Region,Regionness and Regionalism in Latin America: Towards a New Synthesis

Latin American regional governance today represents a conglomerate of commercial, political and trans-societal welfarist integration projects. In this overlapping and sometimes conflicting scenario what Latin Americanness should mean, and how integration projects should respond to current challenges of global political economy are being redefined. The focus of the paper is twofold: to better understand current regional transformations and to discuss what new developments mean for how we theorise non-European regionalism. Looking at the Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas and the Union of South American Nations we ask: How are we to understand regional agreements that are grounded in different systems of rules, alternative ideas and motivations that contest ‘open regionalism’? We argue that Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) and Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas (ALBA) represent different pathways to regional building, creating foundations for post-hegemonic and post-trade regional governance. We thus challenge New Regionalist approaches that assume regionalism as taking place within and modelled by neoliberal economics, establishing the debate around ‘old’ vs. ‘new’ regionalism. As these categories are limited in grasping the full meaning and implications of post-hegemonic regional orders, we discuss UNASUR and ALBA as ‘arenas for action’ to understand divergent practices, outcomes and types of regionness emerging in alternative regional spaces in South America.     

以发展的新思维促进农村贫困治理

在贫困治理进入后攻坚时期,适当调整扶贫策略,将传统的单纯依靠经济增长治理贫困的模式逐步转向具有发展理念、融合社会政策与经济政策为一体的资产社会政策模式,早已成为时代要求。具有资产建设性质的社会保障个人资产账户,能够帮助贫困群体进行资产积累,进而在理财、教育、住房、医疗、养老等领域有着无可比拟的综合功能,因此在当前及未来的贫困治理工作中应有重要担当。     

Primary education and fertility rates

Unified growth theory advances that the transition from a Malthusian regime to sustained economic growth is characterized by technological progress and, amongst other things, by an increase in demand for human capital which in turn creates incentives for lower fertility rates. Bearing that in mind, I ask the question: has southern Africa escaped the Malthusian stagnation? Specifically, I study whether primary school completion rates have played any role in total fertility rates in all countries of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) during the 1980–2009 period. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the results, based on dynamic panel time‐series methods, suggest that primary education is associated with lower fertility in the SADC, or that the community is already trading‐off quantity for quality of children. Although I do not claim causality, overall the results are significant because, in accordance with unified growth theory, they suggest that the SADC is experiencing its own transition from the Malthusian stagnation epoch into sustained growth, or that the SADC is going through its own post‐Malthusian regime.     

The unbearable tightness of being in a monetary union: Fiscal restrictions and regional stability

We study how constrained fiscal policy can affect macroeconomic stability and welfare in a two-region model of a monetary union with sticky prices and distortionary taxation. Both government spending and taxes can be used to stabilize regional variables; however, the best welfare outcome is obtained under some tax variability and constant regional inflations. We use a variety of rules to characterize constrained fiscal policy and find that strict fiscal rules coupled with a monetary policy that targets union-wide inflation result in regional inflation stability and the welfare costs of such rules are not as unbearable as one would expect. Fiscal authorities can enhance welfare by targeting the regional output gap, while targeting regional inflation is less successful since inflation stability is guaranteed by the central bank.     

Sustainability,Optimality, and Development Policy

Considering sustainability a matter of intergenerational welfare equity, this paper examines whether an optimal development path can also be sustainable. It argues that the general “zero‐net‐aggregate‐investment” condition for an optimal development path to be sustainable in the sense of the maximin criterion of intergenerational justice is too demanding to be practical, especially in the context of developing countries. It further argues that while the maximin criterion of sustainability may be appealing to the rich advanced industrial countries, for the poor developing countries it implies equalization of poverty across generations, and as such is too costly a moral obligation to be acceptable. The paper suggests that a compromise development policy that follows the optimal growth approach but adopts certain measures to mitigate both the intergenerational and intragenerational welfare inequalities may be more appropriate for these countries. Some of the principal elements of such a policy are highlighted.     

Microeconomic consequences and macroeconomic causes of foreign direct investment in southern African economies

The authors use a new data set on firms in 13 countries of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and comparators from other regions to identify the benefits and determinants of FDI in this region. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has facilitated local development in the SADC. Foreign-owned firms perform better than domestic firms, are larger, and locate in richer and better-governed countries and in countries with more competitive financial intermediaries. They are also more likely to export than domestic firms and evidence suggests that they might have positive spillover effects on domestic firms. Based on a standard empirical model, the SADC is attracting the inward FDI per capita that the region's level of income would predict. But this means that there are less capital inflows per capita to the region than there are to wealthier parts of the developing world. Moreover, the SADC is attracting less FDI than comparators for reasons that are possibly more fundamental than current income, namely, countries’ past growth record, demographic structure and the quality of physical infrastructure. Interestingly, inward FDI is less sensitive to variation in income within the SADC than in other parts of the world, but is more responsive to changes in country's openness to trade.     

Non-linearities in inflation–growth nexus in the SADC region: A panel smooth transition regression approach

The main objective of central banks around the world is the achievement and maintenance of price stability, which actually creates an environment conducive for faster economic growth. Therefore, it is important for policy makers to understand the relationship between inflation and economic growth in order to make sound policies. If inflation is detrimental to economic growth, then policy makers should aim for low rates of inflation. This leads to a question; how low should the inflation rate be? Previous research in the non-linearities of the inflation–growth relationship has found that a positive relationship exists when the inflation rate is low and a negative relationship when the inflation rate is high. This implies the existence of a threshold level of inflation at which the sign switches. In this paper we use panel data for the period 1980–2008 to examine the inflation–growth nexus in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region and to endogenously determine the threshold level of inflation. To deal with problems of endogeneity and heterogeneity, the paper uses the Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) method developed by González et al. (2005) to examine the non-linearities in the inflation–growth nexus. This technique further estimates the smoothness of the transition from a low inflation to a high inflation regime. The findings reveal a threshold level of 18.9%, above which inflation is detrimental to economic growth in the SADC region.     

Nonlinear approaches in testing PPP: Evidence from Southern African development community

In this paper two nonlinearity tests are employed: the nonparametric test developed by Brock, Dechert and Scheinkman — known as the BDS test and the Fourier stationarity test. The BDS non-linearity test detects whether the independent and identically distribute (iid) assumption of the time series used in the analysis holds true or not while the Fourier approximation mimics a wide variety of breaks and other types of nonlinearities. Both tests confirm the non-linear nature of real exchange series in the Southern African Development Community (SADC). The result from the Fourier stationary test further provides strong evidence of an optimal currency area (OCA) among the 11 SADC countries included in this study.     

关于区域软实力的研究

从区域合作的本质上看,区域合作不仅仅是追求经济的发展,也是为了建设＂一个‘好的治理’体系,这个体系应该具备合法性、透明性、责任性、法治、回应的基本要素。＂这＂五个基本要素＂为完善有关区域合作的研究指出了一个基本方向。本文研究的是如何构建、提升区域软实力以促使区域合作更为健康、持久的进行。具体而言,就是研究通过文化、社会政策及其工具、价值观等非物质要素的构建,不断增强区域合作公信力、社会凝聚力、特色文化的感召力、人才资源的创造力,充分发挥其对社会经济运作系统的协调、扩张和倍增效应,从而提高区域竞争力。本文的基本论点是构建区域软实力可使区域合作持久的进行,促进区域内社会经济均衡协调发展,提升区域认同感和区域内居民的福祉。     

SOCIALLY IMPROVING TAX REFORMS*

This article proposes graphical methods to determine whether commodity tax changes are “socially improving,” in the sense of improving social welfare or decreasing poverty for large classes of social welfare and poverty indices. It also shows how estimators of critical poverty lines and economic efficiency ratios can be used to characterize socially improving tax reforms. The methodology is illustrated using Mexican data.     

Globalization,socio-institutional factors and North–South knowledge diffusion: Role of India and China as Southern growth progenitors

Nexus between income inequality and technology capture is explored in a global CGE model to explore the ricochet effect of technology transmission and its capture. In particular, the model shows that exogenous technology shock from developed North, vehicled via trade, transmits to developing Souths and induces productivity growth. This spillover capture, aided by human capital based adoptive capability, better governance and institution, causes increase in income and welfare and subsequently, leads to decline in income inequality. Dynamism of Southern Engines of Growth – India and China – caused them to emerge as ‘core’ South. Thus, triangular innovation diffusion between dynamic and peripheral South is also simulated to show how the backward or peripheral South could catch up via South–South Cooperation in a declining North–South trends in trade. This accrual of benefits could lead to sustained productivity growth and consequential relief of incidence of poverty in low-income countries.     

从贫困到社会排斥：理论演进与政策构想

从贫困到社会排斥,体现着社会的进步和发展。任何一个现代化的国家,均不会轻易承认贫困问题的存在。贫困的概念逐渐被另一个词语社会排斥所代替,同时也赋予了广泛的内涵,已经成为福利国家新的思维方式。社会排斥的过程是动态的。是一个历史的过程。社会排斥不仅仅是单位和个体的因素,既有的政策失败及不足也很容易产生排挤。社会排斥的原因外源上来自于全球化带来的进步与贫困,内因则是福利国家的失灵和社会的变迁,新古典经济理论和泛市场化基本教义也产生了重要影响。在此基础上提出了反社会排斥的政策构想,政府应实施积极地干预,在经济上积极实施就业政策,政治上保障公民权利,以及动员社区和地方参与都有利于抗衡社会排斥所带来的不利影响。     

环境公共治理、区域森林资源管护与本地居民福利——基于中国省际数据与GLMMs模型的经验研究

本文基于中国可获得数据与广义线性混合效应模型,通过经验研究发现,区域森林资源对本地居民的福利具有较为重要的影响,地方政府应将环境公共治理政策纳入到政府目标函数中,地方环境公共治理与国家或全球范围内的相关政策目标具有一定的兼容性和一致性,需要构建一种以森林资源管护为子目标的公共治理绩效评估机制,以推进这一政府行政职能当代转型的可实施性与可观测性。     

URBAN POVERTY IN CHINA AND ITS CONTRIBUTING FACTORS, 1986–2000

Food price increases and the introduction of radical social welfare and enterprise reforms during the 1990s generated significant changes in the lives of urban households in China. During this period urban poverty increased considerably. This paper uses household level data from 1986 to 2000 to examine what determines whether households fall below the poverty line over this period and investigates how the impact of these determinants has changed through time. We find that large households and households with more nonworking members are more likely to be poor, suggesting that perhaps the change from the old implicit price subsidies, based on household size, to an explicit income subsidy, based on employment, has worsened the position of large families. Further investigation into regional poverty variation indicates that over the 1986–93 period food price increases were also a major contributing factor. Between 1994 and 2000 the worsening of the economic situation of state sector employees contributed to the poverty increase.     

Woodsy the optimal owl: Environmental campaigns, norms, and implications for public goods policy

Norms regarding private provision of a public good (e.g. cutting down on energy use, not littering) can affect the marginal gains from contributing to a public good and therefore people's decisions about contributing to the public good. A model is proposed in which norms of private contributions to a public good can be influenced by public policy, and these norms affect people's self-image, which derives from a comparison of one's own contribution with the norm contribution. In this context, we examine the conditions under which private contributions to a public good are efficient, and the conditions under which policy affecting these norms improves social welfare. We find that (1) a benevolent social planner who fails to account for private provision norms will underprovide the public good, and (2) public policy that attempts to raise the norm contribution of private provision can increase social welfare if the effect of raising the norm does not have an extreme negative effect - either extremely small or extremely large - on peoples' self-image.     

TIME LIMITS ON WELFARE RECEIPT

Among the changes in U.S. poverty policy coming about from the end of "welfare as we knew it" has been an imposition of time limits on the receipt of federal welfare funds. Yet little is known about the impact this restriction will have. This paper examines welfare dynamics under Aid to Families with Dependent Children to provide a sense of magnitude of the number of families that would have been at risk of exhausting their eligibility for federal funds in the past. In addition, simulation models are employed to assess whether these results are sensitive to changes in key variables, some of which are within the grasp of policy makers, others of which are not. (JEL 13, J1)     

The anatomy of fragile states in Sub‐Saharan Africa: Understanding the interrelationship between fragility and indicators of wellbeing

According to most classifications, Sub‐Saharan Africa is the region of the world with the highest presence of fragile states. In this paper we examine the relationship between fragility and poverty, suggesting that countries may become trapped in a vicious circle of fragility and low levels of wellbeing. We consider fragility as a continuum and begin by reviewing available measures. These show the high presence of fragility in Sub‐Saharan Africa and allow the more fragile countries to be identified. There is seen to be a strong association between fragility, poor growth performance, and lower wellbeing in Sub‐Saharan Africa. Building on the strong evidence for the two‐way relationship between economic growth and poverty, we present an analysis of how the vicious circle linking poorer welfare outcomes and fragility may be able to be broken. We argue that building successful institutions is key here, and this can be enabled by specific policy interventions that are both poverty reducing and productive.     

资产建设理论视阈下农村贫困救助政策的启示

以资产为基础的社会政策是对穷人的福利政策方向的一个基本改变。对个人发展账户进行分析,将"资产建设"这个新理念引入我国农村贫困救助政策,比较两种以资产为基础的贫困救助政策:个人发展账户和村级互助基金,发现:为贫困者设立个人账户并建立村级互助资金,是适合我国国情的资产政策。     

"送猪崽"与"折现金":我国产业精准扶贫的路径分析与政策模拟研究

产业扶贫旨在将贫困户的生产活动纳入社会产业大循环,因此其一直是全世界扶贫工作的重要方式和主要目标之一.我国产业精准扶贫出现了两条新路径:一是GTP路径,即向贫困户送猪崽、鸡苗和良种等资本,直接将贫困户的生产纳入当地的产业体系;二是GSP路径,即将扶贫资金折合现金并由贫困户自己决定投资项目和选择产业.文章构建了包括贫困户和非贫困户的微观主体行为模型以及基于农村公平和效率的农村福利模型,分别研究了这两条新路径上贫困户福利和农村福利的动态演变过程,然后使用系统动力学模型进行了政策模拟,拟探索出我国产业精准扶贫的最优路径及其政策支持空间.结果显示:在第3~4年的时间内,GSP路径要优于GTP,但是超过4年,GTP路径上的贫困户福利和农村福利就会累进性超过GSP.而且,在GTP路径上的时间越长,扶贫效果就越好.在中长期,提高贫困户的技术水平,增加贫困户的初始资本额是进一步提高GTP路径上贫困户福利和农村福利水平的重要环节.文章的结论对于提高我国精准扶贫的理论自信,进一步完善我国产业精准扶贫政策体系具有一定的启示.     

Fiscal federalism and lobbying

Which government functions should be decentralized (resp. centralized) once lobbying behavior is taken into account? We find that the answer largely depends on how the interests of the regional lobbies are positioned with respect to the function to be decentralized (resp. centralized). When regional lobbies have conflicting interests, then lobbying is less damaging for social welfare under centralization than under decentralization. On the contrary, when regional lobbies have aligned interests, then lobbying is less damaging for social welfare under decentralization, provided that policy spillovers on the non-organized groups are not too strong.