A grey dynamic model for the evaluation of regional sustainable development and its empirical study

Currently, traditional development issues, such as economic stagnation, as well as new challenges like environmental degradation and globalization, need attention. Sustainable development, including economic, environmental, and social elements, is a main goal of decision-makers. The key to sustainable decision-making is to evaluate and forecast the status quo of sustainable development. Policy makers need a tool based on scientific information to forecast the effects of future actions on sustainability and make policies for sustainable development. This paper analyzes the relation of the economy, environment and social welfare by the grey dynamic model. The proposed method uses time series and basic indicators of ecological system, including economic, environmental and social sub-systems. It is applied to Heilongjiang Province and Jiangsu Province. The results have proved different status quo of sustainable development in these two regions, and suggestions are proposed, such as optimization of industrial structure and eco-industrial development. The conclusion is that there is no unique sustainable path, and accordingly, policy makers should choose different criteria and strategies to make efficient sustainable decisions for each region.     

Assessment of urban sustainable development using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation

1. Introduction In 1987, World Commission on Environment and Development explained the concept of sustainable development for the first time in the report Our Com- mon Future, which has reached a wide agreement. “Sustainable development seeks to meet the needs and aspirations of the present without compromis- ing the ability to meet those of the future”. In other words, it refers to the harmonious development of economy, society, resources and environment, which are an inseparable system.…     

A grey decision and prediction model for investment in the core competitiveness of product development

Because enterprises do not disclose their internal specific cost information to the public and, moreover, every firm has its own product character and financial constitutions, it is difficult to offer fixed guidelines for investment decisions. Thus, an enterprise may be uncertain when required to choose the most promising set of possible investments.The goal of this research is to use a grey relation analysis and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to probe the core product development and competitiveness of an enterprise from limited data and, furthermore, by constructing the grey model, GM(1,1), to validate the feasibility of this assessment of the core competitiveness and investment strategy. In this study, a precision mechanical manufacturer is taken as an example, and the forecast estimate from this method is compared to those of a linear regression and the actual values to demonstrate the feasibility of applying this methodology to investment decision making, hence, demonstrating the value of this research.     

Quantitative evaluation of sustainable development based on ecological footprint method: a case study of Tianjin

Since the concept of sustainable development emerged in the late 1980s, more and more countries and regions have been utilizing sustainable development as their developing strategy. But decades have passed without any effective methods available to quantitatively assess sustainable development, Since the ecological footprint evaluation method initiated in 1992, it has become popular in quantitative assessment of sustainable development because of its convenience, easy-understanding, and reliability. As one of the biggest coastal cities in north China and the economic center of the Bohai Coastal Region, Tianjin's gross domestic product (GDP) was 369.762 billion yuan in 2005, accounting for 2.0% of the whole nation's GDP The paper analyzes Tianjin's development with the ecological footprint method, and the results show that Tianjin's ecological footprint and biocapacity in 2005 were 2. 507gha/cap and 0.276gha/cap respectively. The ecological deficit was 2.230gha/cap. And from 1980 to 2005, Tianjin's ecological deficit per 104 yuan GDP decreased; while per capita ecological deficit has been tending to increase rapidly in recent years. All these results demonstrate that Tianjin is in a state of unsustainable development.     

Foresight: A major tool in tackling sustainable development

For many decades, the concept of sustainability has been highly successful in public policies and even in the business world.¹ Nowadays, all initiatives must be sustainable and are primarily assessed on that criterion. However, the efforts made to construct specific methods dedicated to building sustainable strategies seem rather weak. Futurists themselves underestimate the relationship between sustainable development and foresight, even if they are talking about sustainable planning.² They remain generally unaware that foresight could be a major tool in tackling sustainability as well as one of the best methods of preparing sustainable strategies and policies.Indeed, one of the biggest problems in sustainability approaches is the simplistic way used to define the concept, for instance, by using only the very first part of the 1987 the Bruntland report Our Common Future and by limiting the fields of activity on sustainability to the three pillars of the OECD model: economy, social questions, environment.At the Copenhagen United Nations Climate Change Conference (December 2009), it seemed forgotten that sustainability is already an old issue in which futurists were heavily involved at the time of the United Nations Stockholm Environment Conference (1972), in the Limits to Growth Report, published by the Club of Rome (1972)³ and in the OECD Interfutures Foresight, spurred on by Jacques Lesourne (1978).⁴Since that time (forty years ago!) researchers and consultants have learned how to deal with the concept of sustainability, how to analyze it as an ultimate aim for society as a whole as well as a complex object that needs to be approached with adequate methods such as systemic analysis.As Christian Stoffaës said, the aim of foresight is sustainable development in a changing world. As a result, the ultimate aim of strategic foresight appears to be clear: it is sustainability. This article highlights that fundamental relationship as we see it today.⁵     

Natural capital and quality of life: a model for evaluating the sustainability of alternative regional development paths

Natural capital contributes to the quality of life of a region in two complementary ways: first, by directly providing environmental services that cannot be imported, and second, by supplying the natural resources that, through a human controlled production process, become valuable to humans. The evolution of the combination of these two components of the quality of life determines the path of development a region takes. Environmental services also determine the ability of natural capital to regenerate itself. Ecosystems and other components of the regional natural capital produce environmental services that provide life-support functions necessary for natural capital reproduction. The destruction of this critical natural capital impairs the internal sources of improvement of the quality of life of a region, leading to a non-sustainable path of development. This article describes a model of the relationship between natural capital and quality of life that provides a stricter definition of sustainable development through explicit characterization and classification of natural capital according to its ability to produce life-supporting environmental services, by its substitutability, and by its possible reconstruction. Application of this model then shows that there are 51 possible regional development paths, only 32 of which are sustainable and only 14 of which are sustainable while also providing improvements in quality of life. Only six of these 14 sustainable development paths are attained with economic growth, however, while the other eight paths increase quality of life by increasing the production of environmental services. The model could help in the development of institutional interventions that would promote regional development paths that are sustainable.     

A model of deep ecotourism development and its empirical study

Ecotourism requires the harmony of all factors involved in tourism system for a multilateral benefit. Based on such cognition, a concept of deep ecotourism development is put forward which includes two connotations： on the one hand, it should give prominence to the display of the eco-culture of the tourist destination and tourists＇ eco-experience, in which way the development behavior on the tourist destination and the tourists＇ behavior will be regulated; on the other hand, it implies the deep harmony among tourist entrepreneurs and tourists, the local governments and the local residents, as well as tourist activities and the ecological environment in the tourism development for the multilateral benefit of every element involved and sustainable tourism development. The common sense is that the degrees in a certain tourism destination will differ and that consequently four levels of ecotourism are divided - very shallow ecotourism, shallow ecotourism, deep ecotourism and very deep ecotourism. To move shallow ecotourism toward deep one, two models of ＂four subjects and two wings＂ and ＂connecting the two wings＂ of deep ecotourism development system are introduced to make ecotourism industry favorable to the display of eco-culture and the sustainable development of the destination community. With the two models, a case study of ecotourism development in Louguantai National Forest Park was made as a demonstration. The ultimate purpose is to build an ideal new Shangri-La.     

A model of quality control based on recycling economy and sustainable manufacture

People currentiy pay attention to a hotspot problem that how industrial production is evaluated and controlled based on sustainable development theory. Quality is one of the important indexes. Two mainstream theories guide us to realize the industrial sustainable development： mainly the circular economy and sustainable manufacturing are introduced. The basic characteristics of the sustainable manufacturing are introduced, and that quality management is important contents of sustainable development is indicated. Based on circular economy and sustainable manufacture theories, the drawbacks in the existing quality management models are analyzed. The requests that satisfy the big system ＂environment- society - economy＂ are summarized to build up a model. A Chinese traditional cultural principle is applied and the relevant contents are sublimated as the platform to set up the model. The new quality management concept models are put forward ＂T- D- R＂ three-dimensional structures and ＂ecological quality loop＂ model, from which the new quality concepts are formed The paper elaborates the contents and the process of setting up the models. The big quality problems of the system can be handled by the new quality concept and model that are validated in practice.     

A transitions model for sustainable mobility

This paper reports on the development of a model for assessing transitions to sustainable mobility. The model uses the concepts of transition theory as a framework for assessing possible pathways by which a transition to a sustainable mobility society might happen. The modelling approach combines agent-based modelling techniques with a system dynamics structure. It is original in that there are two levels of agent. There are a small number of complex agents, which have an internal structure and are therefore subsystems within society, and a larger number of simple agents. Based on the UK data, the results show that Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCVs) come to dominate, but only in the very long run (after 2030), while biofuels and ICE (Internal Combustion Engine)-electric hybrids are the main alternatives to the regime in the next 10–30 years, because a) they are already developed and b) they fit better into current infrastructures. The model shows that technological transitions are most likely. Lifestyle change transitions require sustained pressure from the environment on society and behavioural change from consumers.     

Financial crisis and sustainable development of Chinese manufacturing industry

Sub-prime lending crisis has become an international financial crisis, which is evolving into an economic recession sweeping across the West. Financial crisis leads to the demand reduction in western countries, and as the largest manufacturing country, China must face overproduction. The role of China as ＂world factory＂ determines that financial crisis will severely attack Chinese manufacturing industry. The unsustainable development of Chinese manufacturing industry is mainly reflected in the following aspects： heavy dependence on export, low-level manufacturing link, lack of modern service industry and high-tech industry, weak independent innovative ability, unsustainable exploration of heavy-pollution resources, and lack of international famous brands. How to transform crisis to opportunities is an urgent research topic. Under the circumstance of financial crisis. Chinese manufacturing industry has more external drives to change the current situation. Therefore, financial crisis becomes not only an opportunity for Chinese manufacturing industry to improve itself based on the existing accumulation but also a chance for China to transform from ＂world factory＂ into a powerful nation of manufacturing industry in the world.     

Frontiers and sustainable economic development

Exploiting new resource “frontiers,” such as agricultural land and mineral reserves, is a fundamental feature of economic development in poor economies. Yet frontier-based development is symptomatic of a pattern of economy-wide resource exploitation in developing economies that: (a) generates little additional economic rents, and (b) what rents are generated are not being reinvested in other sectors. Such development is inherently unsustainable. The following paper explains this phenomenon, and provides evidence that long-run expansion of agricultural land and oil and natural gas proved reserves across poor economies is associated with lower levels of real income per capita. The paper proposes a frontier expansion hypothesis to explain why the structural economic dependence of these economies on frontier land expansion and resource exploitation is not conducive to sustained long-run growth. The key to sustainable economic development in poor economies will be improving the economic integration between frontier and other sectors of the economy, targeting policies to improved resource management in frontier areas and overcoming problems of corruption and rent-seeking in resource sectors.      

Another strategy to assess sustainable development

The goal of sustainoble development is to preserve sustainabitity trod simultaneously prevent catastrophe in a man-land .system. However, almost all the existing approaches to assessing sustainable development are to measure the sustainability. namely appraise from the obverse side of the sustainable development. So it seems necessary to attack the same task on the reverse, namely to measure the passibility of eatostrophe. In this paper, with a case study of Tianjin, China. we employ catastrophe theory and models to integrate Tianjin＇s sustainable development indicators, and then deduce the catastrophe risk index （ CRI） to present the level of catastrophic possibility in the city. Applying catastrophe theory, is a new strategy to assess sustainable development and shows great practical significance, especially for those developing regions or countries, who always give more priority to their economy and therefore have more obligation to make sure whether their social economic activities might bring forth any ecological environment catastrophe. Besides, being both qualitative and quantitative, the approach could be employed to explore not only static characteristics bat also dynamic mechanism of man-land system. Although our work is only a maiden attempt and still calls for further effort to improve it, the case study of Tianjin in this paper would assure as the great promising future to apply, catastrophe theory to sustoinable devetopment modeling,     

The rising culture and worldview of contemporary spirituality: A sociological study of potentials and pitfalls for sustainable development

Several social scientists claim that the rise of the culture of contemporary spirituality is a pivotal part of the gradual but profound change taking place in the Western worldview, both reflecting the larger cultural development, as well as giving shape and direction to it. Its emergence is therefore not to be neglected in attempts to create a more sustainable society. The aim of this study is to generate insight into the culture and worldview of contemporary spirituality and explore its potentials and pitfalls for sustainable development. An investigation of the sociological literature on the so-called “New Age” phenomenon results in a delineation and overview of these and shows that this culture is both a potentially promising force, as well as a phenomenon posing specific risks. A structural-developmental understanding is introduced in order to be able to distinguish between regressive and progressive tendencies in this culture, and comprehend the deeper logic behind the observed potentials and pitfalls. This may serve to facilitate the actualization of the culture's potentials while mitigating its pitfalls, and in that way contribute to the timely challenge of creating a more sustainable society.     

Study on environmental logistics based on sustainable development: a case study of Shandong Province

Traditional logistics takes economic interest as the final goal. The.frequency and changes of logistics activities have brought severe negative effects to the environment. At present, logistics industry, has become the dominant industry in the third industries, and it is also the main driver for economic development, As more emphasis has been attached to the philosophy of sustainable development, low carbon emission and environmental protection, environmental logistics has become the trend of logistics management. In this paper, basic theories of logistics, development economics etc. are employed, the dialectical relationship between environmental logistics and sustainable development are analyzed through statistics, and proposals are put forward to develop environmental logistics.     

Economic diversity, development capacity and sustainable development of China

China's economic growth over the past several decades has been among the highest in the world. It has been fueled by cheap fossil fuel energy so energy consumption has risen rapidly, but there are signs that negative feedbacks in the form of waste and inefficiency may affect future development. If energy throughput exceeds the capacity of the environment to process the inevitable waste from production then the development may not be sustainable. We calculate economic diversity using an energy flow network analysis method to explore the relationships of development policy, energy use, efficiency and sustainable development. China and its provinces are presented as a case study and the development status of each province in China is presented. China's development policy does not appear to be sustainable over the period 1985–1998 because of unsustainable energy consumption trends and declining economic diversity. An energy consumption tax is proposed for increasing diversity and dealing with increasing energy consumption in China.     

Backcasting images of the future city—Time and space for sustainable development in Stockholm

This paper presents and discusses a backcasting study for Stockholm 2050. The focus is on developing images of a future where Stockholm citizens have sustainable energy use—here defined as a 60% reduction per capita over a 50-year period. The perspective is that of households, so all energy is allocated to individuals’ activities rather than being discussed from a sector perspective. Six images of the future are developed by combining a space dimension (three versions of changes in urban structure) and a time dimension (two versions of people's life tempo). Added to this is technological development, so that the images of the future illustrate how combinations of planning, behavioural change and technological development could lead to sustainable energy use.     

浅谈区域可持续发展的静态评估指标体系构建

可持续发展已经被确定为我国21世纪的国家发展战略,但是,如何将这一崭新的科学发展观转换成可操作的管理模式,进而指导和规范我们的实际行动,仍然需要进行多方面的研究和探讨,其中,在某区域内评价和检测可持续发展的状态和可持续发展的程度是一个关键的问题.故在分析影响区域可持续发展水平诸因素的基础上,构建了区域可持续发展的静态评估指标体系,并对区域可持续发展总水平的综合评估方法作了具体阐述.     

Quantitative analysis on the contribution of industrial structure change to sustainable development： a case study of Fujian Province

Development and sustainability are the core connotation of sustainable development. Sustainability of economic development and the provision capability of resources and environment are two aspects of sustainable development. The former ones are the foundation of the latter ones＇. Industrial structure has a close relationship with sustainable development. The optimization of industrial structure is the important base for the sustainable development of modern economy and also the important ways of the sustainable utilization of resources and environment; The intensive growth effect of industrial structure change has the meaning of sustainable development. This paper reviews and explains the theory on the contribution of indus＇trial structure change to sustainable development, builds the calculation model through introducing the coefficient of industrial structure change, makes an empirical study on the contribution of industrial structure change to sustainable development in Fujian, and puts forward ways and policies of optimizing industrial structure both among industries and inside the industry in the process of industrial structure change.     

Designing trans-disciplinary research to support policy formulation for sustainable agricultural development

The article shows how existing multidisciplinary studies on sustainable agricultural development can be joined into a trans-disciplinary approach. Three interdisciplinary projects have been combined in a participatory discussion platform, in which researchers from different disciplines (economists, ecologists, social scientist and geographers) were brought together with a variety of stakeholders. The specific application of the developed method on agricultural development in Belgium, has revealed the need for crossing system boundaries within research, articulation of definitions on sustainable development, development of a coherent sustainability labelling policy and increasing the access to nation wide data both for researchers and policy makers.