中国矿业全要素生产率及其影响因素研究北大核心

提高矿产资源利用效率是破解环境约束与经济发展矛盾的迫切需要,是促进人与自然和谐共生的必然要求。首先采用基于非期望产出的Super-SBM模型对我国2007—2016年31个省份的矿业全要素生产率(TFP)和投入产出情况进行了测度,其次通过Malmquist指数对TFP的动态变化进行分析,最后运用Tobit模型分析产业结构、能源结构、制度因素、环境因素等对区域TFP的影响,以期为矿业高质量发展提供参考。结果表明:中国矿业总体上DEA有效,非期望产出过多是制约样本期内各地区TFP提高和TFP高波动地区效率值波动向下时的共有原因;中国区域矿业Malmquist指数总体呈增长态势,但区域间TFP发展不均衡;产业结构、制度因素、能源结构对TFP影响显著为正,且能源结构是对TFP影响最大的因素。     

基于DSGE模型的我国核心通货膨胀研究

文章以新凯恩斯粘性价格理论为基础,采用DSGE模型,为我国核心通货膨胀指数的核算构建了微观基础,并因此获得了各部门价格指数的最优权重。分析认为：最优的权重受部门价格粘性、随机冲击以及部门产出缺口的价格弹性等因素的影响而变化,随着部门的价格粘性的增加而增加,且随着随机冲击方差的减少而增加,又随着部门产出缺口的价格弹性的增加而增加。与CPI指数相比,由最优权重所核算出来的核心通货膨胀指数更加的平滑稳定,没有剧烈的波动,基本上反映了CPI指数的核心趋势。并且文章的研究结论与侯成琪等(2011)的研究也相一致。因此,文章建议其可以作为我国货币政策制定与实施的具有福利标准的参考锚的。     

中国劳动力错配对TFP的影响分析

文章利用一个资源错配对TFP影响的核算框架和中国改革开放30年的宏观经济、产业相关数据,估算了当前中国农业部门就业比重过大对全要素生产率产生的影响。结果显示,改革以来,劳动力错配对TFP有着明显的负效应,以不同的指标计算,在-2%到-18%之间,并呈逐渐扩大趋势。这种负的效应随着发展和改革的历程有明显的波动趋势;把总效应分解为工资差异效应和部门份额效应以后,显示中国当前的劳动力错配对TFP产生的负效应主要是由于部门间的工资差异所致。     

生产率冲击、随机趋势与经济波动

文章在新古典随机增长模型的框架下,扩展并简化了KPSW的计量经济学方法,并用它识别和测量了具有持久效应的生产率冲击对我国经济波动的影响.我们发现具有持久效应的生产率冲击不仅引起了这些变量长期趋势的随机变化,而且导致了投资和产出偏离随机趋势的短期波动.不过,生产率冲击的短期波动效应可能并不具有实际上的重要性.     

金融冲击和中国经济波动

最近的金融危机及其引发的经济危机突出了金融部门和实体经济之间存在着某种联系。而这也让学者清楚地意识到在对宏观经济建模时不能忽视源自于金融市场的摩擦和冲击。本文尝试将金融冲击引入到动态随机一般均衡模型,以此来解释金融冲击对实际经济变量和金融变量的动态影响,探讨金融冲击的重要性及其作用机制,并通过贝叶斯方法估计模型的结构参数。结果发现:金融冲击是驱动中国经济周期波动的最主要力量,它在解释产出增长、投资增长、债务增长、工资增长和就业的波动方面体现出非常重要的作用。即使存在其它多个冲击,金融冲击仍然能够解释近80%的产出增长波动。进行脉冲反应分析时发现,金融冲击会使产出、消费、投资和就业等出现大幅下降。     

混频数据、投资冲击与中国宏观经济波动

使用中国数据估计DSGE模型时,由于缺乏季度的支出法消费、投资数据,一般使用月度的社会消费品零售额、固定资产投资数据加总作为替代。本文利用这一数据对DSGE模型进行贝叶斯估计,发现参数估计结果会出现系统性偏差;而使用年度的支出法消费、投资数据进行估计,模型的样本外预测绩效总体更优。基于这一结果,将年度频率的支出法投资、消费数据与季度频率的GDP、货币、通胀数据相结合,同时又结合投资品价格的年度(1992—1997年)、半年度(1998—2002年)和季度(2003—2016年)数据,对模型重新估计并进行方差分解。结果表明:中国产出波动的最主要解释因素是与投资相关的冲击,其次为货币政策冲击、持久性技术冲击和外生需求冲击。     

银行信贷与中国经济波动:1993-2005

基于1993—2005年的季度数据,本文在一个包含银行部门的动态随机一般均衡模型中,讨论了银行信贷和中国经济波动的关系。模拟结果和实际数据的对比表明,引入银行贷款渠道和价格粘性的经济周期模型对中国经济波动有很好的解释力。脉冲响应和方差分解的结果表明:(1)技术冲击解释了大部分产出、投资以及长期消费的波动;(2)信贷冲击解释了大部分短期消费、贷款以及货币余额的波动,对产出、投资的波动有一定解释力;(3)货币需求冲击影响不显著,仅对通货膨胀、贷款以及货币余额波动有一定的解释力;(4)货币政策冲击解释了通货膨胀的大部分波动。     

住房市场波动与宏观经济政策的有效性

本文建立了一个多部门随机动态一般均衡模型,分析住房市场波动与宏观经济运行的关系,并重点探讨商品生产部门投资效率下降的背景下,不同宏观经济政策及组合的有效性。结果表明,住房市场杠杆率上升,会放大住房部门波动,影响宏观经济稳定。当扰动来自于商品生产部门投资效率变动时,住房市场波动呈逆周期变化,需求管理可稳定产出,但会助长房价或挤出私人投资;结构性的减税降费措施可有效稳定产出,缓解住房市场波动;宏观审慎管理能有效平抑房价,但会加大产出波动。在难以精准识别减税降费力度时,货币政策、宏观审慎和减税降费等结构性措施构成的次优政策组合可以较好地兼顾稳增长、控房价和调结构,并提高社会福利。     

我国经济周期波动率的成分分解及稳定性研究

随着世界经济周期波动的减缓,我国经济波动也呈现出稳定性趋势.文章通过建立具有货币政策干预的产品市场均衡模型,对我国实际产出波动率进行了成分分解,并将实际产出波动的来源归结为需求冲击、供给冲击和货币冲击的作用.通过这些经济冲击方差序列的度量,又对实际产出波动率进行了冲击方差序列的回归检验,发现我国需求冲击和货币冲击强度的逐渐平稳是经济周期波动率降低的主要原因,而供给冲击对实际产出波动率没有产生显著影响.因此,我国宏观经济调控仍然需要坚持需求管理的政策导向,以保持经济持续稳定增长.     

环境约束下中国旅游业动态效率的测算与分析——基于三阶段Malmquist指数模型的实证分析

将三阶段DEA与Malmquist指数相结合,利用2007—2010年中国31个省级区域的面板数据,对全国、各省级区域、三大地区旅游业的TFP及其分解指数进行了测算与分析。研究结果表明:在剔除了环境变量和随机误差的影响后,中国旅游业的TFP及其分解效率发生了明显变化;居民收入水平、交通便利程度、居民出游偏好和地理区位因素都对中国旅游业的发展效率产生显著影响;在剔除环境变量和随机误差的影响后,2007—2010年期间中国旅游业的TFP呈逐步提升趋势,技术进步是推动旅游业TFP增长的主要动力,技术效率则起抑制作用——这主要源于规模效率水平的下降。     

Trade Openness,Structural Change and Total Factor Productivity

The impact of trade openness on growth of total factor productivity (TFP) is investigated. Given the differences in tradability of goods across sectors as well as the ongoing structural change, we examine whether trade openness has had a differential impact on TFP growth of the three main sectors of an economy. While the positive impact of openness on TFP growth for the aggregate economy is confirmed, openness has had no appreciable impact on the growth of TFP in the agricultural and industrial sectors. We find that the positive effect of openness on TFP growth for the economy as a whole was mostly due to the positive relationship between the two variables for the services sector. Further, we conclude that the lack of a general consensus in past studies could be due to their neglect of structural change and temporal factors when analyzing the trade-TFP nexus.     

经济结构变化和经济增长

本文试图从生产技术角度构建一个多部门的经济增长模型，同时容纳Kuznets事实和Kaldor事实。模型经济由最终部门和多个中间部门组成，最终产品由各中间产品以CES函数形式生产。各中间部门的技术增长率不同，而这种差异引起经济结构变化，并导致中间产品的相对价格变化，进而决定各中间部门之间要素流动和产值相对份额变动。最终产品的技术增长率为各中间部门的技术增长率加权平均和，并随经济增长单方向变动，变动方向与中间产品之间的替代弹性大小相关。     

Appropriate technology assessment: A note on policy considerations

This paper summarizes various positions on appropriate technology and its relation to technological dependence, and certain contradictions within the concept are pointed out. An alternative approach to policy questions in appropriate technology assessment and independence is then proposed using a framework involving three economic sectors—the consumer goods sector, capital goods sector, and technological change sector.     

Monopoly,intermediate goods and the pure theory of international trade

Conclusion In a model with two traded good sectors between which intersectoral flows of intermediate goods are allowed and with a monopolized non-traded good sector, the wage rate in terms of two traded goods increases and the rental of capital in terms of two traded goods decreases when the price of relatively more labor intensive traded good sector increases, though nothing definite can be said about the direction of change in the wage rate and rental in terms of the non-traded good. When prices of traded goods are kept constant and labor and/or capital increase(s), output of the non-traded good sector increases provided that the non-traded good is not inferior, having income elasticity of demand less than unity. The factor intensity condition for the traded goods is in general not sufficient for the validity of the Rybczynski theorem to hold with respect to net outputs of the traded goods. We have derived sufficient conditions for the magnification effect to be observed with respect to net outputs of the traded good sectors. Specifically, we have shown that the factor intensity condition (23) is sufficient for the magnification effect to prevail when only labor increases.     

A two-sector Kaleckian model of growth and distribution with endogenous productivity dynamics

This study extends a two-sector Kaleckian model of output growth and income distribution by incorporating endogenous labour productivity growth. The model is composed of investment goods and consumption goods production sectors. The impact of a change in wage and profit shares on capacity utilisation and output growth rates at the sectoral and aggregate levels are identified. The study reveals short-run cyclical capacity utilisation rates and productivity growth dynamics. Even if the short-run steady state is stable, the capital accumulation rate in the consumption goods sector must decrease more than that in the investment sector for long-run stability. When simultaneous rises in profit shares in both the sectors affect long-run aggregate economic growth differently at a steady state, the distributional interests between the same class in different sectors may hamper the long-run economic growth. A policy message is that the effect of income distribution on industrial output growth is not always beneficial. These phenomena are specific to two-sector models and cannot be observed when using conventional aggregate growth models.     

经济结构变化和经济增长

本文试图从生产技术角度构建一个多部门的经济增长模型,同时容纳Kuznets事实和Kaldor事实。模型经济由最终部门和多个中间部门组成,最终产品由各中间产品以CES函数形式生产。各中间部门的技术增长率不同,而这种差异引起经济结构变化,并导致中间产品的相对价格变化,进而决定各中间部门之间要素流动和产值相对份额变动。最终产品的技术增长率为各中间部门的技术增长率加权平均和,并随经济增长单方向变动,变动方向与中间产品之间的替代弹性大小相关。     

外部性与重工业优先发展

In the framework of a dynamic general equilibrium model, this paper studies how vertical externalities affect the development of heavy industry in a developing economy. The model is comprised of an intermediate and a consumer product sector. The production of both types of goods has pecuniary externalities as they are featured by increasing return to scale. However, the production of an intermediate product has an additional advantage to have externalities through its technological linkage with the production of consumer goods. This is related to the nature of the roundabout production of consumer goods: a larger number of intermediate products lead to higher productivity in the production of consumer goods than do more inputs of a fixed number of intermediate products. Therefore, private investment in the intermediate sector is below the social optimal level. Government subsidies can restore the economy to the social optimum, but they become less needed as the consumer sector grows larger and the advantage of the intermediate good sector diminishes. __________ Translated from Nankai Jingji Yanjiu 南开经济研究 (Nankai Economic Studies), 2007, (2): 3–19     

Legal Institutions, Sectoral Heterogeneity, and Economic Development

Poor countries have lower PPP-adjusted investment rates and face higher relative prices of investment goods. It has been suggested that this happens either because these countries have a relatively lower TFP in industries producing capital goods or because they are subject to greater investment distortions. This paper provides a micro-foundation for the cross-country dispersion in investment distortions. We first document that firms producing capital goods face a higher level of idiosyncratic risk than their counterparts producing consumption goods. In a model of capital accumulation where the protection of investors' rights is incomplete, this difference in risk induces a wedge between the returns on investment in the two sectors. The wedge is bigger, the poorer the investor protection. In turn, this implies that countries endowed with weaker institutions face higher relative prices of investment goods, invest a lower fraction of their income, and end up being poorer. We find that our mechanism may be quantitatively important.     

全要素生产率、人民币汇率与中国贸易收支——基于跨期最优选择理论的实证研究

文章首先以跨期最优分析框架为基础建立以中国贸易收支为研究对象的理论模型,然后基于中国1999-2009年省际面板数据,运用面板FMOLS估计方法,从全国和地区两个层面对中国全要素生产率、人民币实际汇率与中国贸易收支的关系展开实证分析。研究表明,中国贸易部门内资企业和外资企业的全要素生产率提升均对中国实际贸易余额增长产生了正面影响,其中东部地区的促进作用最为强劲;中国非贸易部门全要素生产率与其实际贸易余额负相关,其中东部和中部地区非贸易部门全要素生产率提升会显著减少该地区的实际贸易差额;人民币实际有效汇率提升对中国实际贸易收支具有显著的负面影响,并按照东部、中部和西部地区依次加重。根据上述分析结果,文章提出了调节中国贸易收支的相关政策建议。     

Sectoral Capital–Labor Ratios and Total Factor Productivity: Evidence from Asia

This paper examines the relationship between sectoral capital–labor ratios and total factor productivity (TFP) for six Asian economies in the context of the Balassa–Samuelson model. A strong prediction of the model is that the capital–labor ratios in both the traded‐ and nontraded‐goods sectors depend on the TFP in the traded‐goods sector. Both single‐equation and panel cointegration tests support this implication of the model.