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1.
以平遥古城为研究案例地,基于百度指数获取2011—2014年平遥古城逐日网络关注度数据,采用周内分布偏度指数、地理集中指数等方法测度网络关注度的时空特征,运用回归方程分析网络关注度时空变化的影响因素。研究发现:(1)平遥古城网络关注度在时间分布上具有以下特征:2011—2014年网络关注度呈直线增长趋势;年内变化上呈鲜明的"双高峰"模式,具有旺季长、淡季短的特点;节假日上表现为节前关注度上升,其中"五一"在节日前一天达到顶峰,而"十一"在节日第2、3天达到顶峰;周内表现为"周末低谷,工作日高峰"的特征。(2)平遥古城网络关注度空间分布上具有不断集中的趋势,主要集中分布在山西及其周边省区。(3)气候舒适度和节假日、重要节庆等是影响网络关注度年内变化的重要因素;经济联系强度,客源地人均GDP和两地间的距离是影响平遥古城网络关注度空间分布的重要因素。  相似文献   

2.
基于网络关注度的湖南省居民旅游需求时空特征   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
收集2014年湖南省3A级及以上旅游景区网络关注度等有关数据,利用季节强度指数、旅游需求偏好指数,揭示湖南省居民旅游需求的时空变化特征,并分析影响其时空变化的主要因素,结果发现:年内居民对景区旅游总需求呈山岭型变化,对单个景区的旅游需求存在单峰、双峰、多峰3种类型;居民对景区旅游需求的年内时间变化主要受到景区资源特性、气候舒适度、节假日、景区景观季节变化等因素的影响,单峰型景区旅游需求的季节性差异相对较大,双峰型和多峰型景区相对较小;全省居民对景区的旅游需求在空间上呈"多中心"分布,其中最主要的3个中心为以凤凰古城为主的湘西景区群、以衡山为主的景区群和以长沙世界之窗等为主的长株潭景区群;居民对景区旅游需求空间分布主要受到景区级别、经济发展水平、景区类型、空间距离、可进入性等因素影响。  相似文献   

3.
对国家湿地公园网络关注度的研究,可从新的视角为湿地生态旅游网络营销提供参考。以西溪国家湿地公园为案例地,基于百度指数,探讨其网络关注度的时空特征与影响因素。研究发现:(1)2011—2018年,西溪湿地网络关注度总体上呈现先递增后下降的时间演化趋势;年内变化上表现为"双高峰模式",具有旺季长、平季与淡季短的特点,2016年以来季节性表现出减弱的趋势。(2)2011—2018年,西溪湿地网络关注度的分布均较为集中,地域空间格局变化较小;省际差异明显,关注度较高的区域主要是东部沿海地区。(3)气候舒适度与休假制度是影响西溪湿地网络关注度时间分布的重要因素;经济发展水平、网络发达程度与两地间距离是影响其网络关注度空间分异的重要因素。  相似文献   

4.
生延超  吴昕阳 《经济地理》2019,39(2):232-240
移动互联网的高速发展和日益普及,使游客满意度的网络关注度成为游客旅游目的地选择的重要影响因素。基于此,以全国31个省(市、自治区)为研究范围,以"游客满意度"为研究对象,对目前我国游客满意度网络关注度的时空特征和影响因素展开研究。研究发现:全国游客满意度网络关注度指数总体上呈波动态势,且每年4~5月、12~1月游客满意度网络关注度较为明显,差异显著。同时,全国各地区游客满意度网络关注度指数具有显著差异,呈现东西中地区差异减少的态势。值得关注的是,游客满意度网络关注度的区域差异巨大,但整体上呈现差异缓慢减少的趋势,这有助于经营者和监管者以游客为导向,提升游客满意程度,从供给侧层面重视需求侧诉求,形成供需联动促进区域旅游发展的良好局面。  相似文献   

5.
乌镇景区网络关注度动态演变与空间差异分析   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
许艳  陆林  赵海溶 《经济地理》2020,40(7):200-210
利用"百度指数"数据共享平台获取2013—2017年中国大陆31个省区的乌镇景区网络搜索指数,结合区域经济差异测算指标研究分析了乌镇景区网络关注度的空间差异特征及其影响因素。研究发现:①全国乌镇景区网络关注度总体呈现出波动态势,下半年较上半年起伏较大。季节性差异显著,但近年来的热门综艺、国际盛会等"大事件"引致旅游流基本平衡了淡季关注落差。②各地区的乌镇景区网络关注度总体表现为"东高、西低"的空间分布特征,其中,西部地区的季节性差异最为凸显。③东部、中部、西部三大区域乌镇景区网络关注度存在显著差异。区域间差异逐年递减,集聚程度趋向缓和;区域内关注较为分散,空间结构相对均衡。④乌镇景区网络关注度时空差异是经济发展水平、网络发达程度、社会人口统计特征、气候舒适度和地理空间距离等因素综合影响的结果。  相似文献   

6.
基于大数据的洛阳市旅游流时空分布特征   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
在大数据背景之下,基于洛阳市游客新浪微博签到数据,应用游客新浪微博签到频次、时间分层法、核密度空间分析法,分析了洛阳市旅游流年内时空分布特征,所得结论如下:(1)洛阳市旅游客流量年内变化总体上呈"双峰山岭"型分布特征,两个较为突出主峰分别对应洛阳牡丹文化节、十一黄金周,客流量在不同的时段表现出明显的相似性、对称性、反季节性等变化特征。(2)从客流量年内多重尺度时间变化上看,呈现出春季客流量夏季客流量秋季客流量冬季客流量的变化趋势,月内变化曲线呈现出类似锯齿状的突峰型或凹谷型,不断起伏的高峰分别对应双休日和传统节假日,周内变化曲线呈现出明显的"翘尾"形,星期六和星期天客流量最大,日内变化曲线整体呈现"平勺"形特征。(3)洛阳市旅游流空间分布形态呈现出"小型化、斑块化、大分散、小集散"和"一核多中心"的特征,热点区倾向于向高等级旅游景区聚集、城市中心城区集聚、重要交通设施集聚。(4)洛阳市旅游流日内各时段空间分布特征大致相同,变化主要发生在主城区,根据空间相似性,可分为两个阶段,0~9时段为游客休整期,旅游者活动较少,空间分布范围较小,9~24时段为游客游览和夜生活期,游客较为活跃,活动范围较广。  相似文献   

7.
互联网时代,网络关注度可以作为测度马拉松社会关注程度的工具之一,来表征马拉松运动的群众基础。文章利用变差系数、赫芬达尔系数、首位度、地理集中指数、季节性集中指数5个指标和地理空间可视化表达方法对2014—2019年我国马拉松的网络关注度时空特征及影响因素进行研究,发现:(1)时间上,我国马拉松的网络关注度呈现明显上升趋势,全国层面的马拉松网络关注时间分布的年际差异较小;省域层面的马拉松网络关注时间分布的年际变化总体较显著;大众关注马拉松的季节偏好越来越显著。(2)空间上,从全国范围看,各省份之间的马拉松网络关注分布的均衡程度不高。区域间,网络用户对马拉松的关注呈现东—中—西依次减少态势。区域内,马拉松网络关注在西部区域内分布相对不均衡,东部其次,中部区域内最为均衡,各区域内的均衡程度有分化趋势。(3)马拉松网络关注的空间分布主要受人口规模、经济发展水平、教育发展水平、网络发达程度、旅游发展水平、自然地理条件等6项因素影响。除以上因素外,官方政策、标志性马拉松赛事及热点事件等也会对其产生一定影响。  相似文献   

8.
节假日旅游流时空分异及其形成机制——以云南省为例   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
以云南省为研究区域,利用游客集中度系数、基尼系数、洛伦茨曲线等指标,获取了云南省节假日旅游流的时空分异特征,并从区域旅游空间结构的视角分析其形成机制,结果表明:(1)云南省节假日旅游流的时间分布不受空间尺度限制,在省域和市域尺度均表现出相对均衡格局;节假日旅游流的空间分布相对集中,呈"多核心、边界带状"空间格局,且各节假日的旅游流空间分布特征具有一致性。(2)快速交通方式的"时空压缩"效应有效缓解了节假日时长对游客出游半径的限制,并在优惠政策与旅游宣传影响下,国庆黄金周对中秋节存在"虹吸效应"。(3)旅游资源禀赋是节假日旅游流空间格局形成的主要因素,交通可达性对旅游流规模的影响有限;具有一定区位优势但旅游品位一般的旅游地,极易在交通设施不断完善过程中被替代,而区位优势不明显的旅游边缘节点凭借资源禀赋也具备相当竞争力;具有完善的公路交通基础设施且旅游景区特色鲜明的旅游区,则表现出对自驾游的较强吸引力。  相似文献   

9.
通过350余份调查问卷,利用社会统计分析方法,从游客旅游目的地、游客交通方式及其线路选择、旅游次数、旅游范围、旅游停留时间、客流量等方面,分析了高速铁路影响下南京市旅游客流现状及其变化.结果表明:高速铁路增加了游客出游时交通方式及其线路的选择,扩大了旅游范围,增加了游客旅游次数,减少了部分游客的旅游停留时间,并不必然带来旅游客流量的增加.  相似文献   

10.
入境旅游游客的时空变化是由于客源地和目的地之间的相互联系影响的动态变化结果。文章基于1994—2015年我国20个主要客源地的每月入境游客量数据,采用数学分析、季节强度指数等方法研究入境游客量的时空变化特征及其影响因素。港澳台地区与外国关于入境游客量时空分布差异较大,其影响因素:从供给方面看,旅游地与客源地的兼容性是首要因素,它是进行入境旅游的前提条件,说明入境旅游地的可进入性极为重要,同时服务功能或品牌品质也是重要因素;从需求方面看,游客的属性特征差异、客源地经济发展水平、周边国家的"旅游替代品"是重要影响因素;另外,客源地与旅游地之间的空间距离、区位条件、交通状况等反映连接性的因素是不可忽略的方面。  相似文献   

11.
John Stuart Mill has traditionally been portrayed as self-contradictory and failing to construct a unified social theory. Recent scholarship, however, has challenged this view, finding Mill's work to be creatively synthetic in bridging the antinomies inherent in liberal democratic thought. This revisionist interpretation of Mill is advanced by an understanding of his theory of justice and its role in shaping his policy positions on issues such as welfare, education, voting rights, property rights, taxation, government intervention, and the future of capitalism.  相似文献   

12.
Arik Hesseldahl In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, U.S. officials quickly turned their attention to other potential targets, including California's Golden Gate Bridge. What would happen if terrorists took down the bridge between San Francisco and Marin County? How much of the region would be affected and for how long?  相似文献   

13.
中国拥有世界五分之一强的人口 ,收入又在迅速增长。因此 ,国际上很自然地会考虑或推测她在今后的几十年是否有能力养活自己。中国的人口预计将从 2 0 0 0年的 1 2 8亿增长到 2 0 2 0年的 1 4 6亿 ,和 2 0 3 0年的 1 4 9亿。与此同时 ,人均收入的增长将导致对家畜和鱼类产品更大的需求 ,因而对饲料的需求也将有很大的增长  相似文献   

14.
This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.  相似文献   

15.
Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.  相似文献   

16.
Synopsis Classification is an important activity that facilitates theory development in many academic disciplines. Scholars in fields such as organizational science, management science and economics and have long recognized that classification offers an approach for ordering and understanding the diversity of organizational taxa (groups of one or more similar organizational entities). However, even the most prominent organizational classifications have limited utility, as they tend to be shaped by a specific research bias, inadequate units of analysis and a standard neoclassical economic view that does not naturally accommodate the disequilibrium dynamics of modern competition. The result is a relatively large number of individual and unconnected organizational classifications, which tend to ignore the processes of change responsible for organizational diversity. Collectively they fail to provide any sort of universal system for ordering, compiling and presenting knowledge on organizational diversity. This paper has two purposes. First, it reviews the general status of the major theoretical approaches to biological and organizational classification and compares the methods and resulting classifications derived from each approach. Definitions of key terms and a discussion on the three principal schools of biological classification (evolutionary systematics, phenetics and cladistics) are included in this review. Second, this paper aims to encourage critical thinking and debate about the use of the cladistic classification approach for inferring and representing the historical relationships underpinning organizational diversity. This involves examining the feasibility of applying the logic of common ancestry to populations of organizations. Consequently, this paper is exploratory and preparatory in style, with illustrations and assertions concerning the study and classification of organizational diversity.  相似文献   

17.
In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.  相似文献   

18.
Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”  相似文献   

19.
The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO2 in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO2 equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO2 eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO2 emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO2 saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO2 emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.  相似文献   

20.
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