CHALLENGES FOR FRANCE IN THE EMERGING INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT: A DYNAMIC ANALYSIS

France faces substantial challenges as the economic integration of Europe and the international economy continues. This article uses a dynamic aggregate translog cost function with inputs of capital, labor, and imports to examine the likely impact of closer world economic ties on France. This technique allows one to estimate short- as well as long-run direct price elasticities of demand for the inputs and cross-price elasticities for each respective input pair. The findings of the article include that (1) the French economy is becoming more sensitive to changes in import prices and (2) all the inputs are substitutes for one another. These results suggest that continuing international economic integration will present substantial challenges to the French economy. The short-run estimates of direct and cross-price elasticities are consistent with the Le Châtelier principle, except for the cross-price elasticities between capital and labor. Some possible reasons for the latter result are discussed in the article. (JEL F14, O10, O12)     

Capital market imperfections in a monetary growth model

Summary. We consider a monetary growth model essentially identical to that of Diamond (1965) and Tirole (1985), except that we explicitly model credit markets, a credit market friction, and an allocative function for financial intermediaries. These changes yield substantially different results than those obtained in more standard models. In particular, if any monetary steady state equilibria exist, there are generally two of them; one of these has a low capital stock and output level, and it is necessarily a saddle. The other steady state has a high capital stock and output level; either it is necessarily a sink, or its stability properties depend on the rate of money creation. It follows that monetary equilibria can be indeterminate, and nonconvergence phenomena can be observed. Increases in the rate of money creation reduce the capital stock in the high-capital-stock steady state. If the high-capital-stock steady state is not a sink for all rates of money growth, then increases in the rate of money growth can induce a Hopf bifurcation. Hence dynamical equilibria can display damped oscillation as a steady state equilibrium is approached, and limit cycles can be observed as well. In addition, in the latter case, high enough rates of inflation induce the kinds of “crises” noted by Bruno and Easterly (1995): when inflation is too high there are no equilibrium paths approaching the high-activity steady state. Received: November 18, 1995; revised version: March 26, 1996     

Optimal taxation and cross-price effects on labor supply: Estimates of the optimal gas tax

This study estimates parameters necessary to calculate the optimal second-best gasoline tax, most notably the cross-price elasticity between gasoline and leisure. Prior theoretical work indicates the importance of this elasticity, but despite this, almost none of the prior studies of commodity taxation (and none of the studies on second-best environmental regulation) actually estimate it. Using household data, we find that gasoline is a relative complement to leisure, and thus that the optimal gasoline tax is significantly higher than marginal damages-the opposite of the result suggested by the bulk of the prior literature. Indeed, even if there were no externalities at all associated with gasoline, the optimal tax rate would still be almost equal to the average gas tax rate in the U.S. Following this approach to estimate cross-price elasticities with leisure could strongly influence estimates of optimal rates for other important commodity or pollution taxes.     

The Italian Automotive Industry and Economies of Scale

This article investigates scale economies in the Italian automobile industry as well as substitution possibilities between inputs and direct and cross-price elasticities of factor demand, utilizing a cost function with capital, labor, domestic, and imported intermediate goods inputs. Continuing European integration makes economies of scale an important issue. The study results are consistent with economies of scale in the Italian motor vehicle industry, a particularly interesting finding because the Italian automotive industry consists primarily of one firm, Fiat. The estimated direct price elasticities suggest that capital is most responsive to own price changes, and estimated cross elasticities imply that all inputs are substitutes. (JEL D 2, L 6, O 1)     

International comparisons of expenditure patterns

The linear expenditure system (LES) of Stone (1954) is fitted to an eight-commodity classification of personal consumption expenditures in the national accounts data of 19 countries widely dispersed in the development spectrum. Cross-country comparison of the results reveals some discernible patterns in the variations of price and expenditure elasticities as a function of GNP per head. In particular, Food's own-price and expenditure elasticities are estimated to decline in absolute value as real GNP per head increases. Overall, own-price elasticities and cross-price elasticities with respect to food appear to account for about 80% of total price responsiveness in the fitted system.     

Fisheries Management Under Cyclical Population Dynamics

Cycles in environmental conditions (e.g., sea-surface temperature) directly impact fish growth. This paper extends the classical Gordon-Schaefer fishery model by replacing the constant growth rate with a cyclical growth rate. The optimal harvest rate is shown to fluctuate, but the cycle of the harvest rate lags the cycle of the biological growth function with the highest harvest rate occurring after biological conditions start to decline. Simulations contrast various fishing policies and illustrate the proclivity to crash a fishery if it is wrongfully managed as if there is a constant growth rate with i.i.d. environmental shocks. Finally, we show that small cyclical fluctuations in one species can result in large fluctuations in the optimal harvest rate of another species if the fish species are interlinked through predator-prey relationships.      

THE DEMAND FOR CIGARETTES IN TAIWAN: DOMESTIC VERSUS IMPORTED CIGARETTES

This paper uses annual time series data from Taiwan to empirically estimate the demand for cigarettes, in consideration of the import liberation of foreign cigarettes and of antismoking campaigns. The results indicate that the price elasticities for domestic and imported cigarettes are -0.6 and-1.1, respectively. The cross-price elasticities are 0.08 for domestic and 2.78 for imported cigarettes. The spread of cigarette health information has had a significantly negative effect on cigarette consumption. In addition, this study offers mild support to the argument that opening the market to imported cigarettes has resulted in significant increases in overall cigarette consumption. (JEL D12, 118)     

Costly structural change and optimal growth

Summary This paper studies the optimal growth of a developing economy that has a choice to expend a fixed amount of resource for a structural change that advances its production technology. It is shown that structural change is undertaken if capital stock is above a critical level. Economies undertaking structural change converge to a larger steady state and economies not undertaking structural change converge to a smaller steady state. The optimal policy correspondences and growth paths are characterized. The social optimum is shown implementable by a competitive equilibrium with lump-sum taxation.We are grateful to Francis Cheung, Carmen Menezes, Peter Mueser, Don Schilling, two anonymous referees and an associate editor for their valuable suggestions.     

The elasticity of demand for wagering in an unregulated market

The literature estimating the take-out rate (price) elasticity of horse race wagering has consistently found values far above one. The persistence of these apparently inefficiently high prices can be attributed to institutional factors of the US market where federal taxes are imposed on the total amount wagered, and not on the bookmakers’ revenue. By investigating all horse races in New Zealand from August 1993 to April 2009, our article is the first one to consider price setting for wagering in an unregulated market where taxes for a monopolistic betting agency are based on revenues. In such a setting, one would expect elasticities close to one, but in all econometric specifications, we find values well below one. We identify two reasons why higher prices could nevertheless reduce profits: cross price elasticities are negative and, due to the specific features of parimutuel betting, international competitors may only be attracted when take-out rates are above a critical threshold.     

Increasing returns,exhaustible resources,and optimal growth

It is shown that in an optimal growth model having inputs of flows from an exhaustible resource and services of reproducible capital, constant returns to scale is boundary separating paths of non-steady state development from those of steady development including asymptotic steady state growth. The absence of growth in output was observed by Dagsupta and Heal, and Solow for the case of non-increasing returns to scale.     

Export demand elasticities and productivity as determinants of growth: estimates for Mauritius

In this article, we combine the export led and import led growth hypotheses in a growth model in which the importation of foreign capital goods and the demand elasticities of own export products explain the growth opportunities and the technical progress of developing countries. This model, based on imported capital goods, uses Mauritius’ data on capital investment, employment, export partners’ growth and terms of trade to estimate price and income elasticities of export demand, total factor productivity growth and economies of scale. These elasticities are then used to assess how the growth in export partners’ income is converted into domestic growth. The implications of the presence of low or high export demand elasticities are discussed by relating them to various strands of trade and growth literature. Based on the results of this estimation, we also calculate steady state growth rates, engine and handmaiden effects of growth as well as the dynamic steady state gains from trade for this latecomer export economy. The implications of steady state results are also discussed in the light of the Mauritian employment and growth perspectives.     

Calibration of incomplete demand systems in quantitative analysis

An easily implemented and flexible calibration technique for partial demand systems is introduced, combining recent developments in incomplete demand systems and a set of restrictions conditioned on the available elasticity estimates. The technique accommodates various degrees of knowledge on cross-price elasticities, satisfies curvature restrictions, and allows the recovery of an exact welfare measure for policy analysis. The technique is illustrated with a partial demand system for food consumption in Korea for different states of knowledge on cross-price effects. The consumer welfare impact of food and agricultural trade liberalization is measured.     

Non-convex aggregate technology and optimal economic growth

This paper examines a model of optimal growth where the aggregation of two separate well behaved and concave production technologies exhibits a basic non-convexity. First, we consider the case of strictly concave utility function: when the discount rate is either low enough or high enough, there will be one steady state toward which the convergence of the optimal path is monotone and asymptotic. When the discount rate is in some intermediate range, we will find sufficient conditions for having either one equilibrium or multiple equilibria steady state. Depending to whether the initial capital per capita is located with respect to a critical value, we show that the optimal paths monotonically converge to one single appropriate equilibrium steady state. Second, we consider the case of linear utility and provide sufficient conditions to have either unique or two steady states when the discount rate is in some intermediate range. In this range, we give conditions under which the above critical value might not exist, and the economy attains one steady state in finite time, then stays at the other steady state afterward. P. Michel passed away when this research was completed. This paper is dedicated to his memory as a friend and colleague. N. M. Hung and C. Le Van thank the referee for vey helpful remarks and criticisms. They are grateful to Takashi Kamihigashi for very fruitful discussions. They also thank J.-F. Leclerc for editing the final version of this paper.     

The existence of factor substitution in the primary aluminium industry: A multivariate error-correction approach using Norwegian panel data

This paper presents an econometric analysis of factor demands in the Norwegian primary aluminium industry using annual plant-level panel data. The translog cost function approach is applied, and a multivariate error-correction model of the cost shares of labour, raw materials and electricity is estimated. Capital is assumed tobe quasi-fixed. The hypothesis of fixed input coefficients is rejected for this industry, but the estimated own-price and cross-price elasticities suggest that relative price variations have limited effect on conditional factor demands.     

Modelling time of day substitution using the second moments of demand

Time of day (TOD) rates are a commonly used method for peak load pricing of many services. Such services as; electricity, communications, transportation, shared computer facilities, and computer networks (i.e. the Internet), either use, or will use, some form of TOD pricing. However, TOD rates do not ensure a movement towards economic efficiency unless the patterns of TOD substitution are known. The model presented here provedes a method for estimating TOD substitution without the need for rate experiments that have proven to be both costly and limited by sample selection bias problems. This model employs the estimated second moment of demand to estimate a matrix of relative own- and cross-price elasticities and it can estimate elasticities even when there is no apparent TOD price variation. The low level of computations required for the estimates allows the application of a bootstrap procedure to estimate the covariance matrix of the elasticities. Two applications of this model are presented: a case of aggregate demand for computer services and a case of an individual household's electricity demand.     

Oil shocks and the dynamics of substitution adjustments of industrial fuels in the US

This paper investigates substitution among such alternate fuels as coal, natural gas, and electricity during the actual oil price increases of 1970s. These substitution adjustments are assumed to be dynamic and modelled by a partial adjustment structure. This dynamic structure is incorporated into a translog cost technology. Short- and long-run price elasticities are estimated by identifying inter- and intra-industry variations. The models are estimated with a sample of 88 pooled observations, including distillate and residual oils purchased by eleven 2-digit manufacturing groups (1974-81). Models are estimates are strictly negative. These own price elasticities range from (long-to short-run) –2.93 to –2.55 for distillate oil, –0.698 to – 1.53 for residual oil, –0.533 to 0.011 for coal, –0.235 to –0.213 for natural gas, to –0.888 to –0.845 for electricity. Estimastes of both short-run and long-run cross-price elasticities suggest that coal and electric energy are the prominent substitutes for fuel oils. While the relationship between the latter and natural gas remains largely complementary.     

Fiscal adjustment and labor market dynamics in an open economy

This paper studies the labor market effects of fiscal adjustment in a two-sector, three-good intertemporal framework. Key features of the model are an informal sector, minimum wages, unionized labor in the formal economy, imperfect labor mobility, and public production of intermediate inputs. “Luxury” and wait unemployment prevail in equilibrium. It is shown that if unions care sufficiently about employment, and if the degree of openness is high, an increase in the price of government services may reduce unemployment in the steady state. A similar result would hold in an efficiency-wage setting if the “disciplinary effect” of unemployment is sufficiently strong.     

The role of price risk in China’s agricultural and fisheries exports to the US

This article explores the effect of price risk on the US importers’ optimal allocation of agriculture imports between the major supplier, China, and other competing countries. We first modify a demand system to account for the impacts of own-price risk and cross-price risk, and then apply the model to 16 agricultural and fisheries commodities exported to the US. The estimation results show that importers are sensitive to price risks of 14 Chinese commodities. Comparisons between price risk–trade relations of agricultural and fisheries products and between trade effects of cross-price risk on Chinese goods and substitutes provide strong evidence for explaining the observed trade patterns. Our study highlights the importance of price stability in promoting international trade, especially from developing countries to developed countries.     

Cross-price effects in demand between exports and imports

This paper extends the Bickerdike-Robinson-Metzler elasticities model to include cross-price effects in demand between exports and imports, and compares the extension to the Kemp general-equilibrium model. In the extended elasticities model, positive cross-price influences impede adjustment; in the general-equilibrium model, however, such influences are part of the uniform gross-substitutability condition that assures stability. This difference arises because income and own-price effects for nontraded goods are constrained to zero in the elasticities model. Evidence of the demand for exports and imports for the United States indicates significant crossprice effects.     

Prices,poaching, and protein alternatives: An analysis of bushmeat consumption around Serengeti National Park,Tanzania

The consumption of meat from wild animals (or bushmeat) occurs throughout Africa and highlights the conflict between two distinct development goals: food security and biodiversity conservation. Growing human populations throughout the greater Serengeti ecosystem rely heavily on bushmeat as a source of protein, which places pressure on migratory wildlife populations. This paper uses unique data from protein consumption surveys from 131 households over 34 months in a generalizable empirical framework to estimate price, cross-price, and expenditure elasticities of protein sources, and analyze the potential economic effects of policies to mitigate bushmeat hunting and consumption. Results suggest that: (1) directly increasing the price of bushmeat through enforcement or other policies to reduce supply will have the most direct and largest effect of bushmeat consumption; (2) increasing income increases bushmeat consumption as well as consumption of other meat sources; (3) if surrounding fisheries experience a negative shock, or collapse, this will lead to a dramatic increase in bushmeat consumption. Overall, these results strongly indicate that policies to reduce bushmeat hunting while maintaining food security must be considered in a broad and comprehensive framework.