The impact of trade costs on exports: An empirical modeling

Studies, which have discussed some of the important issues concerning the measurement of trade costs, have conceded that the literature is still in the early stages of understanding and measuring what the real costs are. It is in this context, decomposing trade costs into ‘natural’ costs, ‘behind the border’ costs, ‘explicit beyond the border’ costs, and ‘implicit beyond the border’ costs, this paper suggests a method to measure the impacts of these components on changes in exports between countries in the absence of complete information on all the components of trade costs in home and partner countries. Empirical measurement has been demonstrated using 1999 and 2004 trade data from Pakistan. The results show that Pakistan's export growth between 1999 and 2004 came mainly from the reduction in both ‘explicit and implicit beyond the border’ trade costs in partner countries.     

The export price index with the effect of variety and an empirical analysis

The standard international trade models predict that economic growth induces decreasing export prices. Korea has recorded sustainable economic and export growth, and its export prices have been deteriorating over the last decades. Unlike the standard assumption of one good per country, the new theoretical approach by Krugman [Krugman, P. (1980) ‘Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and Pattern of Trade’. American Economic Review 70, 950–959, Krugman, P. (1989) ‘Differences in income elasticities and trends in real exchange rates’. European Economic Review, 33, 1055–1085.], and Helpman and Krugman [Helpman, E. and Krugman, P. (1985), Market structure and foreign trade: increasing returns, imperfect competition, and international economy, The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.] takes into account varieties of goods produced in each country. And many studies suggest that traditional estimates without variety effect have been rather under-stated. Therefore this paper develops a proper modeling for quantifying the impact of export variety on an exact export price index. Throughout the period (1984–2000), the conventional export price index without variety effect leads to under-state Korea's export price by 89.3%. This paper shows that the fall in Korean export prices has been offset by the effect of export variety. This paper emphasizes the effect of export variety on international trade.     

Export performance of developing countries: Does landlockedness matter?

Landlockedness imposes additional costs on trade and reduces international competitiveness. This paper examines the determinants of export performance in developing countries, within a comparative perspective of landlocked developing countries (LLDCs) and non‐landlocked developing countries, by using a standard gravity modeling framework. The study covers data from 1995 to 2015. The results suggest that despite recent trade policy reforms, the overall export performance of LLDCs is lower than that of non‐landlocked developing countries due to the inherent additional trade costs associated with landlockedness. The conventional wisdom that export performance is aided by economic openness also applies to LLDCs, but distance‐related trade costs have a greater negative impact on exports from LLDCs than on other developing countries. The immediate trade policy challenge for LLDCs is therefore to create a more trade‐friendly environment by lowering tariffs, reforming exchange rates and entering into regional trade agreements.     

Promise and shortcomings of a green turn in recent policy responses to the “double crisis”

The paper analyses six international-scale responses to the financial and climate change ‘double crisis’ in order to: review how they define problems and solutions, analyse what underpins the policy choices revealed in these responses (the ‘green turn’), reflect on the implications of the proposed solutions in terms of sustainability and global environmental justice, and to suggest three elements for a paradigm shift towards an ‘alternative’ turn embedded in ecological economics theory. The analysis reveals that responses by leading international organisations continue to appeal to the precepts of neoclassical economy. We argue that from an ecological economics perspective, policy responses under the various labels of green economy, green growth, sustainable growth, green new deal, fall well short of what is needed to fight the environmental crisis and rising inequality across and within countries. The idea of justice and equity that underpins the mainstream approach seems inadequate in terms of sustaining our environmental base and global environmental justice. Based on this critical review, we propose an ‘alternative turn’, centred on three elements of a paradigm shift leading to a new economy where the environmental base and global environmental justice are at the centre of the discourse.     

Capital income taxation when inherited wealth is not observable

This paper extends the Atkinson-Stiglitz model of direct and indirect taxation to a dynamic setting with two unobservable characteristics: productive ability and inherited wealth. Bequests are motivated by the ‘joy of giving’. A child’s inheritance is a random variable with a probability distribution that depends on his parent’s investment in a ‘bequest technology’. Public borrowing is assumed and implies the modified golden rule. We study the optimal tax policy when two instruments are available: a non-linear (wage) income tax and a proportional tax on capital income. We show that the second instrument ought, in general, to be used but that the tax rate is not necessarily positive. However, a positive tax rate is more likely when there is a positive correlation between inherited wealth and innate ability.     

Endogenous trade bloc formation in an asymmetric world

This paper investigates how variations in endowments and the structure of preferences impact on the coalition formation decisions of asymmetric countries. There exist relatively few general results on the relationship between country characteristics and trade bloc formation. Here, new light is shed on this issue by systematically simulating bloc formation and by explicitly analysing the blocking behaviour of coalitions. A general equilibrium model of world trade is implemented with equilibrium coalition formation being modelled using the equilibrium concept of the core. It is found that global free trade is observed when all countries are similar. Customs unions tend to form between countries with ‘adjacent’ consumer preferences or with ‘adjacent’ endowments of their export commodity. Finally, in contrast to the existing literature but consistent with observed behaviour, it is found that free trade areas often Pareto dominate customs unions, provided consumer preferences differ sufficiently.     

Trade,transport costs and trade imbalances: An empirical examination of international markets and backhauls

The US trade deficit has been growing for over 25 years and has been accompanied by enlarging freight rate differentials. While traditional models of trade have ignored these gaps assuming symmetry across all bilateral trade costs, the specific linkages between trade imbalances and international transportation costs have remained unexplored. Given the current trade policies, the implications arising from the endogenous adjustment of bilateral transport costs to policy-induced changes in the US trade deficit are of particular importance. To break new ground on this issue, we develop and estimate a model of international trade and transportation that accounts for the effects of persistent trade imbalances. The theoretical results are supported by our empirical analysis and indicate that bilateral transport costs adjust to a country's trade imbalance. The implication is that a unilateral import policy, for example, will cause spillover effects into the bilaterally integrated export market. To illustrate, we use our empirical results to simulate the anticipated spillover effect from the Chinese ban on waste imports. We find that China's ban and the projected 1.5% rise in the US trade deficit will lead to not only a 0.77% reduction of transport costs charged on US exports to China but also a 0.34% increase in transport costs on US imports from China.     

Trade, technology transfer and national efficiency in developing countries

This paper simultaneously explores the determinants of the developing countries’ production frontier and these countries’ ‘efficiency’ in using the available resources and technology. In doing so it allows for the transfer of (industrial country) technology in determining the frontier and for international trade's influence on absorptive capacity and national efficiency levels. Stochastic frontier analysis is used to model the production frontier for 57 developing countries for the period 1970-1998, to measure cross-country and temporal differences in efficiency levels and to explain the differences in efficiency levels. The results indicate significant differences in efficiency levels across countries and regions and movement over time, and an important influence of trade and trade policy in raising output both through technology improvements embodied in imported capital goods and by inducing efficiency improvements.     

The origins of the concept of ‘foresight’ in science and technology: An insider's perspective

This article explores how the term ‘foresight’ originally came to be used in connection with science and technology by the author and SPRU colleagues in 1983. It analyses how the rationale for its use evolved over time, first providing a ‘catchy’ title for a study (‘Project Foresight’), and then a convenient shorthand for the focus of that study, before eventually coming to formally signify a new approach to looking systematically into the future of science and technology, an inclusive and wide-ranging process that differed appreciably from that of traditional ‘technology forecasting’. The paper reflects on the importance of concepts and terminology in the field of science policy research, providing examples of how an inappropriate term or phrase can damn the prospects of the research having an impact on policy, while a more politically astute use of terminology can greatly enhance the probability of making a significant impact. The paper also examines other early uses of the concept of ‘foresight’ in the United States and Canada at about the same time. In addition, it highlights the conceptual similarities between foresight and la prospective, a novel approach developed in France not just for looking into the future but also for shaping or even ‘constructing’ the future of our choice, an ambitious aspiration that it shares with foresight. This case-study on the origins and early evolution of ‘technology foresight’ illustrates the essential importance of terminology in differentiating key concepts in social sciences (where it sometimes gives rise to unfortunate priority disputes), and particularly in the case of policy research.     

Paving the Road to Export: Assessing the Trade Impact of Road Quality

Assessing the trade impacts of domestic transport costs is data demanding and analyses that examine the effects of road quality, a critical aspect in regional and public policy, practically do not exist in the international trade literature. The few studies available rely mostly on distance-based measures as proxies of transport costs which impede analyzing the trade effects of transport-infrastructure improvements. In this paper, we combine highly disaggregated records of export flows with detailed geo-referenced information of the Colombian transport network, including its road quality, as well as real measures of transport costs of shipping goods within the country to measure the trade impacts of improving road quality. We find that the trade effects of improvements in road quality are relatively small on average; however, there is considerable heterogeneity in the magnitude of the effects. We show that longer routes have larger shares of their roads in poor conditions; accordingly, the trade impacts of shipments originated in remote regions are found to be quite substantial.     

ANTIDUMPING,INTRA‐INDUSTRY TRADE,AND QUALITY REVERSALS

We examine an export game where two (home and foreign) firms produce vertically differentiated products. The foreign firm is more R&D efficient and is based in a larger and richer market. The unique (risk‐dominant) Nash equilibrium exhibits intra‐industry trade, and the foreign producer manufactures a higher‐quality product. When transport costs are low, unilateral dumping by the foreign firm arises; otherwise, reciprocal dumping occurs. For some parameters, a domestic antidumping policy leads to a quality reversal in the international market whereby the home firm becomes the quality leader. This policy is desirable for the implementing country, though world welfare decreases.     

Optimal environmental taxation and enforcement policy

We study the optimal environmental taxation and enforcement policy when (i) the regulator does not know the firms’ abatement costs, (ii) penalties for tax evasion are limited, and (iii) monitoring of pollution is costly. We show that the threat of being audited alter the usual firms’ incentives to over-estimate their abatement costs. In particular, depending on the firms’ abatement costs, the optimal policy may involve over or under-deterrence compared to the full information outcome. We then investigate the properties of a pollution standard. We show that this policy comes close to an environmental tax once the economic incentives of the accompanying enforcement policy are considered.     

Hormone beef, chlorinated chicken and international trade

We study international trade in innovative goods subject to uncertain consumer health effects. Such goods are often at the center of international trade disputes. We show that an interesting form of protectionism may arise because of scientific uncertainty. A free-riding effect is identified, implying more conservative behavior by countries. We also study the role of producers (lobbies) in providing valuable information, finding that the innovative lobby has an advantage in providing information as compared with the lobby producing the ‘traditional’ good. Moreover, lobbies disclose more information when the health effects are long lasting.     

Bidding for brains: Intellectual property rights and the international migration of knowledge workers

We introduce international mobility of knowledge workers into a model of Nash equilibrium IPR policy choice among countries. We show that governments have incentives to use IPRs in a bidding war for global talent, resulting in Nash equilibrium IPRs that can be too high, rather than too low, from a global welfare perspective. These incentives become stronger as developing countries grow in size and wealth, thus allowing them to prevent the ‘poaching’ of their ‘brains’ by larger, wealthier markets.     

Measuring China’s trade liberalization: A generalized measure of trade restrictiveness index

Neither simple average nor import-weighted average tariff indexes are ideal measures of tariff barriers. In this paper, we propose a generalized trade restrictiveness index (GTRI) that extends Feenstra’s (1995) tariff restrictiveness index (TRI) by relaxing the crucial assumption of a small open economy. We show that the GTRI can be measured using import tariffs, import shares, and the corresponding import and foreign export elasticities. We then apply the GTRI to examine how trade restrictiveness has evolved in China from 1997 to 2008, the period in which China entered the WTO. The GTRI indicates a higher level of protection than simple and import-weighted averages, but lower than the TRI. We further show a negative correlation between tariffs and product export supply elasticity, indicating that strategic trade policy was being pursued prior to China’s WTO accession. Finally, we calculate the welfare loss and terms-of-trade gain due to tariff protection. The overall tariff pass-through increases from around 28% to almost 47% because of the WTO.     

Sunk costs of exporting and the role of experience in international trade

This paper estimates the importance of destination‐specific sunk costs of exporting and investigates the role of firms' previous experience in international trade for the decision to export to a market. While destination‐specific sunk costs are important, firms' experience in international trade can help to overcome these costs more easily. In particular, import experience from a market is found to facilitate exporting to this country and export experience from other markets can increase the probability of exporting to a country. This latter effect turns out to be conditional on the characteristics and number of markets served by a firm.     

Utilitarianism and horizontal equity: The case for random taxation

This paper reports on the use of an algorithm to compute optimal policies in the areas of commodity taxation, international trade and public shadow pricing for a government which is interested in redistributing income but has limited powers of taxation. The algorithm is applied to selected LDC data using a highly simplified general equilibrium model. Some insight into the relationships between constraints on taxation and other areas of government policy is provided by analyzing models where domestic tax restrictions can make inefficient public production or tariffs on international trade desirable.     

Optimal fiscal policy in a world liquidity trap

We construct a model of the international transmission of ‘liquidity trap’ shocks, and examine the case for international coordination of fiscal policy to respond to the liquidity trap. Integrated financial markets tend to propagate liquidity traps. In a global environment, fiscal policy may be effective in raising GDP when the economy is stuck in a liquidity trap, but it does so in a ‘beggar thy neighbor’ fashion; when one economy is in a liquidity trap, the cross country spillover effect of fiscal policy is negative. We examine the welfare optimizing policy response to a liquidity trap when countries coordinate on fiscal policy. Fiscal policy may be an effective tool in responding to a liquidity trap, although it is never optimal to use fiscal expansion sufficiently to fully eliminate a downturn. Moreover, there is little case for coordinated global fiscal expansion. For the most part, the country worst hit by a liquidity trap shock should use its own policies to respond, without much help from foreign policies.     

Optimal fiscal policy in sunspot‐driven oligopolistic economies

Economies with oligopolistic markets are prone to inefficient sunspot fluctuations triggered by autonomous changes in firms equilibrium conjectures. A well‐designed taxation‐subsidization scheme can eliminate these fluctuations by coordinating firms in each sector on a single equilibrium, left unaffected. The optimal taxation scheme must select the number of active firms that makes the best trade‐off (in terms of consumer welfare) between the markup and the scale inefficiency distortions. Implementing such stabilization policy leads to significant welfare gains, attributable to an “efficient stabilization effect,” typically ignored in usual computations of the welfare costs of fluctuations.     

绿色壁垒对绍兴外贸出口的影响及政策建议

当前，绿色贸易壁垒在全球经济中运用得越来越广泛，对出口造成了巨大影响。本文通过对绿色壁垒绍兴外贸出口贸易方向和出口结构影响的分析，提出一些政策建议。