考虑环境因素的中国电力能源效率测度与改进

在界定全要素电力能源效率概念的基础上,构建了考虑环境因素的非径向全要素电力能源效率DEA模型。利用相关数据,从省际、区域两个层面对我国30个省(自治区、直辖市)的电力能源效率进行测度分析。结果显示:在全国30个省(自治区、直辖市)中,只有14个省区的电力能源效率是有效的,且这些省区不存在电力节能潜力;北京、天津、上海三大城市的平均电力能源效率最高,西部地区的该均值最低;我国省际电力能源效率存在显著的区域性差距,且4大区域的电力能源效率存在一定的梯度差距;对省区进行投入、产出调整,可使全国的电力消费量缩减6309.08亿千瓦小时。最后提出提高我国电力能源效率的政策建议。     

环保视角下中国省际全要素能源效率分析

将全要素框架下的总能源效率分为经济型能源效率和环境型能源效率,并在经济与环境并重的前提下对DEA模型进行了设定,计算了2005—2011年期间我国29个省(自治区、直辖市)的总能源效率及两类能源效率。结果表明:在考虑环境的重要性后,样本省区的全要素能源效率呈下降趋势;环境保护的低效率使得中部地区的全要素能源效率均值明显小于西部地区;河北、山东、四川和山西4省的节能潜力最大,4省的节能减排量合计占中国总节能减排量的30%以上。     

中国省际间电力产业能源效率研究

电力产业的能源效率问题直接关系到我国总体的能源战略和环境问题。通过利用DEA方法研究发现，我国各个省市自治区之间的电力产业能源效率水平参差不齐，差距较大。同时，效率水平和东中西部的地域关系不大；大部分省市的规模效率的可提升空间较大；各省电力产业都要重点加强减少煤炭的消耗，才能进一步提高电力产业的能源效率。     

基于决策偏好两阶段网络DEA的我国科技投入效率研究

考虑到我国科技投入产出过程是由技术生产和技术改造与应用两阶段构成,构建两阶段科技投入模型,采用两阶段网络DEA模型分别评价各子系统效率,并得出系统总效率。据此方法,对我国内地31个省、市、自治区的科技投入绩效进行评价,同时针对决策者各个阶段的不同偏好,提出了基于不同决策偏好的新型两阶段网络DEA模型,为决策者提供了更多选择。评价结果显示,科技投入产出绩效存在地区差异。     

基于DEA模型的我国电力产业能源效率分析

利用DEA模型的研究方法,对2003—2010年间我国电力产业的总体能源效率进行分析。以技术效率测度电力产业的能源效率,并进一步将技术效率分解为纯技术效率和规模效率,分析电力产业能源效率的变化的原因,最后对结果进行投影分析。研究发现我国电力产业的能源效率不断提高,但是总体水平仍然偏低,其中电力产业的技术水平改善空间较小,而规模效率提升空间较大,其中煤耗是影响我国电力产业能源效率最重要的因素。     

网络DEA模型的生产理论背景

文章利用C2W模型提供的经典DEA模型的生产函数背景,研究串联网络结构和并联网络结构DEA模型的生产理论背景,得出网络DEA模型是真正“打开黑箱”的效率评价方法,为评价纵向一体化企业的效率及研究此类企业的生产决策问题提供了非参数分析方法。本文结论为网络DEA模型在经济分析中的应用提供了重要的理论支持。     

环境约束条件下的中国粮食全要素生产率增长与分解——基于省域面板数据与序列Malmquist-Luenberger指数的观察

本文利用1978-2010年国内省域面板数据,在使用单元调查评估法计算各省份DMU粮食生产污染排放量的基础上,利用方向性距离函数和序列DEA技术,测度了中国粮食生产是否考虑环境因素两种情形下的全要素生产率指数,并进一步分解为技术效率变化和技术进步。研究结果表明,是否考虑环境污染成本对于测算结果有较大影响,这对于政策导向意义重大;两种情形下全要素生产率增长贡献有限,主要靠技术进步单独贡献,并同时存在技术进步与效率损失并存的现象,粮食增长成本与代价相对高昂;从经济增长、资源与环境的协调程度来看,国内东中西部地区差异明显,东部地区表现最优的同时,西部地区的粮食生产扮演了"双重恶化"与失衡的角色。     

我国电力产业环境效率评价

电力产业的高能耗和重污染,决定了其在我国节能减排与发展低碳经济中的重要性。而对电力产业的环境效率进行评价,则有利于更加科学的制定电力产业节能减排政策。本文利用评价环境效率的DEA模型,分别在可变规模报酬和不变规模报酬两种情形下,对中国30个省区2000-2007年的电力业环境效率进行了评价,结果表明我国电力业环境效率整体处于下降趋势,但规模报酬的变化对不同地区电力业环境效率的影响不同。这表明在减排政策方面,应继续增强环境保护政策支持力度、调整能源结构,同时兼顾地区间的差异性。     

为什么交易服务中间商存在? 内生分工的一般均衡分析

本文考虑个人既是生产者(包括中间商)又是消费者的情况,同时基于分工获益与交易费用之间的冲突,运用超边际及一般均衡方法,探索了交易服务中间商出现和存在的理由。本文证明,交易服务中间商是专业化和分工水平提高的产物,而这种专业化和分工水平的提高则来自于制度效率和交易服务的交易效率所共同决定的产品总贸易效率的充分改进;交易服务中间商的出现还受到生产和交易的学习成本的影响,也会随着交易服务的生产技术的提高而加速;总贸易效率的提高同时也导致了交易服务中间商协调的委托贸易模式取代自给自足和非专业化生产者-消费者之间的直接贸易模式,并使得市场种类数增加、经济依存度提高、交易迂回度提高和人均真实收入增加。本文对于理解运输和物流服务的外包与内部化、生产与交易的交互作用以及营销渠道的形成具有意义。     

为什么交易服务中间商存在？内生分工的一般均衡分析

本文考虑个人既是生产者（包括中间商）又是消费者的情况,同时基于分工获益与交易费用之间的冲突,运用超边际及一般均衡方法,探索了交易服务中间商出现和存在的理由。本文证明,交易服务中间商是专业化和分工水平提高的产物,而这种专业化和分工水平的提高则来自于制度效率和交易服务的交易效率所共同决定的产品总贸易效率的充分改进;交易服务中间商的出现还受到生产和交易的学习成本的影响,也会随着交易服务的生产技术的提高而加速;总贸易效率的提高同时也导致了交易服务中间商协调的委托贸易模式取代自给自足和非专业化生产者-消费者之间的直接贸易模式,并使得市场种类数增加、经济依存度提高、交易迂回度提高和人均真实收入增加。本文对于理解运输和物流服务的外包与内部化、生产与交易的交互作用以及营销渠道的形成具有意义。     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

The greenhouse effect: Damages,costs and abatement

The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO₂ in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO₂ eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO₂ emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO₂ saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY: TRACING THE FLOW OF BASIC RESEARCH THROUGH MANUFACTURING AND TRADE

This paper describes flows of basic research through the US economy during the late 20th century. In addition, the paper studies the effect of the flows on scientific papers in industries and fields. This article differs from others in its use of measures of science rather than technology. Together, its results present a picture of the structure of basic research flows in a modern, science-intensive economy. Basic research flows are large within petrochemicals and drugs, and within software and communications. Flows of chemistry, physics, and engineering are common throughout all industries – biology and medicine are almost confined to petrochemicals and drugs; and computer science is nearly as restricted to software and communications. In general, basic research flows are more concentrated within scientific fields than within industries. Our findings concerning the production of scientific papers indicate that the effect of a 1% change in academic R&D spillovers significantly exceeds that of industrial spillovers. In addition, within-field effects exceed effects between-fields, while within- and between-industry effects are roughly equal. It follows that scientific fields limit basic research flows more than industries do, perhaps because large firms implicitly span a range of industries.     

Valuing Mangrove-Fishery Linkages – A Case Study of Campeche, Mexico

This paper explores the value of mangrove systems as a breeding and nursery habitat for off-shore fisheries, focusing on mangrove-shrimp production linkages in Campeche State, Mexico. We develop an open access fishery model to account explicitly for the effect of mangrove area on carrying capacity and thus production. From the long-run equilibrium conditions of the model we are able to establish the key parameters determining the comparative static effects of a change in mangrove area on this equilibrium. We then estimate empirically the effects of changes in mangrove area in the Laguna de Terminos on the production and value of shrimp harvests in Campeche over 1980–90. Our findings suggest that mangroves are an important and essential input into the Campeche shrimp fishery, but that the low levels of deforestation between 1980 and 1990 mean that the resulting losses to the shrimp fishery are still comparatively small. Over-exploitation of the fishery due to open access conditions remains the more pervasive threat, and without better management any long-run benefits of protecting mangrove habitat are likely to be dissipated.     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

An Economic Analysis and Simulation of Woodfuel Management in the Sahel

This paper presents an economic framework and a computationalmethodology for assessing the evolution of woodfuel supply costsand the spatial distribution of biomass in a Sahelian woodlandsetting. Spatial data on standing stock and the costs oftransport to market are used to construct a supply curve for fuelto a fuel-consuming location. Given an exogenously specifieddemand, the model simulates, period by period, the extraction,regeneration, and transport of wood fuels. The model is appliedto evaluate the benefits and ecological impacts of scenarios forwoodland management around the city of N'Djamena, Chad.