Narrating Crisis,Constructing Policy: Economic Ideas and Institutional Change in Syria

During crises, ideas play a decisive role in shaping radical paradigm shifts in economic governance. However, not all crises immediately produce such ‘great transformations’. Why do some ideas result in incremental rather than abrupt change after crisis? To identify mechanisms potentially explaining this variation, I conduct an exploratory process tracing of an understudied case of incremental institutional change: post-independence Syria. Competing political actors in Syria converged on identical policy responses to crisis despite their very different interpretations of its causes. Although power oscillated between these increasingly bitter rivals in the early 1950s, their ideational consensus on economic issues nevertheless led to a decade of steady institutional change that transformed previously fragile government institutions into powerful vehicles of statism. I derive from this analysis the potential causal significance of two new variables – crisis narrative and crisis response – and hypothesise that their configuration can explain variation in post-crisis patterns of institutional change. Ideas can explain not only the new direction of economic governance after crisis, but also the speed and scale of its movement.     

信任及其解释:来自中国的跨省调查分析

“信任”被普遍认为是除物质资本和人力资本之外决定一个国家经济增长和社会进步的主要社会资本。华人社会在许多跨文化研究中被认为是低信任度的社会 ,而在国内 ,许多学者已用“信任危机”概括人与人关系的现状。本文试图通过中国跨省的信任调查数据 ,揭示信任对一个地区的经济绩效 ,例如企业规模、企业发展速度、引进外资等的影响 ,进一步分析影响信任的因素。我们的发现表明 ,一个地区能否被人们所信任与地域文化并不紧密相关 ,更重要的是跟人们之间的交易被重复的可能性、交易的发达程度、教育水平等因素有关。这些证据支持了经济学理论中关于重复博弈导致信任的基本假说。     

Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises

We characterize the values of government debt and the debt's maturitystructure under which financial crises brought on by a loss of confidence inthe government can arise within a dynamic, stochastic general equilibriummodel. We also characterize the optimal policy response of the government tothe threat of such a crisis. We show that when the country's fundamentalsplace it inside the crisis zone, the government may be motivated to reduceits debt and exit the crisis zone because this leads to an economic boom anda reduction in the interest rate on the government's debt. We show thatthis reduction can be gradual if debt is high or the probability of a crisisis low. We also show that, while lengthening the maturity of the debt canshrink the crisis zone, credibility-inducing policies can have perverseeffects.     

International monetary policy coordination in a new Keynesian model with NICE features

The authors provide a static two-country new Keynesian model to teach two related questions in international macroeconomics: the international transmission of unilateral monetary policy decisions and the gains coming from the coordination monetary rules. They concentrate on “normal times” and use a thoroughly graphical approach to analyze the questions at hand. In this setting monetary policy is conducted using interest rates rules and economic integration between nations does not necessarily create the case for the coordination of monetary policy. In particular, they show that the conduct of optimal national monetary policies does not make any difference with the coordination of national policies, as this creates a situation where the international monetary system operates “Near an International Cooperative Equilibrium” (NICE).     

政策不确定性如何影响企业绩效——一项基于Meta分析的检验

企业发展与宏观政策环境密不可分,关于政策不确定性与企业绩效的关系仍有诸多未解之惑。根据企业绩效的具体内容将其细分为企业经营绩效、创新绩效以及投资绩效,采用Meta分析方法,揭示政策不确定性对企业绩效3个方面的不同影响,并分析二者关系的调节因素。结果发现：政策不确定性能够抑制企业经营绩效和投资绩效,但能够显著提升企业创新绩效。由于存在企业性质、企业规模、市场化程度和政治关联等调节因素差异,导致政策不确定性与企业绩效关系研究存在分歧。结论能够为政策不确定性环境下企业创新发展战略实施提供借鉴,并为地方政府官员更替、公共政策制定等提供参考。     

Production and financial linkages in inter-firm networks: structural variety, risk-sharing and resilience

The paper analyzes how (production and financial) inter-firm networks can affect firms’ default probabilities and observed default rates. A simple theoretical model of shock transfer is built to investigate some stylized facts on how firm-idiosyncratic shocks are allocated in the network, and how this allocation changes firm default probabilities. The model shows that the network works as a perfect “risk-pooling” mechanism, when it is both strongly connected and symmetric. But the “risk-sharing” does not necessarily reduce default rates, unless the shock firms face is lower on average than their financial capacity. Conceived as cases of symmetric inter-firm networks, industrial districts might have a comparative disadvantage in front of heavy crises.     

Lobbying, corruption and “optimal” tariff

This paper explores how a government officer enacts “optimum” import policy when confronting lobbies on trade policies from both domestic and foreign firms in a transition economy. Two results are found: firstly, if the inducement from the foreign firm on the government officer works, then the optimum tariff is negative, that is, import subsidy. However, this subsidy will turn to a positive tariff rate with the increasing lobbying inducement from domestic firms. Secondly, zero tariff duty is not an optimum choice under most circumstances. Besides, an asymmetric result is that when these two firms’ marginal costs are different, the optimum policy is to levy an import tariff on the one whose marginal cost is relatively small, while the other firm will get an import subsidy.     

Study on Medium- and Long-Term Fiscal Policies to Cope with Climate Change under the “Dual Carbon” Goals

Carbon peaking and carbon neutrality constitute an extensive, profound and systemic economic and social change. It is worthwhile to explore how fiscal policy, as a key institutional arrangement in the public policy system to cope with climate change, can play a fundamental and pillar role. Based on literatures, theories and empirical materials, this paper systematically explores the relationship between climate change and public finance. The fiscal impact of climate change will eventually be reflected in fiscal behavior, fiscal costs and fiscal relations, and the fiscal system has the adaptability of an “automatic stabilizer” and the proactiveness to enable the Discretionary Approaches function when facing climate change impacts. This implies such a governance logic of fiscal policy that is systematic, forward-looking and flexible in addressing climate change. In the future, it is necessary to further incorporate climate change or related environmental factors into the fiscal policy framework, target the two key aspects of mitigation and adaptation, and carry out a holistic, systematic and forward-looking reform of the existing fiscal expenditure policy, fiscal revenue policy, fiscal investment and financing policy, government budget system, government procurement policy and ecological compensation policy. While highlighting the “governance” function of fiscal policy in addressing climate change, Chinese government needs to strengthen the coordination and collaboration between fiscal policy tools and other public policies, and magnify the governance effectiveness of fiscal policy in the process of addressing climate change. This paper helps understand the positioning, role and influence of fiscal policy in the process of addressing climate change, provides a basis for better playing the fundamental and underpinning role of the modern fiscal system in the governance of ecological civilization, and presents an analytical framework for building a theoretical system of ecological fiscal governance.     

Quantifying the impact of economic crises on infant mortality in advanced economies

Policy makers rely on a mix of government spending and tax cuts to address the imbalances in the economy during an economic crisis, by promoting price stability and renewed economic growth. However, little discussion appears to focus explicitly on quantifying the cost of economic crises in terms of human lives, especially the lives of the most vulnerable members of society, infants. Using a statistical approach that is robust to the increases of mortality in outlying years, we quantify the effect that economic crises, periods of prolonged economic recession, have on infant mortality. Moreover, we investigate whether different levels of public spending on health across advanced industrialized democracies can mitigate the impact of crises on infant mortality. We find that economic crises are extremely costly and lead to a more than proportional increase in infant mortality in the short-run. Substantial public spending on health is required in order to limit their impact.     

为宏观调控正名

宏观调控是现代市场经济中一个具有特定内涵的经济范畴,而不是泛指政府对涉及全局经济问题的干预。由于市场经济体制的不完善,我国在进行宏观调控时还不得不暂时采取某些计划体制下的政策和手段,但是,要认清这些非市场运作的局限性和过渡性,更不能因此而修改宏观调控概念,如把宏观调控等同于政府干预,认为宏观调控应包括结构调整,应包括对企业或行业的“有保有压”等。     

Self-fulfilling crises with default and devaluation

We characterize optimal debt policy in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of defaults and devaluations in which self-fulfilling crises can arise. When the government cannot commit to repay its debt and cannot commit to maintain the exchange rate, consumers’ expectations of devaluation make the safe level of government debt very low. We show that, when the debt is in the crises zone—where self-fulfilling crisis can occur—the government finds it optimal to reduce the debt to exit the zone. The lower the probability that consumers assign to devaluation, however, the greater is the number of periods that the government will choose to take to exit the crisis zone. We argue that our model can help understand events in Argentina in 2001–2002 and throw light on some aspects of the current EMU sovereign debt crisis.     

后经济危机时期我国经济政策的选择:基于历史经验与现实的思考

本文基于上世纪30年代以来几次经济危机后美国所采取的不同的经济政策,研究了后经济危机时期的政策选择对国家经济结构、经济增长及综合实力的影响.认为在后危机时代美国的政策选择对其综合实力的提升具有重要作用.同时,基于对各国次贷危机时采取的经济政策的现实思考,本文提出中国后经济危机时代应采用的经济政策,主要包括调整升级产业结构和转变经济发展方式、及时退出扩张性的财政和货币政策、提高城乡居民收入与构建福利国家等.     

Lessons from the 1997 and the 2008 Crises in Korea

The Korean economy was hit harder than anticipated by the global financial crisis. In the first phase, large capital outflows led to a severe liquidity strain in the foreign exchange market, resulting in a rapid depreciation of the exchange rate. Then, in the second phase, the contraction of global demand led to a collapse of exports and a sharp decline in economic activity, raising concerns about a full‐fledged financial crisis in Korea. This paper describes how the global financial crisis spilled over into the Korean economy and how the Korean government responded to the financial turmoil. It also provides the background and rationale for the Korean government's decisions to adopt specific policy measures. Based on Korean experiences during the 1997 and the 2008 crises, this paper documents the lessons learned from the past two crises and identifies several important policy issues.     

Tax cuts and enterprises’ R&D intensity: Evidence from a natural experiment in China

This paper studies the impact of tax cuts on enterprises’ R&D intensity. We use a natural experiment involving China’s business tax changing to value-added tax (“BT to VAT”) to identify any causality. The results reveal that this tax reform has prompted enterprises to increase their research and development (R&D) investment. Specifically, a stronger ability to transfer tax, results in this change having a more significant promotional effect on enterprises’ R&D intensity. Further analysis demonstrates that firms with different ownership types and in different industries respond differently to the “BT to VAT” policy. Our findings are only significant for non-state-owned and other modern service enterprises. This paper provides a theoretical and empirical basis for detailed analyses of the effects of “BT to VAT” policy, particularly the government’s subsequent improvement to the tax reform policy, to further stimulate enterprise investments in R&D as well as industrial upgrading.     

Indonesia After the Asian Crisis*

Indonesia was deeply affected by the 1997–1998 crisis, more so than its East Asian neighbors. Its economic contraction was deeper and more prolonged. It was the only one to experience a (temporary) loss of macroeconomic control. It also suffered “twin crises,” in the sense that its serious economic and financial problems were accompanied by regime collapse. Consequently, recovery was a slow and complex process, as new institutions had to be created, and old ones reformed under successive short‐lived administrations. But this process is largely over. The directly elected president with a strong popular mandate is in power. The new institutional framework for economic policy‐making is in place. Macroeconomic stability has been restored. Although growth has yet to return to pre‐crisis levels, by 2004 per capita income and poverty incidence had recovered to levels prevailing in the mid‐1990s, and in the circumstances economic recovery has arguably proceeded about as quickly as could reasonably have been expected.     

A corporate balance-sheet approach to currency crises

This paper presents a general equilibrium currency crisis model of the ‘third generation’, in which the possibility of currency crises is driven by the interplay between private firms’ credit-constraints and nominal price rigidities. Despite our emphasis on microfoundations, the model remains sufficiently simple that the policy analysis can be conducted graphically. The analysis hinges on four main features (i) ex post deviations from purchasing power parity; (ii) credit constraints a la Bernanke-Gertler; (iii) foreign currency borrowing by domestic firms; (iv) a competitive banking sector lending to firms and holding reserves and a monetary policy conducted either through open market operations or short-term lending facilities. We derive sufficient conditions for the existence of a sunspot equilibrium with currency crises. We show that an interest rate increase intended to support the currency in a crisis may not be effective, but that a relaxation of short-term lending facilities can make this policy effective by attenuating the rise in interest rates relevant to firms.     

Firms and industries in evolutionary economics: lessons from Marshall, Young, Steindl and Penrose

Evolutionary economists have tended to assess firms and industries separately, neglecting the role of their interaction in the process of economic growth and development. We trace the separation of firms and industries to the introduction of population thinking in the discipline of industrial economics, including some broadly evolutionary analyses. If researchers conflate a population of firms with an industry, they introduce “thin” means of relating firms to one another and to industries. Despite his device of the ‘representative firm’, Marshall develops “thick” means of relating firms to industries by means of their internal and external organizations. Penrose avoids the notion of industry by focussing on heterogeneous and potentially mobile firms. Young and Steindl develop mundane explanations of firms’ relations within groups and locate the impetus for economic growth in a poorly understood environment. We conclude that evolutionary economists should revisit firms’ boundaries, not in the sense of explaining the existence of firms but in a relating and communicating sense in which boundaries signify the selective means of firms’ relationships.     

Exchange Rate Regimes and Currency Crises: an Evaluation using Extreme Value Theory*

We test whether the exchange regime in place has an impact on the vulnerability of countries to currency crises. Our paper is distinguishable from others (i) in its use of extreme value theory to identify currency crisis periods and (ii) in using two separate designations for the exchange regime in place. The first is the self‐reported or announced exchange rate system. The second classification scheme, by Levy‐Yeyati and Sturzenegger, is based on the relative movements of international reserves and exchange rates. The Levy‐Yeyati and Sturzenegger procedure is intended to reveal the actual as distinct from the “legal” exchange arrangement. We find, interestingly, that the announced exchange regime has an impact on the likelihood of currency crises, while the “true” or observed regime does not. Announced pegged exchange regimes increase the risk of currency crisis even if, in reality, the exchange rate system in place is not pegged.     

On Environmental Policy and Permitting

The literature on environmental policy under adverse selection usually assumes that firms' profit vary monotonically with a private information parameter. However, it is easy to demonstrate using standard production setups that regularity is not the rule. We show that policy requirements are very sensitive to this assumption. In particular, the optimal instrument resembles more an “adaptable” pollution standard than the economic instrument of an environmental tax. We also show that permitting, which results in some firms overinvesting in pollution‐control equipment, does not serve the objective of improving the environment but rather allows the agency to increase the proceeds of the policy.     

INTEREST GROUPS AND ECONOMIC POLICY: EXPLAINING THE PATTERN OF PROTECTION IN THE BRAZILIAN AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

This article examines the determinants of the pattern of protection across products in the Brazilian agricultural sector from 1969 to 1989. Three key determinants of policy are explored: interest group pressure, government objectives, and structural change associated with economic crisis and a change in political regime. The principal agricultural policies are analyzed, and nominal protection coefficients (NPCs) and producer subsidy equivalents (PSEs) are calculated. When NPCs are used as the dependent variable, econometric results indicate that interest group characteristics such as group size were an important determinant of the pattern of protection. With PSEs, government efforts to raise tax revenues, generate foreign exchange, and control inflation played a more significant role. The results of this paper suggest that future studies of the political economy of protection should pay more attention to the specification of the dependent variable because the conclusions can depend crucially on this choice.