论知识的经纪人

提出了大学在知识经济的环境里做知识的经纪人的方法，即通过对知识 的预测、寻找、获取、管理、传播和应用，促进大学成为知识创新的主体以及与企业创新互动，提高大学和企业的竞争能力，从而具体研究了知识经纪人的特征、基本活动、服务方式和组织形式，以及大学在做知识经纪人的过程中遇到的问题及解决对策。     

电商平台与制造业企业创新——兼论数字经济和实体经济深度融合的创新驱动路径

本文构建了可用于研究参与电商平台如何影响企业创新的理论模型，并在此基础上匹配了2002—2019年1688电商平台与中国专利数据库中高度细化的微观企业数据，实证检验了参与电商平台对制造业企业创新的影响效应和内在机制。本文主要的研究结论是：(1)参与电商平台将显著提升制造业企业的创新水平，该结果在经过倾向得分匹配、基于工具变量的内生性处理等一系列稳健性检验后依然显著成立。(2)影响机制方面，参与电商平台主要通过扩大市场规模和促进知识溢出两个渠道推动制造业企业创新。(3)基于创新网络的拓展性分析发现，参与电商平台还将显著提升制造业企业在创新网络中的专利中心度以及明星专利数。因此，本文研究可为探索数字经济与实体经济深度融合的创新驱动路径提供有益支撑。     

知识密集型服务业与制造企业互动创新绩效的影响因素实证研究

知识密集型服务企业作为知识的生产者和传播者,通过与制造企业进行知识转移和互动,促进了制造业的创新。本文从互动强度和互动时间两个维度,提出知识密集型服务企业与制造企业互动创新的3类界面——销售式界面、咨询式界面和联盟式界面,剖析了三类界面中的知识转移分析框架,提炼出7个影响互动创新绩效的主要因素,进而分析了不同界面下这些因素对互动创新绩效影响的机制,并通过实证研究对影响机理进行了验证。     

跨境电商促进了企业创新吗?

跨境电商已成为中国对外贸易的重要引擎，并为企业创新提供了机遇。本文基于2012年由财政部等部门颁布的《跨境电子商务零售进口商品清单》识别企业是否受到了跨境电商发展的影响，深入探讨了跨境电商发展对企业创新的影响。研究发现：跨境电商显著提高了企业创新水平，该结论在一系列的稳健性检验后依然成立；企业融资约束缓解和市场竞争加剧是跨境电商发展促进企业创新的重要渠道；对于生产率较高、治理水平较高、人力资本水平较高的企业，跨境电商的创新促进效应更明显；进一步的研究发现，跨境电商显著提升了企业创新质量。本文研究为数字经济时代下更好利用跨境电商平台提升企业创新水平提供了理论依据与政策启示。     

跨层次、多主体、互动性地构筑创业生态系统*——“大众创业，万众创新”背景下的制度设计与生态优化学术研讨会暨第九届中国经济理论与管理前沿论坛综述*

随着我国经济迈向新常态,“大众创业,万众创新”已经成为中国经济转型升级的重要战略选择。如何设计合理的制度框架,构筑良性的创业生态,从而有力支撑双创战略,就成为政产学研界共同关注的问题。围绕这个主题,由浙江省哲学社会科学重点研究基地浙商研究中心、浙江工商大学工商管理学院、中国人民大学《经济理论与经济管理》杂志联合主办,浙江向上创业投资管理有限公司协办的“大众创业,万众创新”背景下的制度设计与生态优化学术研讨会暨第九届中国经济理论与管理前沿论坛,于2016年10月15-16日在杭州召开。来自全国各地的专家学者、实务界人士等近150人参加会议。围绕创业生态系统的宏观特征、主体互动与微观机制等主要问题,与会代表开展了深入交流,现将会议成果综述如下。 一、创业生态系统的宏观特征 吉林大学蔡莉认为,创业生态系统是由多种创业参与主体（包括创业企业及相关企业和机构）及其所处的创业环境所构成的有机整体,彼此间进行着复杂的交互作用,致力于提高整体创业活动水平（创业数量和创业成功率）。具体表现为多样性、网络性、共生性、竞争性和自我维持性等五大特征。作为创业理论的重要组成部分,创业生态系统研究还处于发展的初期阶段,目前理论界重点关注创业生态系统内涵、创业生态系统构成和创业生态系统特征。 中国人民大学杨万东从经济演化的视角对创业生态系统进行了特征界定,指出一个完整的创业生态系统应当具有丰富性、交互性、自主性与竞争性、规则性、有机性、不确定性与周期性、情绪化与波动性、共生与包容性、结构性与系统化、纠错和淘汰机制十大特征。他强调在当前中国情境下打造良好的创业生态系统,关键是要发挥市场自组织能力,不保护落后,不打击先进,不支持封闭,不反对竞争,鼓励技术创新、商业模式创新、产品创新和更深入全面的分工协作。同时,政府也要发挥重要作用,其着力点应当是提供全方位的适合企业创业和可持续发展的公共服务。 浙江省政协盛世豪认为,当前中国经济发展所具有的新常态特征和信息技术革命特征,决定了未来区域创新生态系统的发展方向。为此,区域创新生态系统必须结合经济新常态和信息技术革命,在构建合理的区域创新生态系统时坚持这三点：以创新引领需求,提升供给有效性;增强自生能力,确保内生发展动力;创造价值或综合效率,实现系统层面的竞争优势。这三个原则三位一体,指出了当前中国区域创新生态系统升级与优化的方向与重心。 清华大学石磊以工业生态理论为基础,通过对不同国家工业生态系统的研究,指出市场机制和政府规划都是影响工业生态系统的重要力量,创业生态系统的构建是一个多样化的路径,而不能简单定义为政府驱动或者市场驱动。工业生态系统中会出现各种死锁的情况,各国的发展经验表明创新是打开死锁的利器。在促进创新的同时,要善于利用系统发展过程中的路径依赖,确保生态系统的持续优化。 二、创业生态系统的主体互动 在探讨创业生态系统的宏观特性基础上,与会专家也集中研讨了创业生态系统中各个主体之间的互动机制,其研究主要分为三类：基于创业企业的互动机制;基于政府的互动机制;基于核心企业的互动机制。 首先是基于创业企业的互动机制。吉林大学蔡莉指出创业生态系统的核心是创业企业及其机会集,系统之中互动机制的核心就表现为围绕机会发现和机会创造的多主体互动。在创业生态系统的框架下,蔡莉提出了多主体视角下的机会发现观和机会创造观,机会发现和机会创造以及二者之间的转化,共同构成了创业生态系统的机会集。 其次是基于政府的互动机制。盛世豪关注了区域创新生态系统中的政府角色,认为政府必须做好基础建设,主要包括以下方面：提升要素禀赋,特别是主体素质;激励创新活动涌现;构筑创新创业平台;扶持新兴产业成长;保护知识产权;促进新旧动能转换。在政策体系方面,应当重点关注以下方面：优化创新平台、鼓励竞争促进企业创新能力提升、降低创新成本、分担创新风险。浙江工商大学项国鹏等人实证测量了区域创业政策对区域创业绩效的影响。创业政策是区域创业生态系统中的一种制度安排,是区域政府激励当地创业活动的顶层设计,也是区域创业生态系统中的重要内部互动机制。 再次是基于核心企业的互动机制。阿里巴巴集团研究院崔瀚文重点分析了围绕核心企业的创业生态系统之中的互动机制。他主要以阿里巴巴为对象,认为平台经济成为互联网创业生态系统的基础,围绕平台企业,众多小企业之间通过竞争与合作的互动形成了“大平台＋小前端”的典型组织模式。在这一模式之下,平台降低小企业创新创业门槛,依托平台服务,大量创新创业机会涌现,而大量的小前端聚合在一起也为平台带来了需求和流量,从而形成大平台与小前端、小前端之间的合理互动,促进这个生态系统的良性发展。来自创投界的盛建峰分析了创投机构与其他主体的互动机制。他认为,创投机构是创业生态系统中必不可少的主体,因为创投机构能够有效串联资本、创业精神、知识（知识产权、专业技能、行业经验、市场知识）,而这正是创业企业能够持续运营的关键要素。所以,创投机构在整个创业生态系统中的定位应该集中于：价值发现者、资源配置者、创业推动者、创业生态链完善者。 在探讨创业生态系统的多主体互动机制基础上,与会者分别关注了创业生态系统的典型载体--中关村、硅谷和中国县域电商。吉林大学蔡莉对中关村的发展过程进行了系统调查,通过翔实的数据指出中关村已经发展成为一个较为成熟的创业生态系统,不同主体之间的互动集中体现为基于机会集的互动。浙江大学邬爱其重点探讨了美国硅谷创业生态系统的功能升级经验。他发现,硅谷创业生态系统经历了五个发展阶段,表现出四大区域特征,即知识密集型行业就业结构、强大的区域技术创新能力、活跃的创新创业投资、鲜明的人口与教育文化特征。硅谷创业生态系统持续演进的根本动力在于围绕创业企业的互动机制,构建了以特色化创业企业为中心的动力模型,这个动力模型的本质是阐述性知识和程序性知识在整个生态系统中的合理分布和动态平衡,从而推动创业企业在突破式创新和渐进式创新方面的并行发展。作为一个创业者,中国县域互联网+扶贫协作联盟秘书长莫问剑提出了优化县域电商生态系统的策略。从创业生态系统的角度来看,电商平台企业在农村的战略定位、政府系列支持性政策的出台及推动县域电商蓬勃发展的同时,也带来了三大问题：政府政策性投入不够、落地不到位;平台电商、培训机构工作的流于形式;县域电商发展内生动力不足。为此,莫问剑认为县域电商内生动力是构建县域电商生态系统的关键,必须实现公共服务体系、培训体系、县乡村物流体系和农产品供应链体系的协同并进,实现整个县域生态的价值重构和再创造。 以上观点从不同角度、不同侧重点解读了创业生态系统,认为创业生态系统的中心应该是创业企业,创业企业发展的关键是建立良性的生态结构和通畅的互动机制,确保创业企业能够持续发现和创造机会,从而突破创业的资本、人才、知识以及合法性约束,实现创业企业可持续成长。 三、创业生态系统的微观机制 文化环境是创业企业所面临的重要环境,在不同文化环境下创业企业会表现出各具特色的行为特征。上海大学于晓宇等重点关注了不同创业文化背景下的创业失败现象,探讨了中国式创业失败在归因、学习与决策方面的特点。他利用多案例研究和扎根研究方法,比较了中美创业失败案例,归纳出中国创业者在创业失败归因、学习和随后决策的特点。中国创业者面对创业失败更倾向自我归因,而不是环境问题;在创业失败学习方面,更强调对外部环境的学习,而不是自我素质的改善;在创业失败后决策,更倾向于承诺升级,而不是退出。浙江工商大学陈宇峰重点关注了温州模式,分析了金融危机背景下温州企业家所面临的文化环境对其经营失败的影响。他认为微观根源在于企业家层面的以关系型交易为特征的文化环境,企业家所嵌入的血缘关系、人缘关系和地缘关系极大地影响了企业家行为,这使得个别企业家的失败进而演化为整个地区的危机。 除了文化环境,创业企业所处的技术环境、区域环境对创业行为也有影响。东北财经大学韵江探讨了“互联网+”生态下的企业社会责任创新问题。他认为,“互联网+”对商品价值带来新的挑战,使得商品的“功能价值”下滑,而“信息价值”和“体验价值”增加;“互联网+”对产业结构产生了重大影响,削弱了行业的进入壁垒和在位企业的垄断性;“互联网+”也带来了消费者地位的变化,使得传统的企业控制转变为消费者控制。因此,“互联网+”重构了现代企业的生存空间,表现为以消费者为中心,涵盖内外部不同利益相关者的网络结构,这就极大地改变了企业的经营行为,引导了企业的基于责任竞争力的企业社会责任创新。在此基础上,韵江构建了以平等和公民责任为中心,以“信息”责任创新、“通路”责任创新和“互动”责任创新为核心的企业社会责任创新内容框架。 武汉大学周洋和华语音研究发现,网络使用不仅提高了家庭的创业意愿,还显著提高了创业收入。进一步的机制分析表明,网络使用的促进作用主要源于网络便利了人们的社会交往和信息获取。浙江财经大学田家欣等人发现,产业集群的多维邻近性能够直接促进集群新创企业的成长,对集群内部已建企业的模仿能够促进集群新创企业的成长。 创业者的个体特征与学习机制也是微观层面的热点话题。山东财经大学陈寒松认为,新企业商业模式的形成是一个从无到有、逐渐演进的设计过程,期间伴随着多种学习交互作用机制;对于大学生创业者,侧重于传统行业的创业者更多采取经验学习方式,侧重于新兴行业的创业者更多地采取认知学习方式;不能单纯地谈经验学习,经验学习需要向认知学习过渡,并通过实践学习,反复试错提升企业学习能力。 浙江工商大学黎常和夏晓勤的实证研究表明,女性相对于男性并没有表现出更低的创业意愿和个人态度,但女性在感知创业行为控制和主观规范方面要低于男性;感知行为控制在性别与创业意愿之间的关系中起完全中介作用,而个人态度和主观规范起部分中介作用。     

企业开放式创新中知识链模型及管理策略

在开放式创新过程中,知识的创造、获取、转移、共享及利用跨越了组织边界,提高了知识管理的复杂性和动态性,企业需要考虑如何在与利益相关者的知识互动中提高创新绩效。基于开放式创新和知识管理理论,剖析了企业知识链的4个环节——知识获取、知识转移与共享、知识吸收与整合、知识保护与创新,并根据外部知识源的不同,分析了各类外部知识源与核心企业之间的知识管理过程。     

电商企业创新策略的演化博弈分析——基于计算经济学的仿真研究

本文基于演化博弈理论探讨了电商企业创新决策的演化过程,建立了电商企业间的演化博弈模型,根据复制动态方程得到了电商企业的行为演化规律和演化稳定策略.本文通过对参数进行赋值,利用MATLAB进行计算机仿真,模拟了不同参数水平下,电商企业创新策略选择的演化过程.研究表明:在影响电商企业创新行为选择的因素中,创新成本节约系数越...     

知识转移效用下沉睡知识激活的障碍因素研究

一国或一企业的创新能力取决于对知识存量的利用方式和应用效率。无论是从自主创新效用的经济维度、知识分配力,还是从投入产出比角度考量,知识转移都是我国创新体系中最薄弱的环节。绩效低下的原因包括科技体制缺陷、企业管理低下和知识本身的微观特性等。基于此,从改变创新范式、提高激励机制、激活再利用沉睡知识等方面探讨了提升知识转移绩效的方法,使粗放型的知识转移模式向集约型利用方式转变。     

企业合作创新本质的理论分析

合作创新是企业进行技术创新的重要组织形式,交易成本理论、战略管理理论、产业组织理论、知识管理理论和社会资本理论均从不同的角度揭示了合作创新的本质。交易费用理论认为合作创新关系是一种介于市场交易和层级组织之间的经济形式;战略管理理论则认为合作创新是一种通过利用企业互补关系来有效地联合各参与企业的资源,使企业价值最大化的机制;产业组织理论认为合作创新不仅节约了企业的研发投入,还在一定程度上克服了技术的溢出效应,将创新的外部性内部化;知识管理理论提出合作创新是知识积累的一种方式,是企业提升核心竞争力的重要方式;社会资本理论认为合作创新就是企业通过创新网络,吸收知识、信息和资源,积累外部社会资本,提升能力的过程。     

科技服务业与制造企业互动创新机理研究——基于知识转移与创新视角

为了阐明科技服务业与制造企业互动创新的机理,在分析科技服务业在区域创新体系中功能的基础上,建立了基于知识转移与创新视角的互动创新的系统动力学模型,运用vensimPLE软件进行仿真,分析了互动过程中知识转移与创新的变化趋势,并对系统进行了灵敏度分析,研究了影响知识转移与创新效率和效果的因素。结果表明,在知识转移过程中,科技服务业和制造企业的知识势能呈S形增长,通过互动不仅发生了知识转移,而且实现了知识创新。影响知识转移与创新的主要因素是互动技能和知识势能差。     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

Neurally reconstructing expected utility

While the concept of “expected utility” informs many theories of decision making, little is known about whether and how the human brain might compute this quantity. This article reviews a series of functional magnetic resonance imaging (FMRI) experiments designed to localize brain regions that respond in anticipation of increasing amounts of monetary incentives. These studies collectively suggest that anticipation of increasing monetary gains activates a subcortical region of the ventral striatum in a magnitude-proportional manner. This ventral striatal activation is not evident during anticipation of losses. Actual gain outcomes instead activate a region of the mesial prefrontal cortex. During anticipation of gain, ventral striatal activation is accompanied by feelings characterized by increasing arousal and positive valence. These findings affirm the role of emotion in the anticipation of incentives, and may provide an initial step towards a neural reconstruction of expected utility.     

Duplication, Growth and ‘Total Return Economics’

Maintenance consumption is an expense recovered in product prices, yet also a source of taste satisfaction which must be exhausted, rather than reinvested, from the capital affording it. This riddle is solved in the duplication rules: the cost of maintenance consumption is recovered in pay and prices, but an equal flow is exhausted from the human capital of the worker earning the pay. The rules impact tradition in several ways. If output is defined in principle as value added, then it cannot also be described as consumption plus net investment without double-counting the maintenance consumption recovered in prices. Also rate of return in the stationary state is not zero, but is the rate sufficient to offset the exhaustion of individual human capital. The rules lead to new insights into economic return, and support an argument that all growth at the scale of closure is due to productivity gain rather than to thrift.     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Simulating the Effect of Regulatory Systems in a Fishery, An Application to the French Driftnet Albacore Fleet

With a thin economic component, most bio-economic models of fisheries failto assess the effects of the regulation systems on firms. In order to analysethe short term consequences of different management schemes, a simulationmodel is applied to the French driftnet albacore fleet: licence allocation withdriftnet regulation, individual quotas, and individual transferable quotaswithout any input control. Vessel technology is estimated by using the datacollected, and groups of vessels are distinguished according to criteria ofperformance. We present the adjustment within firms and between groupsunder different scenarios (limited entry with and without driftnetregulation, individual quotas and individual transferable quotas allocation),and we compare their results in terms of quasi-rent value and otherindicators such as hake harvests or dolphin by-catches.     

Knowledge as a Path-Dependence Process

By following a new approach proposed by Cognitive and Neuroeconomics, this paper presents and extends that part of Hayek's theory concerning knowledge in path-dependent terms, and shows that this is a fertile theory, opening new lines of inquiry for contemporary economics. In his theory of knowledge Hayek shows that the dynamics of economic change is path-dependent, in a different and more profound way than in the rest of the path-dependent literature. This literature deals with an important controversy, which will be also discussed and its specific and original meaning will be highlighted. As it will emerge, knowledge as a path-dependent process is consistent with cognitive theories of perception and learning and it plays a more important role than is traditionally assumed. Path-dependence is in fact always present in the cognitive dimension of perception and in individual decision-making processes, as well as in the processes of organizational innovation, and even in the macro-dimension of institutional change. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.