1990年以来黑龙江省城市经济影响区范围变化研究

确定城市经济影响区域的范围是一项十分复杂的工作,在区域规划和城市规划中有着重要的理论和实际意义。在分析目前划分城市经济区影响范围方法的基础上,利用因子分析方法来计算城市的中心性强度,应用扩展后的城市断裂点理论和倍增加权Voronoi图相结合的GIS空间分析方法,分析了黑龙江省中心城市自1990年以来的城市经济影响区的范围变化。研究发现:黑龙江的城市经济区影响范围的整体格局未发生明显变化,但南部地区城市发展态势较好,影响范围有北扩趋势;大庆和牡丹江城市经济影响区的范围有所扩大,齐齐哈尔和佳木斯的影响范围相对缩小。     

我国中心城市服务业辐射力差异比较

引入地理经济学的断裂点模型和加权Voronoi图,在综合评判全国19个副省级城市服务业辐射能力的基础上,进行辐射区域的划分和比较,依据辐射面积、人口和经济上表现出的辐射作用差异,将其划分为全面领先型、辐射受限型、区域龙头型和次级核心型4大类型,并分别基于国家层面和城市层面提出各类城市提升服务业辐射能力的针对性建议。     

我国中心城市服务业辐射力差异比较——以19个副省级城市为例

引入地理经济学的断裂点模型和加权Voronoi图,在综合评判全国19个副省级城市服务业辐射能力的基础上,进行辐射区域的划分和比较,依据辐射面积、人口和经济上表现出的辐射作用差异,将其划分为全面领先型、辐射受限型、区域龙头型和次级核心型4大类型,并分别基于国家层面和城市层面提出各类城市提升服务业辐射能力的针对性建议。     

多层级核心—边缘城市空间影响范围研究——以广东和广西为例

首先建立反映城市综合实力的指标体系,然后运用因子分析法测算城市综合实力得分,并以此为基础构建加权Voronoi图,从市域、省域及跨省域等多层级核心—边缘视角研究广东与广西35个城市的经济影响区,得出从2002—2010年各城市经济影响范围的空间变化:实力弱—弱城市之间的空间吸引范围基本不变,强—弱之间有扩展趋势,强—强之间有缩小趋势,两广核心—边缘结构稳定。为进一步考虑城市等级差异性,对比分析广东与广西不同等级城市的经济腹地,研究发现,这种腹地结构是多层级、嵌套式的。理论上,各边缘区应依托其核心城市的发展,提高同核心城市之间的连通性,加强区域合作。     

皖江城市带城市经济联系与中心城市辐射范围分析

分析经济区内城市间经济联系不仅有利于引导城市的空间发展,而且有利于空间经济的合理组织。以皖江城市带为例,引入克鲁格曼指数、建成区面积、人口素质权重系数等指标修正了以往的引力模型,并利用城市间的日发车班次数据对修正模型进行了检验。在此基础上,利用修正模型确定了各城市的主要对外联系方向及联系强度,采用断裂点公式计算了中心城市的吸引范围。结果表明:①皖江城市带内各城市对外经济联系强度差异较大;②各城市的主要联系方向呈现中心城市指向性和地域相邻指向性特征;③合肥和芜湖为皖江城市带的两个经济中心城市,它们的对外吸引范围较为狭小。     

基于网络空间结构的长江经济带城市影响区划定

以长江经济带129个地级市为研究单元,运用城市综合实力指数模型测度其综合实力并划分实力等级,通过经济辐射场强模型和线性平均方向模型分别测度城市影响力的大小和方向,以揭示城市网络空间结构特征,最后采用加权Voronoi图模型划分城市影响区。研究发现:(1)长江经济带城市实力等级数量上呈"2+5+13+109"金字塔型,空间上核心、次核心、节点城市呈带状和点状集聚在长江干流沿线及干支流交汇处,边缘城市呈块状集聚在上中游,形成以上海为"火车头",以重庆、成都、武汉、苏州等为"动力车厢"的动车组式城市网络空间格局。(2)长江经济带形成了"3+1+n"城市网络空间结构,包括3大核心区、1条主轴线、n条辅轴线;在空间形态上呈"高联系集聚化、低联系分散化"的空间网络特征,且辐射力和受力具有"马太效应",但仍存在强辐射力城市周边"灯下黑"现象。(3)城市辐射力和受力方向与长江延展方向一致,分别逆、顺长江流向,说明存在城市影响力方向按长江流向的"传导效应"。(4)长江经济带可划分为"4+5"共9大影响区,包括长三角城市群核心区、长江中游城市群核心区等4个核心区及长三角城市群边缘区等5个边缘区,城市影响范围已打破省界,初步形成跨行政界线的流域经济空间格局。     

我国民航运输经济的区域划分

根据我国航空运输业自身的经济发展特征和规律对航空运输经济区域划分进行研究,不仅能够为制定合理的航空运输规划布局提供依据.同时也有助于认清我国民航运输业区域发展格局.为未来航空运输业投资规划和决策提供支持.文章以机场所在城市的经济特征、城市间的经济联系以及地理位置等为背景,尝试运用断裂点模型,和中心城市辐射的引力范围,以旅客吞吐量排名前十位的机场所在城市为中心进行民航运输经济区域划分,经过分析研究,划分出八大区域格局.     

浙江省滨海城镇带的中心—边界识别

浙江滨海城镇带是浙江经济、产业、城市化发展的核心区,主导未来浙江城镇体系的发展演化。基于加权Voronoi图像,结合城镇综合辐射指数计算与断裂点模型,构建城镇辐射区模型,划分浙江滨海城镇带辐射范围。研究表明:1滨海城镇带总体辐射能力较强,呈现出"三片四点"的空间格局,中心—边界体系结构清晰;2部分边界地区仍存在弱连绵区或单一强辐射扩张的现象,城镇空间发展不均衡。根据滨海城镇带中心—边界发展态势,提出滨海城镇带的后续空间演化模式"板块都市圈培育发展—分区城市群形成—滨海城市带形成"的构想。     

基于断裂点理论的皖江城市吸引范围研究

掌握城市带之间的吸引范围,有利于空间经济相互地合理组织与城市的空间发展。应用空间相互作用理论,城市规模分布等方法,可以分析皖江城市带各城市的综合实力,确定各自的吸引范围,讨论对南京对皖江城市带吸引范围的影响,阐述吸引范围同行政区域的关联性和差异,并对不同区域下的城市发展策略选择提供相关的对策建议。     

城市空间扩展理论综述

文章对城市空间及城市空间扩展作以简要概述,着重探讨了城市空间扩展的理论划分、扩展的方式以及扩展的动力机制。按照城市研究对象的不同划分,将城市空间扩展理论分为城市内部地域结构理论和城市区域发展理论。城市空间扩展在不同发展阶段表现出不同的扩展方式,概括起来主要有:单核同心扩展模式、轴向带状扩展模式、多极核生长扩展模式、大城市圈扩展模式四种,并从城市经济学等角度总结了几种城市空间扩展的动力机制。     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

Information infrastructure: Who builds broadband networks?

This paper examines the essential difference between the U.S. and Japan, when one considers information infrastructure. There are seven perception gaps between the U.S. and Japan concerning Information Infrastructure policies. These gaps must be understood in order to compare the countries' governmental policies in this area. In looking at the present circumstances, the essential question to answer concerns who is to build, own and operate the network(s) of the infrastructure. Liberalization is certain to be a central factor in the ongoing telecommunications debates. Now that customers have had a taste of the liberalized market-place, the movement toward more open markets will be difficult to stop. When considering options, it is necessary to pay close attention to standardized network access and the increasingly important role software plays. These issues are causing us to take a new approach to the traditional role played by regulators. They also force a closer look at the appropriate structure of utility companies. This paper addresses the above issues in hopes of stimulating dialog on the new telecommunications infrastructure paradigm.     

海岛地区产业演替及资源基础分析--以舟山群岛为例

改革开放以来,舟山市产业构成发生了显著变化,其经济发展过程可以划分为三个阶段。1992年前,是以产业结构渔业占绝对地位的单一结构阶段;1993—1998年,以旅游业为主的第三产业快速发展阶段;上世纪末以来,又进入了新一轮的经济发展时期,即工业产值比重快速增加阶段。根据海岛的自然资源基础和特点,在新世纪的经济发展过程中,舟山市应定位为生态型的港口旅游城市。以港口及临港工业为主导,以海岛旅游和海洋经济为特色,大力发展第二产业和第三产业。海岛地区的主导产业应体现海岛资源优势及区位优势,以集群性环保型产业为主。同时由于海岛地区淡水资源缺乏,主导产业也应着重选择低耗水型产业。     

风险视角下企业治理结构和研发创新——基于委托代理模型的研究

本文基于委托代理模型,从风险的视角研究企业治理结构对研发创新能力的影响。本文构建了一个包含创新活动的委托代理模型进行理论分析,利用动态DEA 模型测算创新能力,并使用2015-2018年我国上市制造业企业数据进行实证检验。实证部分检验了理论结论:委托代理问题不利于企业提升研发创新能力,且客观风险和主观风险厌恶会加剧该负面影响。基于此,本文认为上市企业应根据企业自身研发活动特点有针对性地改善企业治理结构,提出了适当延长代理人任期、推动股权激励计划、提升代理人的风险承担能力等建议。