私募股权投资的战略选择

随着全球次级债危机日渐严重和中国经济持续高速增长,中国作为新兴经济体所孕育的私募股权投资市场,对于全球资本正显示出越来越大的吸引力。私募基金在我国并不是新鲜事物,但由于诸多不规范操作,一直行走在灰色地带。私募基金的特性决定其具有很大发展空间,但也存在很大风险,积极探索私募股权市场的构建模式,有利于经济持续健康发展。     

The relationship between developed equity markets and the Pacific Basin's emerging equity markets

Using a trivariate vector autoregression (VAR) model with a proper control for heteroscedasticity, this paper investigates the relationships between the two largest equity markets in the world—the U.S. and Japan—and the four Asian emerging equity markets: Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. Evidence indicates that the links between the developed markets and the Asian emerging markets (AEMs) began to increase after the stock market crash in October 1987, and have significantly intensified since the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis in July 1997.     

Financial Integration in Emerging Asia: Challenges and Prospects

Using both quantity‐ and price‐based measures of financial integration, the paper shows an increasing degree of financial openness and integration in emerging Asia. Assessing the impact of a regional shock relative to a global shock on local equity and bond markets, the findings suggest that the region's equity markets are integrated more globally than regionally, although the degrees of both regional and global integration have increased significantly since the 1997/1998 Asian financial crisis. However, emerging Asia's local currency bond markets remain generally segmented, being neither regionally nor globally integrated. There are potential benefits from increased regional integration of financial markets. Financial integration at the regional level allows for the region's economies to benefit from allocation efficiency and risk diversification. Policymakers in the region must strike the right balance between maximizing the net benefits from regional and global financial openness, and minimizing the potential costs of financial contagion and crisis.     

Debt markets and corporate debt structure in an emerging market: The South African example

This is a first attempt at gauging the effects of corporate public debt issuance on the debt structure, risk profile and valuation of firms in an emerging market. We find that financial services firms, along with government institutions, are important early supporters of an organized public debt market. Firms in this market use equity, public debt and private debt funds simultaneously as need be. Consistent with predictions of the corporate debt structure literature, public debt-issuing firms are larger, older, more profitable, and less informational opaque than non-public debt-issuing firms. Moreover, public debt-issuing firms experience significant reductions in both overall and systematic risks, and incur lower cost of capital following issuance than non-public debt issuers. These and other findings of the study suggest deepening national debt markets can be a fruitful financial market development exercise for emerging markets.     

Financial cycles in asset markets and regions

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of financial cycles in asset markets and regions. Using a large sample of 38 advanced and emerging economies to enable a comparative assessment, the analysis conforms with the prevailing literature pertaining to the characterization of financial cycles in advanced economies, but finds that equity market cycles in emerging market economies (EMEs) in Asia, Latin America, and Eastern Europe may be a more useful gauge of the financial cycle compared to cycles in credit and property markets. Similar to more advanced economies, it is found that financial and business cycles in emerging economies are synchronized, albeit partially and with some cross-country heterogeneity. This underscores the importance for policy makers to be vigilant of interlinkages between real and financial sectors, pointing toward a need for carefully designed macroprudential policies. Finally, it is found that financial cycles in emerging markets remain vulnerable to global risk aversion in financial markets and spillovers from the US, thereby reinforcing the importance of continuing to strengthen domestic macroeconomic fundamentals, and develop further local financial sectors through targeted structural reforms.     

The Role of Foreign Capital in the Banking Sector of Korea and Its Implications for Developing Countries

The entry of foreign capital marked a significant change in the Korean banking sector. It played a critical role in transforming insolvent banks into profit-making banks. The acquisition of domestic banks by foreign private equity funds restructured the management by changing the corporate governance and pursuing result-oriented policies, while it had a negative impact on the national economy in general. Korea’s experience shows that the role of foreign private equity funds in the domestic banking sector needs to be evaluated from the perspective of both the performance of each bank and its effect on the national economy.     

When do Heuristics Matter in Global Capital Markets? The Case of the BRIC Acronym

ABSTRACT

Several recent publications have argued that the use of heuristics by financial investors can distort global capital flows, but scholars have paid little attention to the scope conditions that determine when heuristics become influential (and when they don’t). Building on work in economic sociology and behavioural finance we suggest that the degree to which investment heuristics can bias aggregate capital flows depends on the levels of uncertainty and self-referentiality that structure the environments under which investment decisions are being made. Applying these insights to the two principal global markets for corporate investment, we argue that the institutional structure of markets for short-term portfolio equity investments (PEI) is far more conducive to trigger the mimetic adoption of a specific heuristic than in markets for long-term foreign direct investments (FDI). To test this hypothesis, we leverage the high level of arbitrariness of the selection of Brazil, Russia, India and China into the BRIC acronym and empirically examine the impact of its remarkable rise to prominence among communities of financial investors in the mid-2000s on global capital flows to emerging economies. In line with the theoretical argument, we find robust evidence of a strong BRIC-bias in markets for PEI but not FDI.     

Managing Financial Integration and Capital Mobility—Policy Lessons from the Past Two Decades

Emerging market experience over the past two decades has revealed the tenuous links between external financial integration and faster growth, and the proclivity of such integration to fuel costly crises. Emerging markets learned, converging to the middle ground of the macroeconomic trilemma. Following their crises of 1997–2001, emerging markets added financial stability as a goal, self‐insured by building up international reserves, and adopted a public finance approach to financial integration. The global crisis of 2008–09 illustrated that the advanced economies “overshot” the optimal degree of financial deregulation, while the resilience of the emerging markets validated their public finance approach to financial integration.     

COVID-19, asset markets and capital flows

This paper empirically examines the reaction of global financial markets across 38 economies to the COVID-19 outbreak, with special focus on the dynamics of capital flows across 14 emerging market economies. The effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy responses to COVID-19 is also tested. Using daily data over the period January 4, 2010 to August 31, 2020, and controlling for a host of domestic and global macroeconomic and financial factors, we use a fixed effects panel approach and a structural VAR framework to show that emerging markets have been more heavily affected than advanced economies. In particular, emerging economies in Asia and Europe have experienced the sharpest impacts on stock, bond and exchange rates due to COVID-19, as well as abrupt and substantial capital outflows. Quantitative easing and fiscal stimulus packages mainly helped to boost stock prices, notably for advanced and emerging economies in Asia. Our findings also highlight the role that global factors and developments in the world's leading financial centers have on financial conditions in EMEs. Importantly, the impact of COVID-19 related quantitative easing measures by central banks in advanced countries extended to EMEs, with significant positive spillovers to EME stock markets in Asia, Europe and Latin America. Going forward, while the ultimate resolution of COVID-19 may be expected to lead to a market correction as uncertainty declines, our impulse response analysis suggests that there may be persistent effects on bond markets in emerging Europe and on EME capital flows.     

融资约束与企业出口行为:基于工业企业数据的经验研究

采用2000—2007年的3万多家工业企业数据,本文构造了包括内源融资、商业信贷以及企业信用特征等变量的企业融资约束综合指标。基于Heckman选择模型的经验研究表明,企业融资状况的改善不仅能提高企业出口的概率,而且对其出口规模也有重要影响。研究还发现融资状况改善对外资企业出口影响最显著;与国有企业相比,民营企业虽受到更严重的融资约束,但其出口表现并未更差。此外,融资状况改善对那些高外源融资依赖度行业的企业出口具有更明显的促进作用。     

对外开放和经济波动的关联性检验——中国和东亚新兴市场国家的案例

本文运用研究非对称性冲击问题的实证方法考察和比较了东亚4国(韩国、印尼、泰国和中国)在经济开放过程中内外金融资源的相对价格——实际利差的变化及由此引起的宏观经济(产出、货币和银行信贷)的波动特征。这一研究的政策意义在于通过区分外部因素的基本面(mean)变化和突发性的波动(volatility)对本国经济所产生的不同性质的溢出效应(spillover),为政府制定不同的针对性措施提供理论根据。通过引入非对称“时变波动”(asymmetrictimevaryingvolatility)特征的二元EGARCHVAR实证模型,论文得到了三个主要结论第一,虽然为维持名义汇率的稳定,各国政府都积极地干预外汇市场,由此影响了当期内外利差的收敛,但包括中国在内的4个国家金融的实际开放程度都在不断加大。第二,除上世纪90年代国际资本移动的鼎盛阶段外,各国的经济波动并不是由外部冲击直接带来的,而是国内经济的不确定因素导致的。第三,比较各国经济波动特征,可以发现汇率制度、金融市场的开放程度以及资本市场的发展状况对经济波动有很大的影响。     

国际对冲基金的中国资产配置研究

"热钱"进入的状况和影响目前正在受到国内各界的广泛关注。文章借用以指数收益推算要素敞口的方法,研究了"热钱"的典型代表———国际对冲基金在中国金融市场上的投资活动和资产分布。从全球对冲基金行业来看,尚不存在大规模投资于中国大陆市场的迹象。全球对冲基金业绩仅与中国股票市场存在较微弱的正相关关系。就大中华区而言,大陆股票、香港股票和台湾股票市场是这一地区对冲基金的主要活动场所。没有发现对冲基金在行业意义上进入中国债券、期货和房地产市场的证据。文章还分析了国际对冲基金进入中国的主要渠道和目前国内对对冲基金的监管现状,并提出有关政策建议。     

Changes in Development Finance in Asia: Trends,Challenges, and Policy Implications

There have been shifts in the composition and nature of development finance in Asia, such as the mainstreaming of private sources of finance and the emergence of domestic resources potentially available for development purposes. In parallel, new trends and challenges are identified in such areas as the transformation of development aid, public–private partnerships, and green finance. A common challenge is how to strengthen financial intermediaries for longer term sustainable financing from domestic and external sources for investment serving development purposes. To address this, policymakers should bear in mind policy coherence and consistency from macro, sector, and micro perspectives. For various financial resources to bring about tangible benefits, policymakers should take account of complementarities and synergies among the full range of available financial resources. The effective utilization of private sources of finance depends on commercial viability. The key to success is incentive design and risk mitigation measures.     

Are Islamic stock markets efficient? A time-series analysis

This article investigates the weak-form informational efficient hypothesis for three major Islamic stock markets (world, emerging and developed). Unlike previous studies, we applied different parametric and nonparametric tests to investigate efficiency in the short and long horizons. Using recent data over the period May 2002–June 2012, we developed a time-series analysis of Islamic stock price dynamics in the context of the recent global financial crisis (2008–2009). Our analysis offers two interesting results. First, emerging Islamic stock markets seem to be less efficient than developed Islamic markets, suggesting interesting investment opportunities and diversification benefits from this region in both the short run and the long run. Second, nonrejection of the cointegration hypothesis for developed Islamic markets and the global conventional stock market point to efficiency for the former in the long term, even if it is inefficient in the short term. This finding has at least two economic and political implications: (i) investors who seek moderate risk would do well to opt for Islamic funds in developed countries, particularly as they share the same tendency and provide similar expected returns in the long term as conventional funds, (ii) Islamic financial systems can offer a useful model that can help to reform and remodel conventional financial institutions.     

ARE JAPANESE INVESTORS TAKING THEIR MONEY HOME?

Only recently has Japan become the world's largest investor. Yet stories of investors taking their money home already have developed. Are Japanese investors taking their money home? Would it matter? To answer these questions, one must examine the economic, regulatory, and political motivations guiding Japanese investments. So far, shifts in the flows of funds have not been sensational, but by no means should one dismiss the shifts as irrelevant. A tightening of liquidity at home and a pricking of the bubble's in Japan's equity and land markets have altered the calculus of returns on overseas investments. Tims, the annual increments to Japan's overseas holdings, which already had shrunk in 1990, should stay low in the coming years. Tlie impact on global financial markets will depend crucially on whether new flows from Japan fall faster than new demands for funds outside of Japan.     

Co-movement and spillovers: empirical evidence from BRIC equity markets

A higher degree of co-movement and spillover effects among different asset classes undermine portfolio diversification benefits. In this regard, the present study attempts to capture dynamic co-movement and return-volatility spillover effects among the most promising emerging equity markets, i.e. Brazil, Russia, India and China in a multivariate framework by employing VAR-ABEKK and VAR-DCC-AGARCH (1,1) models. To further comprehend the behaviour of the correlation coefficients during the global financial crisis period (2007–2009), heat map and Markov regime switching model (two regimes with a switch at ‘mean’ level only) have been used. The results report that the BRIC equity markets do not share a common stochastic trend in the long run. There is strong evidence of market shocks to volatility, volatility to volatility and negative shocks to volatility spillover effects among the BRIC markets. Overall, the BRIC markets are partially integrated with each other, thereby making them stronger investment candidates.     

The Impact of a Disorderly Resolution of Global Imbalances on Global Wealth

Partly reflecting structural advantages such as liquidity and strong investor protection, foreigners have built up extremely large positions in US (as well as other dollar‐denominated) financial assets. This paper describes the impact on global wealth of an unanticipated shock to US financial markets. For every 10 per cent decline in the dollar, US equity markets, and US bond markets, total wealth losses to foreigners could amount to about 5 percentage points of foreign GDP. Four stylized facts emerge: (i) foreign countries, particularly emerging markets, are more exposed to US bonds than to US equities; (ii) over time US exposure has increased for most countries; (iii) on average, US asset holdings of developed countries and emerging markets (scaled by GDP) are very similar; and (iv) based on their reserves position alone, wealth losses of emerging market governments could on average amount to about 2¾ percentage points of their GDP.     

Financing investment in environmentally sound technologies: Foreign direct investment versus foreign debt finance

This paper develops a screening model to examine the relationship between alternative sources of private capital and investment in environmentally sound technologies (ESTs). In the model, a polluter (agent) must secure investment funds from the international financial markets in order to upgrade its production and abatement technology. The requisite capital can be obtained via either market loans (debt finance) or foreign direct investment (FDI). Under debt finance, the foreign financier supplies only capital and the relationship between the two parties is more ‘arms-length’. By contrast, under FDI, the investor delivers both capital and managerial skills. We use the model to derive the implications of debt finance for optimal investment decisions and compare them to those obtained under FDI. Investment incentives are more pronounced under debt finance.     

Can foreign equity funds outperform their benchmarks? New evidence from fund-holding data for China

We investigate whether foreign institutional investors can outperform domestic benchmarks. Using portfolio holding-based approaches for the Chinese Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFIIs), we identify fund’s active manager opinions and information on the future value of stocks. We find stocks actively traded by QFIIs, and stocks with higher deviation from benchmarks (DFB) outperform their benchmarks in the subsequent one to three quarters. Such “hot hand” phenomenon is driven by foreign institutions’ investment skill in incorporating stale information rather than fresh information into asset pricing. Our findings shed new light on the roles of foreign equity funds in eliminating mispricing in emerging markets, and provide evidence on rethinking the role of financial intermediation in a capital-controlled economy.     

International cross-listing and stock market development in emerging economies

Why have emerging equity markets grown so rapidly since 1990? First, it is shown how international cross-listings can transform a segmented local equity market from an equilibrium of low liquidity and market capitalization to an integrated market with high liquidity and market capitalization by altering the incentives of companies and individuals to participate in the market. Second, benefits of international cross-listings for domestic stock market development and welfare across emerging equity markets are found to be negatively related to both the degree of correlation between the domestic and world equity market and the relative size of the domestic equity market. Third, the price impact of international listing is shown to depend on the liquidity conditions in the domestic market prior to listing.