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1.
长波理论是过去一个世纪中最具争论性的理论之一。20世纪60年代末70年代初,长波研究复兴中形成了三个影响较大的长波理论派别,即由熊彼特开创的技术创新的长波理论、曼德尔构造的马克思主义长波理论及由戴维.戈登等提出的"社会积累结构"的长波理论。本文系统考察新熊彼特学派代表人物佩蕾斯进入新世纪以来发展的长波理论思想,并将其与马克思主义经典作家的长波理论进行比较。  相似文献   

2.
从国际经济周期理论到世界经济周期理论   总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7  
来自经济体系外部的冲击,通过国际经济纽带在各国之间传导,并在市场机制作用下引起世界各国经济的大致同步波动,从而生成一轮世界经济周期,这种机制可以概括为\"外部冲击—部门传导—国际传导\"。  相似文献   

3.
从现有文献来看,技术、产业结构、农业波动、消费需求、投资需求、外资、存货、政府政策等都是影响中国经济周期波动的重要因素,以马克思经济周期理论为基础进行分析,收入差距也是导致我国经济周期波动的重要原因。  相似文献   

4.
长波、创新与美国的新经济   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5  
美国新经济“一高两低”的现象,超出了正宏观经济的解释能力,作者运用熊彼特长波与创新理论,阐述了长波,创新与美国新经济的关系,探讨了新经济的本质及其发展方向,作者认为,90年代发源于美国的信息技术革命作为一次重大基本创新将会引致世界范围内的新一轮经济长波,并由此带来一个较长的经济繁荣期,同时也将会弱化传统的经济周期,增强经济自身的稳定性。  相似文献   

5.
新经济与美国的经济周期   总被引:10,自引:0,他引:10  
本文首先分析了美国经济的长波特性,说明了创新是长波发动的原因,并指出目前美国正处于第五轮长波的上升期。然后通过希克斯经济周期模型实证分析了美国自1990年代初开始的经济中波,根据中波的周期、波形特征并结合长波解释了美国1990年代的新经济以及从2000年下半年开始的经济减速,并据此对美国今后一段时间的经济走势作出预测。最后,根据结论分析了对我国经济的启示。  相似文献   

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8.
实际经济周期理论述评   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
由于卢卡斯批评的出现,宏观经济学在最近的20年里,又开始重新重视经济周期问题的研究.芬·基德兰德和爱德华·普雷斯科特开辟了这一问题研究的新路,创立了所谓的实际经济周期理论.这一理论特别注意对经济微观主体应对经济环境变化的行为的观察.实际经济周期理论强调技术冲击是经济波动的主要来源.在过去十多年里,实际经济周期理论的概念和方法已开始进入宏观经济学的主流.  相似文献   

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10.
新古典宏观经济学的经济周期理论述评   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
二十世纪七十年代初,凯恩斯主义经济学在受到经济实践批判的同时,新古典宏观经济学也指出了其理论的缺陷,并以此为基础构建其宏观经济学的微观基础,即经济主体的理性原则、理性预期、市场出清,建立了货币经济周期理论和实际经济周期理论,否定政府政策的有效性,反对政府干预,力图完成其对凯恩斯主义经济学全面彻底的批判。  相似文献   

11.
突破性商业模式创新要素研究   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
采用多案例建构理论研究方法,运用扎根理论数据分析手段,构建了突破性商业模式创新的要素体系。研究发现:价值主张、关键活动、伙伴网络、收入模型和成本结构是突破性商业模式创新的5个核心要素;至少一个核心要素的质变将导致突破性商业模式创新的发生;每个核心要素拥有若干细分维度,核心要素的质变意味着至少有一个该要素的细分维度发生质变。  相似文献   

12.
The Austrian approach to business cycles has been seldom examined in econometric terms. This paper first reviews the essentials of that approach and the recent application of the Austrian business cycle theory in the economics literature. Quarterly data for Germany, USA, England and France, 1980:1 through 2006:1, are used to explore business cycle facts and relations between terms structure of interest rates, relative prices, composition of aggregate expenditure and real GDP. Results are consistent with the hypothesis of the Austrian business cycle theory that monetary policy shocks explain cycles. The changes in term structure of interest rates and composition of aggregate expenditure are large enough to explain changes in aggregate economic activity.
Christelle MougeotEmail:
  相似文献   

13.
This paper identifies a number of “psychological” elements in business cycle theories and shows how these components contribute to the theories’ results. It proceeds by discussing (i) which assumptions on behaviour were used, laying particular stress on expectations and confidence, money illusion, social preferences and interaction, and individual character traits; (ii) how they influenced and determined the theories’ results; and (iii) how more recent behavioural research provides a better and empirically grounded understanding of these factors. For each element, the possibility of incorporating new insights into older models is discussed, and references to work which already does so are given.  相似文献   

14.
By mid-2008 the world was witnessing the unfolding of a relatively rare macroeconomic phenomenon, namely, the onset of what one might call a synchronized international – or ‘world’ – recession. But what exactly is a ‘synchronized world recession’? This article proposes a practical definition of a ‘synchronized world recession’ and a putative set of historical post-WWII dates for a ‘world business cycle chronology’. Further, using a constructed ‘world coincident index of economic indicators’ and an associated ‘world leading index of economic indicators’, this article demonstrates that evidence was available from early in the second half of 2007 that the world was indeed sliding inexorably towards its fourth synchronized world recession since WWII (although, interestingly, already its second of the twenty-first century!).  相似文献   

15.
熊吉峰 《经济问题》2007,(10):78-81
改革开放以来,家庭经营一直受到来自城市化与农业经营环境两个方面因素的外生冲击.按照真实经济周期理论,农户对两种外生冲击预期收益率的变化造成了家庭经营投资费用的波动.首先将改革以来家庭经营波动划分为6个周期,然后运用真实经济周期理论对家庭经营的波动周期、波动幅度与演变趋势进行比较分析.研究结论表明,在新农村建设时期,随着城市化步伐逐步加快,以及政府增加对"三农"的投资、发展现代农业等外生冲击力度加大,传统的小农家庭经营必然向家庭农场制转型.而在家庭经营转型过程中,政府不应干预农户的自主选择,而应通过加大两种冲击的影响力度,引导家庭农场制应运而生.  相似文献   

16.
    
Abstract

Many mainstream business cycle theories were not able to cope with the financial crisis theoretically. With his concept of balance mechanics, the German economist Wolfgang Stützel developed a framework for comparing different theories of business cycles which helps to understand the reasons for this inadequacy. This paper works out Stützel’s considerations and his four “model cases” of cycles more systematically and shows how the theories of the business cycle Stützel mentioned are related to theories discussed today. Modern business cycle theories did not cover all “model cases” and therefore had a blind spot.  相似文献   

17.
  总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
We extend the basic RBC model to allow for biased technical changes. One broad definition of biased technical changes is changes that directly affect factor elasticities. Given the link between changes in factor elasticities and factor shares, observed fluctuations in US labor's share are motivation for this study. We find that when the technology shock process is calibrated according to US labor's share dynamics, 93 percent of US GDP volatility is accounted for. The observed countercyclical nature of labor's share is accounted for, although the model correlation is too high. As well, the model exhibits business cycles that are qualitatively similar to those of the standard model with neutral technology shocks. These findings, while robust to the short-run properties of various measures of labor's share, are sensitive to the average labor's share used in calibration, e.g., departing from a baseline calibration value of 63 percent, for steady-state labor's shares of 50 percent and 70 percent the model accounts for 107 percent and 84 percent of US GDP volatility respectively.  相似文献   

18.
数字经济时代促使企业进入数字化转型过程中,企业数字化转型离不开数字技术的发展与数字产物的嵌入,在二者的催化下多端颠覆性创新成为企业转型新常态,而数字化转型如何赋能制造业企业颠覆性创新形成数字化颠覆性创新以把握数字时代契机,打造企业新型竞争优势是可拓展的研究问题.本文以潍柴集团为例,依托于颠覆性创新理论,通过程序化扎根理论分析对象,对制造业企业实现数字化颠覆性创新的过程机制以及形成路径进行探究.研究发现,企业进行数字化颠覆性创新要经历驱动、转型以及多元三个阶段.驱动阶段,企业受内外驱动因素影响,启动数字化颠覆性创新;转型阶段,企业以生产模式转变与组织结构演化为行动路径,通过对企业内外的数字化实现企业的数字化颠覆性创新;多元阶段,通过实现商业生态系统的数字化颠覆性创新进行创新外延,形成数字商业生态系统模式,完成颠覆性创新转型.  相似文献   

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