服务经济的微观分析-基于生产与交易的分工均衡

与目前有关服务经济的研究不同,本文用一个新兴古典的佣金中间商1模型来分析交易服务的经济性质.主要结果表明:在市场分工中,交易服务是一种能够对产品的交易产生正网络效应的特殊商品;由中间商数量所决定的服务网络规模会影响市场一体化程度;制度效率和服务交易效率的改进将提高人均真实收入,当制度效率比服务交易效率的改进程度更大,或当服务业的劳动生产率提高,从生产部门向交易部门的劳动力迁移将增加;而改进的制度效率也将扩大产品和服务的市场容量;因而,经济增长呈现为以服务业发展为导向的增长.本文对于服务业缘何已成为发达国家的主导产业给出了一个微观解释,也为中国通过服务业来推动经济增长提供了一个理论视角.     

房地产市场高空置率现象及其博弈解释

中国的房地产市场存在着高隐性空置率的现象,本文利用博弈工具,依据双方叫价拍卖模型,构建房地产市场交易的不完全信息博弈模型。通过分析提出隐性空置率的产生和持续上涨主要是由于房地产开发商和房地产投资者即炒房者乐观供给预期过度,而消费者乐观消费预期不足所造成。并据此提出了相关的政策建议。     

Moving beyond the iceberg model: The role of trade relations in endogenizing transportation costs in computable general equilibrium models

Modeling trade and transportation costs is an essential part of multiregional or spatial computable general equilibrium models where interregional trade plays an important rolein shaping economic activity. The majority of such models use the iceberg trade cost approach where part of the produced output (representing the material costs of transportation) is assumed to melt away during transportation. There are a few models which employ a more refined approach with an explicit transportation sector providing transportation services which are then used to ship goods between locations. In this paper we show that this approach, although much more convenient than the iceberg approach, still lacks full usability due to the fact that markets, hence prices are defined at the regional level and as a result, transportation costs can not be endogenous at the trade relation level. Moreover, under regional level market clearing the iceberg and the more detailed approach are equivalent. We propose to refine the definition of market equilibrium and move it to the trade relation level. Using this approach we can gain full advantage of the explicit transport sector in the model with respect to trade cost evolution. We show through simulations that refining the way trade costs are modelled indeed gains new insights, and that moving the market definition to the trade relational level leads to qualitative changes in the effect of labor supply shocks on main model variables. The paper also presents a method to estimate a SAM by reallocating data from standard industries to a transportation sector which is then consistent with the model setup. This SAM can be used to calibrate the refined model with a detailed transportation sector.     

A spatial equilibrium analysis of trade policy reforms on the world wheat market

Since a few countries produce most of the world's wheat, and consumption is widespread across the world, wheat is one of the most commonly traded agricultural commodities. In recent years, the wheat market has been going through difficult phases as wheat prices are depressed. The fall in wheat prices is attributed to a supply glut and restrictive trade barriers. This study develops a large-scale spatial equilibrium trade model for wheat to analyse the effects of removing trade barriers (tariffs and subsidies) on each country's/region's price, supply, demand, trade, welfare, and bilateral trade flows. The results show that trade liberalization leads to an increase (decrease) in prices in the exporting (importing) countries. Production and exports increase in the exporting country, and consumption and imports increase in the importing country. Consequently, the volume of trade also increases. The welfare of most countries rises, and thus, world welfare also rises.     

Portfolio allocation and international risk sharing

Abstract We show that recent explanations of the consumption‐real exchange rate anomaly that rely on goods and financial market frictions are not robust to introducing just one additional international asset. When portfolios are selected optimally, international trade in two nominal bonds implies a consumption‐real exchange rate correlation that is too high compared with the data even when there are many shocks. Monetary policy specification plays a potentially important role for the degree of risk sharing provided by nominal bonds, both in the benchmark model with only tradable and non‐tradable sector supply shocks and also in the model that allows for news.     

A Model of Trade Liberalization in Services*

This paper develops an intra‐industry service trade model taking into account important features of services. We find that service trade liberalization between identical economies is welfare enhancing when the pre‐trade domestic market liberalization is limited. This holds regardless of the degree of trade liberalization and of the mode of supply. However, if the pre‐trade environment is characterized by a free‐entry equilibrium, then service trade liberalization is not necessarily welfare improving. It is welfare enhancing if the trade liberalization is full and the mode of supply is cross‐border. The gain from trade in our model comes from the improvement in service quality—better matching between consumers’ ideal varieties and firms’ product specificity. The implications for the mode of supply in service trade are also explored.     

An aggregate model of the Canadian labor market

The paper develops and estimates a small equilibrium model of the Canadian postwar labor market. The framework is imperfect competition in product and labor markets which, we argue, is forced upon us by the empirical fact that real wages do not on their own explain the business cycle. The framework incorporates on the supply side the effects of both unemployment benefits and the terms of trade. These variables, together with demand side effects, are then used to account Canadian unemployment. A pleasing feature of the model is that it is quite econometrically stable over the turbulent '80s.     

Innovation and international trade in technology

The international market for technology is growing rapidly relative to world GDP. To study the international technology market, I present a model of innovation and international trade in which inventors auction their technology in both domestic and foreign markets. There is monopolistic competition in differentiated products. International trade in technology has number of significant economic effects. Technology trade improves the quality of innovation by increasing the pool of R&D experiments from which the best technology is chosen. Technology trade increases the efficiency of invention while at the same time lowering the total number of inventors relative to the equilibrium without technology trade. Technology trade increases the volume of trade in goods. Technology trade increases product variety at the market equilibrium. Technology trade increases national income in each country and increases total gains from trade.     

计划生育、城市化与我国房地产市场的发展

计划生育由于影响人口的增长与人口结构的变化从而在一定时期推高房地产需求,但长期将缩减房地产需求;城市化由于影响人口的迁移从而长期地推高房地产需求,但其边际效应也将趋于递减。所以,随着时间的推移,房地产市场的供求关系向供过于求转变。而目前存在两个重要的加大房地产市场杠杆的因素：“打捆贷款”与“预售制”,他们在供不应求的时候通过加速供给的形成而使各方皆大欢喜,在供过于求时却放大了房地产市场的金融风险。     

AN EMPIRICAL STATIONARY EQUILIBRIUM SEARCH MODEL OF THE HOUSING MARKET*

This article specifies and estimates a computationally tractable stationary equilibrium model of the housing market. The model is rich and incorporates many of its unique features: buyers’ and sellers’ simultaneous search behavior, heterogeneity in their motivation to trade, transaction costs, a trading mechanism with posting prices and bargaining, and the availability of an exogenous advertising technology that induces endogenous matching. Estimation uses Maximum Likelihood methods and Multiple Listing Services data. The estimated model is used to simulate housing market outcomes when (a) the amount of information displayed on housing listings increases and (b) real estate agent’s commission rates change.     

Trade Imbalance and Domestic Market Competition Policy

This study investigates the effect of a country's suppression of competition in its market for nontradables. It assumes that the initial equilibrium is stationary and demonstrates that if competition is suppressed in a small country, the country's trade surplus increases in the short run. In the large country case, the same change creates an excess demand for future tradables and affects the relative price between present and future tradables. Using a two‐country model, the study shows that this price change redistributes real wealth from the country with a trade deficit to the country with a trade surplus.     

试析我国贸易余额波动的成因

本文对HoffmaisterandRold幃ｓ( 1 999,2 0 0 1 )与Prasad ( 1 999)两文中的模型进行了扩展 ,构造了一个结构向量自回归模型 (SVAR) ,用以探讨在 1 985— 2 0 0 0年间影响中国贸易余额的因素。文章分析了国外供给冲击、国内供给冲击、相对需求冲击及名义冲击等四类因素对贸易余额的影响 ,并注意区分了结构性和短期性因素。研究结果表明 :实际冲击 ① 是影响中国贸易余额的主要因素 ;人民币汇率存在一定程度的低估 ,但汇率变动对贸易余额影响不大。因此 ,货币性手段将不足以解决所谓的中国“贸易失衡”问题。     

Identifying terms of trade shocks in a developing country using a sign restrictions approach

Using annual data for Botswana from 1960 to 2012, we examine the responses of macroeconomic variables to four generalized positive terms of trade shocks – global demand, globalizing, sector-specific and global supply. A sign-restricted structural vector autoregression model with a penalty function is estimated to identify the four possible shocks. While positive global demand and globalization shocks are both expansionary, they have opposite effects on inflation. A positive commodity market specific shock dampens real GDP growth and is inflationary, suggesting a possible Dutch disease response. A negative global supply shock suppresses both output growth and inflation. All but the last shock leads to a significant declining interest rate. Monetary policy contraction is recommended for the first shock and expansion for the others.     

房地产市场中的噪声交易行为研究

房地产市场存在着明显的噪声交易行为。文章通过噪声交易模型研究,结合我国房地产市场的实际情况,发现因为噪声交易者的非理性行为而产生的正反馈效应导致房地产价格的剧烈波动和单方面持续上涨。     

The determinants of trade credit use: the case of the Tanzanian rice market

Most small businesses in the developing economies suffer from a lack of access to formal external finance. One important alternative source of finance for these entrepreneurs is trade credit. Applying a unique data-set containing data on specific trade relations between rice wholesalers and rice retailers in Tanzania, we analyse the determinants of trade credit demand and supply in this market, using a simultaneous equation modelling approach. The analysis shows that while the demand for trade credit is primarily determined by the extent to which retailers need external funds, supply is mainly driven by wholesalers’ incentives to attract and keep clients. Moreover, wholesalers’ willingness to provide credit increases if they have better information about the possibility that the customer will fail to repay the credit.     

Endogenous market power in an emissions trading scheme with auctioning

This paper contributes to the literature on market power in emissions permits markets, modeling an emissions trading scheme in which polluters differ with respect to their marginal abatement costs at the business-as-usual emissions. The polluters play a two-stage static complete information game in which their market power arises endogenously from their characteristics. In the first stage all polluters bid in an auction for the distribution of the fixed supply of permits issued by the regulator, and in the second stage they trade these permits in a secondary market. For compliance, they can also engage in abatement activity at a quadratic cost. Under the assumptions of the model, in equilibrium all polluters are successful in the auction. In the secondary market the low-cost emitters are net sellers and the high-cost emitters are net buyers. Moreover, the high-cost emitters are worse off as a result of the strategic behavior. In addition, the secondary market price is unambiguously above the auction clearing price. I find that the aggregate compliance cost when polluters act strategically increases in the heterogeneity of their marginal abatement costs at the business-as-usual emissions, but there exists a threshold of the fixed supply of permits above which strategic behavior is compliance cost-saving for the polluters. Finally, for a low enough variance of the marginal abatement cost at the business-as-usual emissions, strategic behavior is compliance cost-saving for the polluters, regardless of the level of the available supply of permits.     

SHORT-CUT ESTIMATES OF REAL INCOME

The United Nations International Comparisons Project (ICP) has conducted in-depth purchasing-power parity (PPP) studies of the so-called "benchmark" countries (of which there were 34 in the 1975 sample). In the absence of PPP studies of the rest of the countries in the world, the ICP team has constructed "short-cut" estimates of real income (that is, income converted from domestic currency to dollars at PPP) for the nonbenchmark countries. The idea of a "short-cut" procedure for estimating real income is to run a regression of real income on nominal income (that is, income converted from domestic currency to dollars at a market exchange rate) and other variables among the benchmark countries and then to use this regression to estimate real income for the nonbenchmark countries. The most recent ICP short-cut estimates have been based on regressions of real income on nominal income and the foreign trade ratio. The present study expands the list of candidate variables that might be included in a short-cut regression. The list includes educational attainments, the share of minerals in GDP, the trade balance, the growth of the money supply, tourist receipts, and the share of nontradables in GDP. The theory underlying the inclusion of each of these variables is discussed. Regressions are run with various combinations of these variables and some short-cut estimates of real income for 76 market economies are presented.     

市场邻近、供给邻近与中国制造业空间分布-基于中国省区间投入产出模型的分析

探究制造业空间分布的成因和机理是深入理解我国区域差异成因的基础。NEG理论认为由市场邻近和供给邻近所决定的贸易成本是制造业地理集中的主导因素之一。本文利用2002年中国省区间投入产出模型,计算了分省区两位码分类制造业部门的市场邻近与供给邻近,在区分部门特性和区域属性影响的基础上,验证了贸易成本及其他要素对制造业部门空间分布的影响。在现阶段的生产成本水平下,贸易成本是影响我国制造业部门空间分布的重要因素。     

中国股票市场的做市商制度探讨——基于信息不对称下市场参与者整体福利和交易成本的分析

在信息不对称框架下,参考并扩展了Copeland—Galai模型和Glosten—Milgrom模型,建立了市场参与者福利模型,讨论了做市商存在的证券市场和做市商不存在的证券市场中交易者的福利变化,得出社会总福利与证券真实价值无关,只与交易者对证券的私人价值和交易成本有关,交易者根据预期收益最大化原则并不能实现社会总福利最大化,在知情交易者控制价格的竞价市场中不知情交易者的福利劣于做市商存在的市场等结论。建议我国证券市场可以适当地引入做市商制度以益于保护不知情交易者的利益,维护证券市场的公平环境,提高交易所的竞争力。     

Does trade liberalization increase global pollution?

In this paper we consider a simple duopoly market in which a home firm and a foreign firm use labor to produce an identical product and supply it to the home market. Firms emit pollution as a by-product of production. We show conditions under which international trade liberalization decreases (increases) the global pollution.