The optimal use of fines and imprisonment

This paper examines the use of fines and imprisonment to deter individuals from engaging in harmful activities. These sanctions are analyzed separately as well as together, first for identical risk-neutral individuals and then for two groups of risk-neutral individuals who differ by wealth. When fines are used alone and individuals are identical, the optimal fine and probability of apprehension are such that there is some ‘underdeterrence’. If individuals differ by wealth, then the optimal fine for the high wealth group exceeds the fine for the low wealth group. When imprisonment is used alone and individuals are identical, the optimal imprisonment term and probability may be such that there is either underdeterrence or overdeterrence. If individuals differ by wealth, the optimal imprisonment term for the high wealth group may be longer or shorter than the term for the low wealth group. When fines and imprisonment are used together, it is desirable to use the fine to its maximum feasible extent before possibly supplementing it with an imprisonment term. The effects of risk aversion of these results are also discussed.     

Two comments on tax evasion

A simple theoretical model of tax evasion behaviour is used to analyse whether a large fine (with small probability of detection) is a more powerful deterrent to tax evasion than a high probability of detection (with a small penalty). The effect of a higher tax rate on the amount of tax escaping the tax collector is also examined.     

Information feedback and contest structure in rent-seeking games

We investigate the effects of information feedback in rent-seeking games with two different contest structures. In the share contest a contestant receives a share of the rent equal to her share of rent-seeking expenditures, while in the lottery contest a contestant wins the entire rent with probability equal to her share of rent-seeking expenditures. In share contests average expenditures converge to equilibrium levels when subjects only get feedback about own earnings, and additional feedback about rivals' choices and earnings raises average expenditures. In lottery contests information feedback has an opposite, and even stronger, effect: when subjects only get feedback on own earnings we observe high levels of rent dissipation, usually exceeding the value of the rent, and additional feedback about rivals' choices and earnings has a significant moderating influence on expenditures. In a follow-up treatment we make information feedback endogenous by allowing contestants in a lottery contest to make public or private expenditures. Subjects make the vast majority of expenditures privately and overall excess expenditures are similar to the lottery contest with own feedback.     

Lotteries, Group Size, and Public Good Provision

We analyze the effect of group size on public good provision under the Morgan (2000) lottery mechanism. For a pure public good, the lottery performs quite well as public good provision is found to increase in group size, even when the lottery prize is held constant. By contrast, for fully rival public goods, per capita provision is found to decrease in group size, even when the lottery prize is proportional to group size. Further, the per capita level of provision will approach zero when group size is sufficiently large.     

The Optimal Use of Fines and Imprisonment If Governments Do Not Maximize Welfare

We consider a stylized model of crime and punishment in which the prosecution policy is defined by three variables: the size of punishment, the type of punishment, and the detection probability. We derive the optimal type of punishment under the assumption that the detection probability is chosen by a government whose objective function places a higher weight on the government's budget than the social welfare function does. We show that for serious crimes exclusive imprisonment is welfare maximizing. If costs of imprisonment are taken into account, the optimal punishment is a prison term with an additional fine that is smaller or equal to the costs of the prison term. For less serious crimes, fines without imprisonment are welfare maximizing. Therefore, this paper demonstrates that the standard result of the literature that fines should be used whenever feasible need not hold in the presence of a rent‐seeking government. Moreover, it offers a new explanation for the widespread use of mandatory imprisonment for serious crimes.     

Consuming your way to efficiency: Public goods provision through non-distortionary tax lotteries

We revisit the classical result that taxation of private consumption is distortionary and therefore precludes the efficient provision of public goods. We introduce a nonlinear consumption tax which we call a ‘tax lottery’. Under this scheme, an ad-valorem consumption tax is supplemented with a lottery in which consumers can win cash prizes. The winning probabilities in this lottery depend on all consumers' private good consumption decisions. We show that for a given ad-valorem tax, an appropriately designed lottery can implement an efficient allocation in pure-strategy Nash equilibrium. The lottery component corrects the distortion in private consumption due to the ad-valorem tax, while the resulting tax revenue is sufficient to efficiently provide the public good and pay out the lottery prize.     

我国彩票销售收人的实证分析——基于省际面板数据

本文利用2002-2010年我国31个省市区面板数据,运用固定效应模型分析了我国各省彩票销售收入的影响因素,发现各省市区经济发展水平、生活水平、百万大奖的个数、彩票投注终端机的密度是影响彩票销售收入的主要因素。结论是：以济困、公益等为宗旨和理念的彩票业已经陷入一个悖论;现阶段开展赛马博彩是一个可行选择。     

Explaining Overbidding in First Price Auctions Using Controlled Lotteries

In this paper, we study the behavior of individuals when facing two different, but incentive-wise identical, institutions. We pair the first price auction with an equivalent lottery. Once a subject is assigned a value for the auctioned object, the first price auction can be modeled as a lottery in which the individual faces a given probability of winning a certain payoff. This set up allows us to explore to what extent the misperception of the probability of winning in the auction is responsible for bidders in a first price auction to bidding above the risk neutral Nash equilibrium prediction. The first result we obtain is that individuals, even though facing the same choice over probability/payoff pairs, behave differently depending on the type of choice they are called to make. When facing an auction, subjects with high values tend to bid significantly above the bid they choose in the corresponding lottery environment. We further find that in both the lottery and the auction environments, subjects tend to bid in excess of the bid predicted by the risk neutral model, at least for intermediate range values. Finally, we find that the difference between the lottery behavior and the auction behavior is substantially, but not totally, eliminated by showing the subjects the probability of winning the auction.     

台湾公益彩券盈余配额公平性之探讨

本研究收集台湾省2007年1月至2009年5月公益彩券营业报告数据，运用Excel软件内键函数追行统计分析，研究主轴是要探讨各县市获得彩券盈余补助款的公平性．研究结果发现各县市民聚“购买彩券总金额”与“分得盈余补助总金额”两者仅部分相关，但是民泉“平均购买彩券金额”与“平均获得盈余补助金额”两者呈现不相关，换言之多购买彩券县市的民众未必能多获得补助款，彩券计算公式权数不公允，致使同为台湾省国民却有不同之公益补助款。公益补助款关系着地方民众生活质量，以租税公平角度而言，享有基本额度补助款是每位国民都可提出的正当要求，但依据本研究分析结果，发现差距颇大，其中以彰化县民众最为吃亏，综合研究结果，本研究建议公益彩券计算公式有必要进一步修正与改追。     

Are experts better than potential users in predicting the uptake of an innovation? Extending the use of the Juster Scale

Are experts or potential users better at predicting the success of a new product? To explore this question we used an eleven-point probability scale, the Juster Scale, to ask various groups of people about their probability of taking up a new product and also their assessment of its chance of its success in the marketplace. Although this type of scale generally performs better than intention scales it tends to over-predict when used in a repertoire market and we examine its performance for a boundary condition of such a market. We also explored the use of the scale as a projective research tool which is a novel application. In this study the product was a new type of charity lottery. The study was undertaken in the month prior to the lottery closing and we subsequently knew the actual outcome. The Juster Scale generally performed poorly as a predictor in this context. The predictions from the experts were no more accurate than those of the general public but none had direct knowledge of an equivalent lottery. This exploratory study concluded that the actual behaviour of a sample of relevant consumers, where the product is available, is better for forecasting than asking for estimates of their potential behaviour, that is, behaviour predicts behaviour better than probabilities of behaviour.     

Network externalities in consumer spending on lottery games: evidence from Spain

We use data from two nationally representative Spanish surveys in 2005 and 2006 to investigate spending on lottery games. Estimates from Tobit and double hurdle models of participation in lottery markets and spending on lottery tickets find that frequent participation in one game is not associated with an increased or decreased probability of participating in other games, but is associated with increased spending on other games. Consumer spending on different lottery games exhibits inter-related consumption decisions. Also, the assumptions underlying the double hurdle model, but not the Tobit model, better describe consumer spending on lottery tickets in Spain.     

To Comply or Not To Comply? Pollution Standard Setting Under Costly Monitoring and Sanctioning

In this paper, we characterize optimal regulatory policies composed of a pollution standard, a probability of inspection and a fine for non-compliance, in a context where both monitoring and sanctioning are socially costly, and the penalty may include gravity and non-gravity components at the regulator’s discretion. Under given penalties, the optimal policy entails compliance with the standard as long as a quite intuitive condition is met. Non-compliant policies may include standards even below the pollution levels that minimize the sum of abatement costs and external damages. Interestingly, the appropriate structure of the penalty under non-compliance is highly progressive, while the best possible shape of the fine under compliance is linear. If the regulator is entitled to choose the structure of the fine, linear penalties are socially preferred and the optimal policy induces compliance.      

The role of market forces in EPA enforcement activity

As corporate concern regarding environmental issues grows, recent studies have debated the stock market's role as an enforcer of environmental regulation. We examine stock market reactions to EPA judicial actions on a sample of publicly traded firms from 1972–91. Specifically, we find that (a) there is a significant decline of 0.43% in violator firm value during the week of settlement; (b) the market penalty is unrelated to fine size, (c) more pronounced for citations under the Clean Air Act, (d) for repeat violators, and (e) for more recent EPA actions. These stock market reactions appear to reinforce the intent of EPA enforcement efforts.Funding from the United States Environmental Protection Agency (Grant #818496-01-0) is gratefully acknowledged. We would like to thank John Dennis, Tom Adams, V. Denise Saunders, and Robert Papetti for helpful discussions and Bill Lewellen for his insightful comments. The research assistance of Dan Hillis, Nick Wade, and Chris Munger was invaluable. Suggestions by anonymous referees at this journal have greatly improved this paper.     

Pollution standards, technology investment and fines for non-compliance

In this paper, we analyze whether it is socially desirable that fines for exceeding pollution standards depend not only on the degree of non-compliance but also on technology investment efforts by the polluting firms. For that purpose, we consider a partial equilibrium framework where a representative firm chooses the investment effort and the pollution level in response to an environmental policy composed of a pollution standard, an inspection probability and a fine for non-compliance. We find that the fine should strictly decrease with the investment effort when (i) there are administrative costs of sanctioning; (ii) the optimal policy induces non-compliance; and (iii) either the fine is sufficiently convex in the degree of non-compliance or the investment effort decreases marginal abatement costs significantly.     

Accident Law: Efficiency May Require an Inefficient Standard

In a world with risk-neutral agents in which accidents occur with a positive probability, liability rules will only induce efficient behaviour if these rules impose the full (marginal) costs of an action on the parties. However, institutional restrictions or bilateral activity choices can prevent the full internalization of costs. A mechanism is proposed which guarantees an efficient outcome: monetary fines which are not related to the occurrence of an accident. Such a mechanism requires individuals to violate the standard of care in order to trigger the fine payments. Hence, efficiency requires an excessive standard.     

Charitable Lottery Structure and Fund Raising: Theory and Evidence

Do fixed-prize charitable lotteries generate more net revenue than do revenue-dependent lotteries? I present the results of an experiment designed to test a theoretical prediction of the relationship between the prize structure of a lottery funding a public good and individuals' participation in the lottery. I find that a fixed-prize lottery configuration induces significantly greater participation and a significantly higher level of public good funding than does a revenue-dependent lottery.     

Punishment in a Regulatory Setting: Experimental Evidence from the VCM

To analyze the effectiveness of punishment in inducing regulatory compliance, we modify a standard public goods experiment to include a financial penalty for free riding. The design allows us to vary both punishment probability and severity. We introduce the punishment mechanism in both a one-time and a repeated treatment and find that compliance (contributing to the public good) is increasing in expected punishment cost in both treatments. We also find that punishment severity has a larger effect on behavior than punishment probability. In the repeated treatment, we find that past punishment has a negative rather than positive effect on compliance.     

Free riders and the optimal prize in public‐good funding lotteries

We prove the existence and uniqueness of an equilibrium in a game where players, whose preferences exhibit constant absolute risk aversion or constant relative risk aversion, contribute to a public good via lottery‐ticket purchases. Contrasting models with risk neutrality, we show that an equilibrium with a strictly positive amount of the public good may not exist without a sufficient number of participants who are not too risk‐averse. We show that players who are more risk‐averse purchase fewer lottery tickets and are more likely to free ride in equilibrium. In fact, it is possible for free riders to place a larger value on the public good than do those who contribute. In a symmetric equilibrium, we show that an upper bound exists for the amount of the public good, even though there are infinitely many participants. Furthermore, we derive a lottery prize that maximizes the amount of the public good in a symmetric equilibrium and find that such a prize always results in an overprovision of the public good.     

Legal Principles in Antitrust Enforcement

We study antitrust enforcement that aims to channel price‐fixing incentives of cartels through setting fine schedules and detection levels. Fines obey legal principles, such as the punishment should fit the crime, proportionality, bankruptcy considerations, and minimum fines. Bankruptcy considerations limit maximum fines, ensure abnormal cartel profits, and impose a challenge for optimal antitrust enforcement. We derive the fine schedule and detection level that are constrained‐optimal under legal principles and sustainability of cartel prices. This fine schedule lies below the maximum fine, makes collusion on lower prices more attractive than on higher prices, and, hence, relates to the body of literature on marginal deterrence.     

Breaking the law when others do: A model of law enforcement with neighborhood externalities

A standard assumption in the economics of law enforcement is that the probability of a violator being punished depends only on the resources devoted to enforcement. However, it is often true that the productivity of enforcement resources decreases with the number of violators. In this paper, an individual who violates the law provides a positive externality for other offenders because the probability of being punished decreases with the number of individuals violating the law. This externality explains the existence of correlation between individuals’ decisions to break a law. The model evaluates the implications when determining the socially optimal enforcement expenditure, focusing specifically on the case of neighborhood crime. In particular, using a parametrized functional form, I show that neighborhood externalities will enhance or impede enforcement, depending on the crime rate.