基于双重属性的住宅价格异常波动界定研究

文章聚焦城市住宅价格的波动幅度、波动周期和波动方式等方面,从住宅价格波动现象自身来研究其透露的信息。通过住宅房地产市场的实体经济属性和虚拟经济属性,进而把握住宅房地产市场的真实状况,并通过确定住宅价格的正常波动区间,来对住宅价格波动过程中出现的异常波动点进行界定,从而对趋势的判断和调控的时点把握提供参考。     

经济基本面对房地产价格波动的影响——对厦门的实证分析

房地产业是我国国民经济的支柱产业,是与人民的生活息息相关,拉动国民经济增长,改善居民生活条件的重要产业。本文在借鉴国内外研究成果的基础上,结合厦门市近年来的宏观经济基本面和房地产价格波动的实际情况,研究了国内生产总值、城镇人口数、居民收入以及价格指数对厦门市房地产价格的影响。在定性分析的基础上,对各变量与房地产价格进行多重共线性分析及格兰杰因果检验,科学的解释了经济基本面对房地产价格波动的影响。     

经济基本面对房地产价格波动的影响——对厦门的实证分析

房地产业是我国国民经济的支柱产业,是与人民的生活息息相关,拉动国民经济增长,改善居民生活条件的重要产业.本文在借鉴国内外研究成果的基础上,结合厦门市近年来的宏观经济基本面和房地产价格波动的实际情况,研究了国内生产总值、城镇人口数、居民收入以及价格指数对厦门市房地产价格的影响.在定性分析的基础上,对各变量与房地产价格进行多重共线性分析及格兰杰因果检验,科学的解释了经济基本面对房地产价格波动的影响.     

经济基本面、住宅价格与居民住房支付能力——以区域差异为视角的面板数据模型估计

本文在构建住宅价格、经济基本面与住房支付能力关系模型的基础上,以区域差异、收入差异为视角,利用2000-2006年我国29省市的数据检验住宅价格、经济基本面对住房支付能力的影响效应.研究结果表明,住宅价格、经济基本面对居民住房支付能力的影响存在明显的区域差异.住宅价格在西部地区的影响低于东、中部,收入和食品消费支出在东部地区的影响高于中、西部.住房贷款利率和居住消费支出在中、西部的影响高于东部地区.医疗消费支出在中部地区的影响不显著,教育消费支出在中部地区的影响明显大于东、西部.政府应该根据各地区居民住房支付能力的差异、影响因素的不同制定政策,提高居民住房支付能力.     

货币冲击的动态效果

基于一个发展了的允许货币冲击存在短期真实效应的货币数量论框架,以及以此为基础的结构性向量自回归模型(SVAR)来考察货币冲击对我国一般价格水平和实际产出的动态效果的理论和经验分析结果表明,货币冲击在长期内是中性的,但对短期产出水平具有真实效应。不过,与实际冲击的作用比较起来,货币冲击对于解释我国实际变量的波动并不重要;然而,货币冲击能够解释一般价格水平变化的实质性部分。数量历史分析还显示,货币冲击能够很好地解释我国一般价格水平变化的时间轨迹以及历史上发生的通货膨胀和通货紧缩。     

政府干预、土地供应与价格扭曲

在城市住宅市场和土地市场快速发育的过程中,政府干预对住宅土地价格的影响备受关注.本研究检验了政府干预对城市住宅土地出让价格的影响,研究的中心假设是政府干预可能是一个捆绑束缚,它将导致住宅土地的价格扭曲.利用1999年至2005年杭州市出让的146宗住宅土地数据对假设进行了检验,实证结果表明,容积率增加1%,将会导致出让单位价格增加0.611%;出让地块面积增加1%,将会引起出让单位价格下降0.138%.因此,政府干预对住宅土地市场上的出让价格影响显著.     

基于GWR和sDNA模型的广州市路网形态对住宅价格影响的时空分析

基于地理加权回归(GWR)和扩展空间句法(s DNA)对传统的特征价格模型进行改进,进而提出基于路网的局部特征价格模型(NLHM),并对2014—2015年广州市路网形态对住宅价格的影响进行时空分析。研究发现:(1)不考虑路网变量影响时,地铁、物业管理费、是否精装修等变量对住宅价格的正向作用显著。(2)广州市中心城区主要位于接近度和穿行度的前景网络核心,城市郊区主要位于接近度和穿行度背景网络。(3)接近度与住宅价格呈正相关关系,穿行度与住宅价格呈负相关关系,接近度对住宅价格的影响大于穿行度对住宅价格的影响,二者对住宅价格的影响都随着计算半径的增加而减弱。(4)接近度系数空间格局具有跨尺度相似的特征,呈现出"郊区高,中心区低"的空间格局。穿行度系数空间格局具有出跨尺度变异的特征,中心城区在局部尺度上体现为穿行度系数绝对值的高值区,而在混合尺度和全局尺度上体现为低值区。(5)地铁变量系数随路网形态变量计算尺度的增加而减小,物业管理费、车位配比、是否精装修等变量系数变异程度较小。     

中国土地供应管制对住宅价格波动的影响

结合中国实际修正传统的存量—流量模型,选取1999—2007年中国30省市的季度面板数据进行计量检验,分析土地供应管制与住宅价格波动的关系,并比较不同的土地供应管制强度下投机因素对房价影响的大小。研究表明:(1)中国的土地供应管制对住宅价格水平及波动都有显著影响;(2)土地供给管制环境的宽松与紧缩影响投机行为作用的大小,当土地供应管制加强时,投机因素对房价波动的影响更大;(3)2003年下半年以来我国"从严从紧"的紧缩供地政策,通过预期效应作用于投机行为,进而传导给住宅市场,对平抑房价政策目标的实现产生了一定的负面影响。     

政府公共资本品供给对住宅价格的影响效应研究——来自天津市内六区的调查证据

公共资本品规模与城市舒适度密不可分,它是改善城市交通、人文和生态环境的主要推动力,也是决定住宅价格的主要外部因素。本文利用特征价格模型和2006年天津市内六区的调查数据,分析了公共资本品规模对住宅价格的影响效应。实证结果表明,交通资本特征变量中,地铁对部分地区住宅价格有显著影响,而公共汽车线路对住宅价格的影响不显著;人文公共资本品变量和生态公共资本品变量对住宅价格影响较小,居民对人文特征、生态特征的意愿支付值较低;公共投资的社会溢出效应较低,居民的住宅需求仍以基本需求为主。     

关于住宅价格水平合理性的分析——以江苏为例

依托江苏各城市房地产信息上报系统与统计局的公开数据,对江苏住宅价格现状及其成因进行了深入分析,通过多种计量经济研究手段,从住宅价格与经济的协调性、住宅价格结构合理性及住宅价格增幅合理性三方面,论证了2005年江苏住宅价格的合理性,对当前江苏住宅价格认识中存在的部分误区进行了探讨,提出有针对性的政策建议。     

城市规模、资源配置与经济增长

目前,部分城市的房价等资源要素价格高涨,高成本城市化已启动,本文分析了我国城市规模与资源配置的"极化"与"分散化"并存的非平衡增长城市化模式,认为非平衡增长的城市化模式造成了房价等资源要素的高涨和经济的非平衡发展,并以柯布—道格拉斯函数为基础,利用全国287个地级市1999-2008年的面板数据,检验了城市规模、资源配置对经济增长的影响,并对东中西部不同地域和不同人口规模城市和经济增长的关系进行了分类检验和分析。实证结果显示:在城市规模与经济增长之间的相关关系上,中部和西部地区明显高于东部地区。400万以上人口规模的城市,其规模与经济增长的相关系数显著降低。检验结果表明,在我国城市化模式问题上,中西部地区还可以继续进行"集中导向"的城市化模式,而东部地区的城市化到了进行"分散与集中"并存模式的转型时期。在城市规模上,未来城市化可以有重点地扩大部分中小城市的规模,再造大城市,适当控制目前超大城市的规模。在资源配置上,引导、鼓励高校教育、重点项目等资源有重点地向中小城市流入,促进城市经济的协调发展,促进城市化模式从非平衡增长到平衡增长。     

房地产“限购令”的调控机制与政策反思*——基于单中心双环城市模型的分析

近年来中国城市住房价格快速上涨，政府推出房地产“限购令”，以期调整房地产市场，控制城市房价。本文构建了带“限购令”政策约束条件的单中心双环城市住房市场模型，利用数值模拟的方法，从理论上分析房地产“限购令”的政策效果和作用机制。结果显示，限购政策使大中小城市房价均有所下跌，中小城市房价的下降幅度大于大城市的幅度，城市的投机性住房需求越大，限购政策的效果越明显。本文认为“限购令”作为非市场调控手段，仅可作权宜之计而非长久之策，应充分考虑城市的异质性特征，对限购政策进行辨证选择。     

PROPERTY MARKET AND THE MACROECONOMY OF MAINLAND CHINA: A CROSS REGION STUDY

Abstract.  This paper studies the nexus between the property market and macroeconomy of China in 1998–2004, using panel data models covering 31 provinces and major cities. The estimates suggest three main conclusions. First, there seemed to be a two-way linkage between property prices and GDP growth. Second, bank credit expansion did not seem to play an 'accelerating' role in property price inflation, although the latter is found to have contributed to bank credit increases in recent years. Third, property price growth may have deviated from fundamentals in coastal areas, as evidenced by a negative relationship between housing and rental prices.     

Housing price,talent movement,and innovation output: Evidence from Chinese cities

How housing costs would influence the job‐housing choice of talent and associated city‐level innovation performance is a question of interest for urban development policies. Recently, considerable attention has been paid to the influence of rising housing prices on the attraction of talent and the associated innovation output in major Chinese cities. In this paper, we use the housing price data of 51 cities from the China Real Estate Index System database and the corresponding macro data of China City Statistical Yearbooks from 2005 to 2014 to analyze this focal research question. The empirical analysis shows that the increase in city housing prices generally correlates positively with city innovation outcome and talent attraction, suggesting no crowding‐out effect on the innovative performance of the city. However, the positive association between housing prices and innovation outcome and talent attraction has started to disappear in first‐tier cities in recent years, suggesting potential crowding‐out effect if the increasing housing prices transform to bubbles. This research thus provides considerable policy implications concerning the impacts of housing prices on talent movement and innovation output.     

贫富差距、供求弹性与房价*

近些年，中国的贫富差距和房价居高不下，但现有文献忽视供求弹性与贫富差距交互作用对房价的影响。据此，本文构建结合贫富差距和供求弹性的住房存量调整模型，使用中国2002—2012年7省份33个城市的UHS数据发现，收入和财富的基尼系数对房价有正影响；供求弹性对房价分别有负影响和正影响；收入和财富基尼系数与供求弹性交互项对房价分别有正影响和负影响。据此，为防止房价泡沫，各级政府一方面应缩小贫富差距，另一方面应增加土地和住房供给。     

土地财政制度对房地产价格的影响因素研究*

本文基于动态系统GMM模型，运用Stata软件和计量经济学方法，对2009—2015年中国15个大中城市房价水平的变化趋势进行研究。结果表明：（1）地方政府依靠土地财政和房地产维持地方财政，土地财政是导致房价上涨的根本原因。（2）在经济下行的背景下，地方政府和房企共同经营土地，地方政府试图通过做大土地财政拉动地方经济。（3）中央政府选择有利于中央政府效用水平增加的经济发展方式。所以中央政府、地方政府与房企会形成经济增长联盟共同推动房价上涨。（4）房企行为对土地财政导致的高房价具有放大效应，且作用效果在东部、中西部地区呈现明显的区域差异。本文的贡献是发现了房企行为与土地财政、房价上涨之间相互作用的逻辑关系，为找到缓解房地产价格上涨的措施提供了新的可能性。     

Are housing prices improving GDP or vice versa? A cross-regional study of China

This study applies the bootstrap panel Granger causality test to examine the relationship between housing prices (HPs) and GDP across provinces in China. Empirical results show that HPs Granger cause GDP in the eastern region and in most provinces of the central region. Rapid industrialization and urbanization in the eastern region and the low-cost advantages of the central region promote housing investment and significantly affect GDP. However, GDP has no influence on HPs in the eastern region due to insufficient land supply, housing speculation and HPs deviating from the economic fundamentals. HPs do not Granger cause GDP in the western region because it is less attractive for housing investment. Also, GDP Granger causes HPs in the central and western regions that the economy can influence HPs. These findings could help the government formulate reasonable regional policies for the development of the housing market and economic growth.     

China’s house price: Affected by economic fundamentals or real estate policy?

Many theory and empirical literature conclude that house price can reflect economic fundamentals in the long-term. However, by using China’s panel data of 35 main cities stretching from 1998 to 2007, we find that there is no stable relationship between house price and economic fundamentals. House price has deviated upward from the economic fundamentals since government started macro-control of the real estate market. We consider that the mechanism between the house price and economic fundamentals is distorted by China’s real estate policy, especially its land policy. Meanwhile the policy itself is an important factor in explaining the changes of China’s house price. Then we estimate the dynamic panel data model on house price and the variables which are controlled by real estate policy. The result shows: land supply has negative effects on house price; financial mortgages for real estate have positive effects on house price; and the area of housing sold and the area of vacant housing, which reflects the supply and demand of the housing market, has negative effects on house price. We also find some differences in house price influence factor between eastern and mid-western cities. Finally, we propose policy suggestions according to the empirical results.     

Capital Inflows and House Prices: Aggregate and Regional Evidence from China

Rising house prices in China have been of concern for investors and policymakers. Prices have risen substantially in the last decade, especially in large urban cities, and some economists have expressed concerns about the affordability of residential housing for young adults. This phenomenon becomes a major concern for policymakers, in terms of managing policies to balance the residential needs of individuals and the transition to a market economy. Theoretically, house prices ought to be linked to economic factors such as disposable income, availability of land to build and credit policy. However, it appears that traditional economic theories fail to appropriately explain house prices in China. We provide an explanation from the perspective of capital inflows into China. In terms of per capita remittances, China receives the highest inflow of foreign capital, and this may have a significant impact on risk adjusted returns in the Chinese market. To investigate this relationship, we use the vector error correction model to assess the impact of capital inflows on house prices. We find that capital inflows have a significant positive effect on house prices. The study makes important contributions to understanding the relationship between house prices and foreign remittances after controlling for other economic factors. China is a large economy. Because the impact of economic development in China has not been consistent across the country, we address the regional differences in the house price changes to capital inflows. Using regional data, we show that capital inflows have an asymmetric effect on the housing market across different provinces and cities of China. This has important implications for the development of economic policies in China that aim to provide fair access to residential housing for everyone. These findings are also relevant to investors in the housing market, whether investing for a personal residential home or as part of their diversified investment portfolio. It will also be informative to see how a reversal of capital inflows associated with tighter financing conditions in advanced countries will affect house prices in China.     

The housing market and excess monetary liquidity in China

This study investigated the performance of the housing market in China, determining that from a long-term perspective, an equilibrium relationship exists between housing prices and output. However, the housing market may not be efficient in the short run. Based on the correlation between housing returns and the economic growth rate, 3 distinct states can be discerned in the performance of the Chinese housing market. The first state is a bubble period, during which housing returns are excessively high and negatively correlated with the economic growth rate; the second state is a correction period, during which housing prices are corrected toward market fundamentals; and the third state is a calm market period, during which no substantial performance or trends manifest. This study determined that excess monetary liquidity significantly influenced the housing market states; however, no such effect was observed when the interest rate was adjusted. Thus, the findings implicate that if the People’s Bank of China intends to avoid losing control of the housing market, it should exercise monetary control to avoid excess liquidity in the housing market.