国际贸易的麦敕勒悖论及其验证：来自美国及OECD成员国的经验证据

麦敕勒（Metzler,1949）指出,对大国的进口行业征收关税可能会降低其国内相对价格,因而减少了它在经济中的产量份额。针对这一观点,本文发展了关于国民生产总值（GDP）转换对数函数系统的一个理论模型,并据此估计美国贸易政策对其行业产量份额的影响。通过采用美国及其经济合作与发展组织（OECD）贸易成员国的行业面板数据,并在控制要素禀赋和技术创新对行业产量份额的影响后,得出了在服装和玻璃行业呈现高关税导致低产量份额的经验证据。在控制了由贸易的政治经济因素导致的内生性及运用各类非关税壁垒代替关税作为测量行业保护的工具后,这些发现也同样稳健。因此,本文的贡献在一定程度上弥补了国际贸易中该领域实证研究方面的空白：证明了麦敕勒悖论理论不再只是一种可能性,而的确在服装业中存在。     

美国碳关税政策对中美贸易的影响

基于环境保护和贸易保护的目的,美国提出了征收碳关税诉求。这将对中国对美国的商品出口产生什么样的影响?本文根据我国各行业的碳排放强度和出口贸易细分数据,分析了美国征收碳关税可能会对我国各行业出口贸易的影响,并提出,中国应该在多边贸易组织的框架下对美国将实行的碳关税政策进行限制约束,及时调整国内产业结构。     

关税减让对就业的影响:理论分析及对中国数据的实证检验

本文首先理论研究了关税减让对企业劳动需求的影响,然后采用中国入世前后1999-2004年制造业28个行业的面板数据,实证检验了中美双边关税减让对中国制造业行业就业的影响。结果发现,中美双边关税减让都提高了中国制造业行业的就业,并且这一正面影响在低技术行业更为明显。由于关税水平能够反映贸易保护的程度,因此本文的实证结果表明,国内外贸易保护程度加大会减少中国就业,而贸易自由化则会增加中国就业。     

中美贸易的反比较优势之谜

通过统计分析,本文发现中美贸易间存在"反比较优势之谜"。即美国在其具有技术上比较优势的行业,对中国出口相对较少,且在其比较优势越大的行业,对中国出口量相比世界其他地区越少;相比之下,中国对美国的出口则符合比较优势原理。为进一步检验该现象,本文将Eaton-Kortum模型扩展到多部门,并将其应用于中美贸易结构影响因素的经验分析。结果显示:在控制了行业生产规模和贸易成本等因素后,比较优势在中美双边贸易中的不对称作用依然存在,且结果稳健。     

内部货币与我国最优关税政策研究

本文将内部货币引入一个包含两国两商品的纯交换经济,在考虑贸易关税的情形下,将此拓展成一个Nash关税博弈模型。我们用2005年中国与世界其他国家(ROW)的产出和双边贸易数据对该贸易模型进行数值分析,考察一般经济均衡条件下内部货币的引入对我国与ROW最优关税政策的影响。研究表明:(1)内部货币对贸易双方关税博弈的Nash均衡有显著影响,即相对于无内部货币的情形,内部货币的存在将削弱我国在关税博弈中的关税报复力量。(2)中国在2005年的实际关税接近于不考虑ROW关税报复时的最优关税水平及Nash均衡关税,而ROW当时的实际关税却远低于其最优关税和Nash均衡关税水平,这说明我国在2005年所采取的关税政策合乎本国利益。     

中美贸易摩擦对我国海洋渔业的影响及对策研究

中美贸易摩擦已经涉及我国海产品及海洋渔业产业,其中我国对原产于美国的海产品加征关税已经实施,美国已发布对我国加征 10%关税的海产品清单。研究发现,中美互为重要且较稳定的海产品贸易伙伴国,中美贸易摩擦对我国海产品生产、进出口、消费产生负面影响,主要包括推动海产养殖成本上升、导致美国自中国进出口份额下降近一半、引起海产品价格上涨等问题。提出了扩大国内国际市场、推进海洋渔业产业转型升级和加大海产品加工企业财税扶持力度等应对建议。     

贸易自由化、外资并购与寡头市场的福利效应分析--对(Farrell,Shapiro 1990)模型在开放条件下的扩展

本文试用扩展的（Farrell,Shapiro1990）模型,在关税减让为特征的自由贸易化趋势下,对同质产品的横向外资并购带来的价格及福利效应进行边际分析。主要观点：在一定条件下,（1）对行业价格效应的判定,其符号取决于两个变量的权衡,即关税外生性下调导致外商均衡产量的变动和关税下调后外资并购行为引致的并购方整体产量的变动。（2）对一国社会福利效应的判定不存在单一化结论。关税下调后的外资并购行为,其引发的外部福利效应与关税下调前的情况相比,有利程度可能趋于下降,甚至走向反面——变为负效应。但是,关税下调带来的社会福利效应在很大层面上会带来正的福利效应。     

贸易自由化影响了研发创新效率吗?

文章基于技术创新的两阶段视角,利用2004-2011年中国工业行业层面的面板数据,在考虑环境规制和外商直接投资等因素的情况下,从关税减让的角度实证检验了贸易自由化对研发创新效率的影响及其行业差异.研究发现:(1)中国工业研发创新效率整体上处于增长态势,但存在明显的阶段性差异和行业异质性;(2)“入世”后,我国实施的关税减让政策是富有成效的,即关税减让显著促进了研发创新效率的提升,但其对技术开发效率的促进作用远小于对技术转化效率的促进作用;(3)关税减让对促进两阶段创新效率的提升存在一定的条件限制,关税减让水平只有小于一定的门槛值时,才会促进两阶段创新效率的提高;(4)在技术密度、环境污染程度、R&D强度、垄断程度和行业规模等不同要素约束下,关税减让对中国工业两阶段创新效率具有显著的行业异质性影响.     

碳关税对世界经济和农产品贸易的影响研究

自碳关税被提出并实行以来,不仅对我国经济产生了巨大影响,而且对世界经济与农产品贸易也产生了不可忽视的影响,尤其是在全球能源资源消耗巨大、农产品贸易往来频繁的当今社会.本文对碳关税的定义及其对世界经济与农产品贸易的影响进行了全面细致的探究,并通过试验研究发现,碳关税对世界经济产生的影响是负面的,它会阻碍世界经济均衡增长.同时碳关税对农产品贸易的影响也偏向于负面,因为其会使农产品贸易总额出现小幅下降,但在改善农产品贸易结构方面碳关税发挥的是正向作用.     

中国加入WTO后十大开放领域和开放进程是怎样的?

(1)削减关税。全面削减关税,平均税率由221%减至17%;对于农产品税项5年内减至145—15%;取消所有出口补贴。(2)开放农产品市场。对小麦、粟米、稻米及棉花实施“关税比例配额制”以开放市场;逐渐撤消由国家控制的豆油贸易。(3)限制对美国出口(包括纺织品)急增。控制中国对美出口     

A two-sector Kaleckian model of growth and distribution with endogenous productivity dynamics

This study extends a two-sector Kaleckian model of output growth and income distribution by incorporating endogenous labour productivity growth. The model is composed of investment goods and consumption goods production sectors. The impact of a change in wage and profit shares on capacity utilisation and output growth rates at the sectoral and aggregate levels are identified. The study reveals short-run cyclical capacity utilisation rates and productivity growth dynamics. Even if the short-run steady state is stable, the capital accumulation rate in the consumption goods sector must decrease more than that in the investment sector for long-run stability. When simultaneous rises in profit shares in both the sectors affect long-run aggregate economic growth differently at a steady state, the distributional interests between the same class in different sectors may hamper the long-run economic growth. A policy message is that the effect of income distribution on industrial output growth is not always beneficial. These phenomena are specific to two-sector models and cannot be observed when using conventional aggregate growth models.     

The effect of output growth volatility on output growth: empirical evidence from Turkey

This article assesses the effect of output growth volatility on output growth within a stochastic-volatility-in-mean model with a time-varying framework for an open small economy: Turkey. Until now, the empirical evidence on industrial production mainly reveals that this relationship is negative. However, in further examining different sectors and sub-sectors of industrial production, we find the sign of the relationship changes depending on the sector. Moreover, there is limited evidence that the sign of the relationship changes over time. Thus, the evidence reveals that the nature of the output growth volatility–output growth relationship is not uniform across sectors.     

产业政策、信贷配置与创新效率

近年来,国家产业政策对微观企业创新活动的影响正日益成为学界的关注热点,但是关于产业政策与市场力量协调性的研究却并不多见.文章以"十二五"期间(2011?2015年)沪深A股上市公司样本为考察对象,研究了产业政策和信贷配置分别作为一种外部因素而对企业创新产出效率所产生的影响,以检验政府政策、信贷配置和创新产出三者之间的关联性,对深度理解产业政策效应具有重要参考价值.实证结果表明:产业政策借助于政策引导和财政手段刺激了受产业政策支持企业专利产出的增加;外部信贷融资获得性低时,产业政策诱导有利于促进专利产出增加;而外部信贷融资获得性高时,则会削弱产业政策的诱导刺激效应(或呈倒"U"形关系).进一步研究表明,信贷配置在产业政策与专利产出关系中的调节效应是由财政扶助与信贷配置之间的替代效应所导致,这一结论为协调政府及市场力量的作用提供了经验证据.     

Emission taxes vs. environmental standards under partial ownership arrangements

This paper analyzes two pollution control instruments, uniform taxes and absolute standards, when polluting firms engage in partial ownership arrangements (POAs). Specifically, we examine the case of a bilateral POA between competing firms in which both hold equity shares on each other's profits as silent investments. We show that taxes and standards are equally efficacious in affecting the firms' output decisions and pollution emissions. Compared to the social planner's solution, a bilateral POA results in suboptimal outcomes with lower industrial output and consumer surplus. Firm profits are higher and environmental quality improves (since emissions decline), but social welfare decreases. We compare the equilibrium results associated with two different types of POAs (bilateral vs. unilateral), and examine their differences in welfare implications for the choice of policy options between taxes and standards.     

Why do Aggregate Production Functions Work? Fisher’s simulations,Shaikh’s identity and some new results

The literature on aggregation has shown that the conditions for successful aggregation of micro production functions into an aggregate production function are far too stringent to be believable (Fisher 1969, 1971). Despite this, aggregate production functions continue being used. The reason is that they seem to 'work'. This happens, however, because underlying every aggregate production function is the income accounting identity that links input and output, i.e. output equals wages plus profits. A simple algebraic transformation of this identity yields a form that resembles a production function (Shaikh, 1974, 1980). This paper uses Monte Carlo simulations to study two questions. First, how much spuriousness can help explain the relatively good fits of the Cobb-Douglas production function? The simulations show that the contribution of spuriousness to a high R 2 is minor once we properly account for the fact that input and output data used in production function estimations are linked through the income accounting identity. It is mostly the link through this identity that explains the results. Secondly, we study how much factor shares have to vary in an economy so as to render the Cobb-Douglas production function with a time trend a bad choice for modelling and estimation purposes. We conclude that the Cobb-Douglas form is robust to relatively large variations in the factor shares. What makes this form often fail are the variations in the growth rates of the wage and profit rates.     

China's structural change: A new SDA model

Based on the Deviation from Proportional Growth (DPG) model developed by H.B. Chenery and his coauthors (e.g., Chenery, 1960; Chenery et al., 1962; Chenery et al., 1986) and Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA) model proposed by Syrquin (1976), this paper develops a new SDA model that directly interprets the changes of sectoral shares of output. In addition, our decomposition also demonstrates that on top of the three typical factors influencing the structural changes, i.e., the final-goods demand structure, production technology, and import substitution, the ratio of final-goods demand over total output (φ) is one of the key factors in the determination of industrial structures. This ratio is often neglected in the existing literature. Applying this model to study the change of industrial structure in China from 1992 to 2005, we find that since the 1990s, China's industrialization was associated with the rise of machinery and electrical industries, and the decline of chemical industry. The main driving force is the export (foreign) demand, however factors like production technological structure changes, and import substitution contributed negatively. Both production technological structure changes and import substitution are also key factors that hinder the transformation of Chinese economy to the service orientation.     

Endowments,Specialization, and Policy

The paper explores the relationship between industry shares in production and their determinants including factor endowments, technology, and government policies, in a GDP–function framework. We use a new international panel dataset on production and trade compiled by the World Bank. As an intermediate step we calculate Hicks‐neutral productivity indices that vary across industries, time, and countries. We find that own‐TFP is robustly associated with industry shares across time and countries and that, after correcting for these productivity differences, output shares are related to factor endowments (Rybczynski effects) in a plausible way. Once Rybczynski effects are controlled for, we find little evidence of demand‐side policies (import tariffs) affecting the allocation of resources; we find, however, more role for supply‐side policies as the relative size of capital‐intensive industries is positively associated with infrastructure–capital endowments.     

An Optimal Currency Basket to Minimize Output and Inflation Volatility: Theory and an Application to Hong Kong

In this paper we develop a theoretical model of an optimal currency basket for a small open economy. A currency basket for the home economy is defined as a chosen weighted average of a subset of foreign currencies, and an optimal currency basket is taken to be one that minimizes a given weighted average of the expected output volatility and expected inflation volatility. This theoretical model is then applied to Hong Kong, which has adopted a currency board system for close to 30 years. We estimate an optimal currency basket for Hong Kong and compare its performance with the existing currency board system as well as with currency baskets whose weights are given by export and import trade shares.     

VERTICALLY INTEGRATED PRODUCTIVITY MEASURES: TESTS OF STANDARD ASSUMPTIONS

In this paper we use an input-output framework to examine two criticisms of standard measures of total factor productivity. These criticisms are (1) that the contribution of capital to productivity growth is underestimated, and (2) that the use of cost shares to weigh factor input contribution is questionable. Using various vertically integrated productivity measures we find that capital's productivity contribution is underestimated in the neoclassical formulation. We also find that in a Pasinetti-Rymes growth model, factor shares do not approximate output elasticities. We conclude that the argument made by Pasinetti, Rymes, and others is supported, that in long-run productivity analysis capital should not be treated as a primary input, but should be measured as an intermediate, produced input.     

Corporate taxation, incumbency advantage and entry

It is the purpose of this paper to show that corporation tax may affect industrial structure. Analyzing the effects of corporation tax, we demonstrate that it tends to favour incumbents over entrants. We further show that the effect of this advantage on an incumbent's output depends on his profit or loss history. An incumbent with a past profit is likely to produce a greater output, thereby partially or fully crowding out an entrant's output. In contrast, an incumbent with a past loss is more likely to produce a smaller output, making entry easier.