通货膨胀预期及其宏观调控

一、通货膨胀预期概述 (一)通货膨胀预期的含义 通货膨胀预期是人们对于未来一定时期不确定的通货膨胀的主观判断和事前估计,包括对未来通货膨胀的变动方向以及幅度的预测.它能改变经济主体的消费和投资等行为,从而影响未来的实际通货膨胀水平.     

我国通货膨胀与农产品价格、经济增长动态关系分析

文章运用VAR方法研究通货膨胀、农产品价格,经济增长互相之间的影响.研究发现: (1)GDP的增长有很强的惯性,GDP受CPI和API的影响非常小,而对CPI和API的影响是决定性的. (2)CPI也有很强的惯性.表明通货膨胀一旦发生就不易控制.OPI受GDP的影响很大,受API的影响可以忽略不计,CPI对经济增长有一定的影响,对API的影响也较大. (3)API主要受GDP和CPI的影响,但自身也有滞后影响;API对GDP和CPl的影响可以忽略不计.由此可以发现,我国目前过高的经济增长是以偏高的CPl和API为代价,而且是高的CPJ导致了高的API.     

高通货膨胀中的国际收支因素分析

去年以来,尽管采取了一系列治理通货膨胀的措施,但通货膨胀率却依然达到20%,而且居高不下.造成通货膨胀的原因是多方面的,这里仅就国际收支对通货膨胀的影响以及产生影响的内在机制,做些初步的分析.一、经常项目和资本项目的顺差对货币供应量增加的影响通货膨胀的原因多种多样,但最终表现为一种货币现象.如果中央银行控制住了广义货币供应量,就不会出现物价的全面上涨.去年初确定了将通货膨胀控制在10%以内的目标,并据此制定了信贷计划和现金供应计划.各方面下了很大力量控制固定资产信贷规模,并取得了一定的成效.但实际情况表明,控制住固定资产投资规模并不意味着控制了广义货币.截止到1994年9月末,我国广义货币(M_2)供应量达到43513.7亿元,比去年同期增长37.1%.这是导致通货膨胀的根本原因.     

中国经济高位运行对近期通货膨胀压力的实证分析

本文使用2005年1-2007年6月月度数据,借助VAR计量分析方法,分析了近期通货膨胀压力与中国经济高位运行之间的关系.研究结果显示,经济高位运行所释放出来的通货膨胀压力不容忽视.其中投资需求、消费需求对物价上涨的影响比较大,但净出口(双顺差)对物价上涨的影响并不显著.     

中国长期、短期通货膨胀不确定性与通货膨胀的关系

基于中国1983年1月-2008年3月的月度CPI数据,本文应用马尔可夫机制转换-不可观测成分模型分离出长期和短期的通货膨胀不确定性,继而检验了不同期限的通货膨胀不确定性与通货膨胀水平之间的关系,由此得出的结论为:(1)马尔可夫机制转换-不可观测成分模型更好地拟合了中国通货膨胀动态过程;(2)长期通货膨胀不确定性和短期通货膨胀不确定性均与通货膨胀水平有正向的关系,然而通货膨胀对前者的影响更大。(3)2008年以来短期通货膨胀不确定性小幅增加以及长期通货膨胀不确定性突然上升的态势,预示公众对未来长期价格水平的预期存在着极大的不确定性。而通货膨胀具有社会成本往往是因为较高的通货膨胀与较高的长期通货膨胀不确定性紧密相关,因此这值得货币当局重点关注。     

通货膨胀对我国企业财务运行的影响及启示

随着我国经济的发展,我国企业得到了快速发展,同时市场竞争越来越激烈。不过在通货膨胀条件下,现代企业要在市场竟争中立于不败之地,就必须降低通货膨胀对企业财务运行的影响,增强自身的竞争力。本文为此首先具体探讨了通货膨胀对我国企业财务运行的影响方面,从多方面探讨了通货膨胀下我国企业可持续发展的财务运行措施:夯实财务管理基础工作,提高财务信息质量,加强营运资金管理和优化资本结构。最后给出了通货膨胀下企业发展的启示。     

基于SARIMA模型的我国通货膨胀问题研究

通货膨胀已经成为国内外学者及政府越来越关注的问题.本文在国内外学者对通货膨胀预测研究的基础上,根据我国2000年1月到2009年8月的CPI月度数据,运用SARIMA模型,对我国通货膨胀进行分析和短期预测.实证结果表明,运用SARIMA(1,1,12)模型为我国的通货膨胀提供了较好的预测.     

通货膨胀对我国酿酒行业盈利能力影响的实证研究

2010年以来通货膨胀压力逐渐显现,作为传统意义上的抗通胀行业,研究酿酒行业的盈利变化及影响因素的研究显得较为重要.本文使用2009年—2012年的样本数据,采用聚类分析研究行业总体情况并且给出了相关的评价,同时,文章使用因子分析和多元回归分析相结合的方法来研究酿酒行业在通货膨胀背景下的盈利能力情况并找出主要的影响因素.实证结果表明酿酒行业的利润与通货膨胀成正相关,与居民消费能力情况也有着正相关性,并且发现其盈利能力主要受到了居民消费能力的影响.     

通货膨胀下的财政货币政策有效性研究——基于印度的实证研究

从1998年到2004年,我国实行积极财政政策和稳健型货币政策,对经济增长起到了巨大作用,但近年来,结构性通货膨胀出现,政策需要调整.作为与我国国情类似的印度,其财政货币政策有着自己的特点,特别自1991年改革后,加大了调整的力度,通货膨胀一直处于较低水平.通过研究改革后的印度财政货币政策的有效性,作为供我国财政货币政策调整借鉴的他山之石.根据协整理论、误差修正模型(ECM)与格兰杰因果检验,验证了印度财政政策在应对总体通货膨胀的有效性大于货币政策,而货币政策短期对通货膨胀的影响不明显.     

劳动要素价格扭曲对通货膨胀的影响——理论探讨与实证检验

本文将劳动要素价格扭曲引入到通货膨胀影响的分析当中,通过模型的构建揭示了两者基本关系,并利用中国30个省份1998-2014年的面板数据进行了实证验证。研究表明:(1)中国劳动要素价格扭曲与通货膨胀之间呈现显著的负相关关系,劳动要素价格扭曲数值的增加会降低通货膨胀。(2)从影响机制来看,劳动要素价格扭曲通过影响B-S效应,进而影响到通货膨胀。(3)中国劳动要素价格正向扭曲程度逐步加深,成为提高通货膨胀的潜在因素。最后,基于本文的研究结论,针对中国通货膨胀的预防与治理提出了相关的政策建议。     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

The greenhouse effect: Damages,costs and abatement

The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO₂ in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO₂ eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO₂ emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO₂ saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.     

SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY: TRACING THE FLOW OF BASIC RESEARCH THROUGH MANUFACTURING AND TRADE

This paper describes flows of basic research through the US economy during the late 20th century. In addition, the paper studies the effect of the flows on scientific papers in industries and fields. This article differs from others in its use of measures of science rather than technology. Together, its results present a picture of the structure of basic research flows in a modern, science-intensive economy. Basic research flows are large within petrochemicals and drugs, and within software and communications. Flows of chemistry, physics, and engineering are common throughout all industries – biology and medicine are almost confined to petrochemicals and drugs; and computer science is nearly as restricted to software and communications. In general, basic research flows are more concentrated within scientific fields than within industries. Our findings concerning the production of scientific papers indicate that the effect of a 1% change in academic R&D spillovers significantly exceeds that of industrial spillovers. In addition, within-field effects exceed effects between-fields, while within- and between-industry effects are roughly equal. It follows that scientific fields limit basic research flows more than industries do, perhaps because large firms implicitly span a range of industries.     

Valuing Mangrove-Fishery Linkages – A Case Study of Campeche, Mexico

This paper explores the value of mangrove systems as a breeding and nursery habitat for off-shore fisheries, focusing on mangrove-shrimp production linkages in Campeche State, Mexico. We develop an open access fishery model to account explicitly for the effect of mangrove area on carrying capacity and thus production. From the long-run equilibrium conditions of the model we are able to establish the key parameters determining the comparative static effects of a change in mangrove area on this equilibrium. We then estimate empirically the effects of changes in mangrove area in the Laguna de Terminos on the production and value of shrimp harvests in Campeche over 1980–90. Our findings suggest that mangroves are an important and essential input into the Campeche shrimp fishery, but that the low levels of deforestation between 1980 and 1990 mean that the resulting losses to the shrimp fishery are still comparatively small. Over-exploitation of the fishery due to open access conditions remains the more pervasive threat, and without better management any long-run benefits of protecting mangrove habitat are likely to be dissipated.     

An Economic Analysis and Simulation of Woodfuel Management in the Sahel

This paper presents an economic framework and a computationalmethodology for assessing the evolution of woodfuel supply costsand the spatial distribution of biomass in a Sahelian woodlandsetting. Spatial data on standing stock and the costs oftransport to market are used to construct a supply curve for fuelto a fuel-consuming location. Given an exogenously specifieddemand, the model simulates, period by period, the extraction,regeneration, and transport of wood fuels. The model is appliedto evaluate the benefits and ecological impacts of scenarios forwoodland management around the city of N'Djamena, Chad.     

Zvi Griliches's contributions to the economics of technology and growth*

Zvi Griliches's contributions to the economics of technology and growth are identified. Included is a discussion of his contributions on: the determinants of differences in speed of adoption of innovations; the use of patents to measure technology; the private and social returns to R&D; and spillover effects from R&D. Griliches's own evaluation of his research contribution is compared to the evaluation of others in the field, using as evidence citation counts of his works collected from the online Web of Science. Griliches's most important contribution is his 1957 Econometrica hybrid corn paper that is a foundation of the economics of technological innovation. Remarkably, the trend in annual citations to the paper has continued to increase for over 40 years. Finally, we summarize Griliches's most recent views on the practice of economics and on the most important unanswered questions in the economics of technology and growth.     

Evidence on the impact of R&D and ICT investments on innovation and productivity in Italian firms

Both research and development (R&D) and information and communication technology (ICT) investment have been identified as sources of relative innovation underperformance in Europe vis-à-vis the USA. In this article, we investigate the R&D and ICT investment at the firm level in an effort to assess their relative importance and to what extent they are complements or substitutes. We use data on a large unbalanced panel data sample of Italian manufacturing firms constructed from four consecutive waves of a survey of manufacturing firms, to estimate a version of the CDM model of R&D, innovation, and productivity [Crépon–Duguet–Mairesse 1998. Research, innovation and productivity: An econometric analysis at the firm level. Economics of Innovation and New Technology 7, no. 2: 115–58] that has been modified to include ICT investment and R&D as the two main inputs into innovation and productivity. We find that R&D and ICT are both strongly associated with innovation and productivity, with R&D being more important for innovation, and ICT investment being more important for productivity. For the median firm, rates of return to both investments are so high that they suggest considerably underinvestment in both these activities. We explore the possible complementarity between R&D and ICT in innovation and production, but find none, although we do find complementarity between R&D and worker skill in innovation.     

新员工主动社会化行为与组织承诺关系研究——以社会资本为中介变量

为了探索新员工主动社会化行为影响组织承诺的过程,本文对来自企业的401个有效样本进行了实证分析。本研究运用层级回归的方法,控制了人口统计变量的影响后,发现员工的搜寻信息和搜寻绩效反馈行为对组织承诺有直接的正面影响,同时,通过员工社会资本对员工组织承诺产生了间接的正面影响。社会资本在员工搜寻信息和搜寻绩效反馈行为影响组织承诺的机制中起部分中介作用。员工的关系构建行为对组织承诺没有显著影响,但对员工社会资本存在显著的正面影响。