虚拟水贸易及其影响因素研究

由于水资源的分布不均和大量消耗,水资源短缺成为很多国家和地区经济社会发展的约束。虚拟水贸易作为一种解决水资源短缺的方式被提出,成为水资源研究领域的热点。以农产品的国际贸易为主体的虚拟水国际贸易也不仅仅涉及水资源的平衡问题,还涉及到很多政治、经济等因素。本文从政治、经济、社会、生态四方面对虚拟水贸易的影响因素进行分析,从而对虚拟水贸易展开研究。     

虚拟水贸易在解决中国和全球水危机中的作用

水资源短缺已经威胁到中国一些地区的社会经济发展和生态安全,经济的发展将会进一步加剧水危机。近年来,农产品贸易中的虚拟水引起了全世界的关注,被看做是一种缓解水资源压力的手段。本文利用虚拟水的概念和方法分析了中国1996～2001年间的粮食贸易,发现:这些年间中国通过粮食贸易净进口了3.28×1 010m3虚拟水;通过粮食进口,中国相当于节省了1.86×1011 m3的水资源;中国的粮食贸易由于基本符合水利用效率的比较优势,因而给全球节省了1.01×1011m3的水资源。中国通过虚拟水贸易不能完全解决国内水危机问题,但是可以节省国内水资源,缓解农业区的水危机状况,提高全球水资源利用效率。尽管当前中国采取虚拟水进口策略会遇到很多问题,但是虚拟水的概念给我们理解粮食贸易和调水工程提供了全新的角度。     

中国区域间虚拟水贸易影响因素分析

虚拟水、虚拟水贸易概念的提出引起了国际普遍关注。虚拟水贸易是一个复杂实物的综合体,涉及经济、社会和生态等多方面因素。从经济、社会、生态三方面对中国推行区域间虚拟水贸易的影响因素进行分析,为相关部门的决策提供理论支撑。     

我国主要农产品虚拟水贸易风险等级评估

虚拟水贸易可以有效缓解水资源压力并保障粮食安全,但目前我国主要农产品虚拟水贸易存在一定风险。应用投影寻踪—信息扩散理论模型定量分析我国区际间主要农产品虚拟水贸易风险的等级及发生概率,结果表明:交通因素、人口因素和自然因素对虚拟水贸易风险的影响较大,这与传统虚拟水战略中水资源是虚拟水贸易的主导因素相悖;我国大部分地区虚拟水贸易风险处于较不安全(Ⅱ)和临界安全(Ⅲ)状态,少数地区属于极不安全(Ⅰ)的状态,等级Ⅳ和等级Ⅴ没有对应的地区分布;我国虚拟水贸易风险等级值为Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ、Ⅳ和Ⅴ的概率分别为1.000、0.792、0.592、0.394和0.198,说明我国粮食和水资源安全出现高风险的几率较大,极易出现粮食危机和水危机,评价结果与我国国情基本相符。     

虚拟水：国际水资源管理与启示

虚拟水研究是国际水资源管理的重要课题,虚拟水贸易对国家水资源战略、粮食安全战略有着重要影响,水足迹逐渐成为各国制定水资源管理政策的参考标准。论文梳理了国外研究成果,从概念内涵、发展战略、水资源管理等维度阐述虚拟水理论与实践研究价值。分析发现:第一,虚拟水概念获得学术界认可但仍存在争议,理论研究急需拓展;第二,虚拟水能够影响国家水安全和粮食安全战略,其应用性和适应性仍有待深入研究;第三,理论上虚拟水符合当前水管理目标和内容,但实践中其应用效果存在争议;第四,水足迹是虚拟水概念的延伸,其研究成果成为当前虚拟水研究主流,在水管理层面上已成为各国水资源管理的重要评价指标。     

基于完全信息博弈原理的虚拟水战略研究

虚拟水战略是平衡区域水资源禀赋差异、提高水资源利用效率、保障水资源安全的新理念和管理手段。但在区域贸易实践中,如何将虚拟水战略与经济发展需求有效结合,实现经济利益与虚拟水的科学调度、水资源的合理利用相协调,构建新型水资源经济模式,保证虚拟水战略的落实,还有待研究。本研究围绕区域制定经济发展与贸易模式的决策过程中对虚拟水战略的接受程度,构建了区域间关于虚拟水战略的完全信息的博弈模型,探索其中的收益与决策规律。结果表明:各区域均选择符合虚拟水战略的发展模式,是博弈的总体最优结果,要实现这一均衡,需要在政策与管理措施方面加大对实行虚拟水战略的扶持干预力度,设置合理的激励、提高用水效率、并促进各区域建立长期的贸易合作关系。     

我国粮食的虚拟水贸易探究

水足迹和虚拟水是当前国际水资源领域研究的热点问题,被称为当前测度人类活动水资源系统环境的最好指标。文章通过对1992年至2008年,我国粮食五种代表作物的虚拟水贸易作简要的叙述和分析,从虚拟水贸易的角度用比较优势的理论探讨我国的粮食贸易。     

虚拟水贸易及其作用

水安全和粮食安全是我国社会发展的关键,而虚拟水同时连接着粮食和水资源.本文应用机会成本和比较优势理论阐述虚拟水贸易,同时详细阐述了粮食安全与国家安全、经济增长、生活质量的提高之间的关系.在此基础上.提出了我国在进行虚拟水贸易时应考虑虚拟土地、虚拟技术、虚拟劳动力以及虚拟资金等因素.本文对国家多目标的评价、国际交易利润的计算和有限资源的使用提供了有效的理论依据.     

虚拟水、虚拟水贸易理论研究综述

相对于水价和用水技术能够提高水资源在当地的配置效率,虚拟水贸易则可以提高水资源在全球范围内的配置效率。虚拟水从水资源生产率较高的国家流向水资源较低的国家意味着在全球层次上水资源的节约。因此,国家之间、洲际之间虚拟水贸易被看作提高全球水资源利用效率和缺水国家获得水安全的一个有力工具。     

水资源对太原市城市发展的影响及对策

太原市是我国水资源非常匮乏的城市之一。随着经济的发展和人口的增长 ,以及水环境污染严重 ,可以利用的水资源日趋短缺 ,水资源短缺已成为制约太原市发展和影响人们生活的一项重要因素。本文就水资源短缺对太原市经济发展 ,生态景观改善和城市居民生活的影响进行了论述 ,并提出了“开源与节流”对策。     

Are virtual water “flows” in Spanish grain trade consistent with relative water scarcity?

Virtual water adds a new dimension to international trade, and brings along a new perspective about water scarcity and water resource management. Most virtual water literature has focused on quantifying virtual water “flows” and on its application to ensure water and food security. Nevertheless, the analysis of the potential gains from international trade, at least from a water resources perspective, needs to take into account both spatial and temporal variations of blue (groundwater and stream flow) and green (soil moisture) water, as well as the socioeconomic and policy conditions. This paper evaluates whether Spanish international trade with grains is consistent with relative water scarcity. For this purpose, the study estimates the volume and economic value of virtual water “flow” through international grain trade for the period 1997-2005, which includes 3 years with different rainfall levels. The calculations show that Spain is a net virtual water “importer” through international grain trade. The volume of net virtual water “imports” amounts to 3420, 4383 and 8415 million m³ in wet (1997), medium (1999) and dry (2005) years, respectively. Valuing blue water at its shadow price or scarcity value, blue water “exports” oscillate between 0.7 and 34.2 million Euros for a wet and dry year, respectively. Overall, grain trade is apparently consistent with relative water scarcity as net imports increase in dry years. However, the evolution of grain exports, expressed as a variation in quantity and volume, does not match the variations in resource scarcity. A disaggregated crop analysis reveals that there are other factors, such as quality, product specialization or the demand for a standardized product, which also influence trade decisions and are not included in the notion of virtual water. These facts, among others, can therefore create potential distortions in the application of virtual water to the analysis of specific trade patterns. Nevertheless, from a water resources perspective, virtual water can bring important insights across countries for improving water and land management globally, fostering adaptation strategies to climate change and to transboundary resource management.     

International trade of scarce water

Recent analyses of the evolution and structure of trade in virtual water revealed that the number of trade connections and volume of virtual water trade have more than doubled over the past two decades, and that developed countries increasingly import water embodied in goods from the rest of the world to alleviate pressure on domestic water resources. At the same time, as demand continues to increase and climate change threatens to alter hydrological cycles, water scarcity is a growing problem. Does research into virtual water trade need to consider water scarcity and differentiate flows out of water-scarce regions from flows out of water-abundant regions? Previous studies sum and compare virtual water volumes originating in countries experiencing vastly different degrees of water scarcity. We therefore incorporate water scarcity into an assessment of global virtual water flows. We use input–output analysis to include indirect virtual water flows. We find that the structure of global virtual water networks changes significantly after adjusting for water scarcity.     

基于投入产出法的浙江省虚拟水贸易实证分析

基于"虚拟水"理论,利用2005年和2007年浙江省的投入产出表(延长表)和各产业部门的用水数据,采用投入产出分析法构建价值型-实物型水资源投入产出模型,计算并分析了2005年和2007年浙江省各产业部门的虚拟水贸易量。结果表明:浙江省通过商品贸易向他省和国外输出的虚拟水主要集中在纺织、缝纫及皮革产品制造业和机械设备制造业;通过商品贸易向省内输入的虚拟水集中在农业、化学工业、金属冶炼及加工制造业、采掘业和食品制造和烟草加工业;从虚拟水贸易结构来看,农业和重工业为净输入虚拟水贸易行业,轻工业为净输出虚拟水贸易行业。     

A study of virtual land trade between China and ASEAN based on material flow analysis model

In this paper,based on the material flux analysis model（MFA） and its corresponding theories and algorithms of ＂virtual land＂ virtual land contents of five primary agricultural products are calculated and＂Virtual land trade＂hidden in those imported and exported products are also obtained through analyzing the primary agricultural product trade between China and ASEAN. In the process of calculationl following the thought of Changing agricultural products to ＂Virtual land trade＂land content, trade condition and spatiai distribution of agricultural products Were integratedly considered. indicate that China exported 73;057 km^2 of virtual land area to ASEAN by tea, vegetables; maize and grain, ASEAN exported： 57.332 km^2 to China by natural rubber from 2002 to 2005. It obvious; that china has lost 15,725 km^2 arable land through agricultural product trade, Additionally, in order to process： of calculation Virtual land trade, Thailand taker as an example to analyze its international trade of rice and Wheat from 1991 to 2005 and Calculate their ＂Virtual land trade＂ 2001 through 2005. According to and calculation, it is not difficult to conclude that ＂Virtual land trade＂ very important and could be used for China to guide agricultural export or import Structure and maintain Sustainable use of land resources.     

我国高风险进口产品的现状及分析——可利用固体废物进口现状及管制措施研究

自从20世纪90年代以来,我国开始进口国外的资源性固体废物,一时间"洋垃圾"伴随着资源性固体废物大量进入境内,给我国的经济安全、环境安全及人民健康带来了巨大的危害。因此,如何有效地利用国外资源性固体废物发展我国经济,弥补我国资源短缺的状况,同时杜绝无法再生利用的"洋垃圾"进入境内,对我国现阶段创建和谐社会,实现可持续发展,不仅具有理论意义,更具有积极的现实意义。     

Managing the Waters of Baՙth Country: The Politics of Water Scarcity in Syria

The Syrian government and international development agencies commonly present water scarcity as being one of Syria's main development challenges. This paper draws on a set of international reports, written in consultation with Syrian officials, to reveal the politics of this scarcity. I show how water scarcity is constructed and ordered through spatial representations. Rather than accepting the common explanation that scarcity is the result of population pressure, I argue that Syria's water scarcity is a consequence of the ruling Ba?th party's continuous promotion of water-intensive agriculture. This support for the agricultural sector, motivated in part by a desire for food self-sufficiency and growth through an expansion in irrigated agriculture, is linked to the rural roots of the Ba?th party and the influential Peasants Union. In revealing these key national politics, this analysis highlights how geopolitical studies of water in the Middle East must move beyond a focus on inter-state dynamics and pay critical attention to the politics operating around water distribution and use on a range of scalar levels.     

Assessment of regional trade and virtual water flows in China

The success of China's economic development has left deep marks on resource availability and quality. Some regions in China are relatively poor with regards to water resources. This problem is exacerbated by economic growth. Flourishing trade activities on both domestic and international levels have resulted in significant amounts of water withdrawal and water pollution. Hence the goal of this paper is to evaluate the current inter-regional trade structure and its effects on water consumption and pollution via ‘virtual water flows’. Virtual water is the water embedded in products and used in the whole production chain, and that is traded between regions or exported to other countries. For this assessment of trade flows and effects on water resources, we have developed an extended regional input-output model for eight hydro-economic regions in China to account for virtual water flows between North and South China. The findings show that the current trade structure in China is not very favorable with regards to water resource allocation and efficiency. North China as a water scarce region virtually exports about 5% of its total available freshwater resources while accepting large amounts of wastewater for other regions' consumption. By contrast, South China a region with abundant water resources is virtually importing water from other regions while their imports are creating waste water polluting other regions' hydro-ecosystems.     

水资源使用权交易的费用效果分析

我国水资源过度开采、浪费、污染等现象严重,面对日益严峻的水资源形势,水资源短缺将成为全球未来发展面临的最主要问题之一。本文在可持续发展战略的指导下,明确水权的涵义,进行水资源使用权交易的费用效益分析,指出水资源使用权的交易有利于提高水资源利用效率和加快节水型社会的建设,实现水资源的可持续发展,对我国水权交易市场的建立和水使用权交易具有一定的理论和实践指导意义。     

我国新时期贸易竞争优势转型战略分析

目前,我国现有的经济结构等还不能适应经济增长的要求,因此必须抓住经济结构和消费结构剧烈变革的发展机遇期,及时调整贸易发展战略,充分发挥外贸的导向和激励功能,立足于我国人力资源的比较优势,调整贸易结构,引导和促进经济增长方式转变,推动我国贸易竞争优势的转型和升级。