Inequality in National Inter-Generational Transfers: Evidence from Colombia

Public transfers are designed with the idea of reducing poverty and inequality among specific population groups. The National Transfers Account methodology suggests the use of household head education (HHE) as a poverty proxy in the construction of profiles by socio-economic status. Considering the higher levels of inequality in developing countries, we construct and check inequality and intergenerational transfers using an alternative measure based on variables not endogenous to the underlying idea of intergenerational transfers: a Multidimensional Quality of Life Index (MQLI). We apply the methodology to a developing country, Colombia, and show that inequality and disparities in intergenerational transfers are best understood when using the MQLI.     

Evaluating the performance of means-tested benefits in Bulgaria

Using household survey data and microsimulation techniques, we analyse the performance of three means-tested benefits in Bulgaria. We find that the transfers reach a small proportion of households with incomes below a relative poverty line, they have high non take-up rates, and large proportions of the recipients are neither poor nor entitled to receive the benefits. Unsurprisingly, although an important income source for poor households, the benefits have a very small impact on reducing the poverty rates. We show that our results are robust to potential underreporting of benefit receipt in the household survey. Finally, we analyse the effect of five reform scenarios, one of which fiscally neutral, on poverty and find that there is a large scope for policy improvement.     

Patterns of Welfare Dependence before and after a Reform: Evidence from First Generation Immigrants and Natives in Germany

This paper studies the patterns of welfare dependence among first generation immigrants and natives in Germany before and after a substantial recent reform of the welfare system. Using data from the German Socio‐Economic Panel Study, the analysis presents life cycle trajectories of transfer receipt for immigrants and natives and studies the correlation between contextual factors and transfer receipt. We find no statistically significant differences in the probability of transfer receipt between immigrants and natives once socioeconomic characteristics are taken into account. Being a single parent, labor market status, and human capital are most closely correlated with the incidence of transfer receipt for both natives and immigrants. Interestingly, recent welfare reforms did not reverse prior patterns of welfare dependence.     

How Much is Transfer and How Much is Insurance in a Pay‐as‐you‐go System? The German Case

Pay-as-you-go pension systems provide insurance against longevity-related old-age poverty and related risks. They are commonly also used as instruments for redistribution. This paper provides several estimates of the insurance and transfer share of the German public pension system. Estimating these shares is important because they are indicative of taxation-related deadweight losses and influence public acceptance of the pension system. We also disentangle intragenerational from intergenerational transfers. Although our estimate of intragenerational transfers is smaller than recent semi-official estimations, such transfers create substantial deadweight losses. Intergenerational transfers are much larger, thereby contributing to strong negative participation incentives for the younger generation.
JEL classification : H 55; J 26     

Microcredit,Labor, and Poverty Impacts in Urban Mexico

Improved household accessibility to credit is a significant determinant of intra‐household allocation of labor resources with important implications for productivity, income, and poverty status. However, credit accessibility could also have wider impacts on poverty if it leads to new hires outside the household. This paper contributes to the existing literature on microcredit in two important ways. First, it investigates the routes through which microcredit reaches those in poverty outside the household. We test whether by lending to the vulnerable non‐poor microcredit can indirectly benefit poor laborers through increased employment. Second, we conduct the study in the context of urban poverty Mexico. This is relevant when considering that labor often represents the only source of livelihoods to the extreme urban poor. Our findings point to significant trickle‐down effects of microcredit that benefit poor laborers; however, these effects are only observed after loan‐supported enterprising households achieve earnings well above the poverty line.     

Challenges and Changes in Gendered Poverty: The Feminization,De-Feminization,and Re-Feminization of Poverty in Latin America

Despite reductions in poverty generally, recent trends in Latin American countries show processes of both de-feminization and re-feminization of poverty. A rise in the numbers of women to men living in income-poor households has occurred despite feminized anti-poverty programs, most notably conditional cash transfers (CCTs), which target resources to women. This paper shows that methodological differences in what, how, and who is the focus of measurement may influence patterns of poverty “feminization.” It also suggests that feminized policy interventions might in themselves be playing a role in the re-feminization of poverty, not least because of data and definitional limitations in the way female-headed households and, relatedly, women’s poverty are understood. The somewhat paradoxical interactions between the feminization of household headship, the feminization of poverty, and the feminization of anti-poverty programs present interesting challenges for redressing gender gaps in poverty within the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.     

The effect of transfers on household expenditure patterns and poverty in South Africa

This paper uses household level unit record data from South Africa to examine the behavioural and welfare impacts of private and public transfers. We allow for joint endogeneity of resource variables and the expenditure shares. Our results show that crowding out of private transfers as a result of the introduction of public pensions holds only for poor households and not for the non-poor. Both private transfers and public pensions significantly reduce poverty but private transfers have a larger impact on expenditure patterns. The results also reject the hypothesis of income pooling underlying the conventional unitary model by finding that the marginal impact on expenditures are different for public pension received, private transfer received and other resources flowing into the household. The principal conclusions are robust to changes in specification.     

Testing Prediction Performance of Poverty Models: Empirical Evidence from Uganda

This paper examines the performance of a method of predicting poverty rates. Because most developing countries cannot justify the expense of frequent household budget surveys, additional low‐cost methods have been developed and used. The prediction method is based on a model linking the proportion of poor households to suitable explanatory variables (consumption proxies). These consumption proxies are variables that can be collected at much lower cost through smaller annual surveys. Several applications have shown that such models can produce poverty estimates with confidence intervals of a similar magnitude to the poverty estimates from the household budget surveys. There is, however, limited evidence of how well the methods perform out‐of‐sample. A series of seven household budget surveys conducted in Uganda in the period 1993–2005 allows us to test the prediction performance of the model. We test the poverty models by using data from one survey to predict the proportion of poor households in other surveys, and vice versa. The results are encouraging, as all models predict similar poverty trends. Although in most cases the predictions are precise, sometimes they differ significantly from the poverty level estimated from the survey directly.     

“挤入”还是“挤出”?中国农村的公共转移支付与私人转移支付

基于微观调查数据,分析了公共转移支付和私人转移支付之间的联系,检验中国农村公共转移支付对私人转移支付的非线性挤出效应。采用两阶段heckman方法,第一阶段因变量为收到私人转移支付的可能性,第二阶段的因变量为收到私人转移支付的数量。私人转移支付发出方的动机是交换动机,公共转移支付只是增加了私人转移支付的可能性,但公共转移支付并没有影响私人转移支付数量;私人转移支付动机并不是非线性的;把公共转移支付分为生产性和生活性后,两类公共转移支付对净私人转移支付数量也没有影响。     

A note on the Bourguignon–Fields class of poverty indices

Current poverty measurement methodology does not allow a definitive analysis of changes in distribution, through time or between countries, which involve changes in the number or proportion of poor people. By revisiting the continuity and transfer axioms, we show that within the Bourguignon and Fields (1997) class of poverty indices a range of value judgements can be accommodated as to what happens (or should happen) in the case that poverty-line crossings result from regressive transfers. In exposing this, we hope to provide empirical analysts with wider scope to use the Bourguignon–Fields poverty indices in an informed way.     

Poverty Dynamics,Violent Conflict,and Convergence in Rwanda

This paper analyzes the poverty impact of the violent events that affected Rwanda in the 1990s. The main objective of the paper is to identify systematically potential mechanisms linking violent conflict with changes in poverty across provinces and households in Rwanda before and after a decade of violence. In accordance with emerging literature on the long‐term economic effects of violent conflict, we find empirical evidence for economic convergence between richer and poorer Rwandan provinces and households following the conflict shocks. Using a small but unique panel of households surveyed before and after the conflict period, we find that households whose house was destroyed or who lost land ran a higher risk of falling into poverty. We do not find much evidence for an economic effect of violent deaths at the household level due to substitution effects of labor within the household. Non‐violent deaths however seem to increase income per adult equivalent for the survivors. Results are shown to be robust to sample selection and IV models.     

HOW DO HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES IN JAPAN COMPETE FOR REGULAR,FULL‐TIME JOBS? AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS BASED UPON AN INTERNET SURVEY OF THE YOUTH*

We use a survey of Japanese youth within 10 years after high school graduation to investigate impacts of academic and social skills on their success in the job market. We find three major factors account for the job market outcome immediately after school: school characteristics and job‐placement services, academic performance, and social skills, including negative impacts of problematic behaviors at school. Second, when we run a probit regression on whether or not the surveyed individuals hold regular, full‐time jobs, we find the persistent but declining (over age) impact of the job placement immediately after school. Moreover, we find that the impact of variables pertaining to social skills remain significant even after controlling for the job‐placement outcome after school, whereas other variables, such as grade point average or attributes of high schools, are largely irrelevant to the current employment status.     

ANTI-POVERTY EFFECTIVENESS OF THE MINIMUM LIVING STANDARD ASSISTANCE POLICY IN URBAN CHINA

Since its inception 15 years ago, the Minimum Living Standard Assistance (MLSA) has served as a last resort for China's urban poor. Using national household survey data, this study provides updated evidence on the participation rate, receipt amount, and anti-poverty effectiveness of MLSA. Families eligible for MLSA make up 2.3 percent of the urban population, but only about half of them are actual beneficiaries. City MLSA generosity and household entitled benefit amount both positively correlate with participation rate and household receipt amount. MLSA lowers the poverty rate somewhat, but substantially reduces the poverty gap and severity for its eligible participants. Nevertheless, the poverty reduction role of MLSA is restricted by its partial coverage and delivery. Consequentially, poverty remains a serious problem for MLSA's target population. The anti-poverty effectiveness of MLSA can be strengthened by full coverage and delivery of benefits and by paying special attention to disadvantaged subgroups.     

Always Poor or Never Poor and Nothing in Between? Duration of Child Poverty in Germany

Abstract. This paper analyses the duration of child poverty in Germany. Observing the entire income history from the individuals' birth to their coming of age at age 18, we are able to analyse dynamics in and out of poverty for the entire population of children, whether they become poor at least once or not. Using duration models, we find that household composition, most importantly single parenthood, and the labour market status as well as level of education of the household head are the main driving forces behind exit from and re‐entry into poverty and thus determine the (long‐term) experience of poverty.     

Do First‐Time House Buyers Receive Financial Transfers from Their Parents?*

Using Danish longitudinal data with information about wealth for a sample of first‐time house buyers and their parents, we test whether there are direct financial transfers from parents to children in connection with the house purchase, or in connection with unemployment spells occurring just after the purchase, when children typically hold few liquid assets. First, we document that child and parent financial resources are correlated. Then, we introduce conditioning variables and exploit the panel aspect of the data to also condition on fixed unobserved factors, which arguably govern preferences and/or productivity. We find no evidence of direct financial transfers.     

Must conditional cash transfer programs be conditioned to be effective? The impact of conditioning transfers on school enrollment in Mexico

A growing body of evidence suggests that conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs can have strong, positive effects on a range of welfare indicators for poor households in developing countries. However, there is little evidence about how important each component of these programs is towards achieving these outcomes. This paper tests the importance of conditionality on one specific outcome related to human capital formation, school enrollment, using data collected during the evaluation of Mexico's PROGRESA program. We exploit the fact that some beneficiaries who received transfers did not receive the forms needed to monitor the attendance of their children at school. We use a variety of techniques, including nearest neighbor matching and household fixed effects regressions, to show that the absence of these forms reduced the likelihood that children attended school with this effect most pronounced when children are transitioning to lower secondary school. We provide substantial evidence that these findings are not driven by unobservable characteristics of households or localities.     

Impact of remittances on male and female labor force participation patterns in Africa: Quasi‐experimental evidence from Ghana

In this paper, we examine how remittances, an outcome of labor mobility, affect labor market activities in Ghana using detailed household and individual‐level data. This is important, considering the extensive literature that has documented the remittance–poverty reduction nexus. First, we find a strong negative association between household remittance‐receiving status and individual labor supply decisions using instrumental variable estimation techniques. Second, we find the depressing effect of remittances on labor supply decisions to be much stronger in rural areas. Rural women who reside in remittance‐receiving households are less likely to be in the labor force compared with those who do not reside in such households. Remittances have very little impact on labor supply decisions in urban areas. Our findings support that remittances can exacerbate long‐term poverty reduction in rural areas through lower labor force participation, and as such rural‐based and gender‐based interventions may be needed to help redirect remittance income.     

Rural livelihoods in Armenia

This article explores the structure of the rural economy in Armenia from a farm household perspective. Ownership of capital and access to activities are examined on the basis of data from a recent large‐scale survey of farm households in Armenia. Different measures for the outcome of livelihood strategies in terms of well‐being are observed. Income‐poor households are found to be less well endowed especially with financial and social capital. They derive smaller income shares from economic activities and more from dissaving and social payments. The findings are relevant to policies aimed at alleviating rural poverty.     

Give and Take Between Households and the State: Development and Application of A Benefaction–Contribution Ratio

This study defines a “Benefaction–Contribution Ratio” (BCR), describing the extent to which households are net beneficiaries of or contributors to the economy in relation to income and consumption. Such issues are central to assessment and targeting of policies such as social welfare and taxation. We apply the ratio to 21,144 South African households. South Africa employs various taxation‐funded social grants and subsidized services. A central question is how such transfers affect real household income and consumption. We find that the constitution of social transfers as a function of tax adjusted earned income significantly augments household buying power. Furthermore, we hypothesize and find a negative curvilinear shape which has implications for design of taxation and welfare. This constitution and distribution of this ratio may be useful for international benchmarking and household planning, and as an economic predictor of outcomes such as job seeking, entrepreneurial behavior, family planning, migration, and tax evasion.     

Trade Liberalization and Spatial Inequality: a Methodological Innovation in a Vietnamese Perspective

The authors calibrate two static computable general‐equilibrium (CGE) models with 16 and 5999 representative households. Aggregated and disaggregated household categories are consistently embedded in a 2000 social accounting matrix (SAM) for Vietnam, mapping on a one‐to‐one basis. Distinct differences in poverty assessments emerge when the impact of trade liberalization is analyzed in the two models. This highlights the importance of modeling micro‐household behavior and related income and expenditure distributions endogenously within a static CGE model framework. The simulations indicate that poverty will rise following a revenue‐neutral lowering of trade taxes. This is interpreted as a worst‐case scenario, which suggests that the government should be proactive in combining trade liberalization measures with a pro‐poor fiscal response to avoid increasing poverty in the short to medium term.