Evolving roles and dynamic capabilities of an innovation agency: the Dutch Rijksnijverheidsdienst, 1910–1940

Contemporary literature on intermediary organisations does not cover the history of these organisations in the early twentieth century or how their roles evolved. To understand the evolution of roles, this paper extends the application of dynamic capabilities theory from firms to intermediary organisations. It does this by studying a Dutch government innovation agency between 1910 and 1940 with dynamic capabilities in mediation and knowledge development. These capabilities are illustrated by nine examples that reveal how the agency's consultants modified and extended their resource base in order to continue supporting small and medium-sized enterprises while coping with considerable challenges and changes. Thereby, this paper shows that the dynamic capabilities theory can explain how intermediary organisations can adapt their roles.     

Innovation as a nonlinear process,the scientometric perspective,and the specification of an ‘innovation opportunities explorer’

The process of innovation follows nonlinear patterns across the domains of science, technology, and the economy. Novel bibliometric mapping techniques can be used to investigate and represent distinctive, but complementary perspectives on the innovation process (e.g. ‘demand’ and ‘supply’) as well as the interactions among these perspectives using animations. In a map, the different perspectives can be represented as ‘continents’ of data related to varying extents over time. For example, the different branches of Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) in the Medline database provide sources of such perspectives (e.g. ‘Diseases’ vs ‘Drugs and Chemicals’). The multiple-perspective approach enables us to reconstruct facets of the dynamics of innovation, in terms of selection mechanisms shaping localisable trajectories and/or resulting in more globalised regimes. By expanding the data with patents and scholarly publications, we demonstrate the use of this multi-perspective approach in the case of RNA Interference (RNAi). The possibility to develop an ‘Innovation Opportunities Explorer’ is specified.     

The determinants of production-related carbon emissions in West Germany, 1985–1990: assessing the role of technology and trade

This paper examines the determinants of the substantial decline of West German production-related carbon intensity in the face of falling energy prices. A computable general equilibrium model is used to determine the simulated effects of observed changes of world energy prices and domestic energy policy on the sectoral patterns of carbon emissions, energy consumption, output, value-added and other indicators of structural change. The structural changes not accounted for by energy prices and energy policy are attributed to changing patterns of productivity growth in Germany and the rest of the world (ROW) and changing patterns of ROW demand. Weights on these driving forces are selected by least squares. One key finding is that the contribution of ROW productivity and demand patterns to emission-relevant structural change unaccounted for by energy prices and energy policy is just under 30%. The remainder is split almost equally among patterns of domestic autonomous energy efficiency improvement and domestic labor efficiency patterns.     

Nonlinear adjustment in the real dollar–euro exchange rate: The role of the productivity differential as a fundamental

In this paper we analyze the influence of productivity differentials in the dynamics of the real dollar–euro exchange rate. Using nonlinear procedures for the estimation and testing of ESTAR models during the period 1970–2009 we find that the dollar–euro real exchange rate shows nonlinear mean reversion towards the fundamentals represented by the productivity differential. In addition, we provide evidence about the ability of this variable to capture the overvaluation and undervaluation of the dollar against the euro.     

Predator–prey dynamics in general equilibrium and the role of trade

We examine the implications of trade in an economy with two interrelated natural resources, focusing on the case of a simple predator–prey relationship. We derive a three-sector general equilibrium model where production functions are linked via the ecological dynamics of the natural system. Under autarky, this economy exhibits a steady-state equilibrium that overexploits the prey stock, reducing the linked predator population and overall welfare in the absence of harvesting controls. When two economies engage in trade, differences in the dynamics of the two resource systems can become the basis for comparative advantage. In this case, the predator–prey relationship leads to a source of comparative advantage in harvesting prey for a country with a lower autarky steady-state proportion of predators to prey. This feature has not been noticed in the literature and leads to a counterintuitive implication: free trade can help conserve predator and prey stocks in the country with the higher autarkic steady-state proportion of predators to prey. To illustrate the relevance of our analytic findings, we present the stylized empirical example of the effect of Chinook salmon imports on killer whale populations.     

Segregation and gender wage gaps in the private and the public sectors: an analysis of Danish linked employer–employee data, 2002–2012

This paper examines the relation between segregation and the gender wage gap in the public and the private sectors in Denmark from 2002 to 2012. The analysis shows that male–female differences in the share of females in occupations, industries, establishments and job cells (occupations within establishments) constitute 46 % of the raw gender wage gap in the private sector, while segregation in the public sector accounts for as much as 63 %. Segregation thus plays a substantially more important role in accounting for the gender wage gap in the public sector than in the private sector. While the importance of segregation for wage formation decreased substantially in the public sector over time, it only decreased slightly in the private sector. Although the remaining gender wage gap, after controlling for segregation, is close to zero in the public sector, a substantial within-job cell differential remains after controlling for segregation in the private sector.     

Industrialisation as an engine of growth in developing countries, 1950–2005

This paper examines the emergence of manufacturing in developing countries in the period 1950–2005. It presents new data on structural change in a sample of 67 developing countries and 21 advanced economies. The paper examines the theoretical and empirical evidence for the proposition that industrialisation acts as an engine of growth in developing countries and attempts to quantify different aspects of this debate. The statistical evidence is not completely straightforward. Manufacturing has been important for growth in developing countries, but not all expectations of the ‘engine of growth hypothesis’ are borne out by the data. The more general historical evidence provides more support for the industrialisation thesis.     

Economic growth and Kaldor's law: the case of Turkey, 1925–78

In this paper Kaldor's enine of growth hypothesis is examined and its validity is tested forr the Turkish economy. The results obtained, regardless of the specification and estimation techniques used, consistently support the hypothesis.     

How long until human-level AI? Results from an expert assessment

The development of human-level AI has been a core goal of the AI field since its inception, though at present it occupies only a fraction of the field's efforts. To help understand the viability of this goal, this article presents an assessment of expert opinions regarding human-level AI research conducted at AGI-09, a conference for this AI specialty. We found that various experts strongly disagree with each other on certain matters, such as timing and ordering of key milestones. However, we did find that most experts expect human-level AI to be reached within upcoming decades, and all experts give at least some chance that some milestones will be reached within this time. Furthermore, a majority of experts surveyed favor an integrative approach to human-level AI rather than an approach centered on a particular technique. Finally, experts are skeptical about the impact of massive research funding, especially if it is concentrated in relatively few approaches. These results suggest that the possibility of achieving human-level AI in the near term should be given serious consideration.     

加强知识科学研究 促进知识工程发展

知识科学与知识工程作为人工智能发展的新阶段,在知识社会中具有广阔的应用前景。在分析当前人工智能研究中存在的一些问题的基础上,提出通过加强知识科学研究,发展知识工程,从理论与实践层面上促进人工智能的发展。     

公安院校治安学专业实训项目的设计与实施

实践教学是高等教育的一个重要环节,是理论联系实际和培养学生能力的重要手段,发挥着理论教学不可替代的作用。实训项目的设计与开发是实践教学的关键。加强公安院校治安学专业实训项目的设计与实施,提高专业学生的实践能力和创新精神,已成为＂治安学人＂探索和思考的重要问题。治安学专业实训项目的设计应坚持围绕人才培养目标,实用、实际和实效等原则,按照治安类民警岗位能力的要求,划分为治安防范（含治安服务）、治安管理和治安问题查处等三大实训模块,在每个实训模块中设计若干实训项目。专业实训项目必须满足一定的条件,按照一定的步骤实施才能实现其价值。     

Using Labor Market Information to Evaluate Industrial Performance

Despite all the talk about a prioris and metaphysics, Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger's criticism amounts to an attack on pluralism and the evolutionary scientific point of view from a traditional Catholic perspective. The proposal by Andrew Hodge and Alan Duhs to entertain Ratzinger's criticism affords the opportunity to remind us of how John Dewey would respond from his secular, scientific point of view to the issues under discussion. From Dewey's point of view, I discuss briefly issues about the nature and place of presuppositions, the nature of human potentiality, the place of faith, the way to view society and human character, the nature of human growth and freedom, teleology, the nature and role of reason and intelligence, the failures of absolutism, and the importance of the method of intelligence and democratic habits against the methods and institutions of absolutism.