我国货币政策调控体系：一个新的分析框架

货币政策的本质是通过改变实体经济中（广义）货币供应量的大小来影响商品市场的价格和经济主体的行为。因此,货币政策体系的研究重点是讨论央行如何通过具体的货币政笨操作来影响实体经济中货币供应量的大小。本文从两类货币发行机构这个新的视角出发,重点讨论了我国基础货币发行的特点和历史沿革、广义货币的决定、同业市场、数量调控和价格调控、我国货币政策调控体系的缺陷及改革方向。     

内生货币供给与货币政策效应的理论分析和实证检验

货币供给的可控性是货币政策调控经济的基础。长期以来,经济理论界存在着货币供给内生性与外生性的争论,并在其理论基点上提出了不同的政策主张。自改革开放以来,我国经济历经通货膨胀和通货紧缩的波动,货币政策在熨平经济波动中起到了重要作用。然而,1997年我国经济陷入通货紧缩,货币当局扩张性的货币政策似乎并没有改变经济不景气的预期,货币政策效应不佳。本文从货币供给内生性的角度来探讨我国货币政策难以有效调控经济运行的原因,并在对我国宏观经济状况进行历史分析和实证检验的基础上得出结论。     

货币市场、利率与货币政策传导有效性

1998年以来,伴随着对货币政策有效性的争论,货币政策传导机制问题引起理论界广泛关注。从一些发达国家的情况看,通过货币市场和利率的作用实现货币政策目标,是货币政策传导机制中的一条基本渠道。近年来,我国货币政策传导中货币市场和利率已经开始发挥作用。但由于我国货币市场还待完善,利率尚没有真正实现市场化,在一定程度上限制了货币政策的有效性。随着我国宏观经济调控模式从直接调控向间接调控方式的转变,加快构造畅通有效的货币政策传导机制越来越迫切。通过发展货币市场、实现利率的市场化进一步提高货币政策传导有效性问题,成为当前经济研究的重要课题。     

论我国中央银行体制下的二阶式货币供应

对我国中央银行体制下的货币供应过程及其与市场货币供应量的关系问题的研究,对中央银行选择特定的货币政策工具,实现宏观金融调控目标具有重大的理论和实践意义。在我国中央银行体制下,由于中央银行和商业银行、专业银行(以下通称其为商业银行)在货币发行和货币供应过程中所处地位不同,从而形成了我国中央银行体制下的二阶式货币供应体系,即中央银行供应基础货币,商业银行供应市场货币。一、中央银行与基础货币供应中央银行作为我国掌管人民币发行和管理全国金融事业的机关,并不直接办理对工商企业和个人的货币信贷业务,而是执行发行银行、银行的银行和国家的银行的职能。这     

货币政策有效性与货币供给内生性的关系研究

在当前我国货币政策效果不甚理想、货币政策操作目标以调控货币量为主的前提下,研究我国货币政策的有效性与货币供给的内生性关系具重要理论和现实意义.笔者依据货币供给的一般模型,找出了影响我国货币供给特性的因素,认为中国货币供给具内生性,在货币供给内生性条件下,提高货币政策的有效性应从增加汇率弹性、增强货币政策和财政政策的协调力度、适时选择控制通货膨胀率作为货币政策锚等方面入手.     

国际收支对货币政策影响的实证分析

国际收支对一国货币政策操作的影响主要有两个方面：基础货币投放量和货币乘数。本文的实证研究表明从上世纪90年代中期以来我国国际收支对基础货币投放有显着的影响，而日．这种影响已经改变了基础货币投放的渠道。在更深层次上，这种影响也会延伸至货币政策效应即货币政策导致的经济运行状况，这一点取决于国际收支的构成，我国的实际情况是主要由资本顼目构成国际收支顺差，从而导致基础货币投放缺乏经济基础，最终使通货膨胀因素在我国得到潜在的累积。     

60年来我国货币供应机制变迁回顾及面临的问题

新中国成立60年来,我国经历了计划经济、有计划的商品经济及市场经济阶段,伴随经济体制的转变,货币供应机制也发生着变革。本文通过对货币供应机制变迁路径及对不同阶段货币供给效应分析认为:中央银行的货币政策调控经历了直接调控向间接调控的转型,货币供应机制由正向调控转为逆向调控;货币政策与汇率政策不协调,货币政策独立性受到挑战。因此,应加快汇率制度改革,使货币调控尽快回归主动地位。     

我国货币供应量内生性问题研究

一、问题的提出 我国的货币政策对经济发展起到了重要作用.但随着市场化进程的不断深入,货币供应量的控制变得日趋困难,基础货币与M1的相关系数、货币乘数与M1的相关系数变得不显著了,中央银行通过调控基础货币和货币乘数控制货币供应量的政策起不到预期的效果,出现了所谓的货币供应量内生性的问题.     

试论中央银行货币供给量的宏观调控

近年来,中央银行相继推出一系列扩张性的货币政策;连续多次降低存贷款利率;降低再贴现率;将金融机构备付金帐户并入法定存款准备金帐户,并下调存款准备金率;发行特种国债补充国有商业银行资本金,增强国有商业银行货币投入能力。今年,中央银行又决定取消对国有商业银行固定资产投资贷款的规模控制,实行资产负债比例管理和风险管理。这些措施说明中央银行放弃了对信贷规模直接的行政管理,转而实行对货币供给总量的间接的经济管理,即我国货币政策由直接的信用控制转变为间接的货币总量管理。中国人民银行作为货币政策的调控主体,是…     

中国货币需求函数的协整检验与误差校正模型

随着我国社会主义市场经济的确立，宏观经济政策在经济活动中的调控作用日益重要。而货币政策的有效与否，关键是确立货币总量这个中介目标，从而实现最终目标，而联系这个中介目标和最终目标的纽带是货币需求涵数，所以确立一个稳定、合理和可预测的货币需求函数对于货币当局实施有效的货币政策具有重要的意义。     

MONEY AGGREGATES MANAGEMENT: PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS IN CHINA'S ECONOMIC TRANSITION

This study discusses China's money supply management in its economic transition. Institutional analysis and empirical evidence suggest (i) the People's Bank of China is capable of conducting indirect monetary policy in the central banking system, (ii) integral financial reforms in the areas of legislation, management, regulation, supervision, governance, and structure are required to overcome difficulties of the monetary base control, (iii) the money multipliers are technically predictable. These results provide ways for the central bank to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy enforcement. ( JEL E51, E58, G21, P21)     

THE USE OF FLOW-OF-FUNDS ACCOUNTS IN MONETARY PLANNING IN YUGOSLAVIA

The increased role of monetary and other financial variables has required the introduction of a quantitative framework for monetary policy planning. This has been found in a planning procedure based on flow-of-funds accounts. The very comprehensive structure of these accounts is relied upon to provide to policy makers with quantitative indications as to policy goals and measures for their implementation, and at the same time, to ensure a consistent incorporation of monetary planning in general economic planning.
There are annual and monthly plans. Annual planning involves two stages. The first is projection of flow-of-funds accounts on the basis of appropriate relationships, historical trends, institutional changes, economic policy targets, etc. The final result of this stage of planning is a projection of the Monetary Sector transactions as residuals, including changes in money supply and in short-term credits as key projections. The second is decomposition of the Monetary Sector account into the Central Bank Sector and the Other Banks Sector, which makes possible a projection of measures for the implementation of projected changes in short-term credits and money supply.
Monthly planning has two objects: first, to check annual projections and, if necessary, to adjust them to actual developments; and second, to introduce seasonal components. Seasonal adjustment is made only for the Monetary Sector, its two subsectors, and credit policy measures. Monthly projections are made every month for three months in advance.     

后金融危机的货币供给过剩及其效应

本文针对我国货币政策的操作特征,使用阈值协整方法扩展现有的货币需求模型,度量后金融危机时期的货币供给过剩及其对通胀与经济增长的非线性调节效应,并进而设定广义脉冲响应函数揭示货币供给过剩对通胀与经济增长的冲击效应。主要结论为:2009年第三季度以后,我国货币供给过剩且过剩幅度快速增加,其中名义M1过剩12.56%,名义M2过剩11.31%。2009Q3—2010Q3我国处于货币供给过剩机制下,在该机制下,央行谨慎地实施从紧货币政策,从紧货币政策对通胀和经济增长的调节效应相对较强。货币供给过剩对通胀和经济增长的冲击在前2年为正值,在随后近3年为负值。这说明我国现阶段适度宽松货币政策的退出必须谨慎,退出速度不宜过快。     

Substitution Between Money and Near-Monies in Switzerland

This paper investigates the substitutability between money and near-money assets during the period 1976 to 1996 in Switzerland. Financial developments have made a variety of instruments available to store wealth and conduct economic transactions. These developments have generated a “near money” component in households’ and businesses’ portfolio balances. It is important to evaluate the effect of “near-money” on money demand and the effectiveness of monetary policy. Towards this goal, five monetary assets: currency and demand deposits at commercial banks, demand deposits with the postal system, deposits on transaction accounts with banks, savings deposits and time deposits are considered. We evaluate the degree of substitutability among these assets using the Morishima elasticity. Results show that various monetary assets substitute for one another. Consistent with a high degree of diversification, the Morishima elasticity is significantly larger when adjustment takes place in the price of a relatively broader monetary asset as compared with a narrower one. Targeting a broad monetary aggregate captures a variety of assets that contribute to liquidity and aggregate demand, enhancing the effectiveness of monetary policy. Nonetheless, high elasticity of substitution between monetary assets has made it increasingly difficult to target money demand via changes in the interest rate. As a result, in 1999 the Swiss National Bank abandoned monetary targeting in favor of an expected inflation target.

     

货币供给的内生性与货币政策的效率——兼评我国当前货币政策的有效性

货币内生性理论指出公众的货币需求会直接影响中央银行的货币供给。因此 ,公众通过调整货币需求可以对中央银行的货币政策效果产生不确定的影响。本文利用货币内生性理论来分析公众行为对中央银行为稳定物价水平而采取的政策效果的影响 ;并通过实证分析证实我国M2 的供给有较强的内生性 ;我国货币政策在治理通货膨胀和通货紧缩的效果上存在着不对称性 ,以此可重新认识我国当前通货政策的有效性。     

我国统一调控下货币政策内部传导区域效应非对称性分析

我国外汇资产迅速扩张,外汇占款取代再贷款成为我国中央银行基础货币投放的主渠道。经济开放程度高的发达区域不仅基础货币投放量远远超过其他区域,其区域货币乘数也高于其他区域,导致货币政策内部传导的区域效应非对称性。实证分析认为,我国基础货币变化对开放程度最高的东部发达区域货币供应量的影响最大,其次是经济不发达的中部区域,对开放程度低的西部不发达区域的影响最小。建议采取适度差别的区域货币政策,缓解区域货币供给的非均衡性,提高我国货币政策内部传导的整体效率。     

不稳定的货币流通速度必然导致货币量中介目标无效吗?

大量的文献研究表明,货币流通速度的稳定性是货币量作为货币政策中介目标的先决条件。近年来随着金融创新的发展,各个国家的货币流通速度都出现了较大的波动,因此,无论是理论界还是货币政策当局对货币量作为货币政策中介目标可能性的否定,在一定程度上都依据了货币流通速度的不稳定性。然而,基于伯杜和乔纳格的研究,本文研究表明:货币流通速度的不稳定并不必然意味着货币量作为货币政策中介目标是无效的,影响货币量作为货币政策中介目标的最主要因素是流通速度的可预测性以及货币当局对货币流通速度的预测能力;只要货币当局能够准确预测货币流通速度变化的方向和幅度,货币供给量就仍然可以作为货币政策的中介目标。本文的结论是,近期中国广义货币M 2的可预测性较好,因此,基于货币流通速度的不稳定性而否定货币量作为中介目标的可能性是不正确的。     

Financial market imperfections and monetary policy strategy

In a model with imperfect money, credit and reserve markets, we examine if an inflation-targeting central bank applying the funds rate operating procedure to indirectly control market interest rates also needs a monetary aggregate as policy instrument. We show that if private agents use information extracted from money and financial markets to form inflation expectations and if interest rate pass-through is incomplete, the central bank can use a narrow monetary aggregate and the discount interest rate as independent and complementary policy instruments to reinforce the credibility of its announcements and the role of inflation target as a nominal anchor for inflation expectations. This study shows how a monetary policy strategy combining inflation targeting and monetary targeting can be conceived to guarantee macroeconomic stability and the credibility of monetary policy. Friedman's k-percent money growth rule, which can generate dynamic instability, and two alternative stabilizing feedback monetary targeting rules are examined.     

我国企业投资对财政货币政策冲击反应的实证分析

本文运用结构向量自回归（SVAR）模型方法研究了我国企业投资对财政货币政策冲击的反应。通过采用1998年1月～2009年4月的月度数据实证研究表明：在经济周期的不同阶段,央行控制货币供给量的能力存在差异,导致货币政策执行效果不同。在经济繁荣阶段,社会资金运用效率较高,不存在剩余流动性,央行可以较容易地通过调整基础货币和货币乘数控制货币供给总量。这时货币供给的外生性较强,货币政策作用效果比较显著;而在经济衰退阶段,可选择的投资机会较少,流动性相对过剩,货币供给内生性增强,这时央行采取扩张性货币政策不能有效提高货币供给量,货币政策作用效果减弱。短期内虽然财政支出对企业投资会产生正向影响,但是负向影响要大于正向影响,也就是说财政政策对企业投资具有明显的挤出效应。     

Optimal Choice of a Proximate Monetary Target in an Open Economy*

This paper investigates the implications of hitting a monetary target (rate of interest or money supply) in an open economy. The technique of linear optimal control is applied to a small open economy of the Australian economy. A feature of the model is the interrelationship between the monetary and open sectors which complicates the use of monetary policy. Four optimal control experiments are reported in detail. The results indicate that we should aim for a money-supply target rather than an interest-rate target and that some assistance from fiscal policy should be provided to monetary policy in order to achieve this target.