农村政策性金融与财政支农关系

政策性金融的产生及其作用的发挥,实际上就是财政职能不断强化的一个产物,改革开放中后期以来,我国农村政策性金融体系的功能趋于弱化,其原因在于:财政实力被过多地削弱,公共产品资源配置不够合理,过分倚重商业性金融的支农效应而弱化了财政对农村政策性金融的支持。为此,应当健全财政对农村政策性金融持续投入机制与补偿机制,协调好财政政策与货币政策的关系,财政还应承担起对政策性金融业务监督管理的责任。     

Second-best theory and the use of multiple policy instruments

In many cases policy makers employ multiple instruments to address a single environmental problem, but much of the economics literature on instrument choice focuses on comparing properties of single policy instruments. We argue that under a fairly broad set of circumstances the use of multiple policy instruments can be justified as optimal in a second-best world. We examine two broad categories of second-best policy making: cases with multiple market failures only some of which can be corrected at any one time; and cases with exogenous (often political) constraints that cannot be removed. The fact that the use of multiple policy instruments can be justified economically in these two cases does not imply, however, that all multiple instruments employed in actual practice are economically justified.     

政府与粮农目标偏差:表现、实质与矫治

政府和粮农的行为目标存在必然的偏差,这对我国粮食政策效果产生一定负效应.在粮食补贴、粮食价格保护和保证国家粮食安全这些政策上,偏差均有表现.偏差的实质分为三个层面:自然层面上,人地矛盾日益尖锐;制度层面上,产销区责权不对等、分工不合理;国家层面上,稳定与发展难求两全.只有通过市场化、可持续化、国际化的方法,才能修正偏差,实现政府与粮农行为目标的持续协调.     

Capital mobility and the effectiveness of fiscal policy in open economies

This paper uses a dynamic general equilibrium two-country optimizing ‘new-open economy macroeconomics’ model to analyze the consequences of international capital mobility for the effectiveness of fiscal policy. Conventional wisdom suggests that higher capital mobility diminishes the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The model laid out in this paper provides an example that a higher degree of capital mobility can also increase the effectiveness of fiscal policy. This tends to be the case if the stance of monetary policy can be described by means of a simple monetary policy rule.     

环境创新税收政策解构与重构：由单一工具转向组合工具

税收政策工具内置的行为诱导、社会公平、经济发展等性能，使其成为激励环境创新的重要手段。税收政策工具可以解构出环境税与税收优惠两大核心政策工具。其中，环境税将污染行为的外部成本内部化，向企业传递价格压力信号，迫使其作出缴税、减产抑或投入环境创新的抉择，本质上是一种反向压力工具；税收优惠则是一种正向鼓励工具，以减轻税负的方式将应收税款让渡于创新研发，将污染企业向投入环境创新的方向引导。两个政策子工具虽然作用机制相反，但政策目标一致，通过科学、精细的税制设计，实现不同政策功能协同互补，以发挥组合工具“1+1＞2”的政策效应，最大化提升企业环境创新积极性。此外，还应统筹税收政策工具与其它政策工具的组合使用。     

Safe Minimum Standards in Dynamic Resource Problems: Conditions for Living on the Edge of Risk

Safe Minimum Standards (SMSs) has been advocated as a policy rule for certain environmental problems where uncertainty about risks and consequences are thought to be profound. This paper explores the rationale for such a policy within both static and dynamic frameworks and derives conditions for when SMS can be summarily dismissed as a policy choice and for when SMS can be defended as an optimal policy based on standard economic criteria. It turns out that these conditions can be checked with quite limited information about damages and risks. In order to analyze the SMSs in a dynamic setting, we develop a method for solving optimal control problems when state space is divided into risky and non-risky sub-sets.      

Sustainability Policy and Environmental Policy

A theoretical, representative‐agent economy with a depletable resource stock, polluting emissions and productive capital is used to contrast environmental policy, which internalises externalised environmental values, with sustainability policy, which achieves some form of intergenerational equity. The obvious environmental policy comprises an emissions tax and a resource stock subsidy, each equal to the respective external cost or benefit. Sustainability policy comprises an incentive affecting the choice between consumption and investment, and can be a consumption tax, capital subsidy or investment subsidy, or a combination thereof. Environmental policy can reduce the strength of the sustainability policy needed. More specialised results are derived in a small open economy with no environmental effects on utility.     

AN OPTIMAL SCHEME FOR INJECTING PUBLIC FUNDS UNDER THE MORAL HAZARD INCENTIVE FOR BANKS

I consider whether the injection of cash funds into a bank through the purchase of securities together with a bank closure policy can be designed as a strong incentive instrument for preventing the bank from taking moral hazard action in the presence of deposit insurance. Under certain conditions, the regulator's optimal policy can be to inject new cash funds into a bank through the purchase of securities, even though there are no bankruptcy costs. Furthermore, the regulator may transform the private bank into a government-owned bank. However, this kind of injection policy cannot be independent of the bank closure policy.     

投机资本流入、利率政策的两难问题和货币政策工具的最优搭配

本文构建理论模型分析了如何选择利率和存款准备金率工具的最优搭配,从而在防止通货膨胀和防止热钱流入之间取得最佳平衡。模型显示存款准备金率只对银行贷款起直接抑制作用,当人们通过非银行渠道融资时,可规避准备金率的限制,使其效果下降。而利率政策通过套利机制也对非银行融资起直接限制作用。而且利率政策可以避免对信贷资金分配的不对称限制,使资金分配更平衡有效,所以利率政策相对占优。但当利率吸引投机资本时,可搭配使用准备金率政策以减少利率需要提高的程度,以减少热钱流入。     

Policy futures markets with multiple goals

Previous work in monetary policy futures markets under a single policy goal have shown this approach to be effective at eliminating the circularity problem inherent with private-sector targeting strategies. We extend this monetary policy setting framework to a typical multiple goal policy objective: inflation and output stabilization. We also demonstrate how the prices in policy futures markets can help resolve debates over important policy questions.     

我国货币政策传导机制的体制约束及其重构

本文通过对我国货币政策传导机制的全面分析,认为在实体经济发生根本性的结构变化之后,与原有计划经济相适应的金融体制是造成货币政策低效的主要原因。     

略论中国货币政策有效性

在界定货币政策有效性的概念基础上对中国的货币政策效果进行实证分析,进而提出提高中国货币政策有效性的对策建议。货币政策目标的实现程度是衡量货币政策有效性的标志。货币政策有效性的内涵就是货币政策具有真实效应,能够对真实经济变量产生影响。货币政策有效性就是货币政策能够在保持物价稳定、国际收支平衡的前提下促进经济增长和降低失业。     

Policy persistence in environmental regulation

We study the optimal emission standards under uncertain pollution damages and transaction costs associated with policy changes in a dynamic setting. We consider three alternative forms of transactions costs and show that they can lead to different kinds of delays of policy changes or smaller scales of these changes. Thus, policy persistence can be a rational response of forward-looking policy makers to future transaction costs, rather than an inefficient outcome of the current political process.     

Does trade liberalization assist third-world industrial development? Experience and lessons of the 1980s

The 1980s can be regarded as a decade of trade liberalization in developing countries. This article reviews the evidence on the impact of trade policy reform measures on economic performance, and identifies a number of policy implications that can be drawn from this experience.     

Comparing students by a matching analysis – on early school leaving in Dutch cities

In case of regional discretionary on the implementation of policy measures, central governments often consider differences in outcomes as an indication that one policy was more effective than another policy. If uniform incentives are provided to motivate regional policy makers, these incentives can be discouraging when the underlying populations differ. Empirically, this study compares early school leaving between the four largest Dutch cities. It shows that considering regional differences as performance measures can be dangerous if differences in population characteristics are not properly taken into account. Methodologically, this study contrasts the use of a traditional probit model with a more advanced iterative matching procedure.     

当前宏观经济政策中几个疑点问题分析

本在充分肯定当前宏观经济政策基本走向的同时,对财政政策、货币政策、收入分配政策中几个疑点问题进行了全面深入的分析,提出了富有新意的见解。作的结论是：“积极的财政政策”、“适当的货币政策”,这样的概括和称谓不科学;反通货紧缩用货币量的单纯扩张不能通缩的结果很可能是滞胀;公职人员加薪不能带动其他社会成员增收,其它社会群体增加收入要从他们所处的现实经济关系中去寻找。     

THE ECONOMICS AND POLITICS OF INDUSTRIAL POLICY: SOME LESSONS FROM THE U.S. AND ABROAD

The accelerating United States trade deficit has again focused widespread political attention on industrial policy issues. However, given the breadth and complexity of the industrial policy issues, we can be confident that strengthening the U.S. international trade position will not be sufficient to quell concern over this area of economic policy.     

Measuring the immeasurable — A survey of sustainability indices

Sustainability indices for countries provide a one-dimensional metric to valuate country-specific information on the three dimensions of sustainable development: economic, environmental, and social conditions. At the policy level, they suggest an unambiguous yardstick against which a country's development can be measured and even a cross-country comparison can be performed. This article reviews the explanatory power of various sustainability indices applied in policy practice. We show that these indices fail to fulfill fundamental scientific requirements making them rather useless if not misleading with respect to policy advice.     

Optimal monetary and fiscal policies in a search theoretic model of monetary exchange

Search models of monetary exchange commonly assume that terms of trade in anonymous markets are determined via Nash bargaining, which generally causes monetary equilibrium to be inefficient. Bargaining frictions add to the classical intertemporal distortion present in most monetary models, whereby agents work today to obtain cash that can be used only in future transactions. In this paper, we study the properties of optimal fiscal and monetary policy within the framework of Lagos and Wright (2005). We show that fiscal policy can be implemented to alleviate underproduction while money is still essential. If lump sum monetary transfers are available, a production subsidy can restore the efficiency of monetary equilibria. The Friedman rule belongs to the optimal policy set, but higher inflation rates are also possible. When lump-sum monetary transfers are not available, equilibrium allocations are generally not first-best. Nevertheless, fiscal policy still results in substantial welfare gains. Money can be extracted from circulation via a sales tax on decentralized market activities, and the Friedman rule is only optimal if the buyer has relatively low bargaining power.     

Transaction costs and environmental policy design

This article synthesizes the growing empirical literature on transaction costs to identify pragmatic design recommendations for environmental and natural resource policies. The New Institutional Economics literature recognizes that appropriate policy choice and design will be a function of the specific characteristics of the problem. The physical and institutional determinants of both transaction costs and abatement costs should be considered in the policy design process due to potential interactions between them. Analysts also need to incorporate the extent to which the technologies, institutional environment, governance structures, or policy designs can be changed; some factors can only be adjusted to or “designed around” while others can be designed differently. This framework highlights the importance of property rights since transaction costs will be incurred to obtain or retain property rights and since the rights assignment may affect both the magnitudes and distribution of costs. Another implication is that education and extension programs or use of behavioral economics concepts to affect choices can be cost-effective in some circumstances. Policy design should take advantage of economies of scale and foster technical change. Appropriate sequencing of policy instruments may decrease transaction costs, particularly if there is potential for technical change.