我国区域旅游竞争力分布格局

文章应用区域旅游竞争力数字化评价体系,采用近年来国家和地区实际统计数据,提出我国区域旅游竞争力分布格局,并给出了合理性说明.结果表明:我国31个省(市)区域旅游竞争力差距显著,等级明显,分布格局清晰;全国可分为五个集团、三大层次,各集团和层次旅游竞争力水平明显呈梯型分布;三大层次中各层次所包含的省(市)数目与在全国竞争力中所占的份量明显不成比例,第一层次优势明显突出;中间层次为旅游经济发展中地区.成员庞大但落后较为明显,是决定我国旅游竞争力整体发展水平的关键,也是今后应重点剖析和研究的对栽象.     

我国旅游产业区域竞争力差异统计研究--基于层次判断矩阵的实证分析

区域旅游竞争力评价有利于发现旅游资源的区域优势与劣势,有利于旅游竞争力的提升。选取西北5省区为研究对象,建立区域旅游业竞争力评价体系,对各影响因素指标对综合竞争力的影响大小,即对权重的大小进行定量测量。根据判定矩阵的方式对指标体系中各指标权重进行计算,结合权重值及指标数值综合得到甘肃省及其他4省区的竞争力指标值,并根据各项分值的高低进行相应的分析,对比了西北5省区旅游产业竞争力差异并提出政策建议。     

我国各省区农副食品加工业综合竞争力比较分析

作为关乎国计民生的重要产业,我国的农副食品加工业近年来不断发展,但是各省区的发展水平存在显著差异.通过构建综合竞争力评价指标体系,对我国31个省区农副食品加工业的综合竞争力评价和比较分析,运用SPSS软件选取出影响竞争优势的四个主要因素--产业集群、企业经营、需求条件和效益,分析各省区农副食品加工业综合竞争力差距的原因.     

基于AHP的都江堰市城市旅游竞争力比较研究

文章运用层次分析法(AHP)构建以城市旅游发展规模、城市旅游竞争潜力、城市旅游环境支持力等三个方面的评价因子以及相应的22个状态变量来表述城市旅游竞争力综合评价系统,以四川省5个热点旅游城市作为比较分析对象,对都江堰市城市旅游竞争力进行诊断分析,以把握都江堰市城市旅游发展存在的薄弱环节,为提高都江堰市城市旅游竞争力的实践提供决策参考。     

我国区域科技人才竞争力评价研究

从人才投入、环境建设和成果产出3个方面选取18个指标,构建了我国区域科技人才竞争力评价指标体系。利用因子分析法提取资源投入、智力成果、经济环境和生态环境4个公共因子,对我国区域科技人才竞争力进行综合评价,并结合聚类分析法对各省区科技人才竞争力状况进行了综合分析。     

基于PCR的区域旅游国际竞争力影响因素

利用主成分回归方法(PCR),对区域旅游国际竞争力的影响因素进行了定量研究。区域旅游国际竞争力的影响因素分为8个定量因素和1个定性因素。以中国31个省级区域的横截面数据为样本,利用主成分回归分析方法得到了各个影响因素的相对贡献率。得出结论:①区域旅游竞争力受到区域旅游产业因素、区域环境因素和区域与客源地的联系因素三方面的共同影响;②区位条件对于区域旅游竞争力具有显著影响;③当前影响我国各区域旅游国际竞争力的五个最重要的因素是可进入性、旅游企业竞争能力、旅游资源、经济环境、基础设施。     

我国城市旅游竞争力提升及发展战略选择

同世界旅游产业相比 ,从加入WTO后要求来看 ,我国城市旅游竞争力还存在较大差距。必须从“硬”、“软”环境入手提升竞争力 ,而“软”环境又是重中之重。提升竞争力又必须正确选择城市发展战略。     

中国省级区域国际旅游竞争力决定因素分析

基于理论分析提出了影响我国省级区域旅游目的地国际旅游竞争力的8个决定因素,即旅游资源、旅游资本、旅游业劳动力、政府作用、企业能力、旅游产业结构、基础设施和区位条件。以我国31个省(区)为样本,利用基于面板数据的多元线性回归分析方法,从实证角度定量研究了上述8个决定因素对省级区域国际旅游竞争力影响的显著性及其相对重要性。回归结果显示:我国各省(区)国际旅游竞争力来源的98.5%能够由8个决定因素解释;除旅游产业结构外,其他决定因素对各省级区域国际旅游竞争力的影响均在0.01的水平上显著。     

基于TDI城市类世界知名旅游目的地旅游综合竞争力比较研究

建设世界知名旅游目的地已成为推动文旅高质量发展、增加目的地国际旅游收入、提升旅游产品服务质量、改善旅游基础设施的战略选择。借鉴世界经济论坛倡导的用于衡量世界经济体旅游竞争力的指标体系，构建城市类世界知名旅游目的地旅游发展指数评价体系，运用极差标准化、变异系数、旅游发展指数评价等方法，分析北京、上海、中国香港、新加坡等15个城市类旅游目的地的旅游综合竞争力水平，研究发现：(1)旅游目的地旅游综合竞争力存在异质性。北京、上海、成都、天津、杭州5个城市的旅游综合竞争力已超过中国香港和新加坡，西安、南京的旅游综合竞争力已接近中国香港和新加坡的水平，广州、深圳等城市的旅游综合竞争力与中国香港和新加坡存在较大差距。(2)我国打造世界知名旅游目的地的短板比较突出。     

区域旅游发展空间差异变化对经济发展平衡性的影响

文章收集近20年相关数据,利用基尼系数、重心模型、格兰杰因果关系检验等方法,考察旅游发展空间差异变化对经济发展平衡性的影响,结果发现:①近20年来旅游增长速度要高于经济增长速度,西部省区旅游总收入占GDP比重较高,且旅游增长速度远大于经济增长速度,东部省区旅游总收入占GDP比重较低,且旅游增长速度与经济增长速度相差较小。②31省区旅游发展的空间差异和经济发展的不平衡性整体呈减小趋势,尤其旅游发展的区域不平衡明显减小。旅游与经济发展的平衡性有一定的同步性,但在不同区域两者的同步性强弱不同。③旅游发展的空间差异变化会影响到区域经济发展的平衡性,近20年的数据表明,我国大陆31个省区、中部和西部地区,旅游发展的不平衡性与经济发展的不平衡性呈正相关关系,随着旅游发展区域差异的减小,31个省区、中部、西部的旅游发展促进了区域经济发展的平衡,但对东部地区区域经济发展的平衡性无显著影响。     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

The greenhouse effect: Damages,costs and abatement

The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO₂ in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO₂ eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO₂ emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO₂ saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.     

SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY: TRACING THE FLOW OF BASIC RESEARCH THROUGH MANUFACTURING AND TRADE

This paper describes flows of basic research through the US economy during the late 20th century. In addition, the paper studies the effect of the flows on scientific papers in industries and fields. This article differs from others in its use of measures of science rather than technology. Together, its results present a picture of the structure of basic research flows in a modern, science-intensive economy. Basic research flows are large within petrochemicals and drugs, and within software and communications. Flows of chemistry, physics, and engineering are common throughout all industries – biology and medicine are almost confined to petrochemicals and drugs; and computer science is nearly as restricted to software and communications. In general, basic research flows are more concentrated within scientific fields than within industries. Our findings concerning the production of scientific papers indicate that the effect of a 1% change in academic R&D spillovers significantly exceeds that of industrial spillovers. In addition, within-field effects exceed effects between-fields, while within- and between-industry effects are roughly equal. It follows that scientific fields limit basic research flows more than industries do, perhaps because large firms implicitly span a range of industries.     

Bayesian estimation of duration models: An application of the multiperiod probit model

The multiperiod probit model is presented and Bayesian estimation using the Gibbs sampler with data augmentation is described. As an empirical illustration, the multiperiod probit model is then used to estimate a duration model using employment duration data for the Canadian province of New Brunswick. Bayesian estimation with unobserved heterogeneity is shown to be a simple extension of estimation of a duration model with no unobserved heterogeneity. More importantly, perhaps, some numerical problems encountered by other authors using Maximum Likelihood are avoided.I would like to thank M. Baker, G. Koop, A. Melino and D. Poirier for helpful comments and discussions. I would also like to thank M. Baker for providing his data.     

Scenarios and creativity: Thinking in new boxes

To be creative and make change happen, leaders must do more than simply ‘think outside the box’, as the traditional business manuals suggest, using the popular American expression. After all, the space outside the box is infinitely expansive. Moreover, there can be no guarantee that a solution to the problem will be found. The answer: ‘Think in new boxes.’ This requires developing the right new box; in other words, useful new models, a helpful new approach to a problem. That is the real art of practical creativity. This short article outlines the approach (Thinking in New Boxes) and its application to classic scenario planning with a few examples. The authors also present the ‘Expressway to Scenarios’, an approach that wins in impact and practicality what it loses in deep analysis, by having top executives involved in key steps.     

On the Role of Paradigms in Understanding Economic Globalization

Any adequate analysis of economic globalization necessarily requires fundamental understanding of the worldviews underlying the views expressed with respect to the nature and role of economic globalization. This paper is based on the premise that any worldview can be associated with one of the four basic paradigms: functionalist, interpretive, radical humanist, and radical structuralist. It argues that any view expressed with respect to economic globalization is based on one of the four paradigms or worldviews. It, therefore, discusses four views with respect to the nature and role of economic globalization which correspond to the four broad worldviews. The paper emphasizes that the four views expressed are equally scientific and informative; they look at the nature and role of economic globalization from a certain paradigmatic viewpoint. Emphasizing this example in the area of economic globalization, the paper concludes that there are opportunities for each paradigm to benefit from contributions coming from the other three paradigms.