Free Trade Agreements and the Prospects for Regional Integration in East Asia

Trade policy in East Asia has switched from non-discriminatory unilateral liberalization, reinforced by General Agreements on Tariffs and Trade/World Trade Organization (GATT/WTO) commitments, to discriminatory free trade agreements (FTA). The paper surveys the FTA activity of the major regional players: China, the ASEAN countries, Japan, and South Korea. It concludes that emerging FTAs are weak and partial. A hub-and-spoke pattern of dirty FTAs will not drive regional economic integration or further integration with the global economy. Rather, it could be a force of regional economic disintegration – especially if the multilateral trading system weakens further. At the same time, FTA activity is distracting attention from the WTO, and, more fundamentally, from unilateral liberalization and domestic structural reforms. Hence, East Asian trade policies need to be rebalanced, with better-quality FTAs and more focus on the WTO. However, more important than the WTO and FTAs is a fresh spurt of unilateral liberalization and structural reform outside trade negotiations.     

DOHA DEVELOPMENT ROUND: REACHING BEYOND TRADE LIBERALIZATION

Abstract.  While the WTO process of multilateral trade liberalization encounters increasing resistance, in part because the most difficult issues have finally risen to the top of the agenda, market-based forces are contributing to international economic integration. One of the most potent is cross-border production networks. This paper explores the implications of such networks for trade policies and development strategies. It argues that participation in production networks requires trade policy adjustments and domestic reforms that can and should be undertaken unilaterally and that such changes will improve the climate for WTO negotiations.     

On the emergence of an MFN club: equal treatment in an unequal world

Abstract .  Motivated by GATT, we endogenize the formation of a club whose members have to abide by the MFN principle of non-discrimination. The underlying model is that of oligopolistic intraindustry trade. While an MFN club does not alter average tariff levels across countries, it increases aggregate world welfare; makes non-members worse off; and can immiserize its high cost members. These results imply that (i) core WTO rules such as MFN are valuable even if multilateral negotiations deliver limited trade liberalization and (ii) the distributional effects of MFN maybe one reason why developing countries have been granted Special and Differential treatment at the WTO.     

区域经济一体化对多边自由贸易体制的影响——一个简单的制度经济学解释

区域经济一体化组织的出现是否有利于推动多边自由贸易的实现,这一问题已经引起了学者们的广泛关注.从制度经济学的角度看,先走区域经济一体化的道路,然后再进行区域经济组织的自由贸易合作,从而最终实现全球贸易的自由化,能够比"一味地"等待世界所有国家同时实现贸易的自由化给各利益主体带来更大的现期净收益.因此,相比WTO所推行的多边贸易自由化而言,区域经济一体化具有更多的现实性和可行性,它将为世界自由贸易的实现做阶段性准备.当然在此过程中,还应该注意加强WTO对区域经济一体化组织的监督和协调,以引导它向更有利于提高世界福利和贸易自由化的方向发展.     

DOHA,DEVELOPMENT AND DISCRIMINATION*

Abstract. Two distinct challenges confront WTO members – whether to ‘save’ the WTO’– that is, a multilateral trading system that is based on non‐discrimination and most favoured nation liberalization – and if so, how to do so, and determining what role the WTO should play in attaining (pursuing) national development objectives. This paper explores whether moves to achieve the first objective will help achieve the latter, and whether specific actions to pursue more seriously economic development objectives through the WTO could help move the system closer to achieving the goal of non‐discrimination.     

WTO ACCESSION AND CHINA's DOMESTIC REGIONAL LIBERALIZATION: A THEORETICAL ANALYSIS

Abstract.  This paper examines the implications of China's WTO accession for its domestic regional liberalization. We find first that, without WTO membership, regional liberalization might create a trade diversion that benefited only low-protection regions while harming high-protection regions, and it might or might not benefit the country as a whole. Second, we find that WTO entry will benefit the whole country, whether there is regional liberalization or not. Third, we find that WTO entry will facilitate domestic regional liberalization.     

WTO与中国企业专利发展战略

WTO以贸易为中心,在全球范围内将货物贸易、服务贸易与知识产权紧密地联系在一起,从而实现了专利保护全球化,知识经济时代知识产权成为了企业生存发展的核心问题,企业的生产、经营、管理都必须以知识产权为中心进行战略定位。专利是市场经济下的一种合法垄断,专利就是市场,要积极发挥专利技术的市场效用。加入WTO以后,中国市场成为了全球市场,中国企业必须立足发展中国家的现实,积极进行战略布局,才能在与跨国公司的竞争中生存和发展。专利战略已成为中国企业实施可持续发展的战略选择,成为了中国企业开展市场竞争的战略重点,也是中国企业进行对外贸易的战略举措。     

Trade policy under the GATT/WTO: empirical evidence of the equal treatment rule

Abstract. A fundamental difference between multilateral trade agreements like the GATT and WTO and a preferential agreement is the multilateral agreements’ inclusion of a most‐favoured‐nation principle. Though MFN requires that members implement policies that provide equal treatment to all GATT/WTO countries, how far do members actually follow the MFN principle when so required? We empirically investigate a sample of GATT/WTO trade disputes and the effect of successful dispute settlement negotiations on the disputed product trade of third country exporters to the defendant country. We document evidence of trade liberalization consistent with defendant countries successfully applying the equal treatment rule. JEL classification F13     

Non-tariff measures: What's tariffs got to do with it?

After successive rounds of tariff reductions by GATT/WTO members, non-tariff measures (NTMs) have increasingly become the focal point of multilateral trade negotiations. It remains an open question whether the liberalization in tariff rates has subsequently been weakened or even erased by increases in NTMs. Using a product-level global panel of WTO members over the period 1996–2019, this paper systematically examines the empirical link between various tariff measures and the imposition of NTMs. I find that bound or applied tariff reductions do not correlate much on their own with NTM incidence. The relevant trade policy margin for detecting a tariff–NTM nexus is instead tariff overhangs, the difference between WTO members' bound and applied tariff rates. Countries impose more NTMs when their sectoral applied tariffs are close to their respective bound rates, indicating that small tariff overhangs signal limited legal trade policy flexibility.     

Market access and technology adoption in the presence of FDI

This paper theoretically investigates whether improved access to the domestic market speeds up new technology adoption by foreign firms. Foreign firms choose between exporting and foreign direct investment (FDI) to serve the domestic market. If two firms compete in the domestic market, multilateral liberalization of FDI or the realization of multilateral free trade may deter or delay technology adoption, while they always promote and accelerate technology adoption if only a single firm serves the domestic market. Technology adoption can be quickest and consumer welfare greatest when the fixed cost of FDI and the trade costs are neither very high nor very low. Preferential liberalization of FDI promotes the technology adoption of the targeted firm but may not benefit consumers because it discourages technology adoption of the non-targeted firm.     

WTO框架下中国金融市场开放的最优安排

加入WTO标志着中国的金融改革要向自由化方向迈进.本文从金融自由化与金融全球化的推进逻辑出发,分析了当中国引入WTO变量后,如何通过修正金融改革路径实现金融市场开放的最优选择.其中引言部分综述了金融自由化理论的发展及中国面临的挑战;第二部分提出引入WTO变量后中国金融改革路径的修正;第三部分实证性地研究了中国推进金融市场开放的最优顺序安排;最后是结论及进一步改革建议.     

Dual Labor Markets and Trade Reform in China

This paper specifically models rigidities in the labor market in China and analyzes the effect of labor market liberalization on economic growth using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Our results indicate that labor market reforms are essential to the realization of significant gains from China's accession in November 2001 to the World Trade Organization (WTO). In the absence of labor market reform, the gains to accession to the WTO are estimated to be minimal.     

Technology Transfer and Merger Activities with Trade and Tariffs

In order to better understand the effects of globalization on merger incentives this paper considers a set of commonly observed mergers whereby a restructured target (with improved managerial or technical capability) continues to supply the market. In contrast to the market‐concentrating merger literature it finds that trade barriers tend to encourage mergers, including potentially welfare‐reducing, tariff‐jumping mergers. Multilateral trade liberalization, however, encourages welfare‐improving mergers. Hence, and despite the skepticism of regulatory authorities towards the existence of cost synergies as a consequence of mergers, this paper suggests that in order to assess the impact of trade liberalization under the WTO on merger incentives, and consequently on prices, quantities, and welfare, accurate information on ex ante cost differences and the transferability of managerial and technical techniques is required.     

探析绿色壁垒对我国对外贸易影响

随着越来越多的国家加入世界贸易组织,贸易自由化进一步深入,为了维护自身的经济利益,保护本国市场,各国纷纷利用世界贸易组织的有关规定,制订贸易壁垒,实施变相的贸易保护,对当代世界贸易产生了广泛而深刻的影响.本文就绿色壁垒对我国外贸出口的影响及应对的措施进行了深入的探析.     

欧盟金融服务市场准入法律制度研究

欧盟金融服务市场准入的发展,是金融服务逐步自由化的代表。金融服务自由化必须以法律制度的完善为基础,法律制度的确立和运作应该与金融服务发展的实际相结合。欧盟的实践经验验证了这一点,其经验对中国加入WTO之后逐步完善规范金融服务市场准入的法律制度具有一定的借鉴价值。     

论多边环境协定与WTO的关系

随着全球环境问题的影响范围逐渐扩张,国际社会开始关注全球环境变迁,目前各种国际环境议题开始通过协商与谈判,制订国际公约加以规范以达成环境治理目标。而WTO以贸易自由化为主要目标,它与多边环境协定之间的竞合关系成为值得深入探讨的议题。文章通过分析WTO的环保立场、WTO有关多边环境协定的谈判内容及多哈回合谈判暂停对WTO贸易与环境谈判的影响阐述WTO与多边环境保护协定的关系。     

The Impact of Liberalizing Barriers to Foreign Direct Investment in Services: The Case of Russian Accession to the World Trade Organization

In this paper a computable general equilibrium model of the Russian economy is used to assess the impact of accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), which encompasses improved market access, Russian tariff reduction, and reduction of barriers against multinational service providers. It is assumed that foreign direct investment in business services is necessary for multinationals to compete well with Russian business services providers, but cross‐border service provision is also present. The model incorporates productivity effects in both goods and services markets endogenously, through a Dixit–Stiglitz framework. It is estimated that Russia will gain about 7.2% of the value of Russian consumption in the medium term from WTO accession and up to 24% in the long run. It is also estimated that the largest gains to Russia will derive from liberalization of barriers against multinational service providers. Piecemeal and systematic sensitivity analysis shows that the results are robust.     

PREFERENTIAL TRADE AGREEMENTS AND MULTILATERAL TARIFF COOPERATION*

Are preferential trade agreements (PTAs) building or stumbling blocks for multilateral trade liberalization? I address this question in an infinitely repeated tariff game between three countries engaged in intraindustry trade under oligopoly. The central result is that when countries are symmetric, a free trade agreement (FTA) undermines multilateral tariff cooperation by adversely affecting the cooperation incentive of the nonmember whereas a customs union (CU) does so via its effect on the cooperation incentives of members. However, when countries are asymmetric with respect to either market size or cost, there exist circumstances where PTAs facilitate multilateral tariff cooperation.     

Multilateral trade and export-led growth in the world economy: some post-war evidence

In this paper, we address an empirical question: is there evidence to substantiate the assumption that the post-war liberalization of world trade has actually led to a significant increase in the world GDP? In our attempt to answer that question, time series data in the Penn World Table 6.1 are aggregated across countries to obtain a measure of world trade and output, and the total number of GATT/WTO member countries is employed as an explanatory variable to account for the impact of multilateral trade agreements, such as the Kennedy Round, Tokyo Round, and the Uruguay Round, on the trade-growth nexus. We then examine the relationship between world trade and the post-war GDP per worker across the world through the multivariate cointegration and error correction modeling and the Granger causality test. The results suggest that, at the global level, the post-war liberalization of multilateral trade has promoted both GDP and trade activities. There is also evidence that supports the export-led growth hypothesis in the world economy.     

The WTO Agenda for the New Millennium

This paper examines the main challenges confronting the WTO and assesses the WTO's potential to address each of these issues in the near term. The immediate challenges include completing the integration of agriculture and textiles and clothing into the mainstream of the GATT, and improving rules for liberalizing trade in services. But many new issues have arisen during the 1990s. The paper assesses both the opportunities available to meet those challenges and the prospects for success in further market liberalization via a new round of multilateral trade negotiations. It concludes by drawing out implications of these developments for Australia.