Can Trade Agreements Curtail Trade Creation and Prevent Trade Diversion?

This paper investigates how pre‐existing preferential trade agreements (PTAs) dilute the trade creation effect and shield the trade diversion effect of new PTAs. Countries having pre‐existing PTAs enjoy smaller gains in intra‐bloc trade because of the dilution effect and experience smaller losses or even gains in extra‐bloc trade because of the shielding effect. The findings support the proposition that PTAs could be used to fend off future trade diversion.     

需求贸易理论与我国的绿色贸易战略

从需求角度考察国际贸易理论,需求模式的变动会通过产业结构调整来影响贸易模式的发展和变化,因此,贸易格局的最终动因要到需求结构中去找。一国的竞争优势取决于市场规模,更取决于市场特征,内需在竞争优势中发挥了重要作用。目前,我国的外贸结构存在非持续性的弊端,实施绿色贸易战略,应该在注重外需因素的同时,充分发挥内需在培育绿色竞争优势方面的作用。     

技术贸易壁垒与我国出口贸易

技术贸易壁垒是目前发达国家实行贸易保护的最主要手段之一。技术贸易壁垒对国际贸易发展有消极和积极两个方面的影响。利用世贸规则以防不合理的技术贸易壁垒和提升我国出口商品科技含量显得尤为重要。     

中蒙贸易互补性与贸易潜力研究

文章利用产业内贸易指数分析中蒙贸易的互补性,建立扩展的引力模型探究两国的贸易潜力。结果显示:中蒙主要是产业间贸易,有互补的贸易需求;两国贸易为"潜力开拓型",潜力值波动不明显,还有未被发现的贸易潜力。中蒙应加强互联互通,在保持原有贸易模式的同时,寻找新的贸易增长点。     

绿色贸易壁垒对我国外贸的影响

自可持续发展思潮产业和发展起来以后，环保问题愈来愈引人注目，与贸易有关的环境问题也已成为影响国际贸易可持续发展的重要因素，并受到WTO的高度重视。1995年WTO设 贸易与环境专门委员会（CET），以强化WTO对贸易与环境的管理，并在WTO导言中阐述了实现可持续发展与环境保护需要的目标。但是由于在乌拉圭回合的谈判所形成的协议之中对关税壁垒及传统的非关税壁垒的有关规定越来越严格，贸易的透明度进一步提高，传统的贸易保护进一步受到有效的限制，贸易保护主义不得不寻求新的贸易保护手段来实施其贸易保护战略。在这种背景下，发达国家利用自己的经济，技术，优势，借环保之名，对一些发展中国家设置了“绿色贸易壁垒”。这种壁垒已越来越成为发达国家在国际贸易中所使用的主要技术壁垒，对世界经济产生重大影响。我国加入WTO后，外贸出口面对的国外贸易保护和关税壁垒状况将会大为改观，但是与贸易有关的环境因素构筑的绿色贸易壁垒将会威胁我国的贸易利益。在与国际市场全面接轨的过程中，如何适应WTO多边贸易体制有关贸易与环境问题达成的协议，如何突破西方发达国家日趋严格的绿色贸易壁垒，是我国加入WTO后，外贸环境能否真正得到改善的关键所在。     

中国当前的加工贸易与加工贸易政策(上篇)

本文概述了目前我国加工贸易的状况和政府给予加工贸易的优惠政策，分析了加工贸易政策的利与弊，得出了加工贸易政策目前已经弊大于利的结论，提出了取消给予加工贸易的优惠政策的主张     

Trade Elasticities

Conventional aggregate trade elasticity estimates hardly vary across countries. We introduce an aggregate elasticity that is implied by theory: It is the value that equates the welfare gains from trade as implied by one‐ and multi‐sector versions of the model in Arkolakis et al. (American Economic Review, 102 (2012):94–130). These estimates are predicated on sector‐level values for trade elasticites, which we provide at three‐digit levels for 28 developed and developing countries. The values for this aggregate elasticity vary greatly across countries, and they do so because of countries' patterns of production and because a given sector‐level elasticity displays considerable cross‐country heterogeneity.     

Trade Impacts of China's World Trade Organization Accession

This study examines China's World Trade Organization (WTO) accession commitments and assesses their implications for China and the world using a model reflecting the importance of duty-free intermediate inputs in China's exports. The WTO agreement built on earlier reforms that introduced competition into the trade regime, eliminated nontariff barriers and exchange rate overvaluation, and reduced tariffs. The reforms associated with accession were conservatively estimated to increase global real incomes by $74 billion per year, with $29 billion accruing to China and the remainder primarily to those countries trading directly with China. Some lower-income developing countries faced greater competition from China in third markets.     

Rationalizable Trade

We formulate necessary and sufficient conditions for interim rationalizable trade between two players. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D82, C72.     

Domestic Trade and Transport Costs in International Trade Theory

This paper examines the effects that domestic trade and transport margins have on international trade and the consequences for the central trade theorems. Specifically, the Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson model is expanded to include a third industry that produces the nontraded domestic services in transportation, warehousing, wholesaling and retailing required to market goods to final purchasers. It is found that the domestic margins probably impose substantial natural trade barriers and that they can cause the central trade theorems (factor-price equalization, Stolper-Samuelson, and Rybczynski) to fail. [F11]     

服务贸易壁垒与货物贸易壁垒的比较

20世纪90年代以来,服务业已成为全球经济增长最快的部门,全球经济竞争的重点正从货物贸易转向服务贸易。近年货物贸易频频遭遇的技术壁垒已经成了我国发展国际贸易的瓶颈,分析货物贸易壁垒与服务贸易壁垒的规律、异同和应对其的成本和措施,对制定国家贸易战略有着重要的现实意义。     

建立中国——东盟自由贸易区的贸易效应分析

在当今世界经济的发展中,区域经济一体化是战后世界经济发展的重要特征,也是当前世界经济发展的客观必然趋势.按照<中国-东盟全面经济合作框架协议>时间框架,中国-东盟自由贸易区于2010年1月1日全面建成.本文首先介绍了中国-东盟自由贸易区的发展状况;然后采用定性分析法,通过对建立中国-东盟自由贸易区的贸易效应分析,可以看出中国东盟的经济还有很大的发展空间,只要将贸易区内存在的问题处理妥当,中国-东盟自由贸易区在建成后将能发挥更大的潜力.     

Trade Blocs and Trade Wars during the Interwar Period

What precisely were the causes and consequences of the trade wars in the 1930s? Were there perhaps deeper forces at work in reorienting global trade prior to the outbreak of World War II? And what lessons may this particular historical episode provide for the present day? To answer these questions, we distinguish between long‐run secular trends in the period from 1920 to 1939 related to the formation of trade blocs and short‐run disruptions associated with the trade wars of the 1930s. We argue that the trade wars mainly served to intensify pre‐existing efforts toward the formation of trade blocs which dated from at least 1920. More speculatively, we argue that the trade wars of the present day may serve a similar purpose as those in the 1930s, that is, the intensification of China‐ and US‐centric trade blocs.     

How Do Technical Barriers to Trade Influence Trade?

This paper empirically estimates the trade effects of technical barriers to trade (TBT) based on all TBT notifications from 105 World Trade Organization (WTO) countries during 1995–2008. The paper adopts a modified two‐stage gravity model to control for both sample selection bias and firm heterogeneity bias. It was found that a country's TBT notifications decrease other countries' probability of exporting, but increase their export volumes. The result can be explained by the TBT's differential effects on the fixed and variable cost of export, and consumer confidence. It was further found that (i) a developing country's TBT have significant effects on other developing countries' exports, but no significant effects on the developed countries' exports, (ii) a developed country's TBT have significant effects on the exports from both types of countries, and (iii) exports from developed countries are affected by a developed country's TBT more seriously than a developing country's TBT.     

中美贸易:巨额顺差背后的利益流失

自1993年以来,中国对美贸易出现巨额顺差,但是其背后却是整体贸易利益的流失.本文在对利益及其流失渠道探讨的基础上,从贸易利益的直接流失和转流失两个层面展开分析,指出贸易条件恶化和在华美资公司的转移价格和巨额利润汇回是我国贸易利益流失的主要表现,并对其特征和趋势进行了必要的总结.     

消除技术性贸易壁垒 发展我国对外贸易

文章介绍了国际贸易中保护贸易的措施和技术性壁垒的手段 ,概述了我国在与国际经济贸易接轨时所遇到的技术性壁垒的形式和应对措施及利用非关税壁垒保护我国民族工业的对策     

中国区域间的制度性贸易成本与贸易福利

降低中国国内区域间的贸易成本,对于充分发挥国内市场潜力,推动构建以国内大循环为主体,国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局具有重要意义,而降低国内区域间的制度性贸易成本,更是促进国内大循环有效畅通的重要举措.本文通过构建一个多部门的一般均衡模型,发现中国国内贸易中的制度性贸易成本在国内总贸易成本中占比为21.7％,且制度性贸易成本的降低对贸易福利的改善来说效益十分明显,平均来看制度性贸易成本降低50％,会使中国整体福利水平提升5.9％,欠发达区域从制度性贸易成本的下降中获益最多.进一步地,各区域生产率差异化程度越高,即贸易弹性值越小,则制度性贸易成本的下降所带来的潜在收益也就越大;分部门来看,降低石油加工及炼焦业、农业、钢铁及有色金属加工冶炼业以及食品加工业部门的制度性贸易成本,将对中国的整体福利水平带来可观的效益.