How long until human-level AI? Results from an expert assessment

The development of human-level AI has been a core goal of the AI field since its inception, though at present it occupies only a fraction of the field's efforts. To help understand the viability of this goal, this article presents an assessment of expert opinions regarding human-level AI research conducted at AGI-09, a conference for this AI specialty. We found that various experts strongly disagree with each other on certain matters, such as timing and ordering of key milestones. However, we did find that most experts expect human-level AI to be reached within upcoming decades, and all experts give at least some chance that some milestones will be reached within this time. Furthermore, a majority of experts surveyed favor an integrative approach to human-level AI rather than an approach centered on a particular technique. Finally, experts are skeptical about the impact of massive research funding, especially if it is concentrated in relatively few approaches. These results suggest that the possibility of achieving human-level AI in the near term should be given serious consideration.     

人工智能技术对碳排放的影响

随着新一轮科技革命和产业变革的深入推进，人工智能技术在应对气候变化方面扮演重要角色，并赋能“碳达峰、碳中和”目标的实现。利用2006—2019年中国内地省级面板数据，考察人工智能技术对碳排放的影响。研究发现：人工智能技术与碳排放之间呈倒U型关系，即当人工智能技术达到一定阈值后，其碳减排效应逐渐凸显；人工智能技术主要通过提高能源利用效率实现碳减排；在东部和西部地区，人工智能技术与碳排放之间存在显著倒U型关系，而在中部地区，人工智能技术对碳排放发挥持续促进作用。因此，在推进“双碳”目标过程中，需要以绿色低碳发展为目标开发人工智能技术，正确引导人工智能在碳减排领域的研发应用，针对不同区域实际制定差异化发展政策。     

制造企业人工智能创新如何赋能高质量发展 ——来自中国上市公司的经验证据

制造企业作为人工智能创新战略的重要载体，在经济高质量发展过程中发挥着举足轻重的作用。基于2015—2019年596家制造业上市公司数据，从组织外部竞争和内部生产要素视角，通过构建个体固定效应非平衡面板模型，探讨人工智能创新驱动制造企业高质量发展的内在机制和边界条件。结果表明：人工智能创新能够有效推动制造企业高质量发展，人工智能创新双元性对高质量发展的影响无显著差异，而行业竞争能够强化人工智能创新对高质量发展的促进作用。进一步地，不同子行业人工智能创新对高质量发展的影响存在差异，劳动密集型企业和技术密集型企业人工智能创新能够促进高质量发展，而资本密集型企业人工智能创新对高质量发展的影响不显著。结论不仅有助于揭示人工智能对制造企业高质量发展的影响机制，还可为企业制定人工智能创新战略提供重要启示。     

A patent-based study of the relationships among technological portfolio,ambidextrous innovation,and firm performance

Although the issue of ambidextrous innovation (AI) is receiving increasing attention, its antecedents, moderators, and consequences remain largely unexplored. The goals of this study are therefore not only to investigate the performance effects of such innovation, but also to identify the possible antecedents and moderators. This study used a sample of 1595 firm-year observations for manufacturing firms in the S&P 500, spanning the period 2001–2013, to test the proposed hypotheses. The results show that a higher level of AI leads to better performance. A firm with a diversified technological portfolio (TP) is thus likely to achieve higher degrees of AI as well as see better firm performance. The empirical findings also reveal that AI plays a mediating role in the relationship between TP and performance. Furthermore, absorptive capacity is found to strengthen the relationship between TP and AI.     

Artificial intelligence: neither Utopian nor apocalyptic impacts soon

ABSTRACT

After a number of AI-winters, AI is back with a boom. There are concerns that it will disrupt society. The immediate concern is whether labor can win a ‘race against the robots’ and the longer-term concern is whether an artificial general intelligence (super-intelligence) can be controlled. This paper describes the nature and context of these concerns, reviews the current state of the empirical and theoretical literature in economics on the impact of AI on jobs and inequality, and discusses the challenge of AI arms races. It is concluded that despite the media hype neither massive jobs losses nor a ‘Singularity’ is imminent. In part, this is because current AI, based on deep learning, is expensive and difficult for most businesses to adopt, not only displaces but in fact also create jobs, and may not be the route to a super-intelligence. Thus AI is unlikely to have either Utopian or apocalyptic impacts soon. Considering Amara's Law, one should however be wary not to underestimate the long-run impacts of AI.     

中国区域空间结构研究的回顾及展望

从区域空间组织构架与模型构建、区域差异和区域分工以及区域结构的影响因素等方面,对我国区域空间结构研究进行了回顾、梳理、归纳,分析认为：未来中国区域空间结构研究应着力完善区域空间结构演化机理尤其是微观机理的研究以及促进区域空间结构优化的政策体系研究、全面展开对区域空间结构影响因素及作用机制的实证研究等。     

Informed consent in societal risk—Benefit decisions

Subjective judgements of fact and value are an inevitable component of societal risk—benefit decisions. Recent psychological research suggests that such judgments, whether made by experts or laypeople, are prone to systematic biases. Such judgmental problems can be handled in a variety of ways when designing decision-making systems, including: (a) ignoring them; (b) excluding laypeople and their fallible judgments; and (c) manipulating people's perceptions so as to induce countervailing biases. The feasibility of such approaches and their impact on the decision-making process are discussed.     

意识形态与政府干预

该文通过分析二战后的跨国数据样本,讨论了殖民地国家独立后政府的认知过程和意识形态的内生性,及其对政府干预的影响.研究表明,一国的殖民地历史经历、禀赋结构、国际环境均会影响该国政府的意识形态及其相应的政策选择,进而影响其长期经济发展的绩效.     

Perceptions of domain experts on impact of foresight on policy making: The case of Japan

In this study, the perceptions of domain experts who participated in foresight activities on the impact on policy making are examined by conducting interviews and surveys on five previous foresights in Japan between 1996 and 2007. The purpose of the study is to examine how domain experts look at the practice of foresight in general, and perceive its overall impact on policy making in particular, in the setting of Japanese foresight conducted in the past 15 years. There are two tasks for doing that in this study: to know the views of scientists and engineers who participated in foresights on the impact of foresights they participated; and to know the effect of respondent's characteristics on their perceptions on impact.There are two main findings of this study. First, the impact on policy making perceived by domain experts who participated in foresight activities in Japan is not very high. Second, there are different patterns of perception on the size of the impact on policy making depending on ages, organizations, member status during foresight, and science and technology areas, and habit of following the situation in general looking for any impacts after the foresight.     

人工智能技术对制造业资本溢价与技能溢价影响的区域异质性研究

人工智能技术会影响资本溢价和技能溢价的观点在国际上已经达成共识,但没有形成统一的研究结论。在我国劳动收入份额持续走低的形势下,有必要探讨人工智能技术对资本溢价和技能溢价带来的影响。文章聚焦我国制造业,构建资本溢价和技能溢价的内生模型,数理演绎人工智能技术对二者的影响机制,并根据我国情势分别对人工智能技术应用先发地区和后发地区的资本溢价和技能溢价走势提出命题,基于我国制造业1993-2019年的省际数据,应用四方程标准化供给面系统法进行了实证检验,进一步地,区分先发地区和后发地区对人工智能技术影响资本溢价和技能溢价的直接效应和偏效应进行了回归分析。研究结果表明：先发地区资本溢价呈微降趋势,技能溢价呈现显著极化态势；后发地区资本溢价呈上升趋势,技能溢价处于”U”型低谷区。相较于后发地区,先发地区资本溢价和技能溢价对人工智能技术的反应更敏感、作用效果更强,且人工智能技术可以通过要素结构、技术效率结构缓解资本溢价水平；人工智能技术可以通过劳动结构、技能效率结构增强技能溢价水平。