Decomposing the contribution of migration to poverty reduction: methodology and application to Tanzania

In an economy with migration, poverty changes are composed of a number of forces, including the income gains and losses realized by the various migration streams. We present a simple but powerful decomposition methodology that uses panel data to measure the contributions of different migration streams to overall poverty change. An application to Tanzania shows the new insights that are provided – in particular on the role of migration to secondary towns in poverty reduction.     

A simple preference foundation of cumulative prospect theory with power utility

Most empirical studies of rank-dependent utility and cumulative prospect theory have assumed power utility functions, both for gains and for losses. As it turns out, a remarkably simple preference foundation is possible for such models: Tail independence (a weakening of comonotonic independence which underlies all rank-dependent models) together with constant proportional risk aversion suffice, in the presence of common assumptions (weak ordering, continuity, and first stochastic dominance), to imply these models. Thus, sign dependence, the different treatment of gains and losses, and the separation of decision weights and utility are obtained free of charge.     

Overcoming digital poverty traps in rural Asia

The rapid spread of information and communication technology (ICT) in Asia offers the promise of a “digital revolution” for agriculture. But realizing such gains will depend on overcoming digital poverty traps, whereby significant numbers of poor smallholders inhabiting remote regions are unable to take advantage of the benefits of ICT for agriculture and thus remain mired in poverty. This phenomenon is illustrated in a model of a poor household located in a remote region that cannot accumulate sufficient ICT skills. To avoid such outcomes, policies need to be targeted at both the lack of access by smallholders to ICT for farming and their insufficient skills to use the new technologies. Increased public investments to extend “last-mile infrastructure” in digital services are necessary but not sufficient. Complementary investments in developing rural infrastructure, appropriate ICT business models and services, and improvement of the digital literacy of smallholders are also essential.     

THE COST OF INCOME REDISTRIBUTION IN AUSTRALIA

This paper analyses the effect of raising effective marginal tax rates on the income of the representative household in each gross income decile in Australia by one percentage point, and distributing the proceeds of the tax increase either in the form of an equal grant, or as an equal payment to members of households in the lower half of the income distribution. The effectiveness of the program in redistributing income is measured as the ratio of total gains in disposable income to households in target deciles to losses in non-target groups, or as the proportional reduction in the poverty gap. The cost is measured as the ratio of the sum of the income-equivalent of changes in the welfare of non-target groups to those of target groups, or as the ratio of income-equivalent losses to gains.     

The (evolving) role of agriculture in poverty reduction—An empirical perspective

The role of agriculture in development remains much debated. This paper takes an empirical perspective and focuses on poverty, as opposed to growth alone. The contribution of a sector to poverty reduction is shown to depend on its own growth performance, its indirect impact on growth in other sectors, the extent to which poor people participate in the sector, and the size of the sector in the overall economy. Bringing together these different effects using cross-country econometric evidence indicates that agriculture is significantly more effective in reducing poverty among the poorest of the poor (as reflected in the $1-day squared poverty gap). It is also up to 3.2 times better at reducing $1-day headcount poverty in low-income and resource rich countries (including those in Sub-Saharan Africa), at least when societies are not fundamentally unequal. However, when it comes to the better off poor (reflected in the $2-day measure), non-agriculture has the edge. These results are driven by the much larger participation of poorer households in growth from agriculture and the lower poverty reducing effect of non-agriculture in the presence of extractive industries.     

How Significant Is Sub‐Saharan Africa's Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction?

Sub‐Saharan Africa will be undergoing substantial demographic changes over the next 15 years with the rising working‐age share of its population. The opportunity of African countries to convert these changes into demographic dividends for growth and poverty reduction will depend on several factors. The outlook will likely be good if African countries can continue the gains already made under better institutions and policies, particularly those affecting the productivity of labor, such as educational outcomes. If African countries can continue to build on the hard‐won development gains, the demographic dividend could account for 11–15% of gross domestic product (GDP) volume growth by 2030, while accounting for 40–60 million fewer poor in 2030. The gains can become more substantial with better educational outcomes that allow African countries to catch up to other developing countries. If the skill share of Africa's labor supply doubles because of improvements in educational attainment, from 25 to about 50% between 2011 and 2030, then the demographic dividends can expand the regional economy additionally by 22% by 2030 relative to the base case and reduce poverty by an additional 51 million people.     

THE COST OF INCOME REDISTRIBUTION IN AUSTRALIA*

This paper analyses the effect of raising effective marginal tax rates on the income of the representative household in each gross income decile in Australia by one percentage point, and distributing the proceeds of the tax increase either in the form of an equal per capita grant, or as an equal payment to members of households in the lower half of the income distribution. The effectiveness of the program in redistributing income is measured as the ratio of total gains in disposable income to households in target deciles to losses in non-target groups, or as the proportional reduction in the poverty gap. The cost is measured as the ratio of the sum of the income-equivalent of changes in the welfare of non-target groups to those of target groups, or as the ratio of income-equivalent losses to gains.     

A new fuzzy unidimensional poverty index from an information theory perspective

This article proposes to use an information theory approach to design a fuzzy unidimensional poverty index. In order to avoid the usual binary definition of poverty, a fuzzy set approach has been used. The total population is partitioned into three mutually exclusive groups around the poverty line. This builds on fuzzy set theory whereby the definition of the threshold of who is poor or non-poor is fuzzy. This article proposes a method using a membership function and a confidence interval of poverty line to identify to what extent households can be considered as poor or non-poor. According to this membership function, a relative entropy measure is adopted to assess an aggregation method of fuzzy individual poverty. An application using individual well-being data from Tunisian households is presented.     

Self-rated economic welfare in Russia

Most of those Russian adults who feel that they are poor are not classified as such in the poverty statistics, and most of those who are classified as poor don't feel that way. We study the determinants of peoples’ perceptions of their economic welfare in an unusually rich socioeconomic survey. While income is a highly significant predictor, subjective economic welfare is influenced by many other factors including health, education, employment, assets, relative income in the area of residence and expectations about future welfare. Insights are obtained into how objective data should be weighted in assessing economic welfare.     

On negative time preferences

Survey data show that subjects positively discount both gains and losses but discount gains more heavily than losses. This holds for monetary and non-monetary outcomes. These results do not confirm the findings of two earlier studies about negative time preferences for non-monetary outcomes.     

China's (uneven) progress against poverty

While the incidence of extreme poverty fell dramatically in China over 1980–2001, progress was uneven over time and across provinces. Rural areas accounted for the bulk of the gains to the poor, though migration to urban areas helped. Rural economic growth was far more important to national poverty reduction than urban economic growth; agriculture played a far more important role than the secondary or tertiary sources of GDP. Taxation of farmers and inflation hurt the poor; local government spending helped them in absolute terms; external trade had little short-term impact. Provinces starting with relatively high inequality saw slower progress against poverty, due both to lower growth and a lower growth elasticity of poverty reduction.     

Testing Prediction Performance of Poverty Models: Empirical Evidence from Uganda

This paper examines the performance of a method of predicting poverty rates. Because most developing countries cannot justify the expense of frequent household budget surveys, additional low‐cost methods have been developed and used. The prediction method is based on a model linking the proportion of poor households to suitable explanatory variables (consumption proxies). These consumption proxies are variables that can be collected at much lower cost through smaller annual surveys. Several applications have shown that such models can produce poverty estimates with confidence intervals of a similar magnitude to the poverty estimates from the household budget surveys. There is, however, limited evidence of how well the methods perform out‐of‐sample. A series of seven household budget surveys conducted in Uganda in the period 1993–2005 allows us to test the prediction performance of the model. We test the poverty models by using data from one survey to predict the proportion of poor households in other surveys, and vice versa. The results are encouraging, as all models predict similar poverty trends. Although in most cases the predictions are precise, sometimes they differ significantly from the poverty level estimated from the survey directly.     

Poverty alleviation through geographic targeting: How much does disaggregation help?

In this paper, we employ recently completed “poverty maps” for three countries as tools for an ex ante evaluation of the distributional incidence of geographic targeting of public resources. We simulate the impact on poverty of transferring an exogenously given budget to geographically defined sub-groups of the population according to their relative poverty status. We find large gains from targeting smaller administrative units, such as districts or villages. However, these gains are still far from the poverty reduction that would be possible had the planners had access to information on household level income or consumption. Our results indicate that a useful way forward might be to combine fine geographic targeting using a poverty map with within-community targeting mechanisms.     

SEQUENTIAL STOCHASTIC DOMINANCE AND THE ROBUSTNESS OF POVERTY ORDERINGS

When comparing poverty across distributions, an analyst must select a poverty line to identify the poor, an equivalence scale to compare individuals from households of different compositions and sizes, and a poverty index to aggregate individual deprivation into an index of total poverty. A different choice of poverty line, poverty index or equivalence scale can of course reverse an initial poverty ordering. This paper develops easily-checked sequential stochastic dominance conditions that throw light on the robustness of poverty comparisons to these important measurement issues. These general conditions extend well-known results to any order of dominance, to the choice of individual versus family based aggregation, and to the estimation of "critical sets" of measurement assumptions. Our theoretical results are briefly illustrated using data for four countries drawn from the Luxembourg Income Study databases.     

Land rental markets and rural poverty dynamics in Northern Ethiopia: Panel data evidence using survival models

There is growing interest in understanding the links between land reforms, land markets, and poverty reduction in Africa. The study uses four‐wave panel data from the northern highlands of Ethiopia to assess the dynamics of rural poverty taking into account the status of participation of rural households in the land rental market. Applying both nonparametric (Kaplan–Meier estimator) and semi‐parametric survival models that control for duration dependence of poverty transition, results show participation and degree of participation on the supply side of the tenancy market (landlords) have highly significant and positive effect on the chances of escaping poverty while the same cannot be said about the demand side of the tenancy market (tenants). The empirical evidence also confirms that households headed by older and literate people have relatively larger exit rates from poverty as compared with households headed by younger and illiterate ones. Though transacting farmers may engage themselves in win–win rental arrangements by the time they join the tenancy market, results indicate that gains are unequal as those tenants who enter the markets from low economic leverage (were poor) are liable to face a lower margin of net gains, which may limit their ability to move out of poverty.     

QUANTIFYING ABSOLUTE POVERTY IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD

We estimate that in 1985 about one in five persons in the developing world lived in poverty, judged by the standards of the poorest countries. This rises to one in three at a common, more generous, poverty line. The aggregate consumption short-fall of the poorest fifth is about one half of one percent of world consumption, while that of the poorest third is a further one percent. The shape of the distribution of consumption suggests that aggregate poverty would fall fairly rapidly if moderate growth in average consumption levels can be sustained, and the poor share at least proportionally in that growth. However, it would take only small adverse shifts in the world distribution of consumption to eliminate the gains to the poor from growth.     

INTEREST,DISTRIBUTION OF VALUE ADDED AND INFLATION: INFLATION-INDUCED DIFFICULTIES IN THE INTERPRETATION OF DUTCH NATIONAL ACCOUNTS*

The present paper examines the inflationary bias of sectoral income transactions in national accounting data. An inconsistency of these data is pointed out. Alternative income measures are estimated by adjusting the standard national accounting data for inflationary gains and losses. These gains and losses arise from financing by loan capital. Several issues concerning income concepts and alternative methods for the measurement of inflationary gains and losses are discussed. It is concluded that an adjustment of sectoral income data for these gains and losses produces a very different picture of the sectoral distribution of income.     

IS ECONOMIC GROWTH IN COTE D'IVOIRE PRO‐POOR? EVIDENCE FROM LSMS DATA: A NOTE

This paper analyses the impact of the economic growth in Cote d'Ivoire on the poor people. We use household data from two LSMS (1992 and 2002) led by the National Statistical Office of Côte d'Ivoire. We show that the situation in this country is characterized by a trickle‐down growth: the poverty growth curve and the growth incidence curve computed show that growth reduces poverty but the poor people receive proportionally fewer benefits than the non‐poor.     

Is increased agricultural protection beneficial for South Africa?

Using a top down computable general equilibrium microsimulation model of South Africa, this paper explores the impact on household well being of an increase in agricultural protection. This issue is of broader relevance to developing countries that may be contemplating the use of World Trade Organisation permissible trade barriers so as to achieve a domestic policy objective. The model predicts that gross domestic product would be unaffected while real private consumption falls. The real exchange rate appreciates while unemployment levels are unaffected. Food, other manufactures, trade and hotels are the clear losers. All other industries experience small positive gains or no impact on their output. The impact on households depends on their factor endowments and their consumption patterns. The impacts on poverty reduction are very small. Poverty indicators increase more in urban areas than in rural areas. Poverty increases slightly more among Asian households, followed by White and then Coloured households. African households experience small declines in poverty.