Trade Policy Transparency and Investor Confidence: Some Implications for an Effective Trade Policy Review Mechanism

This paper is concerned with the value of the WTO's Trade Policy Review Mechanism, particularly its transparency role and its potential role in policy stability, for investor confidence in developing countries. The implications of reduced risk and uncertainty regarding trade policy for investor confidence, and ultimately for the capital stock and the long-run structure of production, are examined in an analytical model. Certainty equivalence is employed to assess the general equilibrium effects of risk and uncertainty. Their reduction can boost risk-adjusted returns, leading to an increase in long-run levels of capital.     

加快江苏省服务业发展的政策取向

改革开放30年来,江苏服务业规模持续扩大,结构和质量得到明显改善,其在促进经济平稳较快发展、增加税收收入和扩大就业等方面发挥了重要作用。但同时,江苏服务业发展面临着总量不大、结构不合理、体制机制障碍、竞争力不强等诸多问题。结合江苏发展的实际,该文提出加快江苏服务业发展的主要思路和相应的政策建议。     

International Trade and Commercial Policy for Durable Goods

Many commodities traded internationally are durable in nature. A dynamic durable goods oligopoly trade model is analyzed. The analysis indicates that the pattern of intraindustry trade depends fundamentally on the quality or durability of the firms' output. Indeed, product durability influences the effectiveness of commercial policy. For example, as domestic product durability rises, an increase in domestic tariffs has a smaller impact on domestic production. In addition, the model uncovers a previously unrecognized avenue by which product quality standards act as a barrier to trade. The results may help explain some of the empirical anomalies found in the literature.     

Results-Oriented Trade Policy

We construct a model of economic policy determination by an executive who controls a domestic policy instrument and who can influence, but not completely control, the conduct of trade policy. The executive exploits a polictical linkage between the policies. These circumstances can motivate implementation of a results-oriented trade policy by the government of a trading partner. We analyze the implications of such a policy under alternative situations.     

贸易政策不确定性与公司现金股利决策

文章以2003-2019年A股制造业上市公司为样本,研究宏观贸易政策不确定性对公司现金股利决策的影响.研究发现:贸易政策不确定性上升时,公司支付现金股利的意愿和水平会明显下降;这种负面影响与公司风险承担能力、内部治理水平均相关,说明行为同时受风险预防动机和代理动机驱动.据此,文章认为,当外部贸易环境较不确定时,既要增强公司产业链上下游协调能力和提升企业家信心,也要加强外部监管、引导公司实施积极平稳的现金股利政策,进而提升资本市场活力和吸引力.     

Learning-by-Doing and Strategic Trade Policy

The paper models international rivalry between a domestic firm that is going through a learning-by-doing phase, and a mature foreign rival. It is shown that the optimal production subsidy for the domestic firm depends on the degree of strategic sophistication of the foreign firm. Optimal production subsidy rules are derived under various scenarios. They are shown to be very sensitive to the specification of the game between the domestic and the foreign firms. Whether the optimal subsidy should decrease over time depends on the strategic sophistication of the foreign firm.     

战略贸易政策新进展与发展中国家贸易政策

通过对战略贸易政策在贸易的政治经济学、不确定性、不完全承诺和不完全信息等四个方面的新进展进行讨论,得出结论:新贸易理论的新进展使得脱胎于发达国家的战略贸易政策更加接近发展中国家市场经常失灵的现实,从而对发展中国家的贸易政策有重要的指导意义。     

贸易政策、增长和就业

直到现在,理论模型还去无法把贸易政策与更快的均衡增长联系起来,而且,实证文献有严重的数据方面的问题,因此,经济学家们还在贸易政策与经济运行的关系上争论不休。但是,最近的内生增长理论已经提供了更坚实的理论基础。有越来越多的证据表明,在外向型经济中,新技术能更快地被采用,外向型的贸易政策与储蓄率之间可能还是存在着某些联系的。而且,许多研究者进行的实证分析表明,在越开放的经济中,增长速度越快,创造的就业机会越多。所以,外向型贸易政策对增长、就业可能起正面的作用。     

Strategic Trade Policy and Vertical Structure

We introduce intermediaries into the Brander-Spencer model of strategic trade policy. A key finding is that in regimes involving independent retailers, output competition and linear pricing (and two-part tariffs under certain restrictions), the optimal policy involves an export tax instead of a subsidy. If firms commit to vertical structure before governments commit to policy then under output competition firms choose integration, whereas if policy precedes structure then at least one firm chooses separation. Under price competition separation is a dominant strategy regardless of whether the structure decision is made before or after the policy decision.     

Mergers and Trade Policy under Oligopoly

For an oligopolistic industry, the effects of mergers on the domestic country's optimal trade policy are analyzed. If the domestic country pursues an optimal trade policy then it will always lose as a result of a foreign merger. The optimal domestic response to a foreign merger is to decrease (increase) the tariff if demand is concave (convex) and to increase the production subsidy. The foreign merger reduces foreign welfare when the domestic country pursues its optimal trade policy. The optimal domestic response to a domestic merger is to leave the tariff unchanged and to increase the production subsidy.     

Environment and Trade: The Relationship of International Trade and Environmental Policy

Followers of urban affairs and public policy have written much over the years about the rise of suburbia and development beyond older city boundaries in the US, whether such development is called urban, suburban, or ex-urban sprawl. Many researchers have focused on various issues concerning sprawl, especially on the unintended consequences that new development has had for municipal finances, neighborhood income and residential segregation, and transportation planning, among other issues. Over the last decade, a new area in the literature on sprawl has focused on how the “built environment” of residential areas can impact health and emergency services. We contribute to this latest set of papers on sprawl by trying to empirically estimate the impact of sprawl in metropolitan regions on the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) spending on “public assistance.” This assistance encompasses spending on debris removal, emergency protective measures, and rehabilitating or rebuilding of infrastructure, public buildings, public utilities, parks and recreational areas, in post-disaster relief efforts. In our exploratory analysis, the results indicate that urban sprawl is a factor in influencing the level of FEMA’s public assistance spending.     

Trade Policy and Access to Retail Distribution

The paper develops a model in which foreign and domestic manufacturers producing differentiated goods sell through spatially differentiated retailers. There is free entry into retailing but access to the retail distribution network (by manufacturers) may be controlled. The author considers a domestic vertical control mechanism in which domestic retailers carry only domestic brands (termed “domestic dealing”) and compares the use of tariffs on imports and the enforcement of domestic dealing restrictions as means of increasing domestic welfare. It is shown that domestic dealing will always be prohibited when tariffs can be used. When trade policy is not available, however, domestic dealing may be desirable.     

绿色贸易大潮下拓展对外贸易的宏观对策

绿色贸易已成为国际贸易领域势不可挡的趋势 ,世界各国特别是发达国家广泛采取了与贸易有关的环保措施 ,影响中国对外贸易中的市场准入和竞争力。在此背景下拓展对外贸易 ,从宏观上看可有多种举措 ,突出的三点包括 :国际合作中维护中国的权益、培育绿色经济和绿色消费者、通过出口产品结构绿色化提高国际竞争力。     

Institutionalism and New Trade Theory: Rethinking Comparative Advantage and Trade Policy

Gomory and Baumol (2000), and Samuelson (2004) have raised concerns about international trade’s future impact on U.S. national income. The focus is how globalization may affect the size and distribution across countries of gains from trade. Though their analysis is developed using a pure trade theoretical framework, it has strands in common with institutionalist thinking. Their findings spotlight the need for a new U.S. trade policy agenda aimed at maximizing the U.S. share of gains from trade, and complementing conventional Keynesian open economy macroeconomic analysis.     

Core Labor Standards and Competitiveness: Implications for Global Trade Policy

One of the principal arguments for inclusion of core labor standards in the WTO is that weak labor standards provide an illegitimate boost to competitiveness and may result in a "race to the bottom" in labor standards worldwide. This paper shows that, if the violation of labor standards results from discrimination against particular workers in export industries, employment, output, and competitiveness will be reduced since employment is determined by the short side of the market. If the problems arise from abuse of market power by employers, competitiveness will be similarly reduced. Only if freedom of association and collective bargaining were intended to allow workers in some sectors to restrict output and drive up wages would the absence of these standards raise competitiveness. However, if product markets are competitive, it is likely that association rights would increase output and competitiveness by raising productivity. The competitiveness argument seems either to reflect analytical confusion or to represent a cover for protectionist interests.     

中美服务贸易比较及中国服务贸易发展的对策

中国服务贸易与发达国家尤其是美国的双边服务贸易一直处于失衡状态,研究美国服务贸易的发展,对中国服务贸易具有重要启示。本文依据最新的统计资料,针对中美服务贸易发展水平、内部结构、地理方向和体制法规进行比较分析,并结合后危机时代世界服务贸易发展趋势,提出中国服务贸易发展的相关对策。