益增加,美元对国外的供给将不断扩大,但如果美国国际收支持续出现顺差,则美元的供给就将减少,难以满足国际需求;如果美国国际收支持续出现逆差,则又不利于美元价值的稳定,就要导致美元的贬值,这一点,罗伯特·特星芬早在20世纪60年代就做出了准确的预测。发生在美国的金融危机与美国半个多世纪以来的周期性国际收支失衡和美元极度扩张密切相关,美元的不稳定使国际金融体系变得更加脆弱。美元扩张已经积累了巨大的全球金融体系的风险,使全球经济面临上世纪大萧条以来最为严重的金融和经济危机。     

For how long do IMF forecasts of world economic growth stay up-to-date?

This study analyses the performance of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook output forecasts for the world and for both the advanced economies and the emerging and developing economies. With a focus on the forecast for the current year and the next year, we examine the durability of IMF forecasts, looking at how much time has to pass so that IMF forecasts can be improved by using leading indicators with monthly updates. Using a real-time data set for GDP and for indicators, we find that some simple single-indicator forecasts on the basis of data that are available at higher frequency can significantly outperform the IMF forecasts as soon as the publication of the IMF’s Outlook is only a few months old. In particular, there is an obvious gain using leading indicators from January to March for the forecast of the current year.