互联网产业集聚能否缓解地区资源错配——基于长三角41个城市的经验分析

以长三角地区41个城市为研究对象,基于要素流动、空间溢出、政府干预等视角,运用多步多重中介效应模型、空间杜宾模型、面板门槛模型,分析互联网产业集聚对资源错配的作用机制。研究表明：①互联网产业集聚能够有效缓解劳动力错配和资本错配;②互联网产业集聚和资源错配间存在链式中介效应,表现为互联网产业集聚能够促进第二三产业协同集聚,从而抑制无效的劳动力流动和资本流动,提升劳动力流动和资本流动质量,进而缓解劳动力错配和资本错配;③互联网产业集聚具有空间溢出效应,能够显著改善本地区和邻近城市劳动力错配,同时,改善邻近地区资本错配;④政府干预具有显著的单门槛效应,互联网产业集聚对劳动力错配和资本错配的缓解在一定程度上受政府干预的影响。鉴于此,研究提出,长三角地区应进一步推进互联网产业集群建设与产业协同集聚发展,发挥互联网产业集聚对要素流动量与质的调节作用,同时,政府干预也要适度。     

新兴市场国家国际资本流动“突然停止”的影响因素分析--基于金融脆弱性的视角

在金融全球化的背景下,脆弱的国内金融体系会波及国际资本市场,导致国际资本流动发生剧烈波动甚至“突然停止”。运用面板Probit模型考察1976-2012年22个新兴市场国家国际资本流动“突然停止”的影响因素,着重探讨一国金融脆弱性对国际资本流动“突然停止”的影响。实证研究结果表明：一国的金融脆弱性对国际资本流动“突然停止”具有显著的负影响;金融开放会放大一国的金融脆弱程度,进一步提高国际资本流动“突然停止”的发生概率。     

政府创新偏好、创新要素流动与制造业升级

利用2004—2019年中国内地30个省域面板数据，系统考察创新人员流动和创新资本流动对制造业升级的影响效应及政府创新偏好的调节效应。结果表明，创新人员流动和创新资本流动均对制造业高级化、合理化有显著积极作用。影响机制检验表明，创新人员流动和创新资本流动通过提升创新能力间接推动制造业高级化、合理化；政府创新偏好在创新资本流动与制造业高级化、合理化以及创新人员流动与制造业高级化之间有显著正向调节作用，但对创新人员流动与制造业合理化的调节作用不显著；在两类创新要素流动推动制造业升级过程中，政府创新偏好的调节作用呈现非线性特征。结论对引导创新要素合理流动，推动制造业高级化、合理化发展具有重要借鉴意义。     

中国新型城镇化进程中城乡收入差距的影响研究

本文基于新经济地理学框架推导得出城乡劳动力、资本投资、市民化缺口等因素对城乡收入差距具有重要影响,随后采用静态及动态空间面板计量方法进行实证检验.结果表明我国城乡收入差距具有显著的空间溢出效应,新型城镇化战略的实施对缩小城乡收入差距已具有一定效果.其中,城镇资本投资和劳动力流动确是影响我国城乡收入差距的最重要因素,此外城市建设、教育和科技等措施也具有一定的影响,但作用较小.     

资本结构选择的影响因素——来自中国上市公司的新证据

以中国上市公司为样本,采用逐步回归法,对企业资本结构影响因素进行了实证分析。结果表明,资产担保价值与资产负债率和长期负债率显著正相关;非负债税盾与资产负债和流动负债率显著负相关;成长性与资产负债率、长期负债率和银行借款比率显著正相关;盈利能力与资产负债率、长期负债率和银行借款比率显著负相关;企业规模与资产负债率、流动负债率、长期负债率及银行借款比率显著正相关;变异性与资产负债率和流动负债率显著正相关;公司年龄与资产负债率、流动负债率及银行借款比率显著正相关,但与长期负债率负相关;另外,行业效应可能也是影响企业资本结构选择的重要因素。     

转型经济中公司资本结构对企业价值有影响吗?——基于中国上市公司面板数据的实证分析

笔者以中国上市公司为例,运用面板数据,分析了转型经济中公司资本结构对企业价值是否存在以及存在何种影响,同时对影响上市公司企业价值的其他因素进行了分析.研究结果显示:中国上市公司资本结构对其企业价值有着显著的影响,资本结构的提高可以在很大程度上促进企业价值的提升.同时,国有股比例、股权集中度以及企业规模等因素对上市公司企业价值也会产生一定的影响.此外,研究还发现:资本结构以及其他影响因素对上市公司企业价值的影响具有截面固定效应和时期固定效应.     

人民币国际化进程中的短期资本流动:特征、风险与管理

随着人民币国际化进程的加速椎进,我国短期资本流动的规模和波动性显著增加,对我国宏观经济风险的影响也日益显著.全球主要大国的货币国际化条件变量与其短期资本流动之间存在着显著的关系.货币国际化程度的提高对短期资本流动的规模具有促进作用,反映在汇率稳定性、金融市场完善程度、金融市场开放度、国际贸易中的份额以及国内经济的稳定性等条件的提高等方面,这既为货币国际化提供了基础条件,又促进了短期资本流动规模的扩大.短期资本流动对我国宏观经济风险的影响主要集中于价格变量,如利率、CPI变化等领域,对实体经济变量,如GDP和进出口等的波动性影响相对较小.     

社会资本、法治水平对金融发展的影响分析

利用实证数据研究社会资本与法治水平对地区金融发展的影响。结果表明,在不考虑社会资本这一因素时,法治水平的提高对地区金融发展具有一定的促进效应,但这个效应有限,而转型期的社会资本对金融发展具有显著影响:(1)社会资本对地区金融发展具有显著的正效应;(2)社会资本还是对法治水平低下的一种有效替代机制。     

国际资本流动对经济增长的影响分析——基于国际数据的实证研究

基于1994～2009年68个国家的年度数据构建Panel Data变截距固定效应模型,通过对资本流向和流动方式的进一步细分,来考察资本流动对不同发展水平国家经济增长的影响。结果显示:境外国际资本流入对转型国家经济增长的促进作用明显强于发达国家,对发展中国家经济效应不显著;国际资本流出仅对发达国家经济增长有显著的促进作用,对发展中国家和转型国家的经济效应均不显著。     

人民币离岸套利对在岸外汇市场的动态影响——基于状态空间模型的实证分析

本文运用状态空间模型,选择2010年10月至2012年9月的月度数据,估计了离岸与在岸人民币汇差、利差以及人民币升值预期对我国外汇储备和短期跨境资本流动的动态影响.结果表明:离岸与在岸即期汇差的扩大在推动我国外汇储备规模增加的同时,会引发短期资本流入;在岸与离岸利差对我国外汇储备规模增加具有显著的正效应,并推动短期资本流出;人民币升值预期对我国外汇储备规模增加具有显著的负效应,并可能促使短期资本流入.三个因素当中,在岸与离岸利差变动对我国外汇储备规模变动的贡献率最大,而人民币升值预期对短期资本流动的解释能力最高.     

Capital flows and economic growth revisited: evidence from five Sub-Saharan African countries

The study examines the differential effects of capital flows on economic growth in five Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries over the period 1970–2014. Using the autoregressive distributed lag methodology, the findings show that in the long-run capital flows (i.e. foreign direct investment (FDI), aid, external debt, and remittances) have different effects on economic growth. FDI has a significant positive effect in Burkina Faso and negative effects in Gabon and Niger whereas the impact of debt is negative in all countries. Aid, however, promotes growth in Niger and Gabon whiles it deters growth in Ghana. Remittances, on the other hand, have a significant positive effect in Senegal. Finally, gross capital formation is significant in most of the countries and the impact of trade is mixed. These results suggest that the benefits of capital flows in SSA have been overemphasized.     

Exchange rate volatility and capital inflows: role of financial development

There is vast literature examining the impact of exchange rate volatility on various macroeconomic aggregates such as economic growth, trade flows, domestic investment, and more recently capital flows. However, these studies have ignored the role of financial development while examining the impact of exchange rate volatility on capital flows. This study aims to analyze the impact of exchange rate volatility on capital inflows towards developing countries by incorporating the role of financial development over the time period 1980–2013. In this regard, the behavior of two types of capital flows is examined: physical capital inflows measured as foreign direct investment, and financial inflows quantified through remittance inflows. The empirical investigation comprises the direct as well as indirect effect of exchange rate volatility on capital inflows. The study employs dynamic system GMM estimation technique to empirically estimate the effect of exchange rate volatility on capital inflows. The empirical results of the study identify that exchange rate volatility dampens both physical and financial inflows towards developing countries. The indirect impact of exchange rate volatility through financial development, however, turns out positive and statistically significant. This finding reflects that financial development helps in reducing the harmful impact of exchange rate volatility on capital inflows. Hence, the study concludes that a developed financial system is an important channel through which developing countries may improve capital inflows in the long run.     

Sudden stops, banking crises and investment collapses in emerging markets

We evaluate whether financial openness leaves emerging market economies vulnerable to the adverse effects of capital reversals (“sudden stops”) on domestic investment. We investigate this claim in a broad sample of emerging markets during the period 1976–2002. If the banking sector does not experience a systemic crisis, sudden stop events fail to have a significant impact on investment. Bank crises, on the other hand, have a significant negative effect on investment even in the absence of a contemporaneous sudden stop crisis. We also find that openness to capital flows worsens the adverse impact of banking crises on investment. Our results provide statistical support for the policy view that a strong banking sector which can withstand the negative fallout of capital flight is essential for countries that open their economies to international financial flows.     

Private capital inflows and stock market interface in sub-Saharan Africa

The financial market school of thought argues that financial market plays a key role in facilitating capital flows to less developed countries of the world. This school considers stock market a strong and potent channel of attracting and mobilizing capital for development across the globe. The study in this paper is therefore undertaken to determine the validity of this argument, by investigating how the stock market interfaces with other variables to influence capital flows to sub-Saharan Africa. The empirical evidence clearly validates the importance of stock market by showing its direct positive impact on all the components of private capital inflows, an impact that is significantly enhanced by return on investment in the market. The stock market is also revealed to have a maximum threshold that suggests it possesses the capacity to channel a significant proportion of potential capital inflows. These findings point to the importance of raising the level of stock market development in order to attract more capital flows to the region, and indeed the less developed regions of the world.     

国际资本流动风险及有效监管

本文通过分析国际间资本流入,尤其是短期的投机资本流入和对外债务资金流入的风险,以及资本流出的风险,揭示了田际资本流动对中国经济所造成的巨大影响,同时,针对目前国际资本流动的主角--私人资本流动的现象进行了剖析,提出了加强对国际资本流动的监管,提高金融监管有效性的政策建议.     

Are price-based capital account regulations effective in developing countries?

In this article, we evaluate the effectiveness of policy measures adopted by Chile and Colombia aiming to mitigate the deleterious effects of pro-cyclical capital flows. In the case of Chile, according to our GMM analysis, capital controls succeeded in reducing net short-term capital flows, but did not affect long-term flows. As far as Colombia is concerned, the regulations were capable of affecting total flows and also long-term ones. In addition, our cointegration models indicate that the regulations did not have a direct effect on the real exchange rate in the Chilean case. Nonetheless, the model used for Colombia did detect a direct impact of the capital controls on the real exchange rate. Therefore, our results do not seem to support the idea that those regulations were easily evaded.     

Does Financial Sector Development Augment Cross-Border Capital Flows?

ABSTRACT

The sharp increase in volatility of capital flows in recent years has resulted in many countries altering the regulations governing the flow of foreign capital only to find such changes having a limited impact. We postulate that one reason for the limited effectiveness of such changes in regulations is the level of financial sector development in the country. As a country enhances its level of financial sector development, it also develops more and more sophisticated financial instruments. The more advanced the domestic financial instruments are, and the deeper is the integration of the domestic financial markets with the world markets, the greater is the likelihood of developing strategies to bypass capital account management measures. In this paper, we use various empirical techniques to identify the impact of financial sector development on capital flows, after accounting for regulatory regime. The empirical results indicate that there is a threshold effect in the financial sector development capital flow relationship. In particular, financial sector development augments greater integration with global capital flows only above a threshold level. Below the threshold level we find financial development reduces the extent of integration with global capital markets.     

THE DETERMINANTS OF PRIVATE CAPITAL FLOWS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES: THE ROLE OF THE FED'S UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY

Previous studies on the effect of the Fed's Unconventional Monetary Policy on capital flows in Emerging Economies have not been conclusive. I analyze if the effect of these policies on capital flows is heterogeneous between countries. This approach could be the smoking gun in this debate as I attempt to find evidence of a specific mechanism by which Unconventional Monetary Policy could affect the pattern of capital flows in Emerging Economies. The results suggest that Unconventional Monetary Policy has a significant effect on capital flows which depends on the type of measure adopted and the degree of financial exposure of each country to the United States. (JEL C23, E52, E58, F21, F32)     

跨境资本流动对货币政策有效性的影响研究——基于系统性风险视角的分析

日益频繁的跨境资本流动势必引发系统性风险，进而对货币政策有效性造成冲击，严重威胁我国的经济金融稳定。本文构建四部门DSGE模型并利用脉冲响应函数及模拟技术检验跨境资本流动对我国货币政策有效性的影响。研究发现，跨境资本流动加速了我国系统性风险累积过程，价格型与数量型货币政策的有效性均受到削弱。因此，随着我国经济国际化进程的不断加深，仅仅依靠传统货币政策已经无法有效应对系统性风险，需要采取更多样的措施。     

Do remittances and foreign aid augment the gross savings: Bangladesh,India and Philippines perspective?

Savings is considered to be a principal determinant to achieve long-run economic growth. Remittances and foreign aid are two important foreign capital inflows to meet the savings deficiency of developing nations. The objective of this study is to investigate the long-run impact of remittance to stimulate savings in remittance recipient countries. This paper contributes to the macroeconomic impact of remittance through a comparative study on Bangladesh, India and Philippines that positioned among the top ten largest remittance recipient countries from 2008 and onwards. The analysis makes use of an annual time series data over the period of 1980–2015. The Johansen cointegration test suggested long-run cointegrating relationship of remittance and foreign aid on gross savings. The test result suggests positive effect of remittances on gross savings for Bangladesh and Philippines although an insignificant negative effect for India. However, foreign aid has significant negative long-run impact in all the three cases. Government policy should focus on leveraging remittance flows to facilitate savings and investment for capital accumulation.