Constructing Projects of National Development in Latin America?

Abstract

This article analyzes technology-related development in Latin America from a heterodox perspective based in Institutionalist and Structuralist Economics. Since the 1970s, the lack of systematic national projects designed to institutionalize endogenous innovation capabilities in the region has constituted a critical structural impediment to development. Eschewing the creation of public goods, most nations in Latin America abandoned important incipient efforts to develop technological autonomy as undertaken during the state-led industrialization period. This article highlights poorly understood but relatively successful aspects of the import substitution industrialization (ISI) strategy on technological advancement in the state-led era. Recently, neoliberalism's monolithic grip has been loosened. Brazil has undergone somewhat of a paradigmatic shift while advancing toward the creation of a national innovation system (NIS), thereby offering important lessons for other Latin American nations. Mexico, in contrast, shows no indication of attaining autonomous technological capabilities. The attainment of such capabilities in highly industrialized countries, and fast developing Asian nations, partially resulted from the construction of a NIS. The creation of a NIS embodies an interactive and interdependent process: it entails the joint and combined participation of scientists and others involved in research and development (R&D) activities in (1) the public and private sectors and (2) universities. These elements combine with agents of the state empowered to finance and coordinate the construction and maintenance of the NIS. The construction of a NIS has induced “increasing returns” in production processes. As Furtado emphasized, supply-enhancing technological capacity must be met by inclusive demand-enhancing policies that embed the vast underlying population in the growth process.     

Celso Furtado: Culture and Creativity Matter

This article deals with the relationship between development, creativity, and culture. It is based on the works of Celso Furtado — a Brazilian economist, a member of ECLAC’s first generation of scholars (along with Raul Prebisch), and a notable intellectual of sub-development and development in Brazil and Latin America. For Furtado, economic development is an endogenous social process that leads to human ingenuity and creativity. However, Furtado argued that creativity does not occur haphazardly. It is conditioned by cultural structures that can take two forms: material (means) or immaterial (ends). The former steers creativity toward serving material accumulation and consumption, while the latter guides it toward individuals’ existential way of life. Furtado’s central claim is that, in the “industrial civilization,” such values as rationality and efficiency bring human creativity into the production process.     

Crossing Hubbert’s peak: Portfolio effects in a growth model with exhaustible resources

This paper elaborates a two-class growth model with an exhaustible resource (“oil”) and an alternative technique (“solar”). Bequest savers accumulate wealth, consisting of capital and oil, saving a constant fraction of their end-of-period wealth. The price of oil obeys Hotelling’s rule. Rising oil prices and the depletion of oil supplies create portfolio effects on the accumulation of capital. When growth is constrained by an exogenously increasing labor force, these wealth effects express themselves in changes in the distribution of income, which first shifts toward profits and then shifts back toward wages as the oil stocks approach depletion. When growth is constrained by capital (the labor force is endogenous), the portfolio effects express themselves in changes in the rate of capital accumulation, which first declines and then rises sharply as the oil stocks approach depletion.     

Building a Centre of Capital Accumulation: A Study of the Institutional Emergence of the French Private Equity Sector (from the Early 1980s to 2017)

ABSTRACT

This article describes a major shift in French capitalism: the emergence and development of the new private equity sector. It discusses the particularities involved in the construction of this capital accumulation centre in France, studying how an advantageous institutional arrangement was coproduced by fund managers, government and traditional industrial managers. As such, it takes an institutional approach focusing on the history of the rules that enable financial activities. This article’s empirical material takes the form of (hitherto untapped) archives from the professional association of French private equity funds covering the period from 1984 to 2017, 12 interviews with former presidents of the association and ten interviews with partners of large French private equity funds.     

The Policy Ramifications of Capital as Ideas

In 1987, Baldwin Ranson wrote about capital and technology in economic growth. Ranson argued that capital should be defined as intangible ideas and technology that are not subject to supply and demand constraints. Thorstein Veblen (1908, 518) described his conception of capital as being “found in possession of something in the way of a body of technological knowledge, – knowledge serviceable and requisite to the quest of a livelihood.” John R. Commons (1934, 662) wrote in a similar vein that “capital is not an accumulation of past products of stored-up labor – these are transitory and aimless – capital is a going plant of industrial knowledge and experience.” More recently, Cesar Hidalgo (2015) and Paul Romer (1990, 1994) have also written about the idea of capital as ideas and the key to economic growth. Hidalgo (2015, 179) states that “the growth of information in the economy, which is ultimately the essence of economic growth, results from the coevolution of our species’ collective computation capacity.” The first section of this article explores the linkages between the older generation and more recent thinkers on the intersection of capital as technology and ideas. The second section explores the policy ramifications of this conceptualization of capital. Romer argues that temporary monopolies are needed to encourage investment in innovation. According to both Veblen and Ranson, these rules do not allow for the full social value of ideas to be utilized. The second part of this article also explores these differences using A. Allan Schmid’s situation-structure-performance (SSP) model.     

Transformation and continuity in Cuba

This article considers the propositions of transition and transformation research with respect to the “deviant case” of still socialist Cuba. A central element of the explanation for Cuba’s “nontransition” is the specific relationship of political continuity and economic transformation - even as the latter is carried out paradoxically largely behind the back of the state and against its officially expressed will. A second decisive factor is the simultaneity of the “political” and the “national” questions, in which Cuba’s political system can present itself as the defender of national sovereignty. The aggressive policy of “exporting democracy” from the United States in the style of the Helms-Burton Law has thus exactly the opposite result: stabilization despite internal crisis and loss of legitimation.     

Accounting for the wealth of Denmark: a case study of Smithian growth using the emergence of modern accounting in Danish dairying

Abstract

The idea of “Smithian growth” rests on a “natural” development out of agriculture through capital accumulation, and the division of labour. We confront these concepts with an “historical experiment” and the case of Danish agriculture in the nineteenth century. Specifically, we look at how accounting was used to promote specialization, ultimately in butter production, leading to the massive increases in productivity that Smith predicted. We also observe the emergence of Smithian “philosophers”. This ultimately led to the capital-intensive industrialization of Danish agriculture through butter factories, and general development. We argue that this establishes the historical relevance of Smith’s theories.     

From Industrial Policy to Innovation Policy: Japan's Pursuit of Competitive Advantage*

Japan faces significant challenges in encouraging innovation and entrepreneurship. Attempts to formally model past industrial policy interventions uniformly uncover little, if any, positive impact on productivity, growth, or welfare. The evidence indicates that most resource flows went to large, politically influential “backwards” sectors, suggesting that political economy considerations may be central to the apparent ineffectiveness of Japanese industrial policy. Rather than traditional industrial or science and technology policy, financial and labor market reforms appear more promising. As a group, Japan's industrial firms are competitive relative to their foreign counterparts. Where Japan falls behind is in the heavily regulated service sector. The problems appear to be due less to a lack of industrial policy than to an excess of regulation. Japan may have more to gain through restructuring the lagging service sector than by expending resources in pursuit of marginal gains in the industrial sector.     

GREENHOUSE‐GAS EMISSION CONTROLS IN AN OPEN ECONOMY*

To examine how greenhouse‐gas emission controls affect a country's industrial and trade structures, this article presents an open economy model that has both Ricardian and Heckscher–Ohlin features. We specifically compare emission quotas, emission taxes, and emission standards. The patterns of production and trade critically hinge on those policy tools. It is shown that a domestic emission control may lead to carbon leakage and may not reduce the world emissions, and that emission standards may work as a “hidden” production subsidy toward an emission‐intensive industry.     

纵向结构与投入品竞价合谋的悖论分析--日资配件企业“垄断协议”案的若干思考

2013年以来，跨国公司主导的价格合谋和价格歧视受到了中国反垄断机构的调查和处罚。文章以汽车配件行业中“日资企业”的价格垄断案为线索，构建了一个纵向股权关联下投入品价格合谋和集团内转移定价的理论模型，通过静态比较分析发现：关联企业之间的价格投标合谋并不符合“利润最大化”的目标，而是跨国公司作为实际控制人在上下游股权比例和盈利能力不对等的条件下，将下游整车合资企业的利润转移到上游配件企业的一种手段。文章从股权比例和企业运营模式的层面论证了利润转移假说的合意性，并结合主要细分市场的结构和利润关系，对“结构－合谋”原理所面临的现实矛盾进行了深入分析。文章的主要政策建议是：中国汽车产业的反垄断立法要实现从行为惩罚到规则干预的转化，要适当增加产业组织分析的证据以提高执法的科学水准，需要更多地使用合理推定原则以避免对企业理性行为的不当干预。     

Tax cuts and enterprises’ R&D intensity: Evidence from a natural experiment in China

This paper studies the impact of tax cuts on enterprises’ R&D intensity. We use a natural experiment involving China’s business tax changing to value-added tax (“BT to VAT”) to identify any causality. The results reveal that this tax reform has prompted enterprises to increase their research and development (R&D) investment. Specifically, a stronger ability to transfer tax, results in this change having a more significant promotional effect on enterprises’ R&D intensity. Further analysis demonstrates that firms with different ownership types and in different industries respond differently to the “BT to VAT” policy. Our findings are only significant for non-state-owned and other modern service enterprises. This paper provides a theoretical and empirical basis for detailed analyses of the effects of “BT to VAT” policy, particularly the government’s subsequent improvement to the tax reform policy, to further stimulate enterprise investments in R&D as well as industrial upgrading.     

Return of industrial policy?

For the sake of freedom, economic growth and poverty reduction the state in market economies should limit itself to regulating markets and (sometimes) correcting ‘market failures’. This neoliberal conception has been the near-consensus for the past two to three decades in the West and in western-led international organizations such as the World Bank. But as of recently, the consensus has been challenged by circumstances with which it cannot contend. This article spells out key ideas behind the consensus – in particular, its rejection of industrial policy. It then argues that the US government has long practised – to good effect – a hitherto little noticed type of industrial policy focused neither on the individual firm nor on the geographic region but on networks of firms, and that a (small) change in the American normative climate has occurred post 2008 in favour of a government steering role in markets. Moreover, some middle-income countries, with manufacturing sectors shrinking in the face of East Asian competition, have recently shown renewed interest in industrial policy. Finally, parts of the World Bank have recently begun to operationalize industrial policy, under the banner of ‘building competitive industries’ (industrial policy by another name), as has not been the case since the mid 1980s. The combination of these several forces may herald the emergence of new global norms in favour of a more ‘developmental’ role of the state.     

False prosperity: Rethinking government support for farmers’ cooperatives in China

The rapid development of farmers’ cooperatives in rural China cannot be separated from government support. To ensure the growth of farmers’ cooperatives, the Chinese government uses it as a key performance indicator for its local institutions. Superficially, rural China's cooperative population and membership size witnessed rapid growth during the first decade after the Farmers’ Specialized Cooperatives Law was enacted in 2007; however, such government intervention also leads to non-standard phenomena due to market distortion. Using nationally representative survey data from 504 cooperatives in Jiangsu, Jilin, and Sichuan provinces, this paper provides a reliable estimate of the “shell cooperative” rate around 2014. The empirical study sheds further light on the role of government during the period of rapid but chaotic growth by a subset containing 241 marketing cooperatives. Results show that direct administrative intervention leads to the emergence of many shell cooperatives (approximately 37%). Further study also confirms that task-oriented policy support is only positively associated with the nominal coverage ratio but has no significant relationship with cooperatives’ function. This study provides new insights into the formation of shell cooperatives and suggests that direct administrative intervention may not be a good strategy for promoting the sustainable development of farmers’ cooperatives.     

The accidental agro-power: constructing comparative advantage in Brazil

Brazil has emerged as an agro-export powerhouse: from being a net-agricultural importer and food aid recipient as recently as the 1960s and 1970s, it has now become the world’s third largest agricultural exporter, after the US and EU. What is more, Brazil’s new role as a major agricultural trader has provided an important foundation for its enhanced status and influence in global economic governance, as an emerging power and one of the ‘BRICS’. This paper analyses how such a remarkable transformation was brought about. I argue that Brazil’s emergence as an agricultural powerhouse was the result not of its natural factor endowments, but extensive intervention on the part of the Brazilian state that had the effect of constructing a new comparative advantage. This transformation was propelled by state-driven innovation and related policies that opened up massive new areas of the country to agriculture, enabled it to shift to producing goods in direct competition with the world’s dominant agricultural exporters, and generated significant gains in productivity and competitiveness. The irony is that the intention of these policies, initiated in the 1970s, was to foster industrial development in Brazil as part of its import-substitution industrialisation programme, yet they wound up having precisely the opposite effect – transforming Brazil into one of the world’s dominant agricultural powers.     

The Trojan-Horse Principle in Development Assistance: A Reading of Uganda's Experience with Aid

The World Bank recommends “ideas, not money” as a guiding principle to donors for dealing with badly governed countries. This paper challenges that principle on the basis of a study of the evolution in Uganda of pro‐growth policies in the early to mid 1990s and pro‐poor policies in the late 1990s. The analysis of Uganda’s experience with aid is accommodated within the theoretical framework of a principal–agent conditionality game, in which policy objectives of the recipient (the agent) evolve over time. The key finding of the paper is that the apparent conditionality failure of the period 1987–91 has paved the way for later reform. Financial aid given during this period suspended the necessity of reforms and bought donor proximity to recipient policy deliberations, as a result of both of which the policy learning could take place that led to later successful reform measures.     

Complexity Economics as Heterodoxy: Theory and Policy

Complexity economics has quickly become a powerful research program for real-world economics in recent years. This article provides an overview of complexity economics, and argues that it is incompatible with the “equilibrium” and “optimality” conceptions of the mainstream and its “market economy.” Instead, it develops older heterodox — including evolutionary-institutional — issues like self-organization, emergence, path?dependence, idiosyncrasies, lock-ins, or skewed power distributions. Also, the space for emergent institutions through the “intentionality” of agents, including their improving collective performance, reducing complexity, and others, is investigated. This article considers complex adaptive systems through “games on networks” in an “evolution-of-cooperation” perspective. Moreover, a surge in policy implications of economic complexity has emerged, even if still rather general. With some more specific implications derived, the article again reveals the close similarities with long-standing heterodoxies: namely, pragmatist policy conceptions in this respect.     

Disputed Rivers: Sovereignty,Territory and State-Making in South Asia, 1948–1951

The construction of territorial sovereignty is key to conceptions of modern states. Yet after the Partition of India and Pakistan in 1947, when both became independent from Britain, the precise nature of India’s relationship to Pakistan was open to some question. Was Pakistan a foreign country? Was India’s relationship to it international? This article uses the example of a dispute over water resources in the Indus Basin to highlight the process through which Indian officials in New Delhi’s External Affairs and Law ministries came to define Pakistan as constitutionally, as well as geographically, “outside” India between 1948 and 1951. Yet while Indian policy makers manoeuvred into an aggressive stance against Pakistan, both countries’ membership of the British Commonwealth implied an international relationship blurring the formal distinction between “domestic” and “foreign”. Negotiating the contradictions between Commonwealth rules and the desire to assert sovereignty over territory and resources, I argue, made Indian sovereignty contingent on circumstance.     

地方政府“两手”供地与企业创新*——基于土地市场交易数据和企业微观数据的实证分析

中国土地市场存在明显的低价出让工业用地、高价出让商住用地的“两手”供地倾向，这种供地策略在促进制造业大规模集聚和发展的同时，也深刻影响着企业创新行为。本文利用中国土地市场网微观土地交易数据，测算283个地级及以上城市“两手”供地指标，并基于中国工业企业数据库、中国工业企业专利数据库和中国城市面板数据的匹配数据，分析地方政府“两手”供地对企业创新的影响机制。结果显示，地方政府“两手”供地对企业创新具有先升后降的倒“U”型影响，且多数城市“两手”供地带来过大的商住用地和工业用地价格“剪刀差”，已对企业创新产生明显的抑制作用。进一步研究发现，地方政府“两手”供地程度的不断加深，在长期内通过降低城市和企业研发投入、弱化集聚效应及抬升房价等机制阻碍了企业创新水平提升，且地方政府的增长竞争和财政最大化使“两手”供地与企业创新之间的“拐点”提前，进一步强化其对企业创新的抑制作用。此外，地方政府“两手”供地对企业创新的影响还具有明显的异质性特征，依赖于企业所有制类型、所在城市等级等方面。     

可持续发展背景下中国资源型城市的双重结构转型

在我国可持续发展的战略背景下,资源型城市经历了由资源型部门向非资源型部门、由国有部门向非国有部门的双重结构转型过程。以全国24个省份的110个资源型城市作为样本,实证分析了双重结构转型与我国资源型城市经济发展的关系,得出长期过程中国有部门和资源型部门占比呈现先上升后下降的倒“U”型趋势的结论,并分析了金融抑制和市场垄断程度这两种外部约束因素对双重转型过程的影响。研究发现,金融抑制主要通过间接效应扭曲了资源配置,进而影响了体制转型的过程,减缓了国有经济占比下降的速度;而资源型城市的市场垄断性越强,其发展转型就越难以进行。根据以上结论为我国资源型城市的结构转型和可持续发展提出了政策建议。     

Toward Reasonable Capitalism: The Role of John R. Commons’s Price and Business Cycle Theories

Abstract

John R. Commons thought that prices should be stable and that the law of supply and demand should be controlled by the power of the state through patent law and by protecting bargaining equality. Commons also thought that prices should be stabilized by macro monetary policy. These means would allow the realization of a “reasonable price.” Commons called the objective and measurable value in money, which is determined by a court ruling, “reasonable value.” Analysis of Commons’s price and business cycle theories point toward the realization of both “reasonable price” and “reasonable value” and toward “reasonable capitalism” that can replace banker capitalism.