An Estimation of the Impact of Oil Shocks on Crude Oil Exporting Economies and Their Trade Partners

This research evaluates the impact of oil price shocks on oil producing and consuming economies; we used a simultaneous equation framework for different countries with business relations. As expected, we found that oil-producers (here, Iran and Russia) benefit from oil price shocks. However contrary to previous findings, they also benefit from the indirect effect through their trade partners. For oil-consuming economies, the effects are more diverse. In some countries, output falls in response to an oil price shock, while some others seem to be relatively immune. Generally, those countries which trade more with oil producers gain indirect benefits via higher demand from oil-producers. For instance, the Netherlands, Germany, France, Italy, the US, the UK, and China get a negative direct effect and positive indirect effect from oil producing countries. This is exactly the result that we anticipated. India has both negative effects directly and indirectly and seems to suffer more in a positive oil price shock. For Japan, Spain, Switzerland and Turkey the results are reversed. They benefit from an oil shock directly and indirectly.     

制度距离与跨国合作创新绩效——文化严格程度的调节作用

国家间差异是影响跨国合作创新的关键因素,然而,已有文献较少涉及国家制度和文化差异影响研究。试图从国家制度和文化视角探讨国家间差异对跨国合作创新的影响。在区分正式制度距离与非正式制度距离的基础上,采用2005-2019年17个国家相互之间共同发明专利数据,实证分析两类制度距离对跨国合作创新绩效的影响,并进一步检验文化严格程度在这一影响过程中的调节作用。研究表明,正式制度距离和非正式制度距离均对跨国合作创新绩效具有显著负向影响;文化严格程度减弱了正式制度距离的影响,却增强了个人主义/集体主义和长期导向/短期导向两个维度上非正式制度距离的影响,但对其它维度和总体非正式制度距离影响的调节作用并不显著。结论不仅揭示了不同国家文化环境下制度距离对跨国合作创新绩效的影响机制,还可为各国制定跨国合作创新战略以及我国应对中美科技合作挑战提供理论指导和参考。     

A new definition and framework for the development of a national technology strategy: The case of nanotechnology for Iran

In this research, we use the concepts of “national technology policy” as well as the “firm technology strategy” in defining a new definition for “national technology strategy”. Then, by examining several national technology strategies in a variety of fields in different countries the national nanotechnology strategy for Iran is developed. Furthermore, using capability-effectiveness matrix and SWOT analysis we identify strategies of nanotechnology development in Iran. Finally, considering other countries' strategies and the results of PROMETHEE Method, we prioritize different areas of nanotechnology for Iranian economy, and test for the validity of the extracted strategies.     

EARNINGS MOBILITY: AN INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON OF ITALY AND FRANCE

In this study we consider two panels of wage-earners, from 1974 to 1988, for Italy and France respectively. The international perspective and the availability of micro-data are particularly interesting for they allow us to address individual characteristics as well as national specificities. In the empirical analysis a partitioning of the earnings distribution by deciles is used and the overall hierarchical mobility of individuals is investigated. Transition matrices are computed in order to compare wage formation and mobility processes across countries, in the period under investigation. A rich battery of mobility indices is presented and the relations between them are studied.
The paper addresses several different issues and compares the results across countries. First, the evolution of earnings and the relative wage profiles are compared across countries. Second, the heterogeneity issue is addressed and some structural characteristics of the sample are studied, namely: cohort and gender differences in earnings.     

INCOME POVERTY AND MULTIDIMENSIONAL DEPRIVATION: LESSONS FROM CROSS‐REGIONAL ANALYSIS

The study of multidimensional deprivation has become one of the most relevant lines of research in the analysis of low‐income households. The search for significant relationships between multidimensional deprivation and income poverty has been a central issue and most empirical studies have found a very weak link. This paper aims at examining the possibility of an aggregation bias in national‐level studies, which could conceal disparities between regions. As regional differences and decentralization processes stand out in Spain as compared to other OECD countries, we focus the analysis on this country. Latent class models are used to define deprivation indices using the Spanish EU‐SILC. The results seem to show that the absence of significant relationships between both phenomena still holds at a regional level. The decomposition methods used in the paper show that it might be due to some regional singularities in some determining factors of income and multidimensional poverty.     

试析哈珀政府的对华人权外交

哈珀政府上台以来，采取了有别于历届政府的、以人权外交为主的对华政策，影响了两国关系的正常发展，也受到了有关各方的批评。要改善与促进双边关系，双方应该加强对话，理解彼此的国情、社会制度和文化传统，扩大共识，缩小分歧；同时加强彼此之间的经济、文化交流与合作。     

Comparing evolutionary dynamics across different national settings: the case of the synthetic dye industry, 1857–1914

Current models of industry evolution suggest that development patterns should be the same across different levels of analysis. In comparing the evolution of the synthetic dye industry at the global level and in the five major producer countries before World War I (Britain, Germany, France, Switzerland and the United States), it is shown that patterns of industry evolution differed significantly across national contexts. Based on a quantitative and qualitative database of all firms and plants in the industry, the paper analyzes how German firms came to dominate the industry and identifies factors such as availabilities of crucial skills, economies of scale and scope, and positive feedback mechanisms between firms and national institutions that likely produced these national differences. The empirical analysis calls for formal models of evolution that incorporate differences in institutional environments.     

Interest rate linkages in Europe before and after the introduction of the European Monetary System

In this paper, possible interest rate linkages between the U.S. and Europe and within Europe are investigated with special reference to the EMS. We use three-month domestic money market rates from 1974 to 1979, from 1983 to 1989, and from 1990 to 1994 for Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Switzerland, the U.K., and the U.S. For all periods, we find a strong German influence on the development in the other European countries and, for the first two periods, at best a very weak direct influence from the U.S. However, Germany does not dominate the other countries totally. There are significant relations between the EMS member countries which are not influenced by Germany, and there are relations to other EMS members than Germany from outside this system. Revised Version, March 1995. — Earlier versions of this paper wer presented at seminars at the Universities of Zürich, Bielefeld and Leuven, and at the Konstanzer Seminar on Monetary Theory and Monetary Policy. We thank the participants of these seminars as well as two anonymous referees for helpful comments and suggestions. — We gratefully acknowledge financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft by Grant No. 322 147. We thank Wilhelm-Johannes Jaenicke for performing the computations and Anna Rushing-Jungeilges for editing the paper in English.     

How (not) to run auctions: The European 3G telecom auctions

There were enormous differences in the revenues from the European “third generation” (3G, or “UMTS”) mobile-phone license auctions, from 20 Euros per capita in Switzerland to 650 Euros per capita in the UK, though the values of the licenses sold were similar. Poor auction designs in some countries facilitated collusion between firms and failed to attract entrants. The sequencing of the auctions was also crucial. We discuss the auctions in the UK, Netherlands, Germany, Italy, Austria, Switzerland, Belgium, Greece and Denmark.     

U.S.-China Economic and Political Relations: Youths’ Perceptions

This paper is a study of the perceptions of young adults in the U.S. and China on the relations between the two nations. We conducted a case study by distributing a 17 question survey to 201 American undergraduate students (NYC) and 164 Chinese undergraduate students (Shanghai). The questions probed their views of U.S. and China’s economic and political systems, the future economic growth and political power in the world of the two nations, and the future political and economic relations between the two powers. The results of our study reveal a number of important perceptions that both U.S. and Chinese students have, some being similar and others being in sharp contrast. Most students in both countries view future political and economic relations between the U.S. and China predominantly as cooperative but only based on each nation’s self-interests. Both Chinese and American students agree that China is gaining political strength and economic influence among the advanced and the emerging nations of the world. While most of the U.S. students believe that China has been and will continue to grow at a much faster rate than the U.S., Chinese students are more likely to believe that this rate of growth is unsustainable. The results from our survey are compared and contrasted to the findings of national surveys for both countries. We believe that the study provides valuable insights into the similarities and differences in viewpoints of the next generation of adults in both nations about future U.S.-China relations.     

Bilateral Donors’ Interest vs. Recipients’ Development Motives in Aid Allocation: Do All Donors Behave the Same?

I provide an overall empirical assessment of the motivations of ODA granted by rich countries to developing countries, as revealed by aid allocation behaviors. Aid motives combine self‐interested and altruistic objectives. I use a three‐dimensional panel dataset, combining the donor, recipient and time dimensions, which shows a lot of heterogeneity in donor behavior. Thanks to the width of this dataset, I can test differences of parameters among donors and, in particular, compare their degrees of altruism. Switzerland, Austria, Ireland and most Nordic countries are among the most altruistic. Australia, France, Italy, and to some extent Japan and the United States are among the most egoistic.     

A cross country explanation of performance of heath care systems: The consumer point of view using the Euro Health Consumer Index

This paper performs an empirical analysis based on a published assessment of several health care systems. This assessment, performed by the think tank Health Consumer Powerhouse, reports outcomes, and ranks accordingly several countries. In turn, this paper explores the ability of national data at explaining the differences observed in that ranking.The innovative features of this paper are mainly two. First, it shows how the Euro Health Consumer Index – which is comprised from 6 indicators – can be used as a single-outcome latent variable. This feature expands the possibilities of incorporating EHCI in future research. Secondly, this paper also serves as an example of the use of Partial Least Squares (PLS) and its characteristics.The analytical technique is PLS. The empirical analysis uses a set of 22 European countries (20 from European Union plus Norway and Switzerland) and departs from a model that relates four latent constructs, one representing National Performance (the aggregated measure of the EHCI) and the others representing financial investment in health care and human and physical resources.The final estimates provide very interesting results. The main result, or a judgment from the point of view of political implications of this research, is that a successful health care system needs mainly financial investment. Secondly, it also benefits – to a lesser extent – from physical capabilities. Finally, the way resources – namely human resources – are organized is possibly critical to the overall performance, measured from a consumer point of view.     

PROBLEMS OF INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTING AGGREGATES BETWEEN COUNTRIES WITH DIFFERENT ECONOMIC SYSTEMS

This paper discusses a number of problems arising in comparisons of levels of national accounting aggregates between countries with different economic systems, notably between countries with market economies and countries with centrally planned economies. It considers problems arising from differences in the national accounting concepts used and problems arising from institutional differences, both of which are viewed as relating to the concepts on which the comparison should be based and the adjustment of national data to these concepts. The final section considers index number problems.     

From the Global to the National Cycle: An Intricate Liaison

This paper examines the linkages between the global business cycle and national cycles. We first analyse the evolution of the global business cycle and present its main properties during global recessions and recoveries. We then consider how the sensitivity of national cycles to the global cycle varies over different phases of the global cycle and depends on country‐specific features. Our findings collectively portray an intricate liaison between the global business cycle and national cycles. National business cycles are tightly linked to the global cycle, but the sensitivity of national cycles to the global cycle is much higher during global recessions than expansions. There are significant differences across countries in how they respond to the global cycle as advanced economies appear to be more sensitive to global recessions than are developing economies. Moreover, countries tend to be more sensitive to the global cycle, the more integrated they are to the global economy.     

Does governance efficiency matter for national innovative capacity? One tale from different countries

Various factors possibly impact on national innovative capacity. Governments are makers and implementers of national innovative policies, then, does its governance efficiency matter for the innovation of a country? Empirical evidence about the relationship between governance efficiency and national innovative capacity is still inadequate. To fill this research gap, the authors, based on the application of machine learning technique, have selected valid variables, conduct analysis with different models using the panel data of 117 countries from 1995 to 2015. The results of different models show that governance efficiency has a significant and positive impact with stability and reliability on innovation. In addition, the authors divide the 117 countries into different regions in accordance with economic development and geographic proximity, found that governance efficiencies of different regions have a heterogeneous but positive impact on national innovative capacity. Finally, potential policy implications are discussed.     

International Transmission of Technology and Trade: The Role of Cross-country Heterogeneity

In the framework where the channel of international transmission of technology is trade in intermediate inputs, this paper investigates the role of heterogeneities across countries. In particular, this paper analyzes how cross-country differences in production structure, national innovative capacity, and absorptive capacity affect the scope and magnitude of international R&D spillovers on productivity. The study is based on the industry-level data set that covers eight OECD countries from 1970 to 1995. It finds that accounting for cross-country differences in each of production structure (using country-specific input–output relations) and national innovative capacity (using patents granted per R&D investment) yields significantly different spillover effects than previous studies. This suggests that the effect of international R&D spillovers depends on both production structure and the pattern of international trade. Further, it finds the absorptive capacity of a country is positively related to spillovers.     

Finance, Banks and the Stability of Emerging Markets

Access to finance and sound banking institutions are two critical elements in any attempt to promote economic development in least-developed countries. Nevertheless, only in recent years have existing relations between financial liberalization, banking practices and the economic performance of emerging market economies been investigated in depth. In this review essay, prompted by a recent book, "Finance for Development" by Barbara Stallings, we discuss some important issues in this promising field of applied research.     

Arms production,national defense spending and arms trade: Examining supply and demand

Scholars have estimated demand functions for national defense spending and investigated international arms trade for a long time. The relationship between supply and demand for military goods has, however, only been examined on aggregate level or in formal models yet. I investigate how the supply of military goods by arms-producing companies and the demand for military goods by both the national government and foreign governments are related by using a panel of up to 195 arms-producing companies in 21 countries for the period 2002–2016. The results show that if the demand for national defense spending increases by 1%, the arms sales by a country’s largest arms-producing companies increase by up to 1.2%. If exports of major conventional weapons increase by 1%, sales increase by up to 0.2%. Arms imports do not affect domestic arms sales because imported and domestically produced arms are complements, and countries mainly import those arms they do not produce themselves. Country-specific estimation results suggest that differences among countries in geopolitical conditions and international relations determine whether a country’s arms industry serves economic rather than security purposes.     

Years of life lost to revolution and war in Iran

How was life expectancy in Iran affected by the Islamic Revolution and subsequent war with Iraq? This study examines the joint effect of regime change and the war against Iraq on life expectancy in Iran between 1978 and 1988. If there had been no revolution and war in Iran, how would the life expectancy of Iranians have developed? To answer this question, we use a synthetic control model to construct a counterfactual Iran based on a weighted average of other comparable countries, which reproduces the situation of pre-revolution Iran but does not experience the revolution and war. We then compare the life expectancies of the counterfactual and actual Iran that underwent a regime change and war with Iraq. Our results indicate that an average Iranian's total life expectancy would have been approximately five years longer without the revolution and war. The revolution had a moderate long-term impact on total life expectancy at birth, with the most significant influence being attributed to the war itself, particularly on male life expectancy. Our main findings are robust to a series of tests, including placebo tests. We investigate possible reasons that may explain the impact on longevity.