Heterogeneity and fine wine prices: application of the quantile regression approach

ABSTRACT

This study addresses the price heterogeneity of the five first growths of Bordeaux. We apply the quantile regression (QR) approach with market segmentation based on wine bottle price quantiles. We compute the hedonic price of wine attributes for various price segments in the market. This approach is applied to a major dataset comprising approximately 50,000 transactions over the 2003–2017 period. The findings indicate that the relative hedonic prices of several wine attributes differ significantly among deciles. The implications of our results are manifold. Vintage and Parker grades have a strong impact on the variation in wine prices, and there is a hierarchy among the five first growths of Bordeaux. There is also a premium commanded by the reputation and experience of an auction house. Since the financial crisis of 2012–2013, investors have considered that the five first growths are overrated, save for the most expensive wines; for those most expensive ones, investors prefer scarcity to liquidity. These results are of import to several actors in the fine wine market: investors, for example, could use the findings herein to better diversify their wine portfolio, while auction houses could better anticipate their future sales based on consumers’ expectation.     

Dynamics of fine wine and asset prices: evidence from short- and long-run co-movements

This article examines short- and long-term price linkages among the majority of fine wine and equity markets over the period of 2003 to 2012. We do not consider the price index (LIV-EX 100 or 500), as is typically undertaken in previous studies, but rather examine the auction price series of the world’s most traded wine-vintage pairs (5 Bordeaux first growth, 8 Bordeaux second growth, 5 Burgundy, 3 Rhone, 4 Italian, 5 Californian, 1 Australian and 1 Portuguese). A global equity index is also included using the Morgan Stanley Capital International World. Cointegration procedures, the Granger non-causality test, and ECM are used to analyse short- and long-run relationships among these markets. The results indicate a strong effect of financial markets on wine prices and short-term causality for certain wines. Moreover, the findings indicate short-run causality between the wines themselves, revealing a leader (exogenous) or follower (endogenous) status of certain fine wines in price dynamics, and also long-run causality for endogenous wines. This approach is relevant to portfolio diversification strategies and allows price movements to be anticipated more accurately than using an index approach.     

Commodity prices and related equity prices

This paper shows that commodity‐sensitive stock price indices have strong power in predicting nominal and real commodity prices at short horizons (one‐month‐ahead predictions) using both in‐ and out‐of‐sample tests. The forecasts based on commodity‐sensitive stock price indices are able to significantly outperform naïve no‐change forecasts. For example, the one‐month‐ahead forecasts for nominal commodity prices reduce the mean squared prediction error by between 1.5% (for natural gas prices) and 20% (for copper prices). Moreover, the one‐month‐ahead directional forecast is found to perform significantly better than a 50:50 coin toss. As stock prices are not subject to revision, the proposed variable, which reflects timely and readily available market information, can potentially be a valuable predictor and thereby help to improve the accuracy of commodity price forecasts.     

Key market values for bottled wine in an emerging market: product attributes or business strategy?

ABSTRACT

This article focuses on the emerging bottled Chilean red wine market and studies the main determinants of the consumer price of wine sold on the domestic market. A hedonic price function was estimated for a sample of 810 wines using a quantile regression (QR) model. The database contains three variable groups to explain price: objective variables (national, international and vine quality designations), subjective variables (wine score) and business strategies used by wine producers. Results show that some objective variables have a greater impact on price than the wine score (a subjective variable) and business strategies, which vary for each quartile of prices analysed. Finally, this information will allow companies to design and implement marketing strategies to inform the consumer about the importance of some variables in the price of their product.     

Predicting the Quality of an Unborn Grange*

In a recent paper Ashenfelter, Ashmore and Lalonde found they could explain the variation in the price (and quality) of Bordeaux vintages by a combination of age, temperature and rainfall. The same ideas are applied here to Grange Hermitage, Australia's premier wine. Weather variation is less important than in Bordeaux. However, some remarkably robust results are obtained: a ‘quality index’ for Grange is derived, predictions about still unreleased vintages are made, the Australian regression coefficients work well in the Bordeaux equation, and issues relating to market efficiency in the pricing of young wines are examined     

Simultaneity,Forecasting and Profits in London Copper Futures

Previous research on price determination for non‐ferrous metals at the London Metal Exchange (LME) suffers from three limitations: first it has employed single equation methods only, which cannot explain the simultaneous determination of spot and futures prices; second, by focusing on current and lagged prices, previous research does not analyse the effect on price determination of critical variables such as expectations, consumption and inventories; third, the outcome of prior research regarding market efficiency is ambiguous. This paper, which addresses these issues, develops a simultaneous model of the copper market at the LME, with representation of the activities of hedgers, speculators and consumers. This model produces post‐sample forecasts of the spot price which outperform conventional benchmarks, thus providing evidence against the efficient market hypothesis. Model‐derived forecasts are employed as the foundation of a trading program which produces risk‐adjusted profits (net of commission costs) for holding periods of one week and one month, thus fulfilling the ‘sufficient condition’ for market inefficiency. This study, therefore, provides new insights into price determination on the LME copper market, and resolves the ambiguity of previous research regarding the efficiency of that market. This is the first application of the model forecasting approach to the question of performance of the market for copper.     

Estimation of a hedonic price equation for Burgundy wine

A hedonic price equation and two jury grade equations are estimated for Burgundy wine. The approach is the same as in an earlier Bordeaux wine paper (Combris et al., 1997). The data come from an experimental study that is very similar to the study on Bordeaux wines. The results for the two wine-growing regions are compared and discussed.     

Determinants of retail wine prices: evidence from Cyprus

This study uses a detailed panel dataset for the Cyprus wine market and a fixed effects simultaneous equations model specification to investigate retail wine price determinants. Our results show that producers’ pricing policies tend to be influenced more by the level of market concentration in the wine and retail industries than by competitors’ price movements. We propose a sales response model to identify the impact of marketing drivers on sales. Wine consumption in Cyprus is unit elastic, but the impact of competitive prices and retail distribution coverage on sales is small.     

An analysis of EU wine trade: A gravity model approach

In this research study, a gravity model approach was used in order to analyze the main factors affecting the trade flows of wine in the EU. The empirical model was applied using data for the first twelve EU countries for the period 1989–97. It has been clearly shown in the empirical literature that gravity models can be successfully applied to a single commodity market. The present study utilized pooled cross-sectional and time series data in a one-way fixed effects model that accounted for country-pair heterogeneity. The results revealed that wine trade was positively influenced by an increase in GDP per capita, since greater income promotes trade. The remoteness of one country from another influenced exports positively and imports negatively, and the quantities traded did not prove to be very sensitive to wine prices. The depreciation of EU currencies and the high production of wine in the EU increased exports and reduced imports, while EU integration enhanced trade among members.     

The Effects of Subject Pool and Design Experience on Rationality in Experimental Asset Markets

Empirical evidence suggests that prices do not always reflect fundamental values and individual behavior is often inconsistent with rational expectations theory. We report the results of fourteen experimental asset markets designed to examine whether the interactive effect of subject pool and design experience (i.e., previous experience in a market under identical conditions) tempers price bubbles and improves forecasting ability. Our main findings are: 1) price run-ups are modest and dissipate quickly when traders are knowledgeable about financial markets and have participated in a previous market under identical conditions; 2) price bubbles moderate quickly when only a subset of traders are knowledgeable and experienced; 3) the heterogeneity of expectations about price changes is smaller in markets with knowledgeable and experienced traders, even if such traders only represent a subset of the market; and 4) individual forecasts of prices are not consistent with the predictions of the rational expectations model in any market, although absolute forecast errors are smaller for subjects who are knowledgeable of financial markets and for those subjects who have participated in a previous market. In sum, our findings suggest that markets populated by at least a subset of knowledgeable and experienced traders behave rationally, even though average individual behavior can be characterized as irrational.     

Home bias, distribution services and determinants of real exchange rates

This paper examines empirically how exogenous changes in the terms of trade affect the real exchange rate through the relative price of traded goods with Canada–US data. The relative price of traded goods is constructed using prices at the dock and retail prices. The first measure emphasizes the importance of home bias in consumption of traded goods. The second measure highlights the importance of distribution services required for consumption of traded goods. It is found that terms of trade shocks affect the relative price of traded goods using both measures. A possible interpretation of empirical findings is that home bias and distribution services are important for understanding the relative price of traded goods.     

The forecasting approach to efficiency in the wool market

This paper develops and presents estimates of a simultaneous equations model of the Australian wool market, the world's largest producer and exporter of fine wool. The model contains functional relationships for unhedged inventories, consumption of raw wool, and the activities of both hedgers and speculators in wool futures. Expectations are represented by the adaptive hypothesis. This model extends the work of Leuthold and Hartmann (1979) and Leuthold and Garcia (1988) by including expectations in the spot-futures model, and that of Goss and Giles (1986) by including composite equations for hedger-speculators, extending the expectations hypothesis to the consumption equation, and by using the model to test the efficient markets hypothesis. Wald tests and likelihood ratio tests for unit roots in wool cash prices are conducted and in no case can the hypothesis of a single unit root be rejected. Estimation is by three stage least squares, with correction for first order serial correlation. The model provides good intra- and post-sample forecasts of most variables, especially of unhedged inventories and consumption of wool, both important spot market relationships. The model-derived forecast of the spot price is inferior to the forecast implicit in the futures price, although a compositive predictor clearly outperforms the futures price as an anticipation of subsequent cash prices. Nevertheless, it is suggested that the efficient markets hypothesis should not be rejected, because there is evidence that futures market agents are learning to use the information contained in the model.     

Coordination and correlation in Markov rational belief equilibria

Summary This paper studies the effect of correlation in the rational beliefs of agents on the volatility of asset prices. We use the technique of generating variables to study stable and non-stationary processes needed to characterize rational beliefs. We then examine how the stochastic interaction among such variables affects the behavior of a wide class of Rational Belief Equilibria (RBE). The paper demonstrates how to construct a consistent price state space and then shows the existence of RBE for any economy for which such price state space is constructed. Next, the results are used to study the volatility of asset prices via numerical simulation of a two agents model. If beliefs of agents are uniformly dispersed and independent, we would expect heterogeneity of beliefs to have a limited impact on the fluctuations of asset prices. On the other hand, our results show that correlation across agents can have a complex and dramatic effect on the volatility of prices and thus can be the dominant factor in the fluctuation of asset prices. The mechanism generating this effect works through the clustering of beliefs in states of different levels of agreement. In states of agreement the conditional forecasts of the agents tend to fluctuatetogether inducing more volatile asset prices. In states of disagreement the conditional forecasts fluctuatein diverse directions tending to cancel each other's effect on market demand and resulting in reduced price volatility.This research was supported, in part, by the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei of Milan, Italy, and by the Research Incentive Fund of Stanford University. The authors thank Carsten K. Nielsen and Ho-Mou Wu for valuable discussions on an earlier draft. Carsten K. Nielsen also made an important contribution to the development of Section 3.     

Price and information disclosure in the private art market: A signalling game

In this paper, we model private art market agents’ strategic interactions in presence of two types of asymmetric information, about artwork quality and buyer’s knowledge, assuming the seller does not know how informed is the buyer while the buyer does not know the quality of the artwork before purchase. If the seller can choose either a high or a low price and the buyer can signal his type to the seller, we identify the conditions for both equilibria with pooling buyer signalling strategy and with separating strategy, as well as conditions for equilibria where the seller fixes the price according to the actual quality and where he posts prices trying to take advantage of buyer’s limited information. Finally, we identify the condition for the emergence of a “counter-lemon” result, where low-quality artworks and uninformed collectors exit the market, suggesting that seller uncertainty does not directly benefit the buyers, but it can impact the quality traded in the market.     

Do Price Barriers Exist in the European Carbon Market?

It is generally thought that psychological prices in markets primarily traded by professional participants should play a limited role. The authors investigate the existence of key reference points in the European Carbon Market, which can be considered as a market with highly qualified stakeholders. They document the presence of key levels and barrier bands around European Union Allowances (EUA) prices. It appears that traders tend to consider these price levels as resistances in upward movements and as supports in downward movements. Furthermore, the authors have observed that the existence of price barriers affects both return and volume dynamics. Therefore, the results indicate that there exist certain EUA prices that do, in fact, modify the behavior of European Carbon Market participants.     

Optimal Policy with Tradable and Bankable Pollution Permits: Taking the Market Microstructure into Account

This paper analyzes how the way emission permits are traded—their market microstructure—affects the optimal policy to be adopted by the environmental agency. The microstructure used is one of a quote driven market type, which characterizes many financial markets. Market makers act as intermediaries for trading the permits by setting an ask price and a bid price. The possibility of bank permits is also introduced in our dynamic two‐period model. We consider two models whether the market makers are perfectly informed about the technology of the producers or not. When the market makers have complete information, the equilibrium price of permits is the same as if the market is walrasian. When they are imperfectly informed, they may set a positive spread between bid and ask permit prices, which creates some inefficiency as the marginal abatement costs of polluters do not equalize. By allowing more flexibility in the use of the permits, banking may reduce the spread. Moreover, it may introduce price rigidities due to intertemporal arbitrage. In this framework, the circumstances under which banking should be allowed or not depend crucially on the evolution of the marginal willingness to pay for the environment.     

On the predictive power of ARJI volatility forecasts for Bitcoin

Motivated by the recent literature on cryptocurrency volatility dynamics, this paper adopts the ARJI, GARCH, EGARCH, and CGARCH models to explore their capabilities to make out-of-sample volatility forecasts for Bitcoin returns over a daily horizon from 2013 to 2018. The empirical results indicate that the ARJI jump model can cope with the extreme price movements of Bitcoin, showing comparatively superior in-sample goodness-of-fit, as well as out-of-sample predictive performance. However, due to the excessive volatility swings on the cryptocurrency market, the realized volatility of Bitcoin prices is only marginally explained by the GARCH genre of employed models.     

The forward pricing function of industrial metal futures – evidence from cointegration and smooth transition regression analysis

The prices of internationally traded metals have experienced wild swings and increased volatility in recent years. The relationship between spot and futures prices is an important topic in this context, as the current period’s price of a futures contract should be an unbiased estimator of next period’s spot price under the joint assumption of risk neutrality and rationality. Taking as a basis data from the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index, which uses metals traded on the London Metal Exchange and US exchanges, this study adopts nonlinear smooth transition models to analyze whether the forward spread is a leading indicator of future spot price movements. Our findings suggest that such a price discovery function can in most cases only be identified in periods of low volatility or small previous spreads. Moreover, the underlying dynamics are captured best by the use of a logistic transition function.     

Semiparametric versus parametric hedonic wine price models: an empirical investigation

In this article, we conduct formal statistical tests to compare a semiparametric hedonic wine price model with its parametric counterpart using a Canadian data set. The relevant test results turn out to be overwhelmingly in favour of the semiparametric specification. The estimated semiparametric model also provides clear evidence of nonlinearity between wine prices and quality when other wine attributes are controlled for.     

Modelling prices and the reputation of individual named wines

This article develops empirical models to assess the relation between the reputation of an individual named wine and its price. Unrestricted and polynomial distributed lag models are used to assess the impact of past expert quality ratings on the prices of Australian premium wines. Results point to the practical unimportance of current wine quality scores impacting prices and suggest that quality score lag effects up to six years may be important. The largest individual lagged impact of quality on price is estimated to occur at approximately two years, and prices are estimated to increase by more than 10% over six years for a one-point quality score increase. A procedure for identifying potential wine price bargains based on a comparison of price predictions from estimated wine reputation and current quality measures is illustrated. The implications of the findings for wine producers are also discussed.