中国经济周期的社会福利成本

文章通过建立动态一般均衡模型,测算出中国经济周期的社会福利成本,并在此基础上给出了政策建议。结果显示,与非洲的发展中国家不同,现阶段,消除我国经济周期所带来的社会福利非常小,少于提升消费增长速度0.1%所带来的社会福利,与抑制经济周期相比,政府应该把主要精力放在如何促进经济增长上。     

The causal relationship between equipment investment and infrastructures on economic growth in China

There is agreement in the literature on economic growth concerning the transitory effects of capital accumulation on the process of economic development. However, controversy arises if this effect is permanent. In this sense, the key point is the embodied technological progress and whether supply factors predominate among the determinants of capital accumulation. Only in this case should expect long-run effects of capital accumulation on economic growth. Inspired by this idea, I focus the study on two elements accounting for economic development—equipment investment and productive infrastructure and I also analyze the type of the empirical relationship that exists between them. The results indicate that equipment investment and infrastructures have played a significant role in accounting for long-run growth in China. However, I do not find empirical evidence supporting any relationship between the two types of investment. In addition, I find that foreign trade has stimulated output and equipment investment in the long run. Finally, it is found that innovation activities encourage equipment investment in the long run.     

Religion and Economic Development in History: Institutions and the Role of Religious Networks

I argue that the role of religion on economic performance is mainly through the networks of small religious groups. These groups form social networks that enable individuals to conduct non-formal contract enforcement mechanisms. I analyze the effects of religions on societies, focusing mainly on the institutional aspects that affect the capabilities of creating social capital via networks which enhance cooperation and decrease transaction costs. Since the interaction between institutions and organizations is expected to shape the institutional evolution and economic performance of an economy, religions that have a communal form of organization rather than a vertical (hierarchical) structure, thus allowing many different denominational sub-communities within a society, can be more beneficiary for development and growth. Such institutions may not only provide allocative and production efficiency, but also adaptive efficiency that is a key to long-run growth. However, these effects may turn negative depending on these institutions’ role in causing group hostility and exclusion.     

Economic sociology: a historical perspective

In this paper we briefly recall what is meant by economic sociology, basing our definition principally on the works of R. Swedberg and M. Cranovetter. We then focus on the questions and problematics which are more particularly relevant to the history of economic and sociological thought in such a way as to make explicit the kind of past in relation to which economic sociology is most pertinent. We shall thus be induced to correct certain explanations and to propose a slightly different perspective on the origin of economic sociology. This historical work enables us to formulate a definition of economic sociology based on two key concepts - economic institution and economic action - and allows us to articulate what economic sociology actually is, rather than merely describing what it is not. Finally, we show that these propositions are not without interest in relation to the present-day economic sociology that tends to go by the name - made fasionable by Granovetter and Swedberg - of ‘New Economic Sociology.’     

二元经济理论与人口流动问题分析

二元经济理论框架下的核心问题是劳动力在两个部门之间的流动。刘易斯模型在分析剩余劳动力的存在、两部门交易条件的变化、输入地有效就业和传统部门在经济增长中的作用等问题时具有高度科学性和实用性。用区域生产总值（GRP）的概念,以向量内积的形式建立简单模型求证人口转移数量。实证揭示了人口流动的主方向是人均GRP较低的区域向较高区域的移动,但也存在反向移动。     

"The Reality of the Present and the Challenge of the Future": J. Fagg Foster for the Twenty-First Century

This paper revisits J. Fagg Foster’s early assessment of the relevance of John Maynard Keynes’s theory of institutional economics. In his view, neither institutionalists nor most of Keynes’s followers really recognized the importance of Keynes’s theoretical insights. I examine Foster’s views on economic theory, with a particular focus on monetary theory. I apply Foster’s approach to what is now called modern money theory, an approach developed by heterodox economists working in the institutionalist and post-Keynesian traditions. I argue that this approach is consistent with Foster’s, and it offers a way forward to policy formation for the twenty-first century.     

中国碳排放与经济增长间脱钩关系的实证分析

利用Tapio脱钩模型和Kaya恒等式,使用LMDI方法,建立扩展的Tapio脱钩模型。选取1990—2010年中国碳排放量和经济增长的数据,对中国碳排放与经济增长的脱钩关系进行定量分析。研究结果表明:1990—2010年期间中国碳排放与经济增长总体上具有弱脱钩关系,经济增长是碳排放增加的主要原因,能源强度降低是实现碳排放与经济增长脱钩的关键。最后提出"降低能源强度、优化产业结构、调整能源结构"的对策以实现碳排放与经济增长的脱钩。     

The Australia — New Zealand Farm Problem and the Appropriate Role of Government

Almost throughout the world, farm incomes tend to be low and unstable compared with incomes in other industries, except where heavily subsidised. This instability has become all the more serious because fluctuations have been around a long-term downward trend in the fortunes of agriculture which commenced probably prior to World War I. The long-run world-wide farm problem is an inevitable consequence of economic growth, which results in a surplus of farmers, and especially of small farmers. We must recognise the quite intractable nature of the long-term world-wide component of the problem, as distinct from what can be blamed on our governments, and on the short-term to medium-term world market situation. Temporary assistance policy should centre on facilitating adjustment. The ad hoc, inefficient and inequitable palliatives of the past should be avoided. Short-term assistance should be consistent with longer term objectives for industry development: it should not include output-based subsidies that encourage continued overproduction and usually provide most assistance to those in least need. The emphasis should be on welfare-type assistance based on the individual rather than industry-wide aid.     

A review of Personalist Economics

The recent focus on sustainability as guiding principle for economic activity has generated many (often conflicting) definitions of sustainable economic development. Yet while the terminology may be new, the discussion is not. It parallels the discussion about biases of economic valuation concepts that have led to the neglect of the domestic and subsistence contributions relegated to the "informal" or household sector. This paper argues that the narrow definition of economic theory, methodology, and valuation concepts has led to the detrimental neglect of sustaining functions without which economic activity is impaired. To move toward sustainability it is imperative to regain a broader understanding of economics. Three principles are identified as essential for this conceptual expansion of economics. They are: concreteness rather than abstraction, connectedness rather than isolation, and diversity rather than homogeneity. All three are informed by feminist theory. Thus it is argued that the voices of women who have gone largely unheard in economics are essential to reconceptualizing economics as sustainable.     

Adaptive Economic Models

The growth literature has identified four channels of transmission by which the abundance of natural resources can negatively affect economic growth. In this article, I suggest ideology as a fifth transmission channel. To test this hypothesis, I exploit the geography of Bolivia whose western regions have natural resources that differ considerably from its eastern regions. I find that regions with predominantly extractive natural resources tend to choose redistributive and interventionist rather than laissez-faire policies. Additionally, I identify two effects on growth depending upon the type of natural resource that a region possesses in abundance.     

能源消费与经济增长的关联关系分析——基于山东省1980～2008年相关数据实证研究

能源消费与经济增长之间的关系一直是国内外关注的焦点,确定二者之间的因果关系方向具有重大的政策含义。在总结国内外研究成果的基础上,采用1980—2008年的相关统计数据,利用协整理论和Granger因果关系检验分析山东省能源消费与经济增长之间的关系,结果显示能源消费与经济增长具有长期趋势关系,且存在双向因果关系;通过对柯氏生产函数的扩展计量模型,采用广义最小二乘法进行估计,得出结论：山东省能源消费与经济增长呈正相关关系,经济增长对能源消耗的依赖程度较高。     

Sunk costs and the measurement of commercial property depreciation

Developments in property markets greatly influence economic growth, monetary policy, productivity measurement, inflation measurement and hence welfare payments to the disadvantaged. Property price bubbles often lead to financial crises; those experienced during the 20th century were often triggered by commercial property price movements. Yet property poses significant challenges for national accountants in producing key economic variables used in informing policy assessment and formulation. To address these challenges, this paper formalizes a framework for measuring prices and quantities of capital inputs for a commercial property. In particular, it addresses problems associated with obtaining separate estimates for the land and structure components of a property, a decomposition of property value that is important for the national accounts, productivity measurement and taxation. A key contribution is to address the problem of estimating structure depreciation taking into account the fixity of the structure. We find that structure depreciation is determined primarily by the cash flows that the property generates rather than physical deterioration of the building. Finally, we provide a framework for the determination of the optimal length of life for a structure.     

The institutional approach to economic history: Connecting the two strands

This essay examines the historiography of two episodes in history—the scattering of plots in the open fields in the Middle Ages and the transition to the factory system in the Industrial Revolution—to shed light on the uses of institutional economics in economic history. In both of these episodes, economic “just-so” stories advanced our understanding of history. What animated intellectual innovation in both cases was a bold conjecture about the raison d’être of a puzzling institutional structure. But what ultimately enriched our understanding was the process of conjecture and revision those conjectures set off. In both episodes, the revised conjectures that best withstood criticism and revision were those that saw the phenomena not as static snapshots of economic agents confronting an economic problem but rather those that embedded the phenomena within a larger economic problem and within a process of economic change. In the end it is an account of institutional change—what I call the good old New Institutional Economics—that connects the use of institutional economics to explain puzzling historical phenomenon with the role of institutional economics in addressing the big questions of economic growth.     

Economic development, growth of human capital, and the dynamics of the wage structure

In this paper I elucidate the sources of growth of human capital in the course of economic development. On the supply side (Section 1) I include the growth of family income, urbanization, the demographic transition, and the rising cost of time.The supply side alone cannot explain the continuous growth of human capital as it implies a self limiting decline in rates of return below those in alternative investments. Such declines are offset by growing demands for human capital in the labor market. Growth of demand for labor skills is a function of capital accumulation and of technological changes. Evidence on this hypothesis is summarized in Section 2 and on supply responses to growing demand for human capital in Section 3. Changes in the skill and wage structures in the labor market are an important part of the evidence.The reciprocal relation between economic growth and the growth of human capital is likely to be an important key to sustained economic growth. A caveat applies to indirect effects of economic growth on family instability, which may lead to a deterioration of childhood human capital in some sectors of society.     

Technology,productivity, and industry structure

This paper examines the controversy as to the particular firm size or industry structure that is most conducive to innovation. Four major conclusions emerge from the considerations advanced here. First, contrary to the focus of the controversy, the relevant issue is not one of the economic statics. Rather, it is one of technological dynamism. Second, variety is an essential ingredient of innovative activity, which can be sustained only through equivalent variety in firm size and industry structure. Thus, there is no one single optimum firm size or industry structure. Third, the origin of interindustry differences in innovation and productivity growth lies in certain processes of cumulative causation involving a multiplicity of variables rather than any one single factor at the exclusion of all others. In consequence, we find that productivity does not advance in a uniform manner across various industries. Rather, it is characterized by an inherently uneven pattern of growth. Fourth, it is pointless to strive for a balanced growth between various sectors of the economy. Rather, an effective policy is one of deliberately lopsided growth whereby fuller development of progressive industries makes it possible to generate the additional resources required for investment in the backward industries. Finally, while the policy to stimulate technical progress and productivity growth must be formulated in a broader socioeconomic context, its focus ought to be on the internal dynamics of technical change processes.     

Economic openness and income growth in developing countries: a regional comparative analysis

This article examines and compares the openness–growth relationship between the high-performing Asian economies (HPAEs) and the rest of the developing world (Sub-Saharan Africa-SSA, South East Asia-SEA and Latin America and Caribbean-LAC). We applied the SYS-GMM estimator to a dynamic standard endogenous growth model which relates economic openness to real per capita income growth. A few key findings emerged from this study. First, economic openness led to increase in real per capita GDP growth in HPAEs and SSA, but not in LAC and SEA. Second, openness to trade accelerated income convergence among countries in SSA, SEA, and HPAEs, however, whereas foreign direct investment inflows accelerated income convergence only in SSA, it rather de-accelerated income convergence in HPAEs. Thirdly, the HPAEs recorded higher positive effect of openness on real per capita GDP growth than any of the other developing regions because they created sufficient stock of human capital that enhanced their absorptive capacity of imported advanced technology. They also created a more stable macroeconomic environment which consolidated the income growth gains from openness. The results of this study highlight the importance of the implementation of policies that are complementary to economic openness in promoting economic growth in the developing world.     

经济结构转型升级路径下的增长分析

可持续增长是对现实中经济增长的挑战,这表明经济增长受到众多因素的制约,对某地区增长模型的分析佐证了这一认识。经济结构升级换代是区域可持续增长的关键。新古典理论通过外生的技术进步来解释可持续增长;内生增长理论认为,内生的技术进步使资本边际收益不变,从而投资导致经济长期增长。两种理论都认为,技术进步是区域经济可持续增长的"原动力"。     

Treaty of Paris vs. Treaty of Niagara: Rethinking Canadian economic history in the 21st century

In this paper, I argue that in focussing on the role of natural resource exports (“staples”) as drivers of the extent and characteristics of economic growth, Canadian economic history has overlooked questions of resource ownership. Equally it has focused on the development of the settler economy rather than on that of Indigenous nations, with little acknowledgement of the relationship between the two. I review some milestones in the evolution of legal recognition of Indigenous land and resource rights, an evolution that has a direct impact on today's Canadian economy. I then survey some recent papers to demonstrate that the theoretical and empirical tools of economists can combine to provide important new insights into, and a more holistic picture of, the development of the Canadian economy.     

Occupational choice and entrepreneurship: effects of R&D subsidies on economic growth

Most R&D-based growth models fail to explicitly account for the role of entrepreneurs in economic growth. By contrast, this study accounts for this factor and constructs an overlapping-generations model that includes entrepreneurial innovation and the occupational choice of becoming an entrepreneur or a worker. For the role of entrepreneurs, even a policy intended to encourage innovation can negatively affect economic growth. For the effect of such policies, I focus on the role of R&D subsidies. I show that while R&D subsidies promote entrepreneurs’ R&D activities, they increase workers’ wages by boosting labor demand. Thus, it is more attractive to be a worker, which reduces the number of entrepreneurs. Subsidies can have both a negative and positive effect on growth, which results in an inverted U-shaped relationship between R&D subsidies and growth. In addition, a growth-maximizing R&D subsidy rate exists, although this rate is too high to maximize the welfare level of any one generation. When individuals are heterogeneous in their abilities, R&D subsidies reduce intra-generational inequalities.     

Management and the representative firm revisited: the modern significance of Marshall's evolutionary economics

In an essay written in honour of Peter Swann, it is second nature to discuss some aspects of the economics of innovation, as that is the very challenging area of economic life where he has added so much to our understanding. I will attempt to do this by posing the problem of how innovation fits into the theory of value. Innovation research continues apace, but its broader systemic implications for how we understand the dynamics of capitalism are in danger of being overlooked. But two important economists, Schumpeter and Marshall, have seen the problem differently and built innovation into their theoretical schemes from the start. Marshall's theory of evolutionary change provides a natural focus for our discussion, and this is reflected in his treatment of management, in his use of the representative firm and in the variation-cum-selection dynamics of his open competitive process. We treat each of these topics and show how his evolutionary dynamics can be expressed in the Fisher/Price dynamics of evolutionary change. More generally, the key to economic development is the uneven nature of innovation and it is the uneven nature that gives economic transformation its evolutionary character. This, I suggest, is the proper legacy of Marshalls economics.