Non-linearity and Expectations in Niche-Development Trajectories: Ups and Downs in Dutch Biogas Development (1973-2003)

Non-linearity and changes in the direction of technological trajectories, are related to changes in cognitive rules and expectations that guide technical search and development activities. To explain such changes, the article uses the literature on niche development, which highlights interactions between learning processes, network building and expectations. A long-term case study on Dutch biogas development illustrates how these interactions explain non-linearity, but the case study also shows the importance of external regime dynamics. It is concluded that non-linearity and changes in niche expectations are related to both internal learning processes and external developments.     

“碳解锁”缝隙创新研究

对技术种群缝隙竞争演化模型的分析表明,在“碳锁定”背景下,低碳技术在主流市场会遭遇碳基技术体制的排挤,缝隙市场能为低碳技术的发展和应用提供受保护的空间,为实现“碳解锁”创造条件。缝隙创新分为竞争性缝隙创新和互补性缝隙创新两类,相应地,“碳解锁”缝隙创新战略分为替代战略和兼容战略。二者实现“碳解锁”的路径和方式不同,替代战略包括竞争性缝隙形成、缝隙积累与分叉、体制替代3个阶段,兼容战略包括互补性缝隙形成、体制兼容和体制低碳化转型3个阶段。在“碳解锁”路径选择时需权衡这两种战略的利弊。     

Oil Prices: Governance Failures and Geopolitical Consequences

This article links two major areas of work on the geographies of oil: socially produced scarcity and the ‘new realities’ of oil, with wider geographical inquiries, mainly global energy governance. It explores how in the current context characterised by oversupply, power stands out as a key factor in the geopolitics of prices, the interactions amongst energy institutions, the role of supply and demand, and the preferences of the actors involved. Geopolitical approaches find a niche in the gaps left by the increasing complexities of global energy governance. In this regard, energy geopolitics may be thought of as ‘governance by other means’, an alternative to failed external energy governance solutions. The article then focuses on the consequences of the drop in oil prices on producer countries and how it will impact the major issues that dominate the literature on energy security. It concludes by stating that there is a need to rethink the geopolitics of energy security in order to incorporate the global governance institutions’ failure to facilitate cooperation as another cause of the re-securitisation of energy policies.     

Regime shifts to sustainability through processes of niche formation: The approach of strategic niche management

The unsustainability of the present trajctories of technical change in sectors such as transport and agriculture is widely recognized. It is far from clear, however, how a transition to more sustainable modes of development may be achieved. Sustainable technologies that fulful important user requirements in terms of performance and price are most often not available on the market. Ideas of what might be more sustainable technologies exist, but the long development times, uncertainty about market demand and social gains, and the need for change at different levels in organization, technology, infastructure and the wider social and institutional context-provide a great barrier. This raises the question of how the potential of more sustainable technologies and modes of development may be exploited. In this article we describe how technical change is locked into dominant technological regimes, and present a perspective, called strategic niche management, on how to expedite a transition into a new regime. The perspective consists of the creation and/or management of nichesfor promising technologies.     

Transforming the Energy System—the Evolution of the German Technological System for Solar Cells

To improve our understanding of processes involved in the formation and growth of new technological systems in the energy sector and to identify the associated key challenges for policy makers managing the transformation process, we examine the development of the German technological system for solar cells over the past 25 years. We use a "technological system' approach in which we will trace the evolution of actors, networks and institutions that have a bearing on the generation and diffusion of solar cells. An initial preparatory stage lasted until about 1989 and was mainly characterized by knowledge build-up induced by a Federal RDD programme. This was followed by a second stage characterized by political struggle over the regulatory framework and a subsequent beginning of a virtuous circle for solar cells. In the concluding discussion, we emphasize four key features of the evolution of the technological system: (1) the role of a coalition of system builders that successfully influenced the regulatory framework so that markets could be formed: (2) the considerable length of the learning period and the large number of actors that need to learn; (3) the importance of policies that form early markets (not only early niche markets, but beyond those) as only markets may induce firms to enter and learn, and (4) the need to run market formation policies simultaneous to policies that maintain technological variety.     

Local niche planning and its strategic implications for implementation of energy-efficient technology

It is widely recognised that the world is facing climate challenges that necessitate transitions towards more energy-efficient buildings. A key challenge is that visions of energy efficient buildings in policies often fail to become aligned with existing local practices. In order to overcome such a gap between policy visions and their implementation in practice specific forms of strategic work is needed, according to new transformative ideas in spatial planning. The aim of this paper is to characterize the transformative capacities of this kind of strategic work at the spatial scale of the town in order to assess how such activities engage with sustainable transitions. The theoretical contribution of the paper is to compare strategic work performed in transformative forms of spatial planning with the strategic work intended in strategic niche management, which represent a change-management process for enabling transitions. The study outlines the proactive spatial planning of a Danish local authority in order to illustrate how the strategic work performed in this kind of local development project represents a special form of niche management that is able to create room for innovation and challenge existing socio-technical regimes in the building sector, but still different to typical strategic niche management processes. Based on this empirical study, the paper challenges the narrow focus on niches around technology development processes in strategic niche management by pointing towards niche planning in local development projects as another relevant context for niche management. However, as discussed in the paper, this assumes a more strategic form of planning than is often practised today, where more emphasis is put on how planning can contribute to promoting sustainable transitions.     

What influences the diffusion of grassroots innovations for sustainability? Investigating community currency niches

Community action for sustainability is a promising site of socio-technical innovation. Here we test the applicability of co-evolutionary niche theories of innovation diffusion (strategic niche management, SNM) to the context of ‘grassroots innovations’ (GIs). We present new empirical findings from an international study of 12 community currency niches (such as Local Exchange Trading Schemes, time banks, and local currencies). These are parallel systems of exchange, designed to operate alongside mainstream money, meeting additional sustainability needs. Our findings confirm SNM predictions that niche-level activity correlates with diffusion success, but we highlight additional or confounding factors, and how niche theories might be adapted to better fit civil society innovations. In so doing, we develop a model of GI niche diffusion which extends existing work and tailors it to this specific context. The paper concludes with a series of theoretically informed recommendations for practitioners and policy-makers to support the development and potential of GIs.     

Initial infrastructure development strategies for the transition to sustainable mobility

Within the Dutch transition policy framework, the transition to hydrogen-based transport is seen as a promising option towards a sustainable transport system. One aspect of such transition processes that is emphasized in transition management is learning about user behaviour and preferences. However, while earlier research on sustainable mobility acknowledges the importance of refuelling infrastructure, the question of how to unroll such an infrastructure and the role of user practices and user behaviour largely remains unanswered. In this paper we present an agent-based model to study the process of development from niche to market for hydrogen vehicles. We thereby focus on the role of users in this process and support our model by empirical data. Within this model the effects of different strategies for hydrogen infrastructure development on hydrogen vehicle fleet penetration are studied. More specifically, diffusion patterns for hydrogen vehicles are created through the interactions of consumers, refuelling stations and technological learning. The main result is that social network effects do influence the technological trajectory of hydrogen vehicles and thus should be taken into account by infrastructure developers and policymakers.     

Decreasing energy use in buildings by 50% by 2050 — A backcasting study using stakeholder groups

This paper describes a backcasting study focusing on fulfilment of a national target to decrease energy consumption in residential and commercial buildings by 50% by 2050 compared with the consumption in 1995, and identifying possible measures for achieving it. A method based on a combination of backcasting methodology and focus group methodology was used. Two different scenarios were developed. They were used in discussions with stakeholders in the building sector, to explore and identify measures and actors important for target fulfillment. The main outcomes were ideas for strategies and measures needed to achieve the target. The current potential for target fulfilment was also analysed and discussed. The discussions in the different stakeholder groups were mainly concerned with changes in attitude and behaviour and the need for radical changes in social structures. For example, enhanced communication between actors in the building chain, and the need for relevant feedback in order to illustrate the link between the effort in decreasing energy use and actual outcome. The findings suggest that there is sufficient technical potential to achieve the target by 2050 but that this potential will not be realised to a sufficient extent. Achieving the target would be facilitated by policy that is oriented more towards identifying actors with direct influence to promote change. An analysis of incentives for these actors to act, and how different actors can cooperate for energy-efficient solutions should be integrated into the process of suggesting and implementing policy measures.     

Strategic niche management of social innovations: the case of social entrepreneurship

Strategic niche management (SNM), a tool to understand and manage radical socio-technical innovations and facilitate their diffusion, has always departed from a technical artefact. Many radical innovations, however, do not revolve around such an artefact. Social entrepreneurship is a new business model that combines a social goal with a business mentality and is heralded as an important new way to create social value such as sustainability. This study examines if and how SNM can be applied to such a social innovation. It identifies theoretical and practical limitations and proposes solutions. The main conclusion is that SNM can be used to analyse radical social innovation, although it requires rethinking the initial entry point for research and management. Exemplifying quotes are proposed as an alternative. Second, this paper suggests using values to describe niche–regime interaction as a better way to anticipate future niche–regime interactions.