A formal model of theory choice in science

Summary. Since the work of Thomas Kuhn, the role of social factors in the scientific enterprise has been a major concern in the philosophy and history of science. In particular, conformity effects among scientists have been used to question whether science naturally progresses over time. Using neoclassical economic reasoning, this paper develops a formal model of scientific theory choice which incorporates social factors. Our results demonstrate that the influence of social factors on scientific progress is more complex than previously thought. The patterns of theory choice predicted by the model seem consistent with historical episodes of theory change. Received: April 8, 1997; revised version: April 30, 1998     

A unified beta pricing theory

This paper derives Ross's mutual fund separation theory and a new, equilibrium version of Ross's arbitrage pricing theory as special cases of a general theory. The paper also reveals that the two theories are identical in their predictions of asset prices and portfolio returns. The capital asset pricing model (a restricted case of the mutual fund separation theory) receives special treatment.     

Three approaches to technology in science and their organizational correlates

Three alternative approaches to organizational technology and their application to science and university departments are examined. Perrow's model of organizational goals provides the framework for generating and testing hypotheses regarding standardized units of production and their correlates on the one hand, and stability and change on the other hand. The results and implications of Perrow's model to the science system are discussed and elaborated. Enough evidence is provided to suggest that the notion of technology might be intuitively well understood, but its construct validity is incomplete and needs further investigation. Even in the sciences, with a limited selection of fields, one finds considerable differences among the three approaches to technology.     

Dynamic behavior of a simple neoclassical model with wealth and capital unequal

The paper analyzes the standard one-good neoclassical dynamic model in which wages to consumer-workers are paid in IOU's issued by producers. The wealth of consumers consists of their accumulated IOU's and the model differs from the traditional one in that it is not assumed that consumers' wealth is exactly equal to the value of the capital stock. The dynamic behavior of this model turns out to be quite different from the traditional one, the main result being that, in the absence of “excessive savings” by consumers, the golden rule will always be the unique stable steady state.     

从传统劳动理论到现代科学劳动理论——陈征教授的科学劳动思想评述

马克思在科学技术还未发展到相当高度时,提出了"科学技术是生产力"、生产力中包括科学的重要论断,提出了"科学劳动"范畴。陈征教授在长期深入研究马克思主义经济理论的基础上,详细阐述了有关"科学劳动"的基本原理及其重要意义;并根据现代科学技术发展的新情况,进一步发展了科学劳动理论,创造性地提出了"现代科学劳动"的新理论。进一步证明马克思主义在当代依然具有巨大的生命力。     

Decision theory made relevant: Between the software and the shrink

Decision theory offers a formal approach to decision making, which is often viewed and taught as the rational way to approach managerial decisions. Half a century ago it generated high hopes of capturing and perhaps replacing intuition, and providing the “right” answer in practically all managerial situations. Today it seems fair to say that decision theory has not lived up to these expectations. Behavioral science provides ample evidence that managers fail to follow the dicta of decision theory, even when these are explained to them. As a result, executives often find decision theory frustrating and useless and prefer to rely on their intuition. This paper suggests that this extreme conclusion is unwarranted and calls for a re-appraisal of decision theory. We propose that it should not always be regarded as a mathematical tool that produces the answer; rather, it can be viewed as a framework for a dialog between the decision maker and the decision theorist. In one extreme, the decision theorist studies the problem and provides the “correct’’ answer. But in another, the decision theorist only challenges the decision maker's intuition and logic. In between, a whole gamut of possible dialogs exists, in which decision theory doesn't replace intuition, but supports and refines it.     

基于组织惰性视角的组织理论演进路径研究

从克服组织惰性的视角出发，古典管理理论所倡导的“一场全面的心理革命”、行为科学理论对人的关注、管理科学理论对组织管理的重新认识以及当代组织理论所推崇的开放系统与组织学习理念，都是在打破传统组织理论范式的基础上建立起来的。人们正是在不断克服组织惰性的过程中推动了组织理论与实践的创新。     

Technology and social change: William Fielding Ogburn revisited

This paper reviews William Fielding Ogburn's work on technology and social change. An overview of his basic theory is presented, as well as later refinements found in such works as Recent Social Trends in the United States, Technological Trends and National Policy, The Social Effects of Aviation, and other books and articles. It is suggested that while Ogburn is most widely remembered for his thesis of cultural lag, some of his later work on technology and social change is actually more important and deserves reconsideration and extension. One kind of extension might follow the lines of a systems approach rather than continuing the technological primacy strategy that Ogburn is normally considered to have used. The paper also surveys Ogburn's important work in the areas of technology, planning, and social policy, including materials on technology assessment. Ogburn's nontechnocratic approach to these questions, as well as his insistence that social scientists have a great deal to offer to the formulation of technological and social policies, are some of his most important contributions. Questions of technology and social change remain important contemporary issues, yet there is a surprising paucity of social science work on these crucial topics. Further study, extension, and reformulation of Ogburn's pioneering ideas offer fruitful means of embarking on new social science analyses of technology and society.     

Controllability and the theory of economic policy: A critical view

It is argued in this paper that the concept of controllability in spite of its intuitive appeal is of limited interest for the theory of economic policy. Controllability implies that a given target can be attained even if the number of instruments is less than the number of independent targets. But there is no guarantee that the economy will be able to stay there. Tirbergen's rule is concerned with the existence of a static equilibrium solution. The controllability concept is concerned with the existence of a dynamic path towards it. But it does not imply that controllability is a dynamic generalization of Tinbergen's rule.     

Scientific and technical planning in the People's Republic of China

At a time when Western market economies are struggling with ways of directing and stimulating technological innovation, China, with a highly centralized system for the planning and coordination of science and technology, offers an unusual perspective on the feasibility and operations of a large-scale, national organization of scientific and technical resources. This paper describes the mechanics of the science and technology planning process in the Chinese system and then draws conclusions on a variety of pertinent issues, such as: whether or not planning is actually conducted at a macrolevel; what are the useful sources of information for scientific and technical decision making within the system; what are the motivations for doing research in China's planned economy and how do they affect the research that is done; and, in summation, does the Chinese attempt at macroscience and technology planning really work?     

要用科学态度研究马克思主义经济学

本文首先在阐述科学的含义、基本特征及检验一种理论是否为科学的标准的基础上,分析了马克思主义经济学的规范性和实证性以及相应的科学属性和意识形态属性,指出马克思主义经济学是实证理论而非规范理论,既是科学理论,又是意识形态.然后,对作为科学理论的马克思主义经济学所面临的十大难题进行了研讨.最后,就如何发展和创新马克思主义经济学,提出了三项基本原则.     

Monoculture versus diversity in competition economics

Economics rightfully represents the major basis for competitionpolicy. Next to generating knowledge about competition and itswelfare effects, the currently popular ‘more-economicapproach’ is charged with a number of additional hopesand expectations. While this article highlights the benefitsof economics-based competition policy, it takes a cautious stancetowards excessive expectations, in particular regarding theidea that a monocultural, ‘unified’ competitiontheory as an exact, objective and unerring scientific approachto antitrust could make normative assessment and generalisationssuperfluous. Diversity in competition economics is advocatedin two ways. First, competition economics is empirically characterisedby a considerable pluralism of theories and policy paradigms.Second, it is demonstrated that this diversity of theories istheoretically beneficial for future scientific progress. Asno ultimate competition theory can ever be expected., the ‘more-economicapproach’ must be extended in order to embrace diversity.     

Keynes's errors in the liquidity preference versus loanable funds controversy

How Keynes could have been so persistently wrong in the liquidity preference versus loanable funds controversy remains a puzzling enigma. This paper attempts to shed some light on this puzzle by tracing the evolution of Keynes's thinking and by looking at some of the policy issues with which he was concerned. In particular, it argues that two errors were inherent in Keynes's reasoning process. As a result, he regarded the two theories as “radically opposed” and thought that the loanable funds theory was a “wrong” theory with misleading policy implications.     

用开放的复杂巨系统理论探讨现代企业管理问题

复杂性科学是上世纪80年代兴起的科学研究新领域,许多研究成果在自然科学、社会科学、管理科学、人文科学等领域得到广泛的应用。本文概述了中国著名科学家钱学森在世界科学前沿领域复杂性研究中的重要成果--开放的复杂巨系统理论及其方法论,并将这一理论用于研究现代企业管理创新的问题,以期抛砖引玉。     

PARADIGM SHIFT: A MEAN FIELD GAME APPROACH

This paper analyses the consequences of young researchers' scientific choice on the dynamics of sciences. We develop a simple two state mean field game model to analyse the competition between two paradigms based on Kuhn's theory of scientific revolution. The dynamics of the model are driven by the scientific choice of young researchers at the beginning of their career. Despite the possibility of multiple equilibria, the model exhibits at least one stable solution in which both para digms coexist. The occurrence of shocks on the parameters may induce the shift from one paradigm to the other. During this shift, researchers' choice is proved to be having a great impact on the evolution of sciences.     

On the existence of lindahl equilibria in economies with a measure space of non-transitive consumers

We present a generalization of Roberts' theorem on the existence of Lindahl equilibria in economies with a measure space of agents. The principal contribution of this paper is methodological. We show that by formulating the problem in what we consider to be its natural infinite dimensional setting, the basic structure of Debreu's proof in the theory of value can be applied. Our proof makes use of functional analysis and relies, in particular, on Artstein's characterization of weak sequential convergence in L₁(μ).     

On the role of science in the postindustrial society: “Logos”—the empire builder

The hypothesis that language and DNA represent two stages of the same evolutionary path is briefly evaluated. Volterra equations, so useful in describing the dynamics of competing systems are, in fact, equally efficient in describing social behavior, as shown in numerous examples. The emergence of language first, and science later, interpreted as a metalanguage, are attributed to a “hypercyclization” of basic competing utterances in analogy of hypercyclization of quasi-species of replicating molecules in Manfred Eigen's theory of DNA development and evolution.     

A comparative dynamic analysis of a growth model under alternate policy regimes

Comparative dynamic analysis is conducted on a growth model with variable price levels and wage rates. A perturbation technique is used to compare the economy's time paths near a balanced growth path in response to alternate policy regimes. Various dynamic policy multipliers are calculated in response to some of the alternate policy regimes such as the balanced-budget fiscal regime, the constant price regime, the full-employment regime, etc., to examine their dynamic implications on the economy's behavior. Temporary deviations in the fiscal variables are found to leave no permanent effects under all but one of the regimes examined.     

Dividend taxes,corporate investment,and ‘Q’

Taxes on corporate distributions have traditionally been regarded as a ‘double tax’ on corporate income. This view implies that while the total effective tax rate on corporate source income affects real economic decisions, the distribution of this tax burden between the shareholders and the corporation is irrelevant. Recent research has suggested an alternative to this traditional view. One explanation of why firms in the United States pay dividends in spite of the heavy tax liabilities associated with this form of distribution is that the stock market capitalizes the tax payments associated with corporate distributions. This capitalization leaves investors indifferent at the margin between a corporation's decision to pay out dividends or to retain earnings. This alternative view holds that while changes in the dividend tax rate will affect shareholder wealth, they will have no impact on corporate investment decisions.This paper develops econometric tests which distinguish between these two views of dividend taxation. By extending Tobin's ‘q’ theory of investment to incorporate taxes at both the corporate and personal levels, the implications of each view for corporate investment decisions can be derived. The competing views may be tested by comparing the performance of investment equations estimated under each theory's predictions. British time series data are particularly appropriate for testing hypotheses about dividend taxes because of the substantial postwar variation in effective tax rates on corporate distributions. The econometric results suggest that dividend taxes have important effects on investment decisions.