入境旅游流与区域经济耦合协调度时空差异动态分析——基于全国31个省区1993—2011年面板数据

基于全国31个省区1993—2011年入境旅游流与区域经济系统面板数据,借鉴物理学领域耦合协调度模型,结合GIS分析对全国各省区入境旅游流与区域经济耦合协调程度进行历时性与共时性演变格局分析。研究发现:(1)入境旅游流与区域经济系统综合发展水平呈现波动发展上升态势且发展态势趋同,二者阶段之间及内部发展速度存在差异,入境旅游流发展水平阶段增长率较区域经济阶段增长率快,且阶段发展水平标准差极化态势较强;区域经济阶段标准差极化态势较弱。(2)各省区入境旅游流与区域经济耦合协调水平与区域经济发展趋势较为一致,耦合协调度阶段增长率均在20%以上,阶段标准差演变总体呈现上升态势,但增速在减小。(3)各省区耦合协调度格局实现了由严重失调至初级协调区间的跨越,总体向协调趋势继续演变,但阶段内部二者协调度类型又有所交叉。(4)各省区经济发展水平、地理区位、资源禀赋、区域政策等因素是造成区域耦合协调度格局及其差异的主要因素,但在不同阶段,上述因素所起的作用程度不同。研究结果对进一步丰富旅游流研究内容,明确各区域耦合协调度阶段发展特征及其差异性,耦合协调度格局层次性及演变趋势有一定理论意义。     

区域产学研创新系统耦合协调度评价及影响因素

通过构建区域产学研创新系统耦合协调度评价指标体系,利用耦合协调度模型和灰色关联分析法对2009—2014年全国31个省市企业、高校和科研机构创新子系统的创新发展水平、耦合协调度及影响因素进行测度与评价。结果表明:(1)研究期内,企业创新发展水平呈稳定的上升趋势,高校和科研机构则呈现波动上升和缓慢增长的趋势,并且一直滞后于企业。(2)产学研创新系统耦合协调度不断提高,但空间分异显著,东部沿海和长江沿岸地区处于高度耦合协调状态,东北和中部地区处于中度耦合协调状态,而西部地区则徘徊不前。(3)政府扶持程度、产学研联系强度、企业研发投入强度、企业规模、国有企业比重、区域经济发展水平、技术市场发展水平与区域产学研创新系统耦合协调发展具有较高的关联度,但对各区域的影响程度不同。     

区域科技创新系统与公共金融系统耦合协调评价研究

基于协同学理论构建科技创新系统与公共金融系统耦合协调度评价模型,对我国28个省级区域的耦合协调度进行评价。从横向比较来看,我国各省级区域科技创新系统与公共金融系统的耦合协调程度整体较低,各区域耦合协调水平存在较大差异,大部分区域公共金融滞后于科技创新的发展;从纵向比较来看,与2006年相比,2010年各省市耦合协调度有所提升,且东部、中部和西部均处于较高水平,说明科技金融的实施对科技创新发展具有积极作用。创新公共金融政策和工具,构建区域性公共金融平台,提供长期持续的公共金融支持,实现公共金融资源与科技资源投入匹配,是促进科技创新发展和完善科技金融体系的重要举措。     

区域科技创新系统与公共金融系统耦合协调评价研究——基于中国28个省级区域的实证分析

基于协同学理论构建科技创新系统与公共金融系统耦合协调度评价模型,对我国28个省级区域的耦合协调度进行评价。从横向比较来看,我国各省级区域科技创新系统与公共金融系统的耦合协调程度整体较低,各区域耦合协调水平存在较大差异,大部分区域公共金融滞后于科技创新的发展;从纵向比较来看,与2006年相比,2010年各省市耦合协调度有所提升,且东部、中部和西部均处于较高水平,说明科技金融的实施对科技创新发展具有积极作用。创新公共金融政策和工具,构建区域性公共金融平台,提供长期持续的公共金融支持,实现公共金融资源与科技资源投入匹配,是促进科技创新发展和完善科技金融体系的重要举措。     

社会保障与区域经济互动机理及协调度研究

本文立足于社会保障与区域经济协调发展的作用机理,构建了反映社会保障与经济发展两大系统的指标体系及耦合协调模型,然后采用2008年的指标数据,计算并评价了各省市社会保障与经济发展两大系统的协调性。研究表明：社会保障与经济发展水平呈现显著的正相关关系,经济发展水平高的省份,其社会保障水平也相对较高,表现出明显的从东部到中西部的梯度递减趋势;东部地区省份和大部分中部地区省份,社会保障水平滞后于经济发展水平,而西部地区则与之相反,社会保障水平高于其经济发展水平;从协调度所属等级来看,类似于＂橄榄球＂状,优质协调和严重失调的省份较少,基本协调和轻度失调的较多,且东部地区协调度明显优于中、西部地区。     

中国大陆区域经济差距变动趋势研究——来自30个省份的经验:1978年～2004年

文章基于1978年～2004年中国大陆地区30个省份的面板数据,利用泰尔熵值法,测算出三大地带之间、三大地带内部(包括东部、中部、西部地带内部省际差距)和大陆地区整体差距的熵值,根据其变动趋势分析结果显示,1978年以来,中国大陆地区的整体差距趋势经历着“V”型变化,不存在显著的收敛趋势。三大地带内部总体差距程度呈现大幅持续下降特征,其中东部和中部地带内部均呈现出显著的“俱乐部收敛”,但西部地带内部省际差距呈“V”型变化且不存在收敛趋势。三大地带之间的差距程度却呈现出大幅持续上升特征,而且对大陆区域整体差距的贡献率达73.55%,要缩小大陆区域整体差距,如何缩小三大地带之间的差距则是关键之处。     

中国碳减排整体成熟度及区域差异比较研究北大核心

运用灰色关联度分析方法和距离协调度模型,选取产值碳排放强度、能耗碳排放强度和产值能耗强度指标作为碳排放成熟度的基础测算指标,构建了碳减排发展度、协调度和协调发展度指数。基于中国30个省份2000—2019年的数据,从分省份和整体两方面对中国碳减排成熟度进行了综合评价。结果表明:各省份碳减排三个相对指数具有明显的区域差异,东部区域整体水平普遍高于东北部、中部和西部区域,西部区域碳减排相对指数平均水平较低,各省份相对发展度指数普遍高于相对协调度指数。中国碳减排整体发展度指数水平高于协调度水平和协调发展度水平,协调度指数对协调发展度指数具有较大影响力,整体协调发展度水平提升主要受制于产值能耗强度和能耗碳排放强度协调水平。针对研究结果,应优化区域经济结构,缩小区域经济差异;依靠技术创新驱动,提高能源利用效率;优化能源消费结构,推进低碳能源高效替代。     

我国三次产业融合发展的时空分异特征

以我国31个省份作为研究对象,综合运用熵权法、系统耦合协调度模型、探索性和空间回归模型等方法,研究了2005、2010和2015年三次产业融合发展水平的时空差异变化。研究表明:(1)我国三次产业融合发展的综合水平总体呈上升趋势,并且,东部、东北部、中部和西部四大经济地区也符合此整体趋势;相比之下,在我国一二三产业中,工业的发展水平最高,农业次之,第三产业最低。(2)从整体来看,虽然我国三次产业融合发展水平处于拮抗期且耦合协调度不高,但其大致呈上升趋势,尤其是处于勉强协调类型的省份数量由原来的北京、天津、上海3个省份增加至9个省份。(3)就空间角度而言,我国三次产业融合发展水平的耦合协调度具有明显的空间非均衡性,呈"东高—西低"格局,即东部沿海省份和东北地区的辽宁省耦合协调度较高,中部省份次之,而西部省份的耦合协调度最低且处于濒临失调状态。(4)从空间关联性来看,我国三次产业融合发展水平具有正相关性,并且产业融合发展水平的HH型主要集聚在东部环渤海地区和长三角地区。     

县域城镇化与人口回流耦合关系研究——基于湖南省88个县(市)数据的分析

在国家实施乡村振兴战略和县域人口回流趋势明显的背景下,实现人口回流与县域城镇化协调发展显得尤为重要。运用复杂系统理论探讨人口回流与县域城镇化相互作用机理,进而构建县域城镇化评价体系以及人口回流与县域城镇化耦合关系模型,以中部人口大省湖南省为例,运用耦合协调度模型、GIS技术对县域城镇化与人口回流水平以及两者之间的耦合协调度进行测度和空间可视化表达。研究表明:①县域城镇化是人口、产业、基础设施与公共服务各系统协调发展的过程,人口回流与县域城镇化之间存在复杂的交互关系;②湖南各县域整体上人口城镇化、产业发展相对滞后,人口回流与县域城镇化耦合协调度低,且空间分异特征明显。     

江苏省人口城镇化与能源消费CO_2排放耦合协调度时空格局及影响因素

基于耦合协调度模型、探索性数据分析和LISA时空跃迁分析,探究2006—2017年江苏省人口城镇化与能源消费CO_2排放耦合协调度的时空格局,并构建空间滞后面板Tobit模型,分析其影响因素。结果表明:(1)2006—2017年,江苏省人口城镇化与能源消费CO_2排放耦合协调度呈上升趋势,耦合协调度类型由良好耦合协调转化为优质耦合协调。耦合协调度存在明显的区域差异,总体呈东部西部中部、南部北部的趋势,空间格局较为稳定。耦合协调度绝对差异总体上呈减小趋势,相对差异与绝对差异变化趋势基本一致,空间集聚性呈波动变化趋势。(2)空间滞后面板Tobit模型结果表明:年末总人口与空间因素对耦合协调度具有显著的正向作用,人均GDP和碳排放强度对耦合协调度具有显著的负向作用,第二产业比例对耦合协调度具有负向作用,但不明显。     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

The greenhouse effect: Damages,costs and abatement

The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO₂ in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO₂ eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO₂ emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO₂ saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.     

SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY: TRACING THE FLOW OF BASIC RESEARCH THROUGH MANUFACTURING AND TRADE

This paper describes flows of basic research through the US economy during the late 20th century. In addition, the paper studies the effect of the flows on scientific papers in industries and fields. This article differs from others in its use of measures of science rather than technology. Together, its results present a picture of the structure of basic research flows in a modern, science-intensive economy. Basic research flows are large within petrochemicals and drugs, and within software and communications. Flows of chemistry, physics, and engineering are common throughout all industries – biology and medicine are almost confined to petrochemicals and drugs; and computer science is nearly as restricted to software and communications. In general, basic research flows are more concentrated within scientific fields than within industries. Our findings concerning the production of scientific papers indicate that the effect of a 1% change in academic R&D spillovers significantly exceeds that of industrial spillovers. In addition, within-field effects exceed effects between-fields, while within- and between-industry effects are roughly equal. It follows that scientific fields limit basic research flows more than industries do, perhaps because large firms implicitly span a range of industries.     

Bayesian estimation of duration models: An application of the multiperiod probit model

The multiperiod probit model is presented and Bayesian estimation using the Gibbs sampler with data augmentation is described. As an empirical illustration, the multiperiod probit model is then used to estimate a duration model using employment duration data for the Canadian province of New Brunswick. Bayesian estimation with unobserved heterogeneity is shown to be a simple extension of estimation of a duration model with no unobserved heterogeneity. More importantly, perhaps, some numerical problems encountered by other authors using Maximum Likelihood are avoided.I would like to thank M. Baker, G. Koop, A. Melino and D. Poirier for helpful comments and discussions. I would also like to thank M. Baker for providing his data.     

Scenarios and creativity: Thinking in new boxes

To be creative and make change happen, leaders must do more than simply ‘think outside the box’, as the traditional business manuals suggest, using the popular American expression. After all, the space outside the box is infinitely expansive. Moreover, there can be no guarantee that a solution to the problem will be found. The answer: ‘Think in new boxes.’ This requires developing the right new box; in other words, useful new models, a helpful new approach to a problem. That is the real art of practical creativity. This short article outlines the approach (Thinking in New Boxes) and its application to classic scenario planning with a few examples. The authors also present the ‘Expressway to Scenarios’, an approach that wins in impact and practicality what it loses in deep analysis, by having top executives involved in key steps.     

On the Role of Paradigms in Understanding Economic Globalization

Any adequate analysis of economic globalization necessarily requires fundamental understanding of the worldviews underlying the views expressed with respect to the nature and role of economic globalization. This paper is based on the premise that any worldview can be associated with one of the four basic paradigms: functionalist, interpretive, radical humanist, and radical structuralist. It argues that any view expressed with respect to economic globalization is based on one of the four paradigms or worldviews. It, therefore, discusses four views with respect to the nature and role of economic globalization which correspond to the four broad worldviews. The paper emphasizes that the four views expressed are equally scientific and informative; they look at the nature and role of economic globalization from a certain paradigmatic viewpoint. Emphasizing this example in the area of economic globalization, the paper concludes that there are opportunities for each paradigm to benefit from contributions coming from the other three paradigms.