创新、企业家活动配置与长期经济增长

本文继承并扩展了熊彼特关于企业家精神的思想,把企业家活动的配置引入内生技术创新模式。在本文中,企业家活动的配置决定了一个经济的R&D投入水平,技术水平和经济增长率。不同经济活动的报酬结构决定了企业家活动的配置,而且报酬结构是内生的,并且存在历史依赖性。本文的突破包括两个方面:一是把企业家活动的配置引入宏观的分析中,考察了企业家活动的配置对宏观总量的影响;二是把企业家活动的配置对经济活动影响的一般性分析引入创新活动分析中,考察了企业家活动的配置、相对报酬结构与技术创新水平之间的动态关系。本文的政策含义是,要提高经济中R&D投入水平,进而提高技术创新水平以及经济增长率,就必须通过政治、经济、法律和文化制度创新,营造激励创新的报酬结构,促使企业家更多地从事生产性的创新活动,经济才能打破低水平均衡陷阱,趋向较发达的均衡。本文对我国实施自主创新的国家战略具有重要的政策含义。     

南方国家知识产权保护与南北经济收敛

文章基于南北分析框架下的内生增长模型,分析了南方知识产权保护对同时进行自主创新和国外模仿的南方国家与进行创新的北方国家的经济收敛的影响,得出了与已有国际技术扩散模型不同的结论:当南方国家相对技术水平高于临界值时,加强南方知识产权保护可促进南北经济收敛;当南方相对技术水平低于临界值时,加强南方知识产权保护则降低南方经济增长率,不利于南北经济收敛;并且南方模仿能力的提高会改变知识产权保护对南北经济收敛的影响。     

企业家活动、品牌资本与经济增长

文章在内生经济增长模式下将企业家生产性活动分解并把品牌资本纳入到代表性企业家生产函数中来探讨最优经济增长问题,从而一定程度上解释了发达经济体与落后经济体经济发展的差异。基本结论是:一个经济体的最优增长依赖于经济中企业家的比例,经济中企业家的密度越大,经济增长率就越高;企业家通过权衡两类劳动对经济贡献的大小来配置劳动和创新品牌,寻求企业家活动配置组合最优,以使福利极大化。     

知识产权保护对经济增长的影响: 一个基于垂直创新的技术扩散模型

本文首先在垂直创新的思想下构建了一个内生增长的技术扩散模型,并给出了稳态解求解的方法.然后,以上述模型为基础,本文着重讨论了跟随国知识产权保护对稳态经济的影响.本文的研究结果表明,加强跟随国知识产权保护力度将降低领导国的创新速度和跟随国的模仿速度,从而降低稳态经济增长率.所以,就稳态而言,加强跟随国知识产权保护力度对领导国经济和跟随国经济都会产生负面影响.     

国际货币主导权、美元本位制与世界经济——一个世界经济核算模型

在广义虚拟经济迅速发展的今天,美国凭借美元主导国际货币地位实施量化宽松的货币政策,试图推动本国经济增长,其效果和对世界经济的影响成为关注的热点。透过本文构建的世界经济核算模型可知,主导国发行国际货币在各国资源被利用的不同情况下,对本国、他国和世界经济产生不同的影响。美元供给增长率与美国、东亚等地区和整个世界的经济增长率、通货膨胀率和出(进)口/GDP的灰色关联分析证实,美元发行对东亚等地区和世界经济增长的影响大于对本国经济的影响。美国用量化宽松政策推动本国经济增长在理论和实证方面都得不到验证。     

发展中国家的实用新型专利与自主创新

利用扩展的南方和北方产品周期模型探讨发展中国家的知识产权保护对自主创新和经济增长的影响,其中北方厂商进行突破性发明创新,南方厂商进行渐进性实用新型创新,北方厂商通过直接投资将生产从北方转移到南方。研究发现,严格的南方知识产权保护总是激励自主创新,对于北方创新和FDI的影响则取决于南方模仿率和创新率的初始水平:如果南方模仿率和实用新型创新率都比较低,那么严格的知识产权保护导致北方创新率和FDI率减慢,不利于南方经济增长;如果南方模仿率或实用新型创新率较高,那么严格的知识产权保护会促进北方创新、FDI和经济增长。     

论制度与企业家活动

企业家和制度之间存在双边的因果关系:一方面,制度框架决定企业家活动。制度决定了企业家是选择寻利还是选择寻租,这种决定对一国技术创新和经济发展会产生深远的影响;我国转型时期制度的不完全导致了企业家大量的寻租行为,这是制约中国技术创新和持久发展的一个深层次问题。另一方面,企业家能够通过公开倡导等四种方法对他们面临的制度环境作出反应,企业家活动反过来又影响制度的产生和演化。制度与企业家活动的双边因果关系告诉我们,容忍和保护制度企业家并习惯于将制度企业家的个别创新努力一般化的社会,将能够更多地分享制度创新所带来的经济增长。     

企业家精神与中国经济增长——基于C-D生产函数的实证研究

本文试图研究企业家精神对中国宏观经济增长的影响。通过对企业家精神衡量标准的比较分析表明,企业进入情况较好地反映了中国转轨时期企业家的创新行为。因此,企业进入比率是衡量企业家精神的较好尺度。将企业家精神纳入到C-D函数中,假定企业家精神与经济增长存在线性关系,通过实证研究表明,企业家精神对中国经济增长的贡献显著。从企业进入情况来看,在资本、劳动力以及技术因素不变条件下,企业进入比率增加1个百分点,经济增长率提高0.54个百分点。     

中国经济增长与能源消费增长——基于产业构成视角的研究

基于经济增长的产业构成角度,本文实证检验了我国经济增长对能源消费增长率的影响。能源消费增长率与经济增长的三大产业构成之间关系的研究表明,虽然三大产业的增长是我国经济增长的重要动力,但它们对能源消费增长率的影响却不相同。具体而言,第一产业和第三产业的增长对能源消费增长率并没有显著影响,第二产业的增长导致了能源消费增长率的上升。能源消费增长率与经济增长的六大产业部门构成之间关系的分析显示,工业和交通运输业的增长是推动我国能源消费增长率上升的主要力量。对上述实证研究结果产生的原因,本文从我国工业化进程中各产业产出增长和产业结构演变对能源消费增长的影响给予了解释。最后提出相应的政策含义。     

计划生育政策是否促进了中国经济增长?——基于教育人力资本视角的理论和经验研究

本文在新古典经济增长模型中纳入教育人力资本因素,构建了刻画人口增长率和人口抚养比对经济增长影响的理论模型,并使用中国29个省区1990²010年的面板数据对模型进行了经验检验,研究发现:人口增长率和人口抚养比对中国经济增长产生了显著的负向影响,从而说明计划生育政策通过控制人口出生率降低了抚养比和人口增长率,有利于人力资本的积累,为中国的经济增长做出了贡献。因此,至少对我国经济增长而言,计划生育政策功不可没,是需要长期坚持的基本国策。     

Entrepreneurship and productivity: The slow growth of the planned economies

Trends in gross domestic product (GDP) and total factor productivity (TFP) growth in the former socialist economies seem to indicate that these economies were converging to unusually low long-run growth rates in the late 1980s. In this paper we develop an endogenous growth model of entrepreneurship that is able to account for the difference in long-run performance between centrally planned economies and market-oriented ones. Long-run growth rates of output and productivity are determined by the growth of the stock of managerial knowledge, which in turn depends on the share of the population involved in entrepreneurial activities and on the time that spent on those activities. We analyze the effect of two characteristics of centrally planned economies on their growth performance. First, in centrally planned economies factors of production are distributed by the central planner to the firms' managers through a contest that uses up some of the managers' productive effort. Second, the leadership is “egalitarian,” in the sense that it treats individuals with different abilities equally. We show that these two features reduce the fraction of people becoming entrepreneurs/managers, as well as their managerial effort, which in turn reduces long-run output and TFP growth. Furthermore, we find that centrally planned economies have lower income inequality and slightly higher capital–output ratios, which is consistent with these countries' experiences.     

Entrepreneurial Skills,Technological Progress,and Firm Growth*

Using cross-country establishment-level data, I show that employment profiles over a firm's life cycle are flatter in fast-growing economies than in slow-growing economies. The difference in average employment over the firm's life cycle increases with plant age. I propose a frictionless overlapping-generations model with exogenous technological progress. Firm productivity also depends on entrepreneurs’ skills. Entrepreneurs can increase their skills over their life cycle, but the growth of the vintage component of younger cohorts’ skills is higher in fast-growing economies than in slow-growing economies. This model is able to explain most of the differences observed in the sample between fast-growing and slow-growing economies.     

The management function of entrepreneurs and countries’ productivity growth

This article examines the determinants of the equilibrium number of entrepreneurs and the level of productivity in economies where individuals make occupational choices between being self-employed or working as an employee. The results of the theoretical model explain some observed empirical regularities, such as the negative association between productivity and self-employment rates in cross-country data. The article also derives and empirically tests an unexplored relationship between entrepreneurship and economic growth, in the form of a positive association between productivity growth in t and the proportion of the self-employed in t???1, providing a new perspective on cross-country productivity convergence over time.     

Credit quantity and credit quality: Bank competition and capital accumulation

In this paper we show that bank competition has an intrinsically ambiguous impact on capital accumulation. We further show that it is also responsible for the emergence of development traps in economies that otherwise would be characterized by unique equilibria. These results explain the conflicting evidence emerging from the recent empirical studies of the effects of bank competition on economic growth. We obtain them developing a dynamic, general equilibrium model of capital accumulation where banks operate in a Cournot oligopoly. More banks lead to a higher quantity of credit available to entrepreneurs, but also to diminished incentives to offer relationship services that improve the likelihood of success of investment projects. We also show that conditioning on one key parameter resolves the theoretical ambiguity: in economies where intrinsic market uncertainty is high (low), less (more) competition leads to higher capital accumulation.     

Remittances,Dutch Disease,and Manufacturing Growth in Developing Economies

Remittances have grown tremendously in magnitude and economic importance in the past four decades, providing economies with additional disposable incomes and even serving as buffers against economic downturns. It is thus but fitting to ask how remittances have impacted on growth, particularly on manufacturing growth. This note presents a simple model linking remittances and manufacturing growth via a ‘Dutch Disease’ channel. Using Blundell and Bond's (1998) system general method of moments on a panel dataset of 56 developing economies from 1992 to 2016, we verify that remittances adversely affect manufacturing growth in economies that experience high real appreciation rates. This result is robust to alternate specifications, such as the inclusion of financial development indicators, the expansion of the sample to include high‐income economies, and the use of different sample periods.     

Diminished Returns? Growth and Investment in East Asia

This paper investigates the investment-led growth hypothesis for the newly industrialized economies of East Asia. Using numerical simulations and a neoclassical model, it is shown that the revolution in investment rates only explains about 30 per cent of the growth of GDP per worker. In contrast, productivity growth and improvements in labour quality, explain around half the growth of GDP per -worker. This reflects the effects of productivity growth on capital accumulation. Contrary to recent growth-accounting studies, the results suggest that understanding the sources of productivity growth in East Asia will provide the most useful lessons for other developing economies.     

Private information, money, and growth: Indeterminacy, fluctuations, and the Mundell-Tobin effect

We introduce an informational asymmetry into an otherwise standard monetary growth model and examine its implications for the determinacy of equilibrium, for endogenous economic volatility, and for the relationship between steady-state output and the rate of money growth. Some empirical evidence suggests that, for economies with low initial inflation rates, permanent increases in the money growth rate raise long-run output levels. This relationship is reversed for economies with high initial inflation rates. Our model predicts this pattern. Moreover, in economies with high enough rates of inflation, credit rationing emerges, monetary equilibria become indeterminate, and endogenous economic volatility arises.     

区域创业比较:基于江苏样本企业的实证研究

本文基于江苏创业活动的问卷调研数据,从区域社会资本差异、区域创业能力差异、区域创业战略差异、区域创业主体差异4个方面进行定量比较。比较发现:苏南苏北地区创业者的社会资本结构存在显著差异,不同社会资本类别对创业与创业发展的重要度也不一样,而且苏南地区创业者社会资本的冗余高于苏北地区,但在社会资本的利用方式上差异不明显。苏南地区的区域创业能力稍好于苏北,但均只处于中等水平。苏南苏北地区在创业方式、创业行业、创业规模与市场定位层面均存在有明显差异,苏南地区创业者更多的选择了独立创业,在行业上更多的进入了服务性行业,新创企业的规模整体上小于苏北,而且更多的定位于国内市场。从创业主体属性差异比较看,苏南创业者中女性比例高于苏北,创业者平均年龄低于苏北,平均受教育水平明显高于苏北,异地创业者所占比例明显高于苏北。     

Redistribution and entrepreneurship with Schumpeterian growth

We examine the effects of redistributive taxation on growth and inequality in a Schumpeterian model with risk-averse agents. There are skilled and unskilled workers, and the growth rate is determined by the occupational choice of skilled agents between entrepreneurship and employment. We show that redistribution provides insurance to entrepreneurs and increases the growth rate. The effects on inequality are such that low tax rates increase inequality relative to laissez-faire due to changes in wages, but higher tax rates can simultaneously raise growth and reduce inequality. We contrast the optimal linear income tax with alternative policies for promoting R&D and find that it is preferable on both equity and efficiency grounds.      

Liquidity risk, economic development, and the effects of monetary policy

Empirical evidence indicates that monetary policy is not super-neutral in many countries. In particular, in high inflation economies, inflation is negatively related to economic activity. By comparison, inflation may be positively correlated with output in low inflation countries. We present a neoclassical growth model with money in which the incidence of liquidity risk is inversely related to aggregate capital formation. Interestingly, there may be multiple monetary steady-states where the effects of monetary policy vary. In poor economies, the financial system is highly distorted and higher rates of money growth are associated with less capital formation. In contrast, in advanced economies, a Tobin effect is observed. Since inflation exacerbates distortions from a coordination failure in the low-capital steady-state, individuals become much more exposed to liquidity risk. Consequently, optimal monetary policy depends on the level of development.