Nonlinear dynamics and the exports–output growth nexus

The untested assumption of a linear relationship between exports and output growth in previous empirical investigations may lead to invalid inference if the actual relationship is nonlinear. This paper re-examines the relationship between exports and economic growth in five industrialized economies (Canada, Italy, Japan, UK, and the US) with emphasis on the effect of nonlinearities on the causal relationships. Results from linearity tests show that nonlinearities do exist in the dynamic relationship between exports and GDP growth. Nonlinear smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) model results suggest that nonlinear Granger causality flows from exports to output growth and vice versa. Predictive accuracy tests further confirm the appropriateness of the nonlinear models over the linear model specification.     

The dynamics of retirement saving — theory and reality

Pension problems and reforms are in the foreground of public interest and political action in many countries, yet economic theory offers inadequate support for finding viable solutions, because it is heavily loaded with simplifying concepts and unrealistic assumptions. These concepts and assumptions are briefly summarized in Chapter 1, while a generalized framework based on them is presented in Chapter 2. The basic stationary assumption is then relaxed in Chapter 3 what results in the conclusion that a profound, not just technical, but conceptual innovation is required. Chapter 4 outlines a few major issues and concepts for a more realistic pension economics. A summary is given in Chapter 5.     

Seasonal Mackey–Glass–GARCH process and short-term dynamics

The aim of this article is the study of complex structures which are behind the short-term predictability of stock returns series. In this regard, we employ a seasonal version of the Mackey–Glass–GARCH(p,q) model, initially proposed by Kyrtsou and Terraza (Computat Econ 21:257–276, 2003) and generalized by Kyrtsou (Int J Bifurcat Chaos 15(10):3391–3394, 2005). To unveil short or long memory components and non-linear structures in the French Stock Exchange (CAC40) returns series, we apply the test of Geweke and Porter-Hudak (J Time Ser Anal 4:221–238, 1983), the Brock et al. (Econom Rev 15:197–235, 1996) and Dechert (An application of chaos theory to stochastic and deterministic observations. Working paper, University of Houston, 1995) tests, the correlation-dimension method of Grassberger and Procaccia (Phys 9D:189–208, 1983), the Lyapunov exponents method of Gençay and Dechert (Phys D 59:142–157, 1992), and the Recurrence quantification analysis introduced by Webber and Zbilut (J Appl Physiol 76:965–973, 1994). As a confirmation procedure of the dynamics generating future movements in CAC40, we perform forecast with the use of a seasonal Mackey–Glass–GARCH(1,1) model. The interest of the forecasting exercise is found in the inclusion of high-dimensional non-linearities in the mean equation of returns.     

Do dynamics and heterogeneity in panel data models matter?

This article investigates empirically the determinants of central banks’ reserve holdings for a large panel data set of developing and transition countries covering the period from 1975 to 2003. It estimates both a static and a dynamic relationship and applies estimators for homogeneous and heterogeneous panel data. Thereby, it examines the extent to which conclusions of panel data studies on the determinants of international reserve holdings are robust to the inclusion of dynamics as well as to the consideration of heterogeneity across countries. The results show that the neglect of dynamics and heterogeneity in country behaviour may lead to misleading inferences. Independently of the chosen estimation method, the findings suggest that trade openness and external debt are robust determinants of the level of reserves. Central banks take precautionary measures against the downside of the increasing international economic integration.     

Price and nominal wage Phillips curves and the dynamics of distribution in Japan†

This study estimates two types of Phillips curves – the price Phillips curve and nominal wage Phillips curve – for the Japanese economy and analyses the institutional structure of the dynamics of effective demand and income distribution in each period from 1977 to 2007. The estimated results allow us to make the following three findings. First, the Japanese economy was a profit-led regime and a counter-cyclical wage share regime. The combination of regimes can make the dynamics of effective demand and income distribution unstable. Second, the dynamics of price and nominal wage do not reflect each other in Japan by labour–management cooperation. Finally, after 1997, the distributive regime in Japan switched from a counter-cyclical wage share to a pro-cyclical wage share regime because Japanese firms quickened their speeds of employment adjustment. As a result, the dynamics of effective demand and income distribution were stabilised.     

Learning,experience and the dynamics of north–south Trade and technology transfer

This paper examines the dynamics of learning and experience that underlie technology transfer using a North-South trade model with a continuum of goods. Since North is historically more experienced than South, it initially produces the most advanced goods and pays higher wages. Whenever there is a market-driven transfer of technology and production over time, there will be some wage convergence as South gradually gains experience. Nevertheless, wage inequality must persist in the steady state. Product innovation typically increases steady-state wage inequality because new goods are produced in North, and North ultimately learns than South. [F12, O19]     

Structural change and ‘new facts’ in Pantaleoni's non-equilibrium dynamics

The goal of this paper is to investigate Maffeo Pantaleoni's early 20th century dynamic theory, and, in particular, to highlight the novelty of his notion of second-kind dynamics. The main thesis is that Pantaleoni employed the notion to build a truly original, non-orthodox disequilibrium dynamic theory capable of accounting for the dynamic and structural instability of the economic system as well as for the ‘true’ uncertainty affecting decision-making processes.     

Population dynamics and utilitarian criteria in the Lucas–Uzawa Model

This paper introduces population growth in the Uzawa–Lucas model, analyzing the implications of the choice of the welfare criterion on the model's outcome. Traditional growth theory assumes population growth to be exponential, but this is not a realistic assumption (see Brida and Accinelli, 2007). We model exogenous population change by a generic function of population size. We show that a unique non-trivial equilibrium exists and the economy converges towards it along a saddle path, independently of population dynamics. What is affected by the type of population dynamics is the dimension of the stable manifold, which can be one or two, and when the equilibrium is reached, which can happen in finite time or asymptotically. Moreover, we show that the choice of the utilitarian criterion will be irrelevant on the equilibrium of the model, if the steady state growth rate of population is null, as in the case of logistic population growth. Then, we show that a closed-form solution for the transitional dynamics of the economy (both in the case population dynamics is deterministic and stochastic) can be found for a certain parameter restriction.     

Regional distribution and dynamics of human capital in China 1985–2014

This study investigates the regional distribution and dynamics of human capital in China. We develop a new comprehensive human capital measure based on the Jorgenson-Fraumeni (J-F) lifetime income framework, in addition to using the traditional education-based human capital measures. We find that the new J-F human capital measure reflects more closely the regional economic disparity than the education-based measures. We also conduct a Divisia decomposition analysis to investigate the contributions of different factors to the quantity and quality growth of human capital and to regional disparity. Our results show that the regional human capital gaps in China are enlarging in general. Education and urbanization contribute most to human capital growth, while population aging shows a strong negative effect. Our estimates create a new provincial level human capital panel dataset from 1985 to 2014, which is useful for empirical work and policy analysis.     

Verdoorn’s law and productivity dynamics: An empirical investigation into the demand and supply approaches

According to Verdoorn’s law, productivity growth is endogenous to output growth, due to the existence of increasing returns to scale, broadly defined. Such an idea is at the root of both the endogenous growth theory and the Kaldorian approach. While in Kaldor’s view, a country’s growth is demand-driven, in the endogenous growth theory, growth is determined by the growth of the factors of production and hence growth is supply-constrained. This article empirically tests both assumptions for Verdoorn’s law by using a dynamic panel of manufacturing industries for seventy countries at different stages of development for the years between 1963 and 2009. In order to distinguish between these approaches, two different specifications are estimated where the growth of output and the supply of factors of production are instrumentalized by system generalized method of moments (GMM)estimators. The results show that, if it is assumed that the growth rates of countries are demand-driven, a faster growth of output increases productivity growth due to the existence of increasing returns. Alternatively, if it is assumed that output growth is driven by the growth of the supply of the factors of production, it is not possible to conclude that productivity growth is induced by output growth.     

Unemployment and output dynamics in CIS countries: Okun’s law revisited

Okun’s law is a well-known relationship between the change in the unemployment rate and output growth. The main objective of this article is to provide a rigorous econometric analysis of Okun’s law for several CIS countries using different models and theoretically justified econometric methods. The traditional approach to Okun’s law estimation using OLS regressions does not account for possible endogeneity of regressors and the implied inconsistency of the estimates obtained. These problems point out to incorrectness of applications of the standard OLS estimation techniques. Our study addresses these issues by using econometrically justified instrumental variable regression methods. The article provides the results and discussions on practical use of Okun’s relationships for evaluation of average effects of economic growth on the unemployment rate, and vice versa; importance of accounting for confidence intervals in applications of Okun’s models to economic development analysis and cross-country comparisons and evaluation of effects of crises and other structural shocks on the economies considered. We also discuss in detail the results of formal econometric tests and economic motivation for validity of instrumental variables used in the study. The formal econometric tests, together with economic arguments, allow us to determine the most appropriate Okun-type models for each of the CIS countries under consideration.     

The dynamics of Greek public debt – evidence from simultaneous and structural VAR models

The goal of the present article was to investigate not only the dynamics of the Greek public debt, but also the appropriate measures required for achieving fiscal consolidation. The empirical estimation is carried out using a macroeconomic data set spanning the period 1980–2008 and both the three-stage least squares (3SLS) methodological approach on a theoretical model and the structural VAR methodology to perform forecast tests and to calibrate the future paths of the public debt variable up to 2020. The results suggest that only a restrictive fiscal policy that simultaneously increases government revenues and reduces government expenditure could permit the country to achieve debt sustainability. The results also suggest that debt sustainability can be achieved faster when tax revenue policies are intensified. The results are expected to have important implications to policymakers for designing effective macroeconomic policy in terms of achieving sustainable levels of public debt.     

Output dynamics,flow equilibria and structural change—A prolegomenon to evolutionary macroeconomics

In an evolutionary approach to macroeconomics, the market disequilibrium dynamics resulting from structural change need to be properly represented at the aggregate level. As suggested by the late F.A. Hayek, a suitable equilibrium concept required to this end as a frame of reference, is that of a flow equilibrium. The paper explores the corresponding flow dynamics that draw attention to variables not usually considered in macroeconomic theorizing. Using statistical estimates for these new variables for the West German manufacturing sector during the German unification process allows some important new insights on the relationships between structural change and macroeconomic performance.

The 2007–2009 financial crisis: changing market dynamics and the impact of credit supply and aggregate demand sensitivity

This article singles out the determinants of changes in US firms’ systematic risk and idiosyncratic return induced by the 2007–2009 financial crisis. After establishing that systematic risk changes during the crisis, the results show that higher operational and financial leverage coincide with an increase in systematic risk, while high cash availability is associated with a decrease in systematic risk. The crisis-induced idiosyncratic return worsens with increasing financial leverage, higher sensitivity to aggregate demand shocks and banking sector problems, and lower operational leverage. Additional results show that the aforementioned variables have economically large effects on firm performance during the crisis.     

On “badly behaved” dynamics

Adaptive (path dependent) processes of growth modeled by urn schemes are important for several fields of applications: biology, physics, chemistry, economics. In this paper we present a general introduction to urn schemes, together with some new results. We review the studies that have been done in the technological dynamics by means of such schemes. Also several other domains of economic dynamics are analysed by the same machinery and its new modifications allowing to tackle non-homogeneity of the phase space. We demonstrate the phenomena of multiple equilibria, different vonvergence rates for different limit patterns, locally positive and locally negative feedbacks, limit behavior associated with non-homogeneity of economic environment where producers (firms) are operating. It is also shown that the above urn processes represent a natural and convenient stochastic replicator dynamics which can be used in evolutionary games.     

Environmental efficiency and labour productivity: Trade-off or joint dynamics? A theoretical investigation and empirical evidence from Italy using NAMEA

In this paper we test an adapted EKC hypothesis to verify the relationship between ‘environmental efficiency’ (namely emissions per unit of value added) and labour productivity (value added per employee). We exploit NAMEA data on Italy for 29 sector branches and 6 categories of air emissions for the period 1991-2001. We employ data on capital stock and trade openness to test the robustness of our results.On the basis of the theoretical and empirical analyses focusing on innovation, firm performances and environmental externalities, we would expect a positive correlation between environmental efficiency and labour productivity — a negative correlation between the emissions intensity of value added and labour productivity — which departs from the conventional mainstream view. The hypothesis tested is a critical one within the longstanding debate on the potential trade-off or complementarity between environmental preservation and economic performance, which is strictly associated with the role of technological innovation. We find that for most air emission categories there is a positive relationship between labour productivity and environmental efficiency. Labour productivity dynamics, then, seem to be complementary to a decreasing emissions intensity in the production process. Taking a disaggregate sector perspective, we show that the macro-aggregate evidence is driven by sector dynamics in a non-homogenous way across pollutants. Services tend always to show a ‘complementary’ relationship, while industry seems to be associated with inverted U-shape dynamics for greenhouse gases and nitrogen oxides. This is in line with our expectations. In any case, EKC shapes appear to drive such productivity links towards complementarity. The extent to which this evidence derives from endogenous market forces, industrial and structural change, and policy effects is discussed by taking an evolutionary perspective to innovation and by referring to impure public goods arguments.     

Stochastic technology shocks in an extended Uzawa–Lucas model: closed-form solution and long-run dynamics

We add stochastic technological progress, modelled as a geometric Brownian motion with drift, to an augmented Uzawa–Lucas growth model. Under a particular combination of parameters we derive a closed form solution to the model and analytical expressions which show that uncertainty reduces the optimal levels of consumption and increases the proportion of human capital devoted to producing new human capital.     

Black and official exchange rates in Morocco: an analysis of their long-run behaviour and short-run dynamics (1974–1992)

Using Vector Error-Correction (VEC) model estimation on monthly data from Morocco for the period January 1974 to December 1992, this article tests the hypothesis that there is a long-run stable relationship between the official and the black-market exchange rates for US dollars. We also examine the short-run dynamics in the relationship between the two markets. The econometric results indicate that the two exchange rates are cointegrated. Furthermore, we reject weak exogeneity in the case of the official exchange rate, but fail to reject it in the case of the black-market rate. Granger causality tests show that the black-market rate causes the official exchange rate. The results seem to support the efficiency hypothesis, suggesting that participants in the black-market are able to anticipate changes in the official exchange rate. The findings also suggest that Morocco's decision (in January 1993) to introduce only current account convertibility and keep controls on capital accounts was wise.     

Government debt dynamics and the global financial crisis: Has anything changed in the EA12?

This paper seeks to shed light on possible changes in the government debt dynamics for the first 12 euro area countries. Structural breaks are present around the global financial crisis for most countries, but not for Germany and France, the two core countries in the euro area. The properties of the government debt dynamics differ markedly across the countries receiving bailouts.     

Human population dynamics revisited with the logistic model: how much can be modeled and predicted?

"We revive the logistic model, which was tested and found wanting in early-20th-century studies of aggregate human populations, and apply it instead to life expectancy (death) and fertility (birth)....For death...the logistic portrays the situation crisply. Human life expectancy is reaching the culmination of a two-hundred year-process that forestalls death until about 80 for men and the mid 80s for women. No breakthroughs in longevity are in sight unless genetic engineering comes to help. For birth, the logistic covers quantitatively its actual morphology. However, because we have not been able to model this essential parameter in a predictive way over long periods, we cannot say whether the future of human population is runaway growth or slow implosion...From a niche point of view, resources are the limits to numbers, and access to resources depends on technologies. The logistic makes clear that for homo faber, the limits to numbers keep shifting. These moving edges may most confound forecasting the long-run size of humanity."