Lachmann and the wilderness: On Lachmann's radical subjectivism

Abstract

This paper deals with the question why in the 1940s and 1950s Ludwig Lachmann (1906–1990) failed to revive Austrian economics. Lake Keynes and Hayek, Lachmann pointed out that expectations, and hence knowledge, are important determinants of (cyclical fluctuations in) investment and economic activity. He thereby emphasized that the process of knowledge acquisition is indeterminate and open‐ended. This indeterminateness is difficult to reconcile with neoclassical attempts to provide economics with internally consistent microfoundations. This fundamental difference between his and the neoclassical research agenda explains Lachmann's failure to revive Austrian economics.     

Sraffa,Keynes and 'The Years of High Theory'

This paper argues that Shackle's interpretation of 'the years of high theory' is flawed. Shackle (1967) sees Sraffa's critique of the Marshallian theory of value only as a step in the development of the theory of imperfect competition. In the same vein, Shackle reduces the message of Keynes's General Theory to the claim that unemployment results from the existence of uncertainty and irrational expectations. Thus, Shackle leaves open the possibility that both Sraffa's critique of Marshall and Keynes's theory of effective demand do not question the internal coherence of neoclassical theory, but instead merely assert that market imperfections render it irrelevant for the analysis of the real world. This paper argues, in contrast, that the theories of Sraffa and Keynes should be interpreted as radical departures from marginalism, and represent a return to the surplus approach of classical political economy.     

Economic policy as expectations management: Keynes’ and Friedman's complementary approaches1

We investigate how Keynes and Friedman, respectively, address the issue of the disequilibria at stake in a monetary economy through a shared concern for the formation of expectations. We show that Keynes was interested in the coordination of long-term expectations regarding non-monetary assets prospective yields, while Friedman focused on the adaptation of short-term nominal expectations. Regarding the remedies to these disequilibria, both economists called for devices that aim to stabilise market expectations. As a direct outcome, Keynes designed policies that aim to stabilise the long-term state of expectations while Friedman basically aimed at the acceleration of the competitive adjustment process.     

Effective Demand: Securing the Foundations

Abstract

This paper is one of three contributions to a symposium commenting on papers previously published by the other authors. Allain (Allain, O. (2009) Effective demand and short-term adjustments in the General Theory, Review of Political Economy, 21, pp. 1–22) argues that Keynes elides a distinction between aggregate demand and global expenditure that is necessary to explain the formation of price expectations by individual entrepreneurs. Allain's conclusions depend upon redefinitions of aggregate and effective demand and the consumption function. Hartwig (Hartwig, J. (2007) Keynes vs. the Post Keynesians on the principle of effective demand, European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, 14, pp. 725–739) argues that entrepreneurs must take into account the state of the economy as a whole, in order to form price expectations independently and not as a market equilibrium determined by aggregate supply and demand. This leaves demand price expectations to be determined outside the principle of effective demand. Neither author does full justice to Keynes's own treatment. We still need to agree by what mechanism individual entrepreneurs form a collective and mutually consistent state of expectation in The General Theory.     

Market Power and Marketisation: Japan and China's Impact on the Iron Ore Market, 50 Years Apart

ABSTRACT

How can we explain the marketisation of the iron ore market following the emergence of China, whereas the same market had seen change in the opposite direction following the emergence of Japan, 50 years earlier? I argue that relative coordination capacity – or relative market power – between domestic and international stakeholders explains market change at the global level. Via the study of Japan and China's impact on the iron ore pricing and shipping regimes, I show that China's rise led to the marketisation (liberalisation and financialisation) of the iron ore market pricing regime, and the demarketisation of the shipping regime, whereas Japan's rise led to demarketisation in both cases. This article's argument illustrates that China's impact is not equal across markets, contrary to characterisations of China as either a revisionist or status quo power. Second, it argues that China has caused the marketisation of the iron ore pricing regime, which is contrary to expectations on both sides of the debate on China's rise: China was unable to dictate outcomes via a strong state, nor did it seamlessly integrate the global economy. Third, it illustrates the importance of resonance dynamics at the interface of domestic and global market institutions.     

Hayek and Keynes: From a common critique of economic method to different theories of expectations

The methodological positions of Hayek and Keynes contain striking similarities. Both authors opposed empiricist approaches to economics that assign priority to mere observation as the source of knowledge. Both emphasised intentionality, motivation and human agency. Notwithstanding this common ground, they had different conceptions of how beliefs are formed and had different explanations of thought and action in economics. Hayek grounded his explanation on an evolutionary theory of the mind, i.e. on psychological premises, whereas Keynes based his view of belief formation on probable reasoning, where probability is a logical concept. Starting from psychological premises Hayek maintained that individuals act rationally only by following rules. As a consequence, he considered conventional expectations to be the primary guide for agents in economic life. Keynes agreed that conventional expectations actually guide economic behaviour, but he maintained that they are justified only in situations of total ignorance. In conditions of limited knowledge, agents can base their action on reasonable expectations, independently of conventions. Moreover, agents?particularly those institutions responsible for economic policy?ought to shun conventional behaviour in order to counteract its negative social consequences. We argue that Keynes's theory of expectations is well grounded upon his theory of logical probability. Hence his advocacy of discretionary policy is rationally justified.     

Confidence in Keynes and Hayek: Reply to Burczak

We agree with Burczak's identification of the crucial issues. We disagree with his interpretation of them. We expand our defense of the claim that Keynes was a rationalist. We introduce the "horizon principle" to critize Keynes' dichotomy between short-term and long-term expectations. We question the statistical simile guiding some Post Keynesian dsiscussions of uncertainty. We point to the role of evolution in shaping conventions that fit the economic environment in a world with novel events. We think the evidence favors our view over Burczak's. Finally, we put in a plea for framing the issues in a way that facilitates empirical testing.     

Economic Calculation: Private Property or Several Control?

Abstract

As the centenary of the 1917 Russian revolution approaches, it is worth reviewing the past 100 years’ discussion amongst economists on the possibility—or otherwise—of economic planning under socialism. The socialist calculation debate is of fundamental importance, not merely as a specialist application of economic ideas, but as an investigation of the foundations of economic activity. Every economic action is premised upon calculation, every choice depends upon an assessment of the costs and benefits of each alternative between which the agent must choose. The view of that choice and its attendant calculation is constitutive of the schools of thought—Marxian, neoclassical and Austrian—which have contributed to the debate. An understanding of the calculation debate is therefore required to understand how these paradigms stand in relation to each other. This article addresses one aspect of that debate—the claim by Austrian economists that socialism is impossible because the absence of private property in the means of production precludes economic calculation. The article suggests that several control rather than private property is required for economic calculation, and that several control is consistent with public ownership of the means of production. The Austrian argument on this point, therefore, is without force.     

Eliciting Stock Market Expectations: The Effects of Question Wording on Survey Experience and Response Validity

Expectations about stock market movements are an important factor in models of investments and savings. To better understand consumers' financial behavior, economic surveys such as the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) ask participants to report expectations about the stock market. However, readability statistics suggest that the HRS' stock market expectations questions use relatively complex wording, which may contribute to their relatively high rates of missing responses. Here, the authors build on survey design research to improve the readability of these questions. In 2 experiments using national online panels, they test whether revising stock market expectation questions to reduce their difficulty affects respondents' (1) survey experience, as measured by percent of missing answers and ratings of question clarity and difficulty, and (2) response validity, as assessed by respondents' confidence in their answer and comparisons between expectations and stock market outcomes. In both studies, the authors' revisions improved survey experience. Unfortunately, revisions also decreased the perceived (Study 1) and actual (Study 2) validity of responses. The authors discuss implications of question revisions for the design of economic surveys.     

Further reflections on the 'Hidden Theology' of Adam Smith

Abstract

A re-reading of the Thousand and One Nights in light of economic thought is attempted here. These stories characterize a bazaar economy as the dark side of medieval economics. The process-view of the bazaar is discussed in relation to Smith, Walras and the Austrian School. The tacit notions of ‘market price’ and ‘natural price’ are touched upon. Auctions are then elaborated with reference to Böhm-Bawerk. Moreover, the role of asymmetric information as a recurrent theme is interpreted in relation with Akerlof's approach. Finally, the collective function of the tales in fostering confidence in a less-than-well instituted bazaar economy is emphasized.     

Austrian Economics,Socialism and Impure Forms of Economic Organisation

Modern supporters of the Austrian school of economics maintain that their critical stance towards impure forms of economic organisation - such as the mixed economy - grew out of the arguments of Mises and Hayek during the socialist calculation debate of the 1930s. The paper assesses the two theorists, contributions in the debate and argues that their ideas cannot provide the basis for a general rejection of impure forms of economic organisation. First of all, and contrary to most modern Austrians, who consider the contributions of Mises and Hayek as essentially consistent, it is argued that Hayek's critique of socialism is much more effective than Mises' as it rests on his concept of tacit knowldge and on an evolutionary account of the emergence of capitalist institutions. However, the paper goes on to argue that, if Hayek's critique of state intervention is to have any relevance for contemporary capitalist economies, it must be in a position to show the non-viability not only of a fully centrally planned economy of the Soviet type but also of the mixed economy. It is argued that it is precisely in this that Hayek's evolutionism fails, for his teleological approach is not persuasive in ruling out the possibility of impure forms of capitalism in a manner that is consistent with truly evolutionary - i.e. non-teleological - ideas.     

Eriksson on Critical Realism: a rejoinder

Abstract

In this response to Andrew Mearman I argue that his critique suffers from a series of misrepresentations of my paper. For example, Mearman generalizes my arguments about Keynes to be about Critical Realism (CR), and he challenges my criticism of Tony Lawson's arguments by claiming that I have misrepresented CR. In fact the text of my 1998 paper does not support Mearman's claims. Furthermore, since (i) the principal aim of my paper was to question the interpretation of Keynes as a realist, and (ii) Mearman does not present any arguments suggesting how CR in its current form would refute my conclusions, his criticism must be judged doubly misdirected.     

Three macroeconomic syntheses of vintage 1937: Hicks,Haberler, and Lundberg

Abstract

The 1920s and 1930s were years of intensive debate about economic dynamics and stabilisation policies. There was a large variety of explanations of cycles and depressions, and Keynes’ General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936) was pitched against them. In 1937, followed three different attempts to provide synthetic expositions of macroeconomic theory that would deal with the Keynesian challenge: Hicks’ Mr. Keynes and the “Classics”, Haberler's Prosperity and Depression, and Lundberg's Studies in the Theory of Economic Expansion. This paper compares those 1937 syntheses and contrasts them with the “Neoclassical Synthesis” and the current “New Neoclassical Synthesis”.     

The Role of credit in a Keynesian monetary economy

Abstract

This paper describes the features of a monetary economy on the basis of Keynes's distinction between a real exchange economy and a monetary economy. In The General Theory, Keynes identifies the reasons for the non-neutrality of money by highlighting the store of wealth function of money; this approach has been adopted by most Keynesian economists. The aim of this paper is to show that such an approach only partially explains the reasons for money non-neutrality and that important elements which demonstrate the relevance of monetary variables emerge when the means of payment function of money is considered. Investigating the role of this function requires that we deal explicitly with how spending decisions are financed. The paper argues that the market for credit must be considered separately from the market for money, and that a viable credit theory can be built from Keynes's post-General Theory writings.     

The French Revolution and the Creation of Benthamism

Abstract

The article investigates Knut Wicksell's interpretation of aggregate economic fluctuations. It is shown that Wicksell described the business cycle as oscillations of an economy with increasing population and scarce natural resources around its steady growth path ('dynamic equilibrium'), provoked by sporadic technological progress. The ‘shocks’ bring about a wave‐like motion because of psychological and technical lags in the economic structure. Wicksell's suggestion that excess net savings in the depression take the form of stocks of commodities is compared to his contemporaries’ answers to the question ‘What happens to savings during the depression?’ The article also puts forward a relatively neglected connection between Malthus’ and Wicksell's notions of over‐production. Divergences between the natural and market rates of interest — essential to his better‐known ‘cumulative process’ ‐ are not a necessary part of Wicksell's business cycle, but they are important to explain why the upper turning‐point can have the nature of a crisis, which results from wrong expectations induced by cumulative price movements.     

The sustainability of the current account in the Czech Republic,Hungary and Slovenia

The aim of this paper is to investigate empirically the sustainability of the current account in three Central European countries, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovenia, since their move towards market economy about 15 years ago. The analysis is based on the intertemporal approach to the current account which states that if real exports and real imports are integrated of order one then cointegration between them is a necessary and sufficient condition for the economy to satisfy its intertemporal budget constraint. On the basis of various unit-root and cointegration tests on the shares of real exports and imports in real GDP, this study concludes that the Czech Republic and Slovenia are not in violation of their intertemporal budget constraint and their trade imbalances are sustainable. However, the real exports and imports of these countries, and also the export, import measures of Hungary, do not seem to behave as random walks, excluding the possibility of cointegration between them.      

An Austrian view of expectations and business cycles

Austrian economists have contributed several important concepts to business cycle theory including: inter-temporal coordination of production and consumption, heterogeneous specificity of capital, non-neutrality of money, and the capital structure of production. Noticeably lacking, however, is a clear theory of expectations. Recent Austrian responses to rational expectations critiques—such as positing a prisoner’s dilemma, heterogeneous entrepreneurs, and adverse selection—try to fill this gap. But much work remains to be done developing an Austrian theory of expectations, one where they are endogenous to the market process and market institutions. This paper explores how people adapt their expectations to changing market phenomena based upon their perceived costs and benefits of doing so. It then applies endogenous expectations to the 2008 financial crisis.     

Book reviews

Abstract

This article contributes to the literature on the Hayek–Keynes controversy on two points. The first contribution is to show that the question of the micro-foundations of macroeconomics is crucial to understand the Hayek–Keynes controversy. The second contribution is to reveal that Hayek's attack on the micro-foundations issue had a methodological impact on the making of the General Theory especially via the concept of marginal efficiency of capital. The paper concludes that what finally contrasts Hayek and Keynes is the kind of micro-foundations that economists should adopt to explain business cycles.     

Marx and the Development of Critical Political Economy

Abstract

Although relevant analytical developments were provided over time by the critique of economic theory, they did not succeed in inhibiting the occurrence of a full-fledged revival of the neoclassical interpretation of capitalism. The development of critical economics and its capability of checking the influence of the dominant economic culture have been especially prejudiced by the failed integration between the analyses of Marx and Keynes. Following Keynes, once the ‘inducement to invest’ had been singled out as the central question for the explanation of output levels, one should have promptly acknowledged that on this very question Marx's analysis was significantly richer and more relevant than Keynes's—the richness and relevance of the former ultimately resting on the great attention Marx dedicated to the complex question of the influence of income distribution on the capitalists’ incentive to invest. It is argued in the article that through the study of this influence Marx succeeded in putting together the essential elements of a critical theory of effective demand, based on the principles and mechanisms that govern the distribution of income between profits and wages.